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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?

Will the Switch be a success?


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Bluenoser

Member
It think it will be a short term success, but ultimately see the same fate as Wii U. May sell a bit more, but not by much.... well below everyone's expectations.

I can't imagine this thing selling "HD twins" numbers but I assume Nintendo is not selling this at a loss, so even if they make Wii U numbers, they won't be losing money. Specially if we take into account paid online subs.

So, I don't think it'll be seen as a success, but I don't think it'll break Nintendo.

To me, that's not what they should be aiming for after the WiiU disaster. They should be aiming to capture the market again, and so far, I think they have failed miserably. Selling outdated hardware at a premium price is a strategy to push people away, not bring them in. This would have sold 100 million if it was $199, and they probably still would have made a profit. Greed is getting in their way of success this time.
 

Apathy

Member
Depends what you consider a success. Is 1 more console than whatever the wiiu a success or is 150m a success? Where is Nintendo and everyone drawing the line? Would them successfully getting 3rd parties back but only selling 20m a success?

I don't think it will sell as bass as the Wii u but I don't think well be calling this thing a success by most standards when it's all said and done. Hell, outside of the first games third parties put out, I don't they'll stick around.
 

Kai Dracon

Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
The only thing I can offer is that Nintendo screwed up the Wii U name and introduction so badly it's unreal. People did not know the Wii U was a console. They thought it was a screen thing you bought for your Wii.

For all the issues the Switch has, people absolutely know it is a new game console from Nintendo, and in public perception Nintendo hasn't released a new console since 2006. That at least may get some attention for the Switch.
 
I'll make the outrageous prediction it sells less than Wii U right now. The Wii U had goodwill of the Wii. This one's predecessor failed consumers. And it hasn't fixed any of the mistakes... it's only making way more.
 

Holundrian

Unconfirmed Member
Sincerely, I don't know what you mean, lol. Can you explain your post? Sorry :(

giphy.gif


It's a game
 

SmokedMeat

Gamer™
I can't imagine this thing selling "HD twins" numbers but I assume Nintendo is not selling this at a loss, so even if they make Wii U numbers, they won't be losing money. Specially if we take into account paid online subs.

So, I don't think it'll be seen as a success, but I don't think it'll break Nintendo.

Not with those controller prices and Amiibos.
 

ironcreed

Banned
Gimped as a handheld

Gimped as a console



They have the audacity to charge for multiplayer on top of that.

This is all one really needs to look at to see that this thing is going to ultimately fail. But then there is the pitiful software outlook and the ridiculous prices for accessories, such as $70 for a pro controller that would put it in the price range of a PS4 Pro.
 

73V3N

Banned
I'm also confused. Non-gamers and casual gamers barely know the Nintendo Switch exists, much less all watched a press release for a new console at 9 p.m. PST on a Thursday. Either they're not so casual or they're all pretending to know what's up/acting excited to participate in office conversation.

Don't be the Red Grin Grumble of pretending to know what's going on.


Yeah cause non-gamers and casual gamers don't use facebook and twitter.

are you serious?
 
I dunno...The biggest problem I see is cost and stuff a lot of the more hardcore gamers don't like.

From a casual perspective, Switch might be a big hit.
 

Chris R

Member
Thing will do 2-3x WiiU numbers, so no, not a success. Price and lack of games are going to hurt the first year. I know I won't be purchasing one until 2019 at the earliest.
 

Markitron

Is currently staging a hunger strike outside Gearbox HQ while trying to hate them to death
The reactions to this remind me of the wii reveal thread.... if that's an indication it will sell well....

It's not.

This is all one really needs to look at to see that this thing is going to ultimately fail. But then there is the pitiful software outlook and the ridiculous prices for accessories, such as $70 for a pro controller that would put it in the price range of a PS4 Pro.

Or, if you are in Europe, make it 20 Euro more expensive than a PS4 Pro. This is without the 60-70 Euro required for Zelda as well, which is the only reason anyone would buy it at launch.
 

Anth0ny

Member
At $400 in Canada, its DOA.


Gimped as a handheld

Gimped as a console



They have the audacity to charge for multiplayer on top of that.

it really feels like the jack of all trades, master of none right now.

1. price
2. an attractive handheld
3. an attractive console

YA FUCKED UP ALL THREE NINTENDO
 

Theonik

Member
But if it were a more sensibly priced 150, no frills, just a cube and a pro controller, so people can get a Nintendo fix without all the shit and expense that comes with it.
At that point it's a WiiU slim that can't actually play WiiU games and without the tablet. Not sure if that would work. Nintendo's idea at least still seems stuck in trying to capture the Wii's success by making it its own thing. Being a cheap regular console doesn't cut it.
 
