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[oti]

Some of this is, what?

- Scorpio won't be $400, unless MS wants to pay A LOT for every sale. Maybe if they want to give the whole brand a last shot but even then, I don't think so.

- There are 800 Pokémon and Pokémon GO only has 150 something at the moment. If people have lost their interest once the updates hit, that's another story.

- TES VI LOL

But don't forget people, Pachter wants companies to make as much money as possible. That's his job and I'm sure he's good at it. He is right that free-to-start is a strategic mistake when it comes to unleashing the full potential of Nintendo IP on mobile but it's a mistake Nintendo chose to make and I'm glad they did.

 

[Nugg]

The next Elder Scrolls installment comes out

Pete Hines in august

fyi, the elder scrolls vi isn't in development. we simply said we would make it eventually. don't want people to be misled

 

[Count of Monte Sawed-Off]

Maybe he knows something we don't, but I don't see any way a new Elder Scrolls comes out in 2017. They've said they haven't really started on it and are working on two other IPs.

 

[Spyder_Monkey]

Lol at his graded predictions, the confirmation bias is real.

 

[geordiemp]

In regards to Cod, even if they go back to MW or anything without exos the game is done as the lootcrates has really destroyed it imo.

Agree with this, it was not the infinite warefare that killed interest, it was loot crates for performance enhancing stuff.

Which IW doubled down on giving perks to guns, and those for COD points.

Back on topic, Scorpio will be more than $ 399 i bet.

 

[KingdomHeartsFan]

Elder Scrolls 6 wasn't in development a few months ago there is no way it comes out next year.

 

[Barry Burton]

I can't imagine there being a new Elder Scrolls in 2017 unless it's not being made at BGS (ala New Vegas).

 

[Zedark]

8.) The next Elder Scrolls installment comes out, the next Half Life installment does not. I think Bethesda is close, and think that Valve is not. However, I'd like to be half wrong on this one.

I'm pretty sure he is going to be half wrong on this one, since I see no way in hell that TESVI will be unveiled. Todd Howard said (for what it's worth) that he wants to do different projects first, so TESVI is a pipe dream sadly.

 

[Sanctuary]

At this point, is the only reason to bother with this guy to see how utterly wrong he will be about almost everything?

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

If there's one thing that's true in this world, it's that Elder Scrolls VI is in development. There's literally no possible way that they aren't working on it.

 

[Badlucktroll]

My body is ready for TES VI: Valenwood

Make it happen Bethesda

I thought it was rumored to be Argonia/Blackmarsh.

 

[IcyRhythms]

Maybe he knows something we don't, but I don't see any way a new Elder Scrolls comes out in 2017. They've said they haven't really started on it and are working on two other IPs.

I'm pretty sure they've confirmed the opposite. I think Todd Howard himself said "of course we're working on a new ES game at this last E3"

http://www.pcgamer.com/the-elder-scrolls-6-is-in-development-todd-howard-confirms/

There we go

“That's kind of like the elephant in the room, always, when we talk about anything, and I think it's good to tell our fans in these moments, yes, of course we are [making Elder Scrolls 6],” Howard said. “It's something we love."

 

[Y2Kev]

Why do you guys believe dumb crap like "it's not in development". It might not be but that was said two minutes before they announced marvel vs capcom 4. Hines' job isn't to tell you the truth.

 

[Dr.Acula]

Pretty bold grading oneself on how the AssCreed prediction played out before it plays out.

 

[LordKano]

Why do you guys believe dumb crap like "it's not in development". It might not be but that was said two minutes before they announced marvel vs capcom 4. Hines' job isn't to tell you the truth.

Quoting myself from this thread :

Actually, it wasn't like that. Eventhubs (I think it was them) just reposted a years-old interview with more recent dates for more click.s.

 

[IcyRhythms]

Why do you guys believe dumb crap like "it's not in development". It might not be but that was said two minutes before they announced marvel vs capcom 4. Hines' job isn't to tell you the truth.

Pretty much this. Their job is to lie to you. Tell you it's not coming. Tell you it's a long way off. Whether it's true or not isn't really our business until they want to officially confirm.

 

[Zedark]

Why do you guys believe dumb crap like "it's not in development". It might not be but that was said two minutes before they announced marvel vs capcom 4. Hines' job isn't to tell you the truth.

