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[Shig]

I don't think there will be a new TES in 2017, maybe an announcement, but I imagine Bethesda would want a good full year between announcing it and shipping it.

Some short-term memories around here. Fallout 4 was announced at E3 and shipped a few months later, and that worked out exceptionally well for them.

I don't know that TESVI will be ready this year or the following, but I would expect them to follow a similar reveal-to-release timetable for it.

 

[luffeN]

So the world ends in less than two weeks

 

[Quonny]

The next Elder Scrolls dropping 4 months after being announced is fully what I think they'll do.

In 2019.

 

[Justinh]

I don't know how I feel about Modern Warfare being Sledgehammer's next game ( I wanna be! Dammit, now I have that song stuck in my head!). As Giant Bomb pointed out the whole point of 3 year dev cycles is so they have more time to work on the new game and I'd assume work has already been put into the next one.

Then again, the drop in sales from Black Ops 3, I suppose, could've caused a jolt. There's just too much I don't know to really guess, I reckon.

When it comes to prices for consoles. I could totally see a PS4 price drop to 200 for the slim. They're what... 250 now during holiday season and I assume that they'd be cheaper to make as time goes on. 399 seems low for a "premium" console for Scorpio, but I wonder what that number will seem like when it actually comes out. How low will be the OG Xbox 1 next fall, how low will PS4 Pro and slim be when the next holiday season is looming?

Switch being sold out for 6 months (or nearly that)? That's something I would bet against.

 

[Dinjooh]

Some of this is, what?

- Scorpio won't be $400, unless MS wants to pay A LOT for every sale. Maybe if they want to give the whole brand a last shot but even then, I don't think so.

Seems like the safest bet of them all.

 

[jbug617]

Scorpio will start at $399. My guess there will be multiple skus ranging from $399 to $499.

 

[Bedlam]

I remember him predicting that a new Midnight Club will be Rockstar's next game, not RDR. Grade that, Pachter!

 

[Cow Goes Moo]

That previous year report card was crazy easy to predict and pretty general lol.

well i dont know about that, some posters on neogaf didn't agree with

NX will not come in 2016

thread made this year
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1196593

So 2016 and it will be very good.

2016 it is. Also SHOCKING NEWS: Pachter still being desperate to stay relevant.

Trev's source already leaked that we're getting at least one NX device this year.

Man I love it when Pacther is wrong.
Edit: well only for the release date. I want that hybrid thing as I'm fairly sure Sony will never release a handheld again.

we know the home or handheld is coming out this year as Foxconn has production to start this year (I think around august).

Trev`s source said that the NX Console would be the first NX device to launch this year.

This means it will be released in 2016... This guy is clueless about everything

So 2016 then.

So it'll release in 2016 and be good? Thanks P!

I don't see why his speculations should be more relevant than ours here.

And remember what Trev said: Holiday 2016. Even some third parties have confirmed that.

don't we already more-or-less know NX is meant to be out this year (thanks again, Trev)

etc

 

[viHuGi]

Doesn't mean much. Look at the resident evil movies. They should have moved away from rogue one though.

Rogue One is a masterpiece.

 

[Gxgear]

Pretty bold predictions.

 

[StereoVsn]

Double Post

 

[AHA-Lambda]

3.) Call of Duty returns to glory with a Modern Warfare title from Sledgehammer. Although I think that they want to establish the Advanced Warfare brand as a franchise, the relatively poor performance of Infinite Warfare suggests to me that Activision has to get its act together and bring fans back into the fold.

Uh, how is Sledgehammer & ATVI supposed to turn around a project within 12 months due to the previous installments commercial woes?

 

[StereoVsn]

Seems like the safest bet of them all.

Yeah, there should be nothing in Scorpio for 2017 that would drive up cost compared to say PS Pro in 2016. Remember, in all likelihood it won't have Zen, so it's going to be a very similar but beefed up CPU compared to the Pro and video card stronger by about same difference as PS4 to Xbone.

It better be $399 for the base model since we'll probably have PS4 Pro at $350 (or less, witness $340 on CyberMonday) and PS4 Slim at $200 during the next holiday season.

