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[RocknRola]

Nah, we won't get numbers until NPD next month.

Roger that! Thanks for the info!

 

[N.Domixis]

Ps4 will peak next year with possible crash and RDR2 bundles.

 

[daveo42]

I'm holding out for that next gen loin.

 

[AZ Greg]

Do you feel this way every time someone makes a prediction and it turns out to be wrong?

If Microsoft takes November NPDs I'll do what I usually do and post "Congratulations, Microsoft" in that thread without qualifications. No shaming necessary.

It isn't simply being wrong about a prediction. It's the tone. Just go read the threads again.

 

[orochi91]

I'm not sure this is the wall of shame you were asking for, but here you go. I just compiled every November prediction in the October NPD thread. Here's what "GAF" had to say (I counted unique users):

Xbox will win November          6
It will be close either way     7
PS4 will win November           6

The belief that the consensus was an easy November win for PS4 is completely wrong.


"Couple of millions" is understating the case. The 2014 holidays alone cost Microsoft over $500m in lost revenue. This year, they're predicting the division to be down $1.3b from last year (though unlike 2014, some of this will be due to their phone business).

Is their an upside to this fire-sale approach that MS engages in almost every holiday this gen?

There has to be some silver lining that justifies all this lost revenue.

 

[Obliterator]

The big X factor for PS4 in general that is just a total unknown is Pro. How big were it's launch numbers? How much of PS4s suppressed sales numbers in the last several months were consumers waiting on Pro?

Man I can't wait till we get that number

 

[Boke1879]

Is their an upside to this fire-sale approach that MS engages in every holiday this gen?

There has to be some silver lining for them in all this lost revenue.

Market penetration. More people on their ecosystem spending money on software and digital goods.

 

[Banjo-Kazooie]

I dont get this.

I assume you think the PS4 will just slow down to a halt in the US.

I mean, the PS4 hasn't exactly been performing like the market leader the past few months in US has it...?

 

[Liabe Brave]

It isn't simply being wrong about a prediction. It's the tone. Just go read the threads again.

I've read the October thread again just now, and that tone is in your imagination. Here are some actual quotes from that thread:

I would say Sony has November in the bag, but considering how I have been dead wrong about every prediction I've made this year, from game sales to politics, I'll just sit back and watch this time.

I'd give PS4 a 50:50 chance for November. Even if PS4 beats XB1, I don't think it'll be by a whole lot due to the fact that PS4's SKU mix is not very broad.

Even if PS4 does come out on top, I doubt it'll be by much.

With PS4+PS4 pro, it's going to be a big win for the PS4 in Nov (with months of stacked pre orders), and a smaller but still sizeable win in Dec as well, is my guess.

In fact I predict that MS will take Nov and Dec.

Nothing there derogatory or dismissive. And please note that the selection above includes the most bullish Sony quote in the thread (but not the most positive Microsoft quote).

You are swinging at ghosts.

 

[AZ Greg]

I'm not sure this is the wall of shame you were asking for, but here you go. I just compiled every November prediction in the October NPD thread. Here's what "GAF" had to say (I counted unique users):

Xbox will win November          6
It will be close either way     7
PS4 will win November           6

The belief that the consensus was an easy November win for PS4 is completely wrong.

You're using the wrong thread. All the salt had already been let out by the time the NPD thread went up. This is the thread you want:

http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=1312050

And again, it's more the tone than the predictions. Stuff like this:

Don't call it a comeback. While sales are improving which is a great sign, the PS4 Pro will knock out the gap the XB1 has made back.

Shhhhhh, let people dream. SCORPIO!

Next month they will be going back to MAUs.

Those are just from page 1 of 17.

Edit: You're still using the wrong thread!

 

[ethomaz]

Damn, just put words in my posts.

I haven't commented in this thread once on who I think will sell more and it certainly wouldn't be because of the Xbox 360's performance in 2013. I didn't realize saying that PlayStation family didn't win until 2015 would mean I think Xbox One will win 2016.

So why did you replied to me saying that? My post was correct.

 

[Loudninja]

You're using the wrong thread. All the salt had already been let out by the time the NPD thread went up. This is the thread you want:

http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=1312050

And again, it's more the tone than the predictions. Stuff like this:







Those are just from page 1 of 17.

Edit: You're still using the wrong thread!

Ehh thats every topic people joke about the MAU stuff all the time.

 

[ethomaz]

That's not the first year of BF outside US, it's the third here in italy.

They had recorde breaking BF sales WW last year... of course the first years you will break record with more countries doing BF in world.

That is what I tried to say.

 

[Hugh Swank]

Is their an upside to this fire-sale approach that MS engages in almost every holiday this gen?

There has to be some silver lining that justifies all this lost revenue.

