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[Izayoi]

Monster Hunter came out on the Wii U though?

Once upon a time. It had seemed that console releases were again dead for MonHun, but I imagine that will change with the Switch. Not to mention that it was merely a port (albeit a very solid one), and the next game will presumably be an original title.

They could be huge. Only time will tell how they do on a $300 hybrid though as they (especially Pokemon) got huge on sub $200 portables. Even 3DS sold like shit until it got the big price drop to $180--but didn't get a new Pokemon before then, obviously, to see if that would have moved $250 units.

Pokemon has the ability to move consoles, even at a high price. At $300, it might not be a HUGE driving force, but I imagine the price will have dropped by the time we get a mainline sequel (as opposed to a Sun/Moon port).

 

[Schopenhauerian]

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2017-01-12-developers-think-switch-can-best-wii-u-survey
...some developers are already optimistic about the Switch, at least in how it will compare to the Wii U. That's according to the Game Developers Conference's fifth annual State of the Industry Survey, which was taken by more than 4,500 developers (primarily in North America and Europe) over a three-week period in November and December... According to GDC organizers, about 50% of those sold said they thought the Switch would outsell its predecessor, the Wii U, which had an installed base of 13.36 million heading into the last holiday sales season... some 14% of respondents said they didn't think the Switch would even do that well. The remaining roughly 37% of developers were apparently not ready to hazard a guess...

From among the 64% of Game Developers who were willing to venture an opinion, in the Nov/Dec 2016 survey: 78% said the Switch will outsell the Wii U, 22% said it will not.

From among those who have answered thus far here at GAF: 59% say the Switch will do better than the Wii U, 41% say that it will not.

 

[orthodoxy1095]

From among the 64% of Game Developers who were willing to venture an opinion, in the Nov/Dec 2016 survey: 78% said the Switch will outsell the Wii U, 22% said it will not.

From among those who have answered thus far here at GAF: 59% say the Switch will do better than the Wii U, 41% say that it will not.

I think we should take any GAF poll that includes a "theme park company" option with a gigantic grain of salt. I shit-voted for that just for lols.

 

[jroc74]

Are we 1000% sure that it will? I mean it would be hard not to, but still.

It has to. It replaces the 3DS also. If ppl only interested in handheld gaming bought one it will outsell the Wii U.

 

[Izayoi]

It has to. It replaces the 3DS also. If ppl only interested in handheld gaming bought one it will outsell the Wii U.

Yeah... I'm not sure why we are losing perspective on that. Nintendo is merging their handheld and home console platforms.

It's very logical, and I think that ultimately, it will sell very well.

 

[hao chi]

I hear you but in fairness people have been saying this about Pokémon and mainline Nintendo consoles since the N64.

'If Nintendo chose to release a fully featured Pokémon game on X, boy the console war would be over'

And yet here were are. I do think decent ports of the most recent ones will hit and be successful though, don't get me wrong.

None of those consoles were intended as replacements for the handheld platforms.


Edit:

I want it to succeed, and I want to get one (although I won't be buying one at launch), however I reckon it will fall somewhere between WiiU and Gamecube numbers, which I wouldn't call a success.

There aren't enough games announced for how close to launch it is. Especially console exclusive titles (not WiiU ports). The online seems a mess, did they really have to make the one NES/SNES game that comes with the subscription only available for that month? And it's overpriced and underpowered for how much it costs (and those accessory prices)

For me to feel sorted with everything with Switch I'd need to get this:

Plus an SD card taking it over £500. Granted I wouldn't feel the need for the second joycons/pro controller day one. But I'd want to thet them sooner rather than later.

For the same price you can get this:

I don't really see a situation where anyone other than the die hard Nintendo fans (of which there aren't enough anymore to make Switch a success) would choose Switch over the other cheaper, more powerful consoles.


Even as a current PS4 owner, prior to the reveal I thought Switch would be my easy first choice for a second console. As it stands a £200 xbox one S with its library, backwards compatibility and UHD Blu ray support seems the more appealing.

I hope I'm wrong and Switch is a runaway success but at the moment I can't see it happening.

