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[DarkLordMalik]

Dengeki data for some time ago suggests Dragon Quest VIII on 3DS hit a million units including digital, or will get there pretty soon.

People can get their Monsters fix on a free mobile game that has millions of downloads not to mention that Joker 3 was a really cheap game too.

Their musou game sold over a 800k units and its sequel didn't had the musou levels of drop, their Minecraft clone too sold excedingly well.

Mobile and arcade games do really well and spin offs do as well as they've always done, they're even having their own section on Universal Studios Japan, just like Nintendo.

A DS game sold 3 million units in 2012, and we know of a 3DS game that will sell over 2 million in 2017.

All fair points but I just don't see it.

DQIX was the best selling game that managed to reach 4.2 to 4.4 million on one of the hottest selling handheld in history. The second best selling entry was DQVII on PS1 with 3.9 million sales.

How can one predict DQXI manages to reach 4 million when that was the peak of the series? The dedicated gaming market is so dire in Japan that if this happens, then it would be nothing short of a miracle.

People will say that Monster Hunter and Pokemon maintained their sales to some extent but all of them had big mainline games released over the course all these years. Unlike Dragon Quest series, which received an MMO after DQIX and then nothing for years.

Best selling Dragon Quest games from GameDataLibrary.

NDS Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies [All Versions] 2.343.440 4.402.263 Square Enix 7/11/2009
NDS Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies 2.343.440 4.155.855 Square Enix 7/11/2009
PS1 Dragon Quest VII: Fragments of the Forgotten Time 1.862.065 3.893.293 Enix 8/26/2000
FC Dragon Quest III: The Seeds of Salvation 3.800.000 Enix 2/10/1988
PS2 Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King [All Versions] 2.236.881 3.705.170 Square Enix 11/27/2004
PS2 Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King 2.236.881 3.555.469 Square Enix 11/27/2004
FC Dragon Quest IV: Chapters of the Chosen 3.100.000 Enix 2/11/1990
SFC Dragon Quest VI: Realms Of Revelation 1.274.857 3.081.975 Enix 12/9/1995
SFC Dragon Quest V: Hand of the Heavenly Bride 2.790.000 Enix 9/27/1992
FC Dragon Quest II: Luminaries of the Legendary Line 2.410.000 Enix 1/26/1987

 

[MacTag]

It should be able to reach 2 million on 3DS, yes. But I don't see it ever hitting 3 million there.

I don't have much expectations with the UE4 version of the game. It is just a new type of thing that I have no idea how it will fly in Japan. We only have a game like Ni No Kuni to compare it against in term of the different platform release idea.

3 million is more likely than just 2 million.

Ninokuni isn't a good comparison since it launched at such different times and had very differing content. Smash 4 might be better (closer launch, same base content) but still not perfect.

There is a huge gap now between the last mainline DQ game and the current one. Even the current DQ games have all underperformed to some extent. The latest remake of VIII never hit million while the DS remakes were all million sellers. Dragon Quest Joker 3 failed to reach the heights of Joker 2.

Is that hard to understand that perhaps the series isn't popular anymore as it was in the past and won't reach the height of DQIX sales?

It should sell atleast 3 million if we count all 3 versions of the game. I don't expect it to sell the 4.2-4.4 million of DQIX, which means it will be inline with other JRPG series and have a big drop from the last 'proper' mainline game.

VIII didn't have a full remake, it was a (gameplay) improved port on 3DS. And had it not so soon followed a cheaper mobile conversion it might've done over a million.

Joker 3 dissapointed but the game got little promotion and had terrible response from the fans due to light content. It was a bad product.

I expect DQXI to do 3.5m minimum. It could drop from DQIX but it won't be as near bad as FFXV from FFXIII or KH3 from KH2.

 

[Chris1964]

Last defense for "dead Japan" excuse every time a title underperforms will be DQXI apparently.

 

[Oregano]

I'm trying to think of the last time people being bearish on a sequel to an established franchise were actually wrong.

Probably Animal Crossing New Leaf like... four(?) years ago.

EDIT: Unless you want to count Super Mario Maker 3DS in which it was like three weeks ago...

 

[Ōkami]

Miitopia?