It's not how many razors you sell...it's how many blades you sell.

 

[mozfan12]

BF 1 looks to be a massive game this holiday season. Just smart to bundle it with the S while also having a mine craft bundle.

 

[orochi91]

Market penetration. More people on their ecosystem spending money on software and digital goods.

It's not how many razors you sell...it's how many blades you sell.

Touché.

 

[Movalpolos]

People already have PS4, why they would buy it another time? So they go and buy the other console, cheaper. You're welcome.

Yup. Or people switching back and forth. I did this alot when 360 and PS3 came out because I was young and didn't have much disposable income.

When something I really wanted to play came out on PS3, I would sell my 360 and get a PS3, then vice versa.

I think I switched between owning those 2 consoles about 6 times that whole gen.

 

[Unknown?]

It's not how many razors you sell...it's how many blades you sell.

It's mainly to stop the bleeding from the rest of the year and it doesn't always work like last year bilut it prevents the competition from getting too far ahead. It would snowball in PS4s favor if they didn't and they know it.

 

[Y2Kev]

Yes, welfare has a tone issue. Lol

 

[cakely]

It isn't simply being wrong about a prediction. It's the tone. Just go read the threads again.

I was in those threads, I read them, and I'm not seeing it.

If you're really interested in making a "wall of shame" for people that predicted a November Sony NPD win, I would say you're a little too invested.

 

[tiredheadcrab]

I went to my local Best Buy last night. Say a ton of Xbox one s and PS4 slims out on the floor. No Pros. I didnt even see them being stocked when I was there a few days ago. Looks like Sony wants the slim to be their big seller. PS4 pro's time will come next year to compete with Scorpio.

 

[Miles X]

I guess nobody has up to date LTD's of XB1 and PS4 in US? Or do but aren't allowed to share them?

 

[ethomaz]

I went to my local Best Buy last night. Say a ton of Xbox one s and PS4 slims out on the floor. No Pros. I didnt even see them being stocked when I was there a few days ago. Looks like Sony wants the slim to be their big seller. PS4 pro's time will come next year to compete with Scorpio.

Or maybe Sony can't ship enough Pro to stores... I mean the shipment could be not that big in US.

I predicted 2m Pro sold in US this year but I'm really thinking Sony won't ship that much.

 

[Guymelef]

It's not how many razors you sell...it's how many blades you sell.

Well, seems like they are not selling so many razors and that's why they only seem care about how many people is shaving their faces every week.

 

[onanie]

Is their an upside to this fire-sale approach that MS engages in almost every holiday this gen?

There has to be some silver lining that justifies all this lost revenue.

The upside is so that etta can have a good night's sleep.

 

[Toki767]

I went to my local Best Buy last night. Say a ton of Xbox one s and PS4 slims out on the floor. No Pros. I didnt even see them being stocked when I was there a few days ago. Looks like Sony wants the slim to be their big seller. PS4 pro's time will come next year to compete with Scorpio.

All of the Pros I saw were up on the walls from out of view.

 

[Liabe Brave]

You're using the wrong thread. All the salt had already been let out by the time the NPD thread went up. ...And again, it's more the tone than the predictions.

If you think Welfare is a haughty PS4 fanboy, you really aren't paying attention to what people say over time. But in any case, your claim of a GAF hatefest is completely contradicted by the very thread you've linked:

Congrats! They did a really good job making their hardware more attractive.

Well deserved. X1S is a great machine.

deserved

Well done, they've been doing most things right for a long time now.

XBOX ONE S IS A BEAST

Bundle wise Xbox One has been offering better choices. Wondering how Black Friday will be.

Crazy turn around.

Love my Xbox One S.

xbone is coming back

Good job MS. The momentum is real. But can they keep it up with Pro launching this month? Will they indeed have a 5 month streak?

Microsoft has proven pretty strong at recovering from fumbles throughout their presence in gaming.

I think it will serve them well in the long term.

They have made their platform super appelative. Deserved for sure.

Yea. Gonna make a bold bet and say XB1 wins November and December. Correct me if I'm wrong but all the BF deals I've seen of the PS4 are with UC4.

I think the BF1 XB1 bundles will make it do bonkers.

Impressive. They're making a play, I'll give them that. November and December is going to be a good fight though.

Deserved.

The S is a solid console. Cool to see it doing well.

And that's just page 1 of 17! Yes, there are also pro-PS4 comments in addition to the ones you posted. But they're vastly outnumbered by the congratulations and accolades. Your interpretation that the consensus somehow equates to vindictive persecution is paranoid and inaccurate.

Is their an upside to this fire-sale approach that MS engages in almost every holiday this gen?

There has to be some silver lining that justifies all this lost revenue.