For what it's worth, Todd Howard has said that his plans for TESVI are not possible on current gen hardware. I mean, for all we know he could be bullshitting us to hell and back, but why would we go to such lengths?

 

[Nirolak]

Why do you guys believe dumb crap like "it's not in development". It might not be but that was said two minutes before they announced marvel vs capcom 4. Hines' job isn't to tell you the truth.

I think we can look at Bethesda's studio structure and come to some easy conclusions though.

The entirety of Bethesda Game Studios when Fallout 4 launched was 108 developers, essentially all of whom had been working on Fallout 4 since Skyrim's DLC wrapped up (and some of them a bit earlier).

While they started a new studio in Montreal, much of their staff there is focused on mobile games.

If we feel Bethesda is lying about their next AAA console project, then a 2017 TES6 release would be a two year development cycle for an open world WRPG. This seems highly improbable in an era where the average development cycle of such products is 3-4 years.

If we feel Bethesda is not lying about their next AAA console project, and is working on a new IP, this would eat up 95%+ of their AAA console staff, and they would not be able to ship TES6 until 3-4 years after that game releases.

This isn't like Capcom where they have 3000 staff sitting around making games. It's a very small, effectively single team studio working on huge projects.

 

[Y2Kev]

I don't believe it's coming out in 2017. I believe it's in development.

 

[z1ggy]

I dont think Scorpio will release in 2017.

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

For what it's worth, Todd Howard has said that his plans for TESVI are not possible on current gen hardware. I mean, for all we know he could be bullshitting us to hell and back, but why would we go to such lengths?

Of course he's bullshitting to an extent. There's no way Bethesda doesn't capitalize on the install base of this gen's consoles, especially when there's more powerful versions of both.

 

[JoeM86]

5.) Pokemon Go drops out of the top 10 in every country with a population greater than 20 million. The game was fun, but there's only so many Pokemon to capture.

But there are 802 Pokémon and currently only 159 are available. (Not even that due to lack of Legends)

 

[Count of Monte Sawed-Off]

I'm pretty sure they've confirmed the opposite. I think Todd Howard himself said "of course we're working on a new ES game at this last E3"

http://www.pcgamer.com/the-elder-scrolls-6-is-in-development-todd-howard-confirms/

There we go

They've probably done minor preliminary work on it, some concept art and other things, but I doubt there's much, if any, active development. Unless the other two IP thing is bullshit.

Either way, two years between Fallout 4 and Elder Scrolls 6 would be too fast for a relatively small studio like Bethesda. Unless someone else is developing.

 

[IcyRhythms]

For what it's worth, Todd Howard has said that his plans for TESVI are not possible on current gen hardware. I mean, for all we know he could be bullshitting us to hell and back, but why would we go to such lengths?

This either means one of two things or both. They're going with a completely new engine for ESVI, or it's just more Gamebryo and he's trying to make it sound impossible/very ambitious for marketing reasons.

 

[oti]

I don't believe it's coming out in 2017. I believe it's in development.

Of course it is. Someone drawing a tree should count as development, shouldn't it?

 

[RedAssedApe]

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/assassins_creed

Gonna have trouble making back that budget.

Doesn't mean much. Look at the resident evil movies. They should have moved away from rogue one though.

 

[demigod]

A Bethesda PR outright said that TESVI isn't in development, how could they have it launching in 2017 then ?

Am I more informed by browsing neogaf than a professionnal analyst who does that for a living ?

If you believe everything PR tells you, i have lots of bridges to sell to you.

 

[inky]

I don't think there will be a new TES in 2017, maybe an announcement, but I imagine Bethesda would want a good full year between announcing it and shipping it.

Predicting that Half Life 3 isn't happening has to be the trolliest, easiest prediction ever.

 

[Nirolak]

I don't believe it's coming out in 2017. I believe it's in development.

I think he explains it pretty well in the Glixel interview: http://www.glixel.com/interviews/sk...alks-switch-vr-and-elder-scrolls-wait-w451761

Glixel: You're making a new Elder Scrolls game, but you're not going to tell us when. We'll probably see other games first?

Todd Howard: It's not what you would call a big, active project right now. There are some other ones that we have going. We know it's important to our fans, and we need to be careful about setting expectations.

It's certainly a game that we'll be making one day. I could sit here and explain to you exactly what we want it to be.