Maybe, but I was rather thinking of Monster Hunter XX.

 

[LordKano]

It will be fun when people will say that 2.5m isn't that bad for DQXI in november 2017.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

I expect DQXI to do 3.5m minimum. It could drop from DQIX but it won't be as near bad as FFXV from FFXIII or KH3 from KH2.

3.5 minimum is still high bar for it. I guess we will find out once it is released.

I am just not optimistic about it because I have given all hope from the current gaming market in Japan. It is on life support and I doubt it can give birth to 4 million sellers again.

 

[viHuGi]

Not even Pokémon is doing 4 million these days.
Dragon Quest isn't gonna come close.

Pokemon is at 3 million, likely to cross 4m.

 

[MacTag]

3.5 minimum is still high bar for it. I guess we will find out once it is released.

I am just not optimistic about it because I have given all hope from the current gaming market in Japan. It is on life support and I doubt it can give birth to 4 million sellers again.

3DS is end of life and PS4 is (best case) looking like another PS3. Depends on Switch if Japan can see future 4m sellers. Could go either way although the Japanese marketing isn't great so far.

edit: also odd that 4m is the mark for health in the Japan industry. Previous 4m sellers;

FC: 1 (shipments)
GB: 2 + 2 (shipments)
SFC: 0
PSX: 0
PS2: 0
GBA: 1
DS: 7
PSP: 2
Wii: 1
PS3: 0
3DS: 3 so far

 

[DarkLordMalik]

3DS is end of life and PS4 is (best case) looking like another PS3. Depends on Switch if Japan can see future 4m sellers. Could go either way although the Japanese marketing isn't great so far.

Yes, Switch will sell better than PS4, I am sure. But it won't be able to retain the 20 million 3DS users unless it brings in new customers. This is the reality that we have to face.

I don't expect PS4 to match PS3 sales either, same for Switch to 3DS.

Pokemon is at 3 million, likely to cross 4m.

Pokemon is a series that has maintained its strong presence when Dragon Quest was on the support of spin-offs. Pokemon kept getting mainline games like Monster Hunter and they remained popular enough.

Dragon Quest might have a dedicated multimillion fanbase that still exists but it certainly isn't one that can still support 4 million sales.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Pokemon is at 3 million, likely to cross 4m.

And yet 4M is a decline from the general sales of Pokemon prior to 3DS, aka over 5M.

 

[Oregano]

To be fair Japan gets more scrutiny because the platforms people care about(PS4/XBO/PC) are irrelevant there. The fact is dedicated devices are going to be massively down worldwide this generation even when you take into account the fact Sony/MS expanded into new markets.

People just don't care that portables declined in the west and you know the Wii was an anomaly. It makes sense to just compare PS4/XBO to PS3/360 in which case everything is fine.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

And yet 4M is a decline from the general sales of Pokemon prior to 3DS, aka over 5M.

I thought sun and moon was the biggest pokemon launch ever?

 

[Nirolak]

Last defense for "dead Japan" excuse every time a title underperforms will be DQXI apparently.

I think the idea that 95%+ of developers just make games that are decidedly less appealing to Japanese customers than they used to be is probably actually the worse scenario for publishers, since it implies their staff are very out of touch and likely incapable of succeeding.

I'm open to the idea though. We've certainly seen variance in degree of decline.

That said, even if Dragon Quest XI is on the softer end of that, a 10% decline would get it below 4 million.

I thought sun and moon was the biggest pokemon launch ever?

Outside Japan it was by a huge margin.

Inside Japan it was down from X&Y.

 

[Oregano]

I think the idea that 95%+ of developers just make games that are decidedly less appealing to Japanese customers than they used to be is probably actually the worse scenario for publishers, since it implies their staff are very out of touch and likely incapable of succeeding.

I'm open to the idea though. We've certainly seen variance in degree of decline.

I think it's generally true to at least some degree. Most obviously their preference for the PS4 is clearly at odds with consumers.

 

[LordKano]

I thought sun and moon was the biggest pokemon launch ever?

Worldwide, yes. Japan-wise, it's weaker than X/Y.