Edit: otherwise, most of his predictions seem possible. I personally doubt that Switch will be sold out till September if it comes out at $250-300 as predicted, but who the hell knows, it's not that far fetched of a bet, plus Nintendo could pull its usual supply shenanigans and allocate like 2 million world wide for the first year.

Elder Scrolls is not happening, at least for AAA production on console/PC. I am not going to count mobile here. Skyrim Shelter does not could as new Elder Scrolls release .

 

[Brokun]

Elder Scrolls VI in 2017? LOL not even remotely. It's fall 2018 at the earliest and even then I'm not 100% confident.

 

[Justinh]

I remember him predicting that a new Midnight Club will be Rockstar's next game, not RDR. Grade that, Pachter!

He mentions that in the start of last weeks Pachter Factor youtube episode. He said he was "half-right," which I felt was... "generous," lol.

He says his prediction was for no RDR2 in 16 so that's where the half-right portion comes in since he was "convinced they wouldn't go 2016 without a game release."

 

[Nestunt]

A lot of safe bets

Was hoping for MS exclusive to make the Scorpio interesting

 

[galvatron]

I actually agree with him this time, minus some doubt about Pokémon Go falling that far down the charts.

PS4 slim with Uncharted 4 was already $212 from Amazon and Target this year and it wasn't a doorbuster, so really not far off of his suggested MSRP.

 

[Acquiescence]

well i dont know about that, some posters on neogaf didn't agree with


thread made this year
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1196593












etc

I love it when Gaf dogpiles on Pachter and he turns out to be right. I'm sure he does too.

 

[Sjefen]

Some of this predictions sound a bit far fetched...

 

[Trago]

Scorpio at $399 would be huge.

 

[Super_Cobra]

Wouldn't $399 be very close to a loss for Microsoft? I can see it being $399 if there's not too much hype for it.

 

[Afrodium]

2.) No Rockstar games other than Red Dead Redemption. Rockstar hasn't released a "new" game since 2013, and Red Dead will consume all of its efforts in 2017.

This is a laughably safe bet. Does anyone think Rockstar is going to have a surprise release next year? This is like betting that BotW will be the only console Zelda in 2017.

 

[Joco]

The next Elder Scrolls comes out? Unless he has some inside knowledge and Todd Howard has been lying about working on a different project, there's no way this happens.

I also don't see the PS4 going to $200.

 

[kewlmyc]

The Assassin's Creed movie will be a modest success - A. It's looking really good based upon the trailers.

 

[Xiao Hu]

8.) The next Elder Scrolls installment comes out, the next Half Life installment does not. I think Bethesda is close, and think that Valve is not. However, I'd like to be half wrong on this one.

They already said they're working on other projects and I kind of doubt the new Montreal studio (est 2015) is in any capacity to get a game done so quickly. Unless they outsourced one of their main franchises....

 

[Servbot24]

Thinking the Assassins Creed trailer looks good :|

I'm glad if people are happy about things but

:|

 

[demosthenes]

1) Expected
2) Expected
3) Not sure where to begin on this as I don't follow the fanchise closely. Poor IW sales shouldn't touch next year's game though.
4) Can sort of see this, and it effecting Nintendo going forward.
5) I think as numbers drop, they'll release more Pokemon instead of just doing it the way they're doing it now.
6) I don't think Switch will have 3rd party support. If it comes out in March I can see it being sold out through the summer.
7) Eh, I'm doubtful at $400 still.
8) In development but not next year.

 

[Schlorgan]

Would Sledgehammer have enough time to turn around a Modern Warfare game when they've probably been making Advanced Warfare 2 for the past two years?

 

[AllIsOneIsNone]

"3.) Call of Duty returns to glory with a Modern Warfare title from Sledgehammer. Although I think that they want to establish the Advanced Warfare brand as a franchise, the relatively poor performance of Infinite Warfare suggests to me that Activision has to get its act together and bring fans back into the fold."

Except that Sledgehammer has been working on their next title for 2 years...

Would Sledgehammer have enough time to turn around a Modern Warfare game when they've probably been making Advanced Warfare 2 for the past two years?

haha, damn.