Since you mentioned needing an SD card for the Switch, I'd argue that you should also factor in the cost of upgrading storage space on the PS4 and X1. 500 GB's is far too little for consoles that require you to install every game; I filled up my PS4's hard drive in half a year, and I wasn't even going crazy with buying games. Plus, in the PS4's case, if you want to transfer everything over (which I did so I wouldn't lose PT), you'll need two additional hard drives for the transfer (one to transfer your old hard drive's data to the new hard drive, as well as the one you'll be putting in your system).

I do agree that Nintendo should drop the price ASAP though. I'd like it if they could get it to $250 with 1 2 Switch or some other game included by the holiday season. At the very least, the Switch is supposedly in a better position for future price drops than the Wii U.

 

[AdmiralMikey]

Within the next few years, I predict we'll see the shift of Nintendo from the last place 1st party video game publisher to the first place 3rd party video game publisher. Their games will be excellent, their IP is top notch and they'll be an entertainment company that reaches far beyond putting video games on their own hardware platforms.

 

[Reorx]

I would be afraid if this was only a stationary console, but as a hybrid handheld/console and thus with Pokemon and all the Nintendo IP's, I can see the switch selling 50-60 mio.

 

[DoT2]

I actually think this system will succeed, in a big way. Lots of casuals around me seem to be really interested, not just casuals, even my gamer friends who have never really shown interest in Nintendo products seem to be interested as well.

I'm interested to see where this will lead Nintendo, but I am pretty positive this system will be successful, I do think it is expensive though. Time will tell.

 

[The Hermit]

Reading this thread and the astonishingly terrible prediction level of the GAF conglomerate, I change my vote and think this will be a Wii-style success.

 

[AdventureRacing]

I'm slowly coming around on it now that the dust has settled. The more I hear and read about it the more I feel positive about it. I don't think it will be a high success but I think it will be closer to the 3DS than the wii U. I think if Nintendo plays there cards right it could beat the 3DS as well.

The wii U comparisons just make no sense to me. The switch is already as cheap as the wii U and is likely to drop in price a decent amount over time. The reaction to the switch has already been far more positive than the wii U and there is far less brand confusion.

The software on the switch will shame the wii U. The wii U never even got a Pokemon or animal crossing game. Plus most of its big releases (NSMB, mario kart, smash bros) had extremely similar games released on the 3DS hurting sales. It didn't get a portable monster hunter. It didn't get yokai watch. It didn't get a mainline dragon quest.

I don't think the switch is guaranteed to be a success but I do think it's guaranteed to beat the wii U and fairly comfortably at that. How far past that the switch goes depends on a lot of factors many of which can't be known right now.

 

[Izayoi]

Within the next few years, I predict we'll see the shift of Nintendo from the last place 1st party video game publisher to the first place 3rd party video game publisher. Their games will be excellent, their IP is top notch and they'll be an entertainment company that reaches far beyond putting video games on their own hardware platforms.

So you think that they will stop producing hardware soon?

 

[squidyj]

I actually think this system will succeed, in a big way. Lots of casuals around me seem to be really interested, not just casuals, even my gamer friends who have never really shown interest in Nintendo products seem to be interested as well.

I'm interested to see where this will lead Nintendo, but I am pretty positive this system will be successful, I do think it is expensive though. Time will tell.

how much do they actually know about it?

 

[TS-08]

I hear you but in fairness people have been saying this about Pokémon and mainline Nintendo consoles since the N64.

'If Nintendo chose to release a fully featured Pokémon game on X, boy the console war would be over'

And yet here were are. I do think decent ports of the most recent ones will hit and be successful though, don't get me wrong.

But a main Pokemon RPG has never hit a Nintendo console before, so I'm not sure what you mean. But I'll say that I don't think Pokemon alone will make the Switch some major success, even if I do think it practically guarantees it will do better than the Wii U.

 

[invaderzim69]

I think it will sell a little more than the Wii U, I mean like 10-15 million more, but that's my opinion.

 

[Into the Light]

Here's my prediction of how everything will go down with the Switch:

-Preorders will sell out
-It will be difficult to find for a month or two
-Every sales thread on here for the first 2 months will inevitably include snarky people posting some variation of "But I thought Nintendo was doomed?" in the same vein as those that post "but I thought console gaming was dead" in NPD threads during the first year of PS4/XB1.
-It will get some decent play on mainstream media (ie. Today show, etc), but the gaming press will largely be 'ho-hum' on it.
-Once the Nintendo hardcores get their console, sales will slow down.
-Lack of games means lack of news
-No more mainstream media since it isn't 'new'
-Pay online begins, and most multiplayer games (like the 3 that will be out) will be barren wastelands with low populations.
-Holiday 2017 rolls around. It's decent but much more in line with first year gamecube/wii u holidays. Behind the PS4, and 3rd place in NPD.