 

[Oregano]

DQIX benefited from being a social multiplayer game whereas DQXI is going to be a traditional single player RPG. I think just based on that it will decline.

 

[Nirolak]

DQIX benefited from being a social multiplayer game whereas DQXI is going to be a traditional single player RPG. I think just based on that it will decline.

In actually kind of surprised they didn't put co-op in DQXI (to our knowledge), but maybe they feel Dragon Quest of the Stars has that audience covered.

 

[Oregano]

In actually kind of surprised they didn't put co-op in DQXI, but maybe they feel Dragon Quest of the Stars has that audience covered.

Yup, I actually said that quite a while ago. Most of the people who loved DQIX will now get their fill on mobile now.

 

[MacTag]

Yes, Switch will sell better than PS4, I am sure. But it won't be able to retain the 20 million 3DS users unless it brings in new customers. This is the reality that we have to face.

I don't expect PS4 to match PS3 sales either, same for Switch to 3DS.

You don't need a 20m+ base to do 4m sellers. Look at Wii, GBA or PSP.

Switch is too much of a question mark to gauge now imo. It's the future home for Mario, Pokémon, DQ and likely MH though so it doing 15m+ wouldn't be so unusual.

Pokemon is a series that has maintained its strong presence when Dragon Quest was on the support of spin-offs. Pokemon kept getting mainline games like Monster Hunter and they remained popular enough.

Dragon Quest might have a dedicated multimillion fanbase that still exists but it certainly isn't one that can still support 4 million sales.

You keep saying this but there's really no indication that's true. The 3DS DQ remakes all sold well as did the PS ecosystem spinoffs, DQX was a big success for a MMO and the mobile games like DQM Super Lite or Hoshi no DQ were/are huge. One Monsters game bombing (yet still outselling Persona 5 btw) isn't proof enough.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Btw on a slightly different note, what exactly is the purpose of DQMJ3: Professional? Is it just to let the devs finish up what they started and end the series on a high note of a game? Maybe Square-Enix actually plans on marketing this one instead of just shoving it out the door?

 

[Oregano]

You don't need a 20m+ base to do 4m sellers. Look at Wii, GBA or PSP.

Switch is too much of a question mark to gauge now imo. It's the future home for Mario, Pokémon, DQ and likely MH though so it doing 15m+ wouldn't be so unusual.


You keep saying this but there's really no indication that's true. The 3DS DQ remakes all sold well as did the PS ecosystem spinoffs, DQX was a big success for a MMO and the mobile games like DQM Super Lite or Hoshi no DQ were/are huge. One Monsters game bombing (yet still outselling Persona 5 btw) isn't proof enough.

and DQVIII has outdone FFXV.

I actually think Switch's potential depends more on how third parties decide to support it. Honestly that's what is most concerning about Tabata's comments and the wider "Japan is dead" narrative, it completely absolves the developers of any responsibility. It's basically going "There's nothing we could do!" after not really trying.

EDIT:

Btw on a slightly different note, what exactly is the purpose of DQMJ3: Professional? Is it just to let the devs finish up what they started and end the series on a high note of a game? Maybe Square-Enix actually plans on marketing this one instead of just shoving it out the door?

It was probably planned before the original release. The professional version of Joker 2 did really well.

 

[Nirolak]

Yup, I actually said that quite a while ago. Most of the people who loved DQIX will now get their fill on mobile now.

You know, if we extend this out, it actually puts out an interesting scenario.

Traditionally, the decline in the Japanese dedicated device market has been viewed from the perspective of lifestyle fit. Handhelds were seen as working better for Japanese lifestyles than consoles, and mobile devices were seen as working better for Japanese lifestyles than handhelds. As handheld games became sufficiently high enough quality across a wide range of genres around the DS/PSP era, Japanese gamers migrated to handheld devices, even if it meant trading some amount of perceived quality. The same happened with mobile devices usurping handheld devices 8-10 years later.

However, it's actually entirely possible that Japanese gamers just felt that handheld games on the DS/PSP were flat out better than the offerings on consoles during the late PS2 and full PS3 era. Similarly, they might view mobile games as being better designed and more fun than anything consoles or handhelds have to offer today.