Edit: Moreover, I thought Advanced Warfare was by far the most promising futuristic COD title out of the last 3. The only thing I hated about AW was how bad the quicker movement translated into the standard shit-tier p2p server (that they claimed like usual would be dedicated)and all the laggy hit detection issues that go along with it.

 

[Bolivar687]

Uh, how is Sledgehammer & ATVI supposed to turn around a project within 12 months due to the previous installments commercial woes?

All hands on deck

 

[kraspkibble]

I don't think we'll see Elder Scrolls VI next year. Would love to be wrong though.

As for CoD. Aren't people tired of modern/futuristic fps games? Personally I'm not but a lot of people were really happy when BF1 was announced as a world war game. I think even if they did another WW game it wouldn't help much. I hope CoD is done.

Redemption 2 I would bet is coming in 2018. Rockstar love delays.

I think he might be right about the price of Scorpio. $400/£400. The ps4 pro here is £350. At an absolute push maybe £450. Anything over that is crazy.

As for the Switch, I have no idea. If Nintendo are smart they will have a lot of stock but depending on how things go whatever they do might no be enough and it'll be out of stock for a good while.

 

[Darkstorne]

3.) Call of Duty returns to glory with a Modern Warfare title from Sledgehammer. Although I think that they want to establish the Advanced Warfare brand as a franchise, the relatively poor performance of Infinite Warfare suggests to me that Activision has to get its act together and bring fans back into the fold.

Modern Warfare is next year SPECIFICALLY because IW sold poorly, even though he thinks Advanced Warfare 2 was always the plan until IW didn't meet sales expectations? So to clarify, he thinks Sledgehammer were briefed earlier this month with "Scrap all that work on AW2 boys. You've got 12 months to both start and complete work on MW4."

8.) The next Elder Scrolls installment comes out, the next Half Life installment does not. I think Bethesda is close, and think that Valve is not. However, I'd like to be half wrong on this one.

And this is even more unlikely. Both Todd and Pete Hines have made it perfectly clear TES6 is not in full development, a brand new IP by Todd's team is, and you'll see that new IP first. And if you think that new IP is coming next year, you'd still be setting yourself up for disappointment. It's a fall 2018 game. Let's be clear, these guys are usually ultra secretive about their projects, but they've been completely open about this one because they know people would expect TES6 if they weren't. It's definitely not happening until late 2020 at the absolute earliest. Todd has one team only.

 

[fireflame]

How exactly does he make those predictions ? I mean he is supposed to be a professional, but for example, if i made a thread with predictions, what would be the difference?

 

[Bolivar687]

Modern Warfare is next year SPECIFICALLY because IW sold poorly, even though he thinks Advanced Warfare 2 was always the plan until IW didn't meet sales expectations? So to clarify, he thinks Sledgehammer were briefed earlier this month with "Scrap all that work on AW2 boys. You've got 12 months to both start and complete work on MW4."

It's unlikely but they would have more than 12 months to finish it. Activision must have knoen IW would be a massive decline from the preorder numbers.

 

[AllIsOneIsNone]

And this is even more unlikely. Both Todd and Pete Hines have made it perfectly clear TES6 is not in full development, a brand new IP by Todd's team is, and you'll see that new IP first. And if you think that new IP is coming next year, you'd still be setting yourself up for disappointment. It's a fall 2018 game. Let's be clear, these guys are usually ultra secretive about their projects, but they've been completely open about this one because they know people would expect TES6 if they weren't. It's definitely not happening until late 2020 at the absolute earliest. Todd has one team only.

Yeah, this prediction makes it look like Pachter has no clue what he's talking about. We'd probably know if an elder scrolls game was coming out in the next 2-3 years and we don't, so 1 is totally laughable...

 

[Darkstorne]

It's unlikely but they would have more than 12 months to finish it. Activision must have knoen IW would be a massive decline from the preorder numbers.

So 18 months tops? You think they'd risk that? Given how much noise they've made recently about switching to a 3 year dev cycle for the series to ensure it's ongoing quality and place in the market, I highly doubt they'd risk this.

 

[Trup1aya]

$399 scorpio would be awesome.