At this point, if there isn't a major shift it's all downhill. Either a massive price drop, unprecedented influx of first party games or a huge wave of third party support are the only things that possibly save it.

-Sales stagnate in 2018
-Holiday 2018 it looks much more like the Wii U and the same discussions start popping up every where (ie. Should Nintendo go 3rd party? etc etc)

If I had to bet, I would bet on you.

 

[Bowl0l]

Since you mentioned needing an SD card for the Switch, I'd argue that you should also factor in the cost of upgrading storage space on the PS4 and X1. 500 GB's is far too little for consoles that require you to install every game; I filled up my PS4's hard drive in half a year, and I wasn't even going crazy with buying games. Plus, in the PS4's case, if you want to transfer everything over (which I did so I wouldn't lose PT), you'll need two additional hard drives for the transfer (one to transfer your old hard drive's data to the new hard drive, as well as the one you'll be putting in your system).

Zelda (13GB) BoTW digital download used up almost half the Switch storage (25GB). I didn't see any PS4 games taking up half the default 500 GB storage yet. It's a bad portable if you have to drag your cart around.

 

[evilromero]

No, no. In this thread we conveniently ignore huge mobile franchises like Pokemon and Monster Hunter so that we can support our "doomed" narrative.

Get it right!

Or we conveniently ignore the fact that Nintendo has been mismanaging their console business for nearly a decade and have continually provided evidence that things aren't getting any better.

My best guess based on the conference content and announcements only? I don't think it will do particularly well. It has an even poorer showing of launch window software than the Wii or Wii U, lacking in several key areas like racing, FPS and sports (is FIFA it?).

 

[MulderYuffie]

Wii u tier

 

[OEM]

"I can't believe Nintendo is shipping a game console with a controller that can't be charged while you play it. That is 100% unprecedented."

Is this true? lol

 

[Deleted member 1235]

I think it has a chance to catch peoples imaginations. Arms better be good, paid online is gonna hurt it's chances though I think.

I guess Wii>switch>N64

And that feels like a wild gamble

 

[hao chi]

Zelda (13GB) BoTW digital download used up almost half the Switch storage (25GB). I didn't see any PS4 games taking up half the default 500 GB storage yet. It's a bad portable if you have to drag your cart around.

Depends on how you use it. I get my 3DS games physically whenever I can, and I just keep all my games in a single case that I toss in my bag.

If you're wanting to download retail games, yeah, the Switch's memory will fill up in no time. The PS4's and X1's memory will fill up fairly fast regardless of whether you prefer digital or physical.

I'm not trying to say the Switch is superior in this regard (hell, the memory will likely eventually be filled up by patches and a few pieces of DLC, which to the credit of the PS4 and X1, that can't be said about either system under normal use). I'm just pointing out that from my experience, consoles and handhelds never come with enough memory out of the box. I've had to upgrade the memory on my 360, Wii, PS3, 3DS, Vita, Wii U, and PS4; despite buying the model with the largest amount of memory at the time of purchase.

 

[Peléo]

It's funny how the hybrid nature of the Switch makes comparisons with Nintendo previously released consoles hard.

DS: 150m
GB: 120m
Wii: 100m
GBA: 80m
NES: 60m
3DS: 55m
SNES: 50m
Switch
N64: 35m
GC: 20m
WiiU: 10m

 

[Kebiinu]

I absolutely can not wait for the crow to be served, y'all swear you know everything. Lmao.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

Yeah... I'm not sure why we are losing perspective on that. Nintendo is merging their handheld and home console platforms.

It's very logical, and I think that ultimately, it will sell very well.

It's important to also keep perspective that the handheld market is dying.

From last gen to this gen, the amount of people who bought a DS or PSP (or both) added up to about 230M in combined sales. The amount of people who bought a 3DS or a Vita (or both) added up to about 80M in combined sales.