Who is to say that Dragon Quest Monsters: Super Light simply isn't just the far superior game to Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3, causing the latter to decline? Maybe Brave EXVIUS is way more entertaining than FF15, helping to push FF15 notably down even in terms of sales versus install base. And maybe Dragon Quest of the Stars just turns out to be better and more fun than Dragon Quest XI, causing declines there

I don't think those would be popular opinions here, but we actually don't have much opinion data from people who have dumped consoles and handhelds in favor of mobile.

 

[Oregano]

I definitely think that is at least part of the equation that is getting missed.

The brands that have maintained the most relevance on consoles this generation are the ones that have extensive social multiplayer features. It was almost certainly a factor in Splatoon's success too.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

You keep saying this but there's really no indication that's true. The 3DS DQ remakes all sold well as did the PS ecosystem spinoffs, DQX was a big success for a MMO and the mobile games like DQM Super Lite or Hoshi no DQ were/are huge. One Monsters game bombing (yet still outselling Persona 5 btw) isn't proof enough.

Since you missed it. Here are the best selling Dragon Quest games excluding remakes and spinoffs, that have sold over 2 million.

NDS	Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies [All Versions]	2.343.440	4.402.263	Square Enix	7/11/2009
PS1	Dragon Quest VII: Fragments of the Forgotten Time	1.862.065	3.893.293	Enix	8/26/2000
FC	Dragon Quest III: The Seeds of Salvation	 	3.800.000	Enix	2/10/1988
PS2	Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King [All Versions]	2.236.881	3.705.170	Square Enix	11/27/2004
FC	Dragon Quest IV: Chapters of the Chosen	 	3.100.000	Enix	2/11/1990
SFC	Dragon Quest VI: Realms Of Revelation	1.274.857	3.081.975	Enix	12/9/1995
SFC	Dragon Quest V: Hand of the Heavenly Bride	 	2.790.000	Enix	9/27/1992
FC	Dragon Quest II: Luminaries of the Legendary Line	 	2.410.000	Enix	1/26/1987

So on the high end, we have 4.4 million and on the low end, we have 2.4 million for a mainline game. I expect DQXI to fall somewhere in between, which is somewhere around 3 million, but certainly not 3.5 million, even if we count all platforms.

So yeh, there is definitely going to be a drop from the 4.4 million and there is a very 'rare' chance of 4 million being hit again.

This 4 million is not a way to say the game is a success but to prove the point that there will be a drop. I expect around 15 to 20% drop, which is not as drastic as a lot other games but still a noteworthy drop.

 

[Nirolak]

I definitely think that is at least part of the equation that is getting missed.

The brands that have maintained the most relevance on consoles this generation are the ones that have extensive social multiplayer features. It was almost certainly a factor in Splatoon's success too.

Splatoon was also an online competitive third person shooter, so it was not only on a dead platform, but in a genre that was considered completely non-viable in Japan.

Similar, Minecraft is by far the biggest Vita game, and it's a Western title with a blocky Western art style, an open world, and very little gameplay direction. This would similarly be assessed as a total non-starter in a vacuum.

Maybe most Japanese dedicated device publishers are just completely wrong about what Japanese consumers actually want to play.

 

[MacTag]

Since you missed it. Here are the best selling Dragon Quest games excluding remakes and spinoffs, that have sold over 2 million.

NDS	Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies [All Versions]	2.343.440	4.402.263	Square Enix	7/11/2009
PS1	Dragon Quest VII: Fragments of the Forgotten Time	1.862.065	3.893.293	Enix	8/26/2000
FC	Dragon Quest III: The Seeds of Salvation	 	3.800.000	Enix	2/10/1988
PS2	Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King [All Versions]	2.236.881	3.705.170	Square Enix	11/27/2004
FC	Dragon Quest IV: Chapters of the Chosen	 	3.100.000	Enix	2/11/1990
SFC	Dragon Quest VI: Realms Of Revelation	1.274.857	3.081.975	Enix	12/9/1995
SFC	Dragon Quest V: Hand of the Heavenly Bride	 	2.790.000	Enix	9/27/1992
FC	Dragon Quest II: Luminaries of the Legendary Line	 	2.410.000	Enix	1/26/1987

So on the high end, we have 4.4 million and on the low end, we have 2.4 million for a mainline game. I expect DQXI to fall somewhere in between, which is somewhere around 3 million, but certainly not 3.5 million, even if we count all platforms.