I went in with low expectations. Walked away unimpressed and, sadly, not surprised.

Nintendo has been stumbling down a path of tone-deafness in the console market for over twenty years now - and not a damn thing has changed other than the company finally having the realization that they can try to make more money in other areas of their platform like online services.

You know what? I take back my "low expectations" statement.
After the WiiU's historic failure and years of practically jack shit nothing, I did expect Nintendo to come out strong last night. I expected they realized the failure that was WiiU, essentially abandoning it years ago, and went full-speed ahead with Switch development in order to win back some of that lost market share. This led to an expectation that they'd have a bombardment of quality games and maybe even better 3rd party relations; not just for the year of 2017, but for launch.

Instead we get a $299 (US) priced system that doesn't match up on a power level to the now over three year-old PS4 and X1 (and those have similar or lesser prices PLUS pack-ins now), an as-of-now mystery priced online structure from a company that is grossly behind its competitors in that realm, overpriced controllers, low internal storage space, and worst of all - a software line-up that, aside from Zelda, frankly looks lazy and uninspired.

I was initially happy to see a new Nintendo IP in ARMS... but the more I watched, the more the gimmick started to show. Maybe after more is shown I'll change my mind, but the game looks really shallow from the first impression. 1, 2 Switch? Why isn't this game a pack-in? So much positive word of mouth with the Wii came from Wii Sports, which everyone received with the system. You could invite friends and family over and "Hey, come check this out!". A port of a 6 year old game in Skyrim that won't even make launch? A $30/$40 Super Street Fighter II HD Remix with two new (reskinned?) characters? Essentially a 'special edition' of Mario Kart 8 that will be almost 3 years old by the time of Deluxe's release? A proper 3D Mario game that not only can't make the launch, but as of now just has a vague 'Holiday 2017' release date? I see people are already fearing a delay to 2018... and I don't blame them.

I thought Nintendo might come out swinging, but instead the whole thing just kind of went off like a wet fart to me. They spent all that money in the presentation, but in the end it felt like the same old, same clueless Nintendo.
As a powerful part of my childhood in the NES/SNES days, Nintendo still commands a (albeit small) place in my heart. I was really hoping this might be a new-look Nintendo; a Nintendo that wanted to fight again. Instead, all I see is the unfortunate precedent set by the Wii: a Nintendo that's given up the fire to compete and is instead just chasing the next gimmick trying desperately to corral the casual market, hoping that their feverish fanbase continues eating this stuff up.

It didn't work for WiiU and I don't think it'll work for Switch.
 

geordiemp

Member
+ I liked the console and also the table top mode

- Both modes would need a pro controller as the mini joy things looked far too small

- Price is ridiculous for console + pro controller

- Cannot be paid online for a secondary console. Does not work,

Nintendo need an SKU with console + pro controller minus joycons for under £ 250 to be a decent home console / table top portable.

May be a success if Nintendo slash pricing in 6 months.
 
Outlook will initially seem positive due to high sales for Zelda then very quickly die. Too expensive, still not much 3rd party support, their paid subscription is worse than the competition, peripherals are too expensive, the console is horrendously underpowered.

It's lucky they have Zelda as a launch title to be honest.
 

73V3N

Banned
This is a dumb statement to make. Plenty of people saw the WiiU's failure for instance but more importantly, GAF is made of numerous posters each with different perceptions and predictions. Sure overall its a dedicated gaming community but that doesn't detract from the diversity of opinions.

Sweeping blatant criticisms under the rug by saying lol GAF is never right just comes across as a poor defense mechanism for dealing with criticism.

I even typed "GAF" cause I knewsomeone would answer with exactly the same thing you said, thanks for not disappointing me
 
I dunno...The biggest problem I see is cost and stuff a lot of the more hardcore gamers don't like.

From a casual perspective, Switch might be a big hit.

How? What hook is there? No third party support, the wii motion fad is over, casuals are not paying $300 for a couple nintendo franchises.
 

Cmagus

Member
The games look good but the hardware pricing outside the US is terrible. Personally thats the biggest issue for me. It's not that I can't afford it but I know at $500+ (console+game) I just can't justify that price. Plus the online pay service is a big turn off as well and Nintendo has had garbage online services and certainly nothing I'd want to pay for.

That conference did nothing and the switch just came off as looking the same old Nintendo,that line up did nothing and third party support is barely there.