If we get another precipitous drop in that range for the Switch era, that might mean that only 24 or 25 million people who bought a 3DS or Vita stick around for the Switch. If the console crowd doesn't latch on like they didn't for the WiiU, that leaves Nintendo doing Gamecube numbers in a (probably) worst case scenario.

I absolutely can not wait for the crow to be served, y'all swear you know everything. Lmao.

People making predictions in a prediction thread = people who swear they know everything.

Some people get really emotional when others doubt their favorite video game companies, I guess.

 

[greendublin]

Sadly, no. Good tech and concept like Vita was, but games catalog looks really anemic. Third party support is weak, presumably no AAA current gen games day and date, Wii U has Zelda BOTW & Kart is marginally improved but $60. First party can't develop fast enough to keep it alive, look at Wii U's last two years of releases - how do we expect this to dramatically change?

Asking $300 is a lot for the current offerings. I want to play Mario Odyssey but I feel like the weaknesses indicate I will be able to get Switch for $200 in 2018. Will be curious to see to what level they kill 3DS because that could bolster Switch, I just don't know if they will. I think its install base will land closer to Wii U than GameCube before it is put to pasture in 2020.

Bring Octopath Traveler to other platforms pls.

 

[Lexxism]

"I can't believe Nintendo is shipping a game console with a controller that can't be charged while you play it. That is 100% unprecedented."

Is this true? lol

You can. You just need to place the joycons back to the console to charge. Bear in my that the controller (L/R joycons) will last 20 hours

 

[dcx4610]

The Wii U was a console that tried to be portable. The Switch is a portable that tries to be a console. They are repeating the same mistakes.

The Wii U should have been bundled with a Pro Contoller and a Wiimote/Nunchuck and nothing more. Meanwhile the Switch should be a portable with a dock sold separately if you want to use it on your TV.

As a handheld, the Switch is awesome. As a console, it's weak and will be compared to the PS4 and Xbox One which are much more powerful and the same price. If they sold it as a portable that you can dock if you really want to, I think the reception would have been a lot more positive.

 

[NOLA_Gaffer]

I think the system will fall somewhere between the Wii U and Gamecube in terms of success, matching the Gamecube at the best.

Nintendo needs to tighten their belt and make sure their software and hardware is as profitable as possible to weather the storm.

 

[Cheerilee]

"I can't believe Nintendo is shipping a game console with a controller that can't be charged while you play it. That is 100% unprecedented."

Is this true? lol

The little controllers are battery-powered wireless controllers that by default draw their power from the main Switch unit (which is also battery powered).

If you want to play Switch on your TV as if it were a home console, you have to dock the main unit, remove the little controllers, and then attach them to the ugly-controller base. In this form, the batteries in the little controllers cannot charge. Every time you finish playing you're supposed to remove the little controllers from the ugly-controller base and reattach them to the docked Switch unit so that they can charge until the next time you're ready to play. Attach, remove, attach, remove, attach attach attach remove remove remove, every time you play, because this is what Switch is all about. Isn't attaching and removing things fun?

If you would like an ugly-controller base that is capable of staying in one configuration and simply plugging into power so that it can charge the little controllers, Nintendo has one of those available, and it apparently looks exactly like the one that they give you for free (included in the box with Switch), but the one that's capable of charging costs extra money. Because fuck you, give me money.

 

[III-V]

It's funny how the hybrid nature of the Switch makes comparisons with Nintendo previously released consoles hard.

DS: 150m
GB: 120m
Wii: 100m
GBA: 80m
NES: 60m
3DS: 55m
SNES: 50m
Switch
N64: 35m
GC: 20m
WiiU: 10m

I wonder what that would look like with the price in 2016 dollars next to each console...

 

[AdventureRacing]

The Wii U was a console that tried to be portable. The Switch is a portable that tries to be a console. They are repeating the same mistakes.

The Wii U should have been bundled with a Pro Contoller and a Wiimote/Nunchuck and nothing more. Meanwhile the Switch should be a portable with a dock sold separately if you want to use it on your TV.

As a handheld, the Switch is awesome. As a console, it's weak and will be compared to the PS4 and Xbox One which are much more powerful and the same price. If they sold it as a portable that you can dock if you really want to, I think the reception would have been a lot more positive.