The upside is that their gaming division hasn't slid into irrelevance. "Xbox" is still a strong brand in the US and UK years later, when that was definitely not a certain outcome around April 2014.

Also, the entry of users into the Live ecosystem does offset some of the opportunity losses (though not near all of them). There are other, more minor benefits like user introduction to Windows 10, MS Store, etc.

 

[ethomaz]

I guess nobody has up to date LTD's of XB1 and PS4 in US? Or do but aren't allowed to share them?

Up to July.

http://i.imgur.com/eWLV0q5.png

Add the others months and you get the actual picture.

PS. I'm lazy right now to do math... btw congrats Aqua for all the leaks.

 

[Primethius]

So much Welfare talk, what did I miss? :0

Leave Trunks alone!

 

[AZ Greg]

But in any case, your claim of a GAF hatefest is completely contradicted by the very thread you've linked:

And that's just page 1 of 17! Yes, there are also pro-PS4 comments in addition to the ones you posted. But they're vastly outnumbered by the congratulations and accolades.

Can you quote me where I said there was any kind of GAF hatefest or where I said the Xbone didn't get deserved congratulations and accolades? Didn't think so.

The only thing I was calling out were all the posters that downplayed prior month NPD wins by claiming the market was waiting for the Pro and that November, assuredly, is "when the king would return". Obviously there are rational posters in both camps, I wasn't referring to them.

 

[cripterion]

In France the Xbox section in Carrefour is like a no man's land. Even people that wanna get Fifa17 don't pick up the Xbox One S. The prices are more than reasonable but Playstation is just too big.

 

[ethomaz]

Can you quote me where I said there was any kind of GAF hatefest or where I said the Xbone didn't get deserved congratulations and accolades? Didn't think so.

The only thing I was calling out were all the posters that downplayed prior month NPD wins by claiming the market was waiting for the Pro and that November, assuredly, is "when the king would return". Obviously there are rational posters in both camps, I wasn't referring to them.

To be fair the prior months wins didn't do a lot to the situation of XB1.

2016 YTD
PS4 2.43m
XB1 2.22m

Both down YoY.

The PS4 wins was avg. 500k per year in US... for now this years doesn't look that different unless XB1 get a big win in Nov/Dec.

 

[Shpeshal Nick]

???

Microsoft usually takes the holidays.

Why? The trend have been favoring MS and Sony imo has been ass since the PS Pro reveal.

Huh? NPD threads for the last 4 months have been "Everyone is waiting for Pro". Almost everyone is expecting Sony to take November. Including myself.

If Microsoft somehow manages to take November, then the worm has officially turned in the US. It's the norm, no longer an exception.

 

[Welfare]

If you think Welfare is a haughty PS4 fanboy, you really aren't paying attention to what people say over time. But in any case, your claim of a GAF hatefest is completely contradicted by the very thread you've linked:

Honestly thought I would get called out as an Xbox fanboy before being a PlayStation fanboy. Have I finally made it big here on GAF?

 

[etta]

If you had been paying attention, you'd know Xbone fire sales have always occurred around the holidays.

Okay?
I was pointing out an observation, not taking a stance.

 

[mjc]

Huh? NPD threads for the last 4 months have been "Everyone is waiting for Pro". Almost everyone is expecting Sony to take November. Including myself.

If Microsoft somehow manages to take November, then the worm has officially turned in the US. It's the norm, no longer an exception.

You're correct, I've seen the same things you have. Sony shouldn't have pushed a PS4 slim alongside the Pro. It only serves to confuse the average buyer.

 

[orochi91]

Honestly thought I would get called out as an Xbox fanboy before being a PlayStation fanboy. Have I finally made it big here on GAF?

You're in the big leagues now fam

:V

Huh? NPD threads for the last 4 months have been "Everyone is waiting for Pro". Almost everyone is expecting Sony to take November. Including myself.

If Microsoft somehow manages to take November, then the worm has officially turned in the US. It's the norm, no longer an exception.

Agreed.

 

[SaberEdge]

When i look at the picture i see One + over 2 year old game for $250/230 or PS4 + 1/2 year old game for $250, so the price/value advantage Ms had the last BFs wasn't there.
On top of that Sony launched the Pro.
How could a loose not disappointing when all advantages this time where in Sony's corner?

That's what I'm seeing too. I have only a very passing interest in all of this sales talk, since I don't really have a dog in this fight. I don't own an Xbox One and while I do own a PS4 I'm not really so emotionally invested in it that I care whether it beats another console in sales. But yeah the bundles look pretty comparable in value and I'm not seeing how Microsoft is being more desperate as some are saying.

 

[Liabe Brave]

Up to July.

http://i.imgur.com/eWLV0q5.png

Add the others months and you get the actual picture.

PS. I'm lazy right now to do math... btw congrats Aqua for all the leaks.