I'll be curious to see how this does.I think it'll do better than Wii-U but not by that much.
 

wildfire

Banned
The reactions to this remind me of the wii reveal thread.... if that's an indication it will sell well....

Well if that's your benchmark I was extremely positive about the Wii and negative about the Wii U. Just follow my opinions and don't do any thinking for yourself.
 

Yazzees

Member
It's fucked. Priced too high and I don't trust it to ever drop below $250. It'll do Wii U numbers or slightly better.

Nevermind the inevitable shortages for the first year or so while everyone forgets about it.
 
Unless 1, 2, Switch or ARMS becomes the new Wii Sports, absolutely not initially. I mean I could see them turning it around ala 3DS with the Switch to some success unlike the Wii U, but the first couple months likely won't be much better than those two systems had.
 

Lady Gaia

Member
I don't see Switch as the end of the line for Nintendo consoles, but I don't think it's a Wii-style success, either. I agree with the general sentiment that it's closer to GameCube or Wii U sales than anything else. Chances are it will launch solidly enough and then rapidly fall off as people wait to hear about any post-launch titles they can't live without.

Zelda was the one must-have title for me, and I'll almost certainly play it on my Wii U. So what's next? Project Octopad Traveler piqued my interest despite looking like a repurposed 3DS project but who knows when it will ship, and whether it will be worthwhile when it does? Mario was decidedly odd and I'm still unsure of whether it looks creative or desperate. Xenoblade Chronicles 2 might be a hook if only Nintendo hadn't royally screwed up distribution of the original title, which I never played as a result. No Metroid reference at all, and the only mention of Fire Emblem is a Warriors title I wouldn't touch on a bet.

I'm not representative of their market, of course. The saving grace is that if I had a child I might not think twice about it. I know the games will be solid enough family-friendly fare to be worth it. Maybe that's enough to build a success on. Perhaps they'll even hook me in if their intro about borrowing from all their past consoles includes borrowing the N64's pre-launch price drop.
 
I think it will sell GameCube numbers (~25 million) due to a slight bump in sales from the handheld Nintendo audience willing to pay the high price.
 
Nintendo is relying too heavily on their own games to sell this and most third-party games announced so far are late ports, a problem that plagued Wii U at start and problem won't attract buyers. Yes, launch window is abysmal and Zelda alone will have to save the day.

I ask the same question someone did. What are the Nintendo devs doing for all this long? For the time Nintendo decided to make over secrecy with Switch, many of them has unannounced projects for a very long time. There's something odd about as they overlook and E3 and now to reveal it.

I'm not feeling confident at all with third-party support judging by the current announced games. Sounds like Nintendo isn't even trying.
 
But what game is convincing someone who didn't buy a WiiU to buy a Switch?

Like, who says, "man, the WiiU didn't have anything I want to play... but this Switch! This thing has the games I want!"
This is a very good question and one that applies to me. I know I'm in the minority because I don't care about platformers/party games/kart/sports, so for me "Nintendo" means Zelda, Metroid, and whatever new IP they come up that piques my interest (Pikmin, Advance Wars, Mario & Luigi/Mario RPGs, etc). So right now they have Breath of the Wild which seems like a must play for me, and all they need now is a proper Metroid (not federation force or pinball or whatever) and I'll be sold. That's something the Wii U didn't have (sure, it'll have Zelda now, but will it have Metroid?).

There's another issue that's a bit of a turn off for me and it's the handheld stuff. I've only owned two gaming handhelds in my life: GBA SP (the king!) and Vita. I'm not a handheld guy; I just can't find the time to play in a handheld if I have a larger screen. To make matters "worse", I work from home, which means I always have a larger screen to play in. I hate that I would be paying extra for a feature that I will rarely (if ever) use. Hell, I tried remote play with the Vita to play Uncharted/Bloodborne in bed and once the novelty wore off I decided I would rather play that on my comfy couch and TV.
 
I think it'll do slightly better than the Wii U by the end of its life due to Nintendo scrambling and throwing every penny at it. But at this point I'm also expecting them to kill themselves doing that.
 

Jyrii

Banned
Biggest issue is the price imo. I also don't see Nintendo seeing much 3rd party support unless they pay for it.

I think it will sell units somewhere between Wii U and Gamecube.

Personally it might be the first Nintendo console I buy since NES, but it still depends highly on the virtual console catalog and whether it is tight to account or console.
 
By the way.. this thing is supposed to play handheld Nintendo games, right? That was my impression prior to the event, but not a single handheld port nor game was announced?
 
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