That really oversimplifies the wii U's problems. The wii U was overpriced and underpowered for a home console and didn't have the portability to make up for that. It also was poorly set up for future price cuts and has remained expensive throughout its life span.

The branding of the wii U was poor. Many people didn't know it was a new console and Nintendo couldn't really get across the pros of the console. That plus it looked cheap compared to the switch.

It's software line-up was anemic. It never got animal crossing or Pokemon. It never got dragon quest. It didn't get a mainline handheld monster hunter. The list goes on, the switch will have a FAR better line-up than the wii U. It also won't see most of its big releases get a near identical version on a more popular platform.

There are plenty more issues as well. Switch has it's own problems but it's not repeating the same mistakes as the wii U.

 

[Drackhorn]

It has to. It replaces the 3DS also. If ppl only interested in handheld gaming bought one it will outsell the Wii U.

It's bigger than the more portable and pocketable 3DS. It will be interesting to see how Japanese gamers respond to that fact.

 

[onemanasylum]

After sleeping on it, I think it will do better then wii-u, but still not a big success, gamecube like numbers i guess.

 

[Interfectum]

Here's my prediction of how everything will go down with the Switch:

-Preorders will sell out
-It will be difficult to find for a month or two
-Every sales thread on here for the first 2 months will inevitably include snarky people posting some variation of "But I thought Nintendo was doomed?" in the same vein as those that post "but I thought console gaming was dead" in NPD threads during the first year of PS4/XB1.
-It will get some decent play on mainstream media (ie. Today show, etc), but the gaming press will largely be 'ho-hum' on it.
-Once the Nintendo hardcores get their console, sales will slow down.
-Lack of games means lack of news
-No more mainstream media since it isn't 'new'
-Pay online begins, and most multiplayer games (like the 3 that will be out) will be barren wastelands with low populations.
-Holiday 2017 rolls around. It's decent but much more in line with first year gamecube/wii u holidays. Behind the PS4, and 3rd place in NPD.

At this point, if there isn't a major shift it's all downhill. Either a massive price drop, unprecedented influx of first party games or a huge wave of third party support are the only things that possibly save it.

-Sales stagnate in 2018
-Holiday 2018 it looks much more like the Wii U and the same discussions start popping up every where (ie. Should Nintendo go 3rd party? etc etc)

Yup, this.

 

[orthodoxy1095]

Here's my prediction of how everything will go down with the Switch:

-Preorders will sell out
-It will be difficult to find for a month or two
-Every sales thread on here for the first 2 months will inevitably include snarky people posting some variation of "But I thought Nintendo was doomed?" in the same vein as those that post "but I thought console gaming was dead" in NPD threads during the first year of PS4/XB1.
-It will get some decent play on mainstream media (ie. Today show, etc), but the gaming press will largely be 'ho-hum' on it.
-Once the Nintendo hardcores get their console, sales will slow down.
-Lack of games means lack of news
-No more mainstream media since it isn't 'new'
-Pay online begins, and most multiplayer games (like the 3 that will be out) will be barren wastelands with low populations.
-Holiday 2017 rolls around. It's decent but much more in line with first year gamecube/wii u holidays. Behind the PS4, and 3rd place in NPD.

At this point, if there isn't a major shift it's all downhill. Either a massive price drop, unprecedented influx of first party games or a huge wave of third party support are the only things that possibly save it.

-Sales stagnate in 2018
-Holiday 2018 it looks much more like the Wii U and the same discussions start popping up every where (ie. Should Nintendo go 3rd party? etc etc)

This is exactly what's going to happen. Sales-threads should probably be avoided for a few months after the Switch launch.

 

[anothertech]

Here's my prediction of how everything will go down with the Switch:

-Preorders will sell out
-It will be difficult to find for a month or two
-Every sales thread on here for the first 2 months will inevitably include snarky people posting some variation of "But I thought Nintendo was doomed?" in the same vein as those that post "but I thought console gaming was dead" in NPD threads during the first year of PS4/XB1.
-It will get some decent play on mainstream media (ie. Today show, etc), but the gaming press will largely be 'ho-hum' on it.
-Once the Nintendo hardcores get their console, sales will slow down.
-Lack of games means lack of news
-No more mainstream media since it isn't 'new'
-Pay online begins, and most multiplayer games (like the 3 that will be out) will be barren wastelands with low populations.
-Holiday 2017 rolls around. It's decent but much more in line with first year gamecube/wii u holidays. Behind the PS4, and 3rd place in NPD.