It's a game where they have the ideas of what they want to do sketched out, but they're working on a different game first instead. Since they only have 108 or so people to do this with, they can't have both games in meaningful development at the same time.

 

[Ray Down]

Doesn't mean much. Look at the resident evil movies. They should have moved away from rogue one though.

None of the Resident Evil films had a budget to make back like Assassin Creed.

 

[wipeout364]

I think we can look at Bethesda's studio structure and come to some easy conclusions though.

The entirety of Bethesda Game Studios when Fallout 4 launched was 108 developers, essentially all of whom had been working on Fallout 4 since Skyrim's DLC wrapped up (and some of them a bit earlier).

While they started a new studio in Montreal, much of their staff there is focused on mobile games.

If we feel Bethesda is lying about their next AAA console project, then a 2017 TES6 release would be a two year development cycle for an open world WRPG. This seems highly improbable in an era where the average development cycle of such products is 3-4 years.

If we feel Bethesda is not lying about their next AAA console project, and is working on a new IP, this would eat up 95%+ of their AAA console staff, and they would not be able to ship TES6 until 3-4 years after that game releases. Also could easily have another name other than elder scrolls VI like new vegas did.

This isn't like Capcom where they have 3000 staff sitting around making games. It's a very small, effectively single team studio working on huge projects.

This doesn't matter because the prediction is not that Bethesda makes the next game, its that the next instalment comes out; like elder scrolls online or fallout new vegas. They have shown they are more then willing to outsource ip which is probably what is happening.

 

[hanspampel]

Some of this is, what?

- Scorpio won't be $400, unless MS wants to pay A LOT for every sale. Maybe if they want to give the whole brand a last shot but even then, I don't think so.

why not? xbox scorpio in 2017 won't be much more expensive to produce than ps4 in 2013

xbox scorpio will for sure have a sub 400mm soc (ps4 was 340mm and xbox one 360mm)
xbox scorpio will have 12gb of cheap GDDR5 ram (ps4 was 16 chips xbox scorpio will be 12 chips) if they go with just 8gb of ram it will be even cheaper, but i doubt that

power supply, logic, mechanic and all that stuff will also be similar
so what else will make that console cost being high?

$399 for a cheap entry model with just 500gb HDD is totally possible
$499 for a 2tb launch model

 

[Nirolak]

This doesn't matter because the prediction is not that Bethesda makes the next game, its that the next instalment comes out; like elder scrolls online or fallout new vegas. They have shown they are more then willing to outsource ip which is probably what is happening.

In my OP note I pointed out that if BGS's next mobile game is an Elder Scrolls title, it would technically fit with his prediction, even if it's not the spirit of what his prediction is about.

Though to your note, who would you assume they're licensing it out to? Obsidian wasn't making anything only a few months ago when they had a rather desperate sounding interview about scrounging for projects.

 

[viHuGi]

When can I pre order the Switch?

I'm afraid of another Wii situation..

 

[TangoAlphaLima]

1.) PS4 price goes to $199. I think Sony is intent upon keeping Microsoft in distant second, and expect a price cut for standard PS4 (slim) to $199 before year-end 2017.

It's $249 right now. $199 should be obvious in another year.

2.) No Rockstar games other than Red Dead Redemption. Rockstar hasn't released a "new" game since 2013, and Red Dead will consume all of its efforts in 2017.

No shit, Sherlock. (But if RDR2 is delayed to 2018, does that make this prediction wrong? I'd think so.)

3.) Call of Duty returns to glory with a Modern Warfare title from Sledgehammer. Although I think that they want to establish the Advanced Warfare brand as a franchise, the relatively poor performance of Infinite Warfare suggests to me that Activision has to get its act together and bring fans back into the fold.

Activision is developing CoD titles on a 3-year cycle now, right? Don't see how the poor Infinite Warfare sales can have any effect on CoD in 2017. Seems like he's hedging here, too, suggesting a Modern Warfare title in 2017, but acknowledging it could be another Advanced Warfare.

4.) Super Mario Run is a huge hit out of the gate, and interest peters out by June. Notwithstanding the brand's popularity, Nintendo is making a strategic error with its "free-to-start" business model, and I expect sales to drop off relatively quickly.

Interest seems to have petered out before 2017 from the reactions I've seen.

