DriftingSpirit
Member
Fully agreed.
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Put It In Your MAU-th: Pork Loin leading PS4/Xbone in NA
- Thread starter e-gamer
- Start date
Fabtacular
Member
I'll say this: If Xbox takes November it's a disaster for the Pro, and will be a huge red flag for MS's Scorpio and "no more console generations" strategy.
I said on here before the start of the gen that Sony's plan for NA would be to get par or slightly larger market share than MS, and that hitting their internal sales targets would be more important than month-to-month headlines.
When Sony lost Nov 14 AND sold less than 1000k units, they were extremely aggressive on price in December, sold about 1.2mn and post holiday PR was that they were happy with sales.
Given their increased annual target of 20mn WW across Base & Pro models, my guess is their target for NA is 2.5-3m across Nov-Dec. If they go with some aggressive additional deals or price cuts in Dec that might indicate they didn't hit the Nov target.
When Sony lost Nov 14 AND sold less than 1000k units, they were extremely aggressive on price in December, sold about 1.2mn and post holiday PR was that they were happy with sales.
Given their increased annual target of 20mn WW across Base & Pro models, my guess is their target for NA is 2.5-3m across Nov-Dec. If they go with some aggressive additional deals or price cuts in Dec that might indicate they didn't hit the Nov target.
Scorpio is going to be a clear upgrade over the One S though. The problem with the Pro is that it's not much of a worthwhile upgrade. I think MS is doing it the right way.
Shpeshal Nick
aka Collingwood
That's more my thinking. Pro not selling all that great actually justifies Microsoft's decision more.
If Pro winds up selling really well, it could mean Microsoft have miscalculated the whole thing.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Why would it indicate a miscalculation? Wouldn't that be proof that the idea can work?
Unknown?
Member
No it won't it will still be limited by the One S and most likely will have the same problems. I.E. developers decide how to use the power so it will vary on a game by game basis JUST like the Pro. By then developers will have had time with the Pro so first gen Scorpio games won't be that big of a difference between second gen Pro games. I think people are just romanticizing the Scorpio rather than looking at reality.
I'm thinking Microsoft will be like Sony in the last gen. I reckon Xbox one will probably overtake Sony in sales by the end of the gen with Scorpio. Close call though.
I agree, it's pretty nuts that Xbox pulled the turn around that it did this gen. Great consumer support with the backwards compatibility, and putting out a much more powerful machine than ps4pro. That being said, I'm firmly with Sony this gen, even if they are getting absolutely spanked by Microsoft with sales and product offerings; there aren't much difference in titles offered. Not going to jump ship mid-gen.
I agree, it's pretty nuts that Xbox pulled the turn around that it did this gen. Great consumer support with the backwards compatibility, and putting out a much more powerful machine than ps4pro. That being said, I'm firmly with Sony this gen, even if they are getting absolutely spanked by Microsoft with sales and product offerings; there aren't much difference in titles offered. Not going to jump ship mid-gen.
Eh. The Pro is a definite upgrade over the base model and it's clear even on a 1080p set.
I'll gladly eat crow but if you're expecting a full generational difference in the scorpio I think many will be disappointed. Not because it can't do it but because like the Pro the Scorpio and the software will still be married to the base Xbox 1.
That said. I'm not sure why people are expecting the Pro to damn near overtake the Slim sales. It's clear while Sony wants this thing to be successful at least in the short term the Slim will be the main driver. I mean that's obvious. The Slim has all the Black Friday deals. The pro is being sold at retail price.
If anything. Next year you'll probably start to see a huge push for pro as far as bundles go. Maybe starting with Horizon, Or Destiny, Red Dead or battlefront.
Liabe Brave
Member
Well, I went through the entire thread, and here's what I saw (again counting unique users):
Code:
Xbox will win November 17
It will be close either way 8
PS4 will win November 25This is not the "resounding" disparity of "almost everyone" you initially claimed. But yes, a majority of folks did predict a Sony win. Many of them--but not all--thought Pro would be key. But exactly what is your issue with that? They're accounting for a major new market factor in their prediction; that's good practice. Was it awful when people this summer predicted Xbox One S would help Microsoft win August?
