It think it will be a short term success, but ultimately see the same fate as Wii U. May sell a bit more, but not by much.... well below everyone's expectations.
To me, that's not what they should be aiming for after the WiiU disaster. They should be aiming to capture the market again, and so far, I think they have failed miserably. Selling outdated hardware at a premium price is a strategy to push people away, not bring them in. This would have sold 100 million if it was $199, and they probably still would have made a profit. Greed is getting in their way of success this time.
I can't imagine this thing selling "HD twins" numbers but I assume Nintendo is not selling this at a loss, so even if they make Wii U numbers, they won't be losing money. Specially if we take into account paid online subs.
So, I don't think it'll be seen as a success, but I don't think it'll break Nintendo.
To me, that's not what they should be aiming for after the WiiU disaster. They should be aiming to capture the market again, and so far, I think they have failed miserably. Selling outdated hardware at a premium price is a strategy to push people away, not bring them in. This would have sold 100 million if it was $199, and they probably still would have made a profit. Greed is getting in their way of success this time.