Through October:
Xbox One: 13,336,000
PS4: 14,831,000

Gap: 1,496,000

 

[AZ Greg]

To be fair the prior months wins didn't do a lot to the situation of XB1.

2016 YTD
PS4 2.43m
XB1 2.22m

Both down YoY.

The PS4 wins was avg. 500k per year in US... for now this years doesn't look that different unless XB1 get a big win in Nov/Dec.

That's cool, but I wasn't talking about how big the month's wins were or YTD.

 

[ethomaz]

That's cool, but I wasn't talking about how big the month's wins were or YTD.

But that is what most replies you say it is against MS are talking about in that thread.

 

[lOTl]

As much as I would liked to have told mom to get my bro a PS4 from Costco, it was bundled with Uncharted and it's doubtful he wants his kids to see that.
So Xbox one S with Minecraft it is....

/one data point

 

[specdot]

So much posturing about winning months, while Sony is still leading by 1.5 million in the US and tens of millions worldwide is treated as an afterthought.

Shhh! The Xbone gaffers need this W. Especially Etta. =p
I fully expect the Xbox One S to take November and December though. After that, it's a toss up.

 

[Shpeshal Nick]

That's cool, but I wasn't talking about how big the month's wins were or YTD.

I know what you're referring to and those that are countering you are quoting congratulatory posts, not sales prediction posts.

I assume you're referring to the sales predictions? Which are resoundingly is Sony's favour. Almost everyone outside a handful are expecting Sony to take November. But we're talking the Xbox PR threads, which have been coming before the official NPD thread. Those threads are absolutely chock full of "Everyone is waiting for Pro".

 

[Primethius]

So many people confident that PS4 will win November and no one is taking my bet :/

When XB1 wins November, I'm rubbing it in everyone's faces! 😆

 

[Mushroomer25]

It's interesting how Microsoft seems to have scooped Playstation on the 4K advantage, almost by accident. They've got one new SKU on shelves, pushing it as the best 4K media device (which it is) - and that seems to have been enough to outsell the PS4 Pro. A console explicitly built for '4K gaming'.

I'm curious what the Scorpio does to this dynamic. On paper, it's offering a bigger jump in features than the PS4->Pro. VR support, native 4K, high processing power, etc. All as launch XBox ONE/PS4 buyers may be looking to upgrade their TVs. But this month's NPD might indicate that consumers aren't buying into the mid-grade console upgrade pattern.

 

[blakep267]

So many people confident that PS4 will win November and no one is taking my bet :/

When XB1 wins November, I'm rubbing it in everyone's faces! 😆

I'm just really interested in how the Pro does. Like would 400k pros be enough to close the gap between the PS4 slim and Xbox one S? I can't see the pro doing a ton more than that( I also don't really care about it's Amazon rank)

 

[Shpeshal Nick]

So many people confident that PS4 will win November and no one is taking my bet :/

When XB1 wins November, I'm rubbing it in everyone's faces! 😆

I still expect Sony will take November because they have new hardware that released. Even if th final margin is small, they SHOULD win.

If Microsoft takes it, then yeah, those few people that predicted Microsoft will take every month leading into Scorpio are probably right. Fire sale or not, people have to WANT something to buy it. So despite the clearance pricing, people obviously WANT an Xbox One or they wouldn't be buying them.

Simply whittling the thesis of your (not you) post down to "fire sales" is being way too simplistic and basically, ignorant. Just because a kettle is being cleared in a fire sale, it doesn't mean I'm going to buy one if I don't want one.

 

[mrklaw]

It's interesting how Microsoft seems to have scooped Playstation on the 4K advantage, almost by accident. They've got one new SKU on shelves, pushing it as the best 4K media device (which it is) - and that seems to have been enough to outsell the PS4 Pro. A console explicitly built for '4K gaming'.

I'm curious what the Scorpio does to this dynamic. On paper, it's offering a bigger jump in features than the PS4->Pro. VR support, native 4K, high processing power, etc. All as launch XBox ONE/PS4 buyers may be looking to upgrade their TVs. But this month's NPD might indicate that consumers aren't buying into the mid-grade console upgrade pattern.

The on,y real benefit of the S for 4K is the bluray player. The streaming apps in 4K are also on the pro, but more importantly also already built into pretty much all 4K TVs

 

[Unknown?]

As much as I would liked to have told mom to get my bro a PS4 from Costco, it was bundled with Uncharted and it's doubtful he wants his kids to see that.
So Xbox one S with Minecraft it is....

/one data point

Lol so you told them to get the least kid friendly console of the bunch? A lot of places had Ratchet & Clank for free with the PS4. Not to mention Minecraft is also on it along with a lot of other kid friendly games from years past(LBP3, Tearaway, DQ Builders, etc)