Perhaps my criticism isn't clear either, so I apologize. Here's my point: why is it "shitting up" a thread to make a prediction? Especially one based on a real event, with as-yet unknown consequences, that might even end up making their statement true? Someone else's confidence is a fundamentally bad reason to dislike them. Distrust their analysis, sure...but shame them?
pixelation
Member
Well see... Xbox almost always takes November it ain't nothing new. Me and other posters came and pretty much just said that. MS guys get upset that they "can't celebrate just yet" and make witty remarks implying that if MS takes December again then there will be another excuse for PS not taking it.
The thing is that even if XB takes and keeps the US for itself it doesn't change much worldwide speaking in the long run.
CosmicQueso
Member
Christ.
DasPenguin
Member
I don't think this was identified as a NPD thread in the title. However I would expect people bring it up because the industry is a lot bigger than just one region.
I expect Xbone to take the month. Last years sales were an exception I think. Lower prices and bundles always seem to determine the winner at this time of year. Has MS been selling Xbox Ones at a loss this whole gen? I know they must be doing it here in Europe. It is such a one horse race on this side of the pond.
Mihael Mello Keehl
Banned
Eh not going to happen without a WW strategy. PS4 currently has about a 1.5 million lead in the US alone. That would take at the very least a year to make up.
Yup. They've always wanted to compete. It's interesting and fun for us to talk about NPD and who's gonna win, but at the end of the day for these companies it's about money and revenue. Which I'm sure Sony is hitting. My question is. How is that BF1 bundle doing? I'm sure MS paid a pretty penny for marketing. Last month the bundle didn't do all that great and the game only sold a few thousand more copies on Xb1 than on PS4. If that bundle doesn't at least make up the ROI. That's money wasted imo.
I've said it a few times, but people will use any rationale to push their dislike for these mid console refreshes.
Shpeshal Nick
aka Collingwood
PS4 to Pro is a smallish upgrade
Xbox One to Scorpio is a pretty damn big upgrade
Microsoft's strategy would be more costly, while providing somewhat similar visual improvements to the casual eye. Then they've also given up a year of sales to the Pro as well when they could have gone a cheaper upgrade NOW and still achieved a similar outcome.
Shpeshal Nick
aka Collingwood
I don't have an issue. I was one of those 25.
I was pointing out what I thought AZ Greg was getting at.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Perhaps a bigger upgrade was more suitable for MS' long term plans and how the Scorpio fits into it. These mid-gen upgrades are looked at in isolation but I think the impact they have on the next generation is what Sony and MS are looking into.
Even with what you're saying, it would still mean the Scorpio has the potential to succeed if MS goes through with their plan correctly.
Thebeardofknowledge
Banned
You can't seem to handle the truth can you ?
schwabdizzle
Banned
I bought my niece and nephew a Minecraft edition Xbox One For Christmas on Black Friday. I would have got them a PlayStation 4, but I feel Sony did a bad job making kid friendly bundles this holiday season. I still am a PS4 user myself, but I feel so he could have done a better job reaching out to the younger kids and getting them that console in their hands. This is all my personal opinion of course.
OTOH, we'd be waiting for Dec since there is no pro preorders and launch to give ps4 a win.
Unknown?
Member
The difference between Pro and Scorpio is smaller than PS4 to Pro. So it may be a big leap from the OG Xbox but if people really think the Pro is a small upgrade they won't be impressed when comparing Scorpio games to games on the Pro.
Shpeshal Nick
aka Collingwood
Huh? Isn't that kinda what i JUST said?
The Artisan
Member
Fixed (maybe)
Blam
Member
I honestly don't think the Pro is selling well, because of how little of a boost it really is.