So yeh, there is definitely going to be a drop from the 4.4 million and there is a very 'rare' chance of 4 million being hit again.

This 4 million is not a way to say the game is a success but to prove the point that there will be a drop. I expect around 15 to 20% drop, which is not as drastic as a lot other games but still a noteworthy drop.

Check your math. A 15-20% drop from 4.4m is still over 3.5m.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Check your math. A 15-20% drop from 4.4m is still over 3.5m.

I was talking about the comment that said 'usual 4 million' so my drop percentage was based on 4 million expectation

If we talk about 4.4, then expect a drop of 25% to 30%

 

[MacTag]

I was talking about the comment that said 'usual 4 million' so my drop percentage was based on 4 million expectation

Only one game did 4m+ though, what's usual about that? And I still don't really understand your reasoning for a big decline anyway beyond "dead Japan"?

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Only one game did 4m+ though, what's usual about that? And I still don't really understand your reasoning for a big decline anyway beyond "dead Japan"?

It is just not 'dead Japan' but I am also saying that a fanbase that can retain 4 million sales doesn't seem like a possibility to me.

 

[Oregano]

Splatoon was also an online competitive third person shooter, so it was not only on a dead platform, but in a genre that was considered completely non-viable in Japan.

Similar, Minecraft is by far the biggest Vita game, and it's a Western title with a blocky Western art style, an open world, and very little gameplay direction. This would similarly be assessed as a total non-starter in a vacuum.

Maybe most Japanese dedicated device publishers are just completely wrong about what Japanese consumers actually want to play.

I think there's definitely something to it. Even the Souls games have significant social aspects.

It's hard to think of a successful game in the last few years that didn't have those features. Persona 5 is the obvious outlier.

 

[MacTag]

It is just not 'dead Japan' but I am also saying that a fanbase that can retain 4 million sales doesn't seem like a possibility to me.

Based on what though? Remakes, X, Heroes and Builders all did well and Super Lite and Stars are huge?

I don't think under 4m is that unlikely either but you're setting the bar even lower than that (under 3.5m).

 

[DarkLordMalik]

I think there's definitely something to it. Even the Souls games have significant social aspects.

It's hard to think of a successful game in the last few years that didn't have those features. Persona 5 is the obvious outlier.

Ummm..... FFXV has zero social aspect.

They do have a 'social' element planned as DLC but that is like the last item on their list for DLC release and won't be out until late 2017. I doubt people bought the game because of that element.

Based on what though? Remakes, X, Heroes and Builders all did well and Super Lite and Stars are huge?

I don't think under 4m is that unlikely either but you're setting the bar even lower than that (under 3.5m).

Since you keep mentioning the mobile games, you need to understand that doesn't work retroactively for handhelds/consoles. FF games are extremely popular on mobile but did it work for the mainline series or spinoffs?

As Nirolak has said, there is a good chance many people are more than happy with what they can play on their mobile phones and won't rush off to buy the game in droves like the rest of the world did for Pokemon. Pokemon GO had the least effect in Japan compared to the rest of the world.

Also no game has managed to sell 2 million in the past couple of years for Dragon Quest series. There is a very dedicated Dragon Quest fanbase, and I have said as much that they can easily sell in multimillion. But Don't expect the game sales to reach 4 million based on the fanbase alone. It will need much more than that to go 3+ million.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

I think there's definitely something to it. Even the Souls games have significant social aspects.

It's hard to think of a successful game in the last few years that didn't have those features. Persona 5 is the obvious outlier.

Does Fire Emblem have online?

 

[Nirolak]

Does Fire Emblem have online?

Fates had a town you built that had a lot of social elements along with competitive multiplayer.

It's probably worth noting that the popular mobile games basically have social elements across the board as well, with the #1 game pushing 4 player co-op as its biggest feature.

 

[MacTag]

I think there's definitely something to it. Even the Souls games have significant social aspects.