 

[LegendofJoe]

I came into this thread expecting to be mildly amused, but instead I'm depressed. Why in the hell is Bethesda putting Elder Scrolls on the back burner? Are they seriously telling me that there won't be a big budget medieval fantasy RPG on the market for another 3 to 5 years? With CDR working on Cyberpunk, that pretty much leaves BioWare and Dragon Age as the only IP with a reasonable hope of getting another iteration anytime soon.

This combined with the extreme lack of Star Wars games has me really down on the industy.

 

[Taker34]

Elder Scrolls VI in 2017? LOL not even remotely. It's fall 2018 at the earliest and even then I'm not 100% confident.

2020-2026 at the earliest. Two big AAA IP's will be released before TES6. 2018-19 would be the release year of their first new IP.

 

[RedToad64]

Funny that he is grading himself and gives all high marks. It doesn't work like that, Pachter. Plus he was totally off the target with Pokemon Go. Hilarious.

 

[killroy87]

Uh, how is Sledgehammer & ATVI supposed to turn around a project within 12 months due to the previous installments commercial woes?

The series has been on a sales decline since Ghosts.

 

[tilomite!]

I think those are mostly pretty conservative predictions. I hope he's right about CoD and wrong about Switch supply. Of course the Half Life prediction is too easy.

 

[Somnid]

- $200 PS4? Yeah right, maybe with BF gift card bundles. There's not a lot of pressure to price drop and even if it did it wouldn't be a whole $100. $250 maybe.

- If Mario Run can last until June it will be one of the most successful games of all time. It'd expect much less. People will pay once or not pay and then drop it with maybe a slight bump around a Mario release. It doesn't have the pay or evolution model to sustain that long on the charts.

- Barring a major shakeup, I don't see Pokemon Go leaving anytime soon.

The rest are plausible but I'd be highly surprised given Bethesda's comments that Elder Scroll is coming soon.

 

[Skux]

He knows the price of the Switch?

 

[Schlorgan]

All hands on deck

Isn't that basically how MW3 was made?

It would be fitting.

 

[JustSomeone]

Of course the switch will be sold out.
Nintendo will undermanufacture it again.

 

[RibMan]

$199.99 for PS4 Slim and $399.99 for Scorpio/Xbox Two is expected. I think Sony will officially drop the PS4 Slim to $249.99, but all retailers will unofficially offer it for $199.99 and below during holiday 2017.

What I'd like to know are his predictions for the Switch price. Based on the leaked specs, is it unreasonable to expect it to launch at $159.99?

 

[ViciousDS]

those are rather modest projections from Pachter and most I agree with.....except maybe Pokemon Go dropping out of the top 10......right now the only reason it would drop is due to the weather........come back to spring and if Niantic can actually deliver some updates during the perfect season where not as many people are out, you will see phone walkers all over again.


I also believe that AW2 just got pushed to next year and we will get a classic CoD bumped to this year. IW is terrible, it sucks outside the campaign and no one wants booster packs 4 years in a fucking row

 

[Ooccoo]

No way Elder Scrolls VI comes out next year imo.

Why not? If it's gimped like Fallout 4 I wouldn't be surprised.

- Can you please slay the evil minion in that cave for me?

YES / NO / MAYBE / MINION?

 

[Darkstorne]

I came into this thread expecting to be mildly amused, but instead I'm depressed. Why in the hell is Bethesda putting Elder Scrolls on the back burner? Are they seriously telling me that there won't be a big budget medieval fantasy RPG on the market for another 3 to 5 years? With CDR working on Cyberpunk, that pretty much leaves BioWare and Dragon Age as the only IP with a reasonable hope of getting another iteration anytime soon.

This combined with the extreme lack of Star Wars games has me really down on the industy.

But you've got loads of TES to keep you happy this gen! Skyrim Special Edition, AND The Elder Scrolls Online. What more could you possibly want? =P

Sarcasm aside, I share your pain. But to be fair, after Skyrim shifting 20 million units by 2013 (so presumably 25 million or more by now with the SE release) that team have more than earned the right to work on a new IP. It'll be good to see them shake things up a bit and get more creative. And it's nice to know they're happy to keep TES releases spaced apart enough that they always make huge changes. If Ubisoft managed Todd's team we'd be on TES 12 by now...