At this point, if there isn't a major shift it's all downhill. Either a massive price drop, unprecedented influx of first party games or a huge wave of third party support are the only things that possibly save it.

-Sales stagnate in 2018
-Holiday 2018 it looks much more like the Wii U and the same discussions start popping up every where (ie. Should Nintendo go 3rd party? etc etc)

Cheezits, it's like looking through a window into the future.

Very realistic. Depressingly so.

 

[Lebneney]

I think it'll do decent. It's all going to depend on how Nintendo markets it and if they can get the support that they need (in terms of both games and customers).

In my personal experience, I was not interested in the Wii U, but the Switch has me excited. I've always wanted to have a tablet thing powerful enough to travel with and play games on, especially when my ultrabook and Vita can't fit that role. Plus the iPad would be a suitable replacement, but baby actual controllers on the system itself is what sold me. That and the fact that I can play multiplayer with whoever whenever I want.

Just my two cents.

Edit: But I mean I bought a Vita... soooooooo

 

[Moze]

I guess it will depend on how Japan takes to it. We know Japan likes their handhelds, but will they even like this? It's barely a handheld and could be described more accurately as a portable home console. Nothing about this system is anything like the 3ds or previous Nintendo handhelds from what we have seen.

It seems like they are trying to attract a pretty niche audience with this. A huge handheld with home console games. Isn't that what the Vita tried and failed to do? Of course the quality of games will be better on the Switch, but they are still trying to attract the same audience. It's an audience that barely exists. The majority of people do not want that. They want a more powerful console that gets plugged into the TV and stays there for the rest of its life. They might have a cheap handheld on the side to play Pokemon.

 

[Arkam]

It's bigger than the more portable and pocketable 3DS. It will be interesting to see how Japanese gamers respond to that fact.

Unlike some GAF members teh Japanese gamers will understand teh joy cons come OFF.

 

[YaGaMi]

As a console no, if people end up taking its a 3DS successor then maybe yes.

 

[Caelus]

Have you guys seen the recent German commercial for the Switch?

I think the overall messaging and style of the console comes across much more clear, and it looks like a cooler piece of kit.

I think it will do much better than the Wii U, not sure what else to think beyond that, but at the very least people won't interpret this as a Wii accessory - LOL.

 

[Schopenhauerian]

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2017-01-12-developers-think-switch-can-best-wii-u-survey
...some developers are already optimistic about the Switch, at least in how it will compare to the Wii U. That's according to the Game Developers Conference's fifth annual State of the Industry Survey, which was taken by more than 4,500 developers (primarily in North America and Europe) over a three-week period in November and December... According to GDC organizers, about 50% of those sold said they thought the Switch would outsell its predecessor, the Wii U, which had an installed base of 13.36 million heading into the last holiday sales season... some 14% of respondents said they didn't think the Switch would even do that well. The remaining roughly 37% of developers were apparently not ready to hazard a guess...

From among the 64% of Game Developers who were willing to venture an opinion, in the Nov/Dec 2016 survey: 78% said the Switch will outsell the Wii U, 22% said it will not.

From among those who have answered thus far here at GAF: 59% say the Switch will do better than the Wii U, 41% say that it will not.

I think we should take any GAF poll that includes a "theme park company" option with a gigantic grain of salt. I shit-voted for that just for lols.

Aye, but what is GAF, if not the fierce competition between the will to venture an opinion, and the will to lol?

 

[PapaEmeritus]

It depends on a few factors, but let's be real here. if they announce an HD fully featured Pokémon game you can play on the go and on your TV the Switch will be a megaton hit

Plus a price drop and deluxe ports of Wii U games that people missed out on. It's got a chance to be huge

Switch will be huge- and not if they release Pokémon/ when they release Pokémon and it's the only place to play it. Millions and millions sold. By that time maybe a price cut as well. Not talking "stars" but a new switch exclusive

 

[Drackhorn]

Unlike some GAF members teh Japanese gamers will understand teh joy cons come OFF.

Still have to carry them with you.

 

[Zeyphersan]

I