It's hard to think of a successful game in the last few years that didn't have those features. Persona 5 is the obvious outlier.

Fire Emblem? It's social elements are pretty minor really.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Fates had a town you built that had a lot of social elements along with competitive multiplayer.

I played both versions and didnt know that lol

 

[theprodigy]

Fates had a town you built that had a lot of social elements along with competitive multiplayer.

It's probably worth noting that the popular mobile games basically have social elements across the board as well, with the #1 game pushing 4 player co-op as its biggest feature.

It's technically there, but it's hardly a major feature.

 

[Oregano]

Fire Emblem? It's social elements are pretty minor really.

That's a good one although as Nirolak noted those features were expanded in Fates(after being present in Awakening).

Fates had a town you built that had a lot of social elements along with competitive multiplayer.

It's probably worth noting that the popular mobile games basically have social elements across the board as well, with the #1 game pushing 4 player co-op as its biggest feature.

Listening to 8-4 Play made it really apparent when John was comparing Monster Strike to Monster Hunter.

On that note maybe Monster Strike 3DS would have been more successful as traditional hunting action game...

 

[Nirolak]

Even if we want to ignore the online elements of Fates, it's probably worth noting that this is a series selling on par with Persona 5 (the other SP success lately) instead of like Splatoon or Minecraft.

That's actually not too dissimilar to... basically every other video game market.

There are some primarily singleplayer games doing well, but they're both outsold and outnumbered by majorly successful games with notable MP components.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

But yeah, if you make a list of the top 20 best selling games on any platform right now, you will likely only find a couple that have no multiplayer features.

EA wont even greenlight a game without some kind of social feature.

 

[Square2015]

And for fun, we also now have

DQ5 W1:

1 SFC	Dragon Quest V: Bride of Heaven (9/27) Enix  62171  683,000  / 2,790,000

DQ4 W1:

1 FC	Dragon Quest IV: The Guided Ones (2/11) Enix  6908  159,000 / 3,100,000

Edit: ^ these were first day only

DQ3 W1*

1 FC	Dragon Quest III [2/10] Enix  54694 / 3,800,000

*DQ3 probably 1.0m ~ 1.5m

 

[Sterok]

The 3DS Mario platformers are singleplayer experiences (New Super Mario Bros. 2 technically had multiplayer, but I doubt that made any difference). Of course those came out 4/5 years ago, the the Wii U versions had significant multiplayer, and I think the Switch successors are expected to as well, so I don't know how much those mean now.

 

[Jon Carter]

It remains to be seen whether people buy Super Mario Maker 3DS for StreetPass or just because it's unlimited 2D Mario.

 

[MacTag]

Since you keep mentioning the mobile games, you need to understand that doesn't work retroactively for handhelds/consoles. FF games are extremely popular on mobile but did it work for the mainline series or spinoffs?

As Nirolak has said, there is a good chance many people are more than happy with what they can play on their mobile phones and won't rush off to buy the game in droves like the rest of the world did for Pokemon. Pokemon GO had the least effect in Japan compared to the rest of the world.

Also no game has managed to sell 2 million in the past couple of years for Dragon Quest series. There is a very dedicated Dragon Quest fanbase, and I have said as much that they can easily sell in multimillion. But Don't expect the game sales to reach 4 million based on the fanbase alone. It will need much more than that to go 3+ million.

I wouldn't be so quick to discount console and mobile synergy. Popular mobile brands have transitioned well like Puzzle & Dragons, Battle Cats, Monster Strike or even Minecraft really (technically PC but biggest on mobile in Japan). Japan might be the only region where SunMoon isn't setting franchise records but it's also barely down from XY either. I'm not sure that would be the case without Go.

Besides we were talking general franchise strength and brand awareness. Every DQ release should be considered for that and I don't believe the mobile FF games have exactly been runaway successes on the level of DQMSL or Hoshi no DQ. DQ is practically an institution in Japan, only Mario and Pokémon can really compare historically. DQ is still an "everyone" game at it's core in a way FF never was.

No DQ game ever sold over 2m outside the mainline series either, although Monsters 1 came close. That's a pretty meaningless data point.

 

[milanbaros]

Which is the bigger reason for the home and handheld decline in Japan from 15 years ago? Demographic or alternative devices?