Scorpio, is most likely going to be a fucking insane improvement. Probably warranting a new console price? Maybe at a loss who knows.
Liabe Brave
Member
It's true you never railed against the predictors, so I apologize for lumping you in with that.
But I hope you see you were very wrong in what you did claim, which is that the thread evinced a near-universal belief in PS4 winning November.
Unknown?
Member
Yeah I was agreeing with what you said. Should have made that more clear, oops!
Didn't a bunch of people say for months 'those MS numbers are good, but people are just waiting for the Pro' or am i misremembering?
Regardless, this season will be dictated by the cheapest and best bundles. An area Microsoft has a much higher leg up on than Sony does with their single bundle.
Regardless, this season will be dictated by the cheapest and best bundles. An area Microsoft has a much higher leg up on than Sony does with their single bundle.
BladeoftheImmortal
Member
How many best buys vs targets are there?
ethomaz
Banned
Pro is a little boost but Scorpio is a huge boost???
The difference between both will probably be smaller than XB1 vs PS4... both at end will be hold by base models.
thats a lot of biased assumptions
Unknown?
Member
I'd say it's just realistic and it's not any different than assuming the opposite like I quoted. I just think people will get Nataled again if they expect a console with the same limitations to be much different.
Maintenance
Member
Wouldn't mind if the Pro and the Scorpio in the future bombed, screw home console upgrades.
Google says ~1k Best Buys vs. ~1.8k Targets
But that number is kinda irrelevant unless we know the minimum stock of systems for each.
Options suck
Welfare
Member
In addition to this, Best Buy, Target, and Walmart make up over 50% of the video game market. Walmart is most likely #2 (GameStop #1) but I don't know if Target or Best Buy is higher than the other.
I think this would be a silly takeaway.
The Scorpio is aimed at a very specific audience. It isn't meant to move extraordinary volume. It's to tap into the market that is willing to pay a premium for top of the line tech (as top of the line as you'll get in a console).
The PS4 Pro is, believe it or not, aimed at a similar audience. I still don't understand why people thought this would be a hit outside of people who already own PS4s. It's an upgrade for people who just have to have the best thing. There was not some army of people who skipped out on the PS4, skipped out on the PS4 slim, but were suddenly sold on a $400 machine.
If Sony and MS both have realistic expectations for who would buy these upgrades, I don't think there will be alarm or disappointment.
I actually did take your bet, but you never answered... Annnnd now you're banned.
/lesigh.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=225200358&postcount=453
DriftingSpirit
Member
lol
Hawk269
Member
We don't know enough about Scorpio to be making claims like yours that the difference between Pro and Scorpio is smaller.
SmoothRunningGun
Member
Dat Loin tho
Shpeshal Nick
aka Collingwood
I think the S shows that Scorpio may not require a dedicated patch for all games to show some kind of improvement. Obviously many will (I assume).
But I could be wrong there. But the S right now improves some games automatically without any kind of patch required. The Pro despite near identical architecture requires a patch.
Poimandres
Member
Bwahahahaha! 3 years into a generation with a 2:1 sales ratio... it's not going to happen. Maybe in the US. Maybe.
Shpeshal Nick
aka Collingwood
I thought I only said majority. I didn't think I said almost universal. Maybe I'm wrong.
We were talking the difference between PS4 to Pro bring smaller than Xbox One to Scorpio.
RedAssedApe
Banned
prepare to be disappointed
I think is the exact opposite, if pro fail ms have to make damn sure that their marketing msg is absolutely clear that they are going generation route and also need to convince everyone that there won't be another xbox in two years if ps5 launch. That is not easy to convince costomers and not really great for anyone if every game have to run on xbone. The system is already very weak since day 1.
That's akin to praising Ms for starting weaker and waiting longer for their upgrade than the competition though...
Matter of perspective I guess. #shrug
I heard the first releases have been downgraded anyway.
LiveFromKyoto
Member
There's no way in hell, unless you mean only in the US/UK.