5.) Pokemon Go drops out of the top 10 in every country with a population greater than 20 million. The game was fun, but there's only so many Pokemon to capture.

Okay, sure.

6.) The Switch is sold out through September. The console looks fun, the price appears to be right, and I expect demand to be high. If there is a lot of third-party support (games, not merely labels), I think demand remains high.

This seems like one of his boldest predictions. Could be true, but count me skeptical.

7.) The Xbox Scorpio is priced at $399. This might not be low enough, particularly if PS4 Pro drops before holiday 2017, but Microsoft has to price competitively or fall farther behind.

Considering we know absolutely nothing about the Scorpio, this could happen.

8.) The next Elder Scrolls installment comes out, the next Half Life installment does not. I think Bethesda is close, and think that Valve is not. However, I'd like to be half wrong on this one.

Going out on a real ledge with the no HL3 prediction...

 

[EGM1966]

So finally HL3 arrives...

 

[Gnome Scat]

My predictions of his predictions:

1.) Nope, $250.

2.) Well of course.

3.) Possible, although Modern Warfare Remastered will most likely come out standalone next year to fill the gap until a new studio is assigned that time period. Sledgehammer is the most likely studio to take the reigns of a modern CoD, and seeing how AW didn't do too well they may ditch the series for a more stable formula. So long as they made the decision relatively early and Activision anticipated the future fatigue the community is going through right now, then I'd say a modern CoD title is likely.

4.) Don't really follow news on this but sounds likely.

5.) I can see this happening.

6.) Eh, we'll see. I think it will sell well, but not sure about it being sold out.

7.) No way, too much talk about it being a premium console. I hope, but highly doubt it.

8.) Don't think so, they've got Prey and then I assume Wolfenstein: The New Colossus.

 

[Peter Ian Staker]

So the Switch will flop and Half Life 3 will come out in 2017.

 

[DXB-KNIGHT]

The power of Pachter is reversed after Trump won, Switch will be a success

 

[mullet2000]

Seems like reasonable predictions. The only one I don't really agree with is the Elder Scrolls Prediction, but it's far from impossible.

 

[IcyRhythms]

I think he'd be waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay off on the Valve thing. If anything Left 4 Dead 3 will finally get announced. HL3 lol...don't even get me started. All signs point to Left 4 Dead. Really hoping for a single player campaign this time in addition to the CO OP and multiplayer stuff.

 

[RichiRamjag]

That previous year report card was crazy easy to predict and pretty general lol.

 

[demosthenes]

A Bethesda PR outright said that TESVI isn't in development, how could they have it launching in 2017 then ?

Am I more informed by browsing neogaf than a professionnal analyst who does that for a living ?

I just...are you new to the industry? Every company ever will deny everything until they're ready to announce it.

No, you're not.

 

[Seik]

I'm sure he's right about Half-Life 3.

 

[clockworkinyou]

It's Pachter, he's an analyst. He's allowed to be wrong more times than he's right and still have a job. That's what he does with his megaphone.

 

[Dabanton]

I dont think Scorpio will release in 2017.

Why not? I think it's a lock dude.

 

[L Thammy]

Come on, how am I supposed to do the Pachter is always wrong meme if you say that Half Life 3 isn't coming out? Help me out here.

 

[oti]

why not? xbox scorpio in 2017 won't be much more expensive to produce than ps4 in 2013

xbox scorpio will for sure have a sub 400mm soc (ps4 was 340mm and xbox one 360mm)
xbox scorpio will have 12gb of cheap GDDR5 ram (ps4 was 16 chips xbox scorpio will be 12 chips) if they go with just 8gb of ram it will be even cheaper, but i doubt that

power supply, logic, mechanic and all that stuff will also be similar
so what else will make that console cost being high?

$399 for a cheap entry model with just 500gb HDD is totally possible
$499 for a 2tb launch model

I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[L Thammy]

Why do you guys believe dumb crap like "it's not in development". It might not be but that was said two minutes before they announced marvel vs capcom 4. Hines' job isn't to tell you the truth.

You're just overcompensating for The Last Guardian and you know it.

 

[JustenP88]

With the likelihood of Nintendo's patented planned scarcity, I could see his Switch prediction being on the money. If the thing sells for $199, he'll be right regardless of how many units they can provide to retailers.