 

[Nirolak]

Besides we were talking general franchise strength and brand awareness. Every DQ release should be considered for that and I don't believe the mobile FF games have exactly been runaway successes on the level of DQMSL or Hoshi no DQ. DQ is practically an institution in Japan, only Mario and Pokémon can really compare historically. DQ is still an "everyone" game at it's core in a way FF never was.

Final Fantasy was actually winning in 2015 when it was Super Light versus Record Keeper, but Brave Exvius does worse than Dragon Quest of the Stars.

Top games of 2015:

Monthly Top 10 (By Revenue) January 2015 through November 2016, iOS/Android combined:

January 2015:
#10 Final Fantasy: Record Keeper

Febraury 2015:
#9. Dragon Quest Monsters: Super Light

March 2015:
#10. Final Fantasy: Record Keeper

April 2015:
#9. Final Fantasy: Record Keeper

May 2015:
#5. Dragon Quest Monsters: Super Light
#10. Final Fantasy: Record Keeper

June 2015:
#10. Final Fantasy: Record Keeper

September 2015:
#7. Dragon Quest Monsters: Super Light

October 2015:
#9. Final Fantasy: Record Keeper

January 2016:
#9. Dragon Quest Monsters: Super Light

February 2016:
#9. Dragon Quest of the Stars

March 2016:
#8. Dragon Quest of the Stars

May 2016:
#7. Dragon Quest of the Stars

June 2016:
#9. Dragon Quest of the Stars

October 2016:
#9. Dragon Quest of the Stars

The above is via App Annie.

Mind, the direction of Japanese mobile revenue has been upward, so Dragon Quest of the Stars is likely making more than Record Keeper was in 2015 even if it fails to hit #8 for 2016 overall.

 

[saichi]

Not even Pokémon is doing 4 million these days.
Dragon Quest isn't gonna come close.

I'll make 2 bets...

Pokemon SM will break 4 million in Japan.

DQXI will break 4 million in Japan across 3 platforms (3DS, PS4, Switch).

***
Mainline DQ game was never on multiple systems. We will see sharp decline (say 30%) from DQIX to DQXI which makes it a little over 3 million on 3DS. However, the HD version of PS4 and whatever version on Switch will help sell another million.

 

[duckroll]

I think there's definitely something to it. Even the Souls games have significant social aspects.

It's hard to think of a successful game in the last few years that didn't have those features. Persona 5 is the obvious outlier.

How is Persona 5 an outlier when it had a bunch of integrated social elements in it? They expand on stuff they already experimented with on Catherine and Japanese gamers love it. When you pick choices in the game, you can always see the distribution of choices other players made. There's a connected feeling of playing a game with everyone online, even if it is a single player RPG.

Social doesn't always mean multiplayer or sharing customized towns and characters.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

How is Persona 5 an outlier when it had a bunch of integrated social elements in it? They expand on stuff they already experimented with on Catherine and Japanese gamers love it. When you pick choices in the game, you can always see the distribution of choices other players made. There's a connected feeling of playing a game with everyone online, even if it is a single player RPG.

Social doesn't always mean multiplayer or sharing customized towns and characters.

That's interesting to hear. So they decided to go the TellTale way?

I'll make 2 bets...

Pokemon SM will break 4 million in Japan.

DQXI will break 4 million in Japan across 3 platforms (3DS, PS4, Switch).

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Mainline DQ game was never on multiple systems. We will see sharp decline (say 30%) from DQIX to DQXI which makes it a little over 3 million on 3DS. However, the HD version of PS4 and whatever version on Switch will help sell another million.

Again, this will depend a lot on how they work out the release for all these platforms.

All 3 platforms at launch means no 4 million. You can bet on it. If you expect the game to reach 4 million then they will need to stagger the release pattern a bit. First they should release DQXI, which in this case should be able to reach atleast 3 million. Then they need to release DQXI for PS4 and Switch with a new marketing blowout that shows how it is improved from the 3DS version. Then there is a chance the game will sell 1+ million on these platforms.

If they release the PS4 and 3DS version at launch the same time, they won't get many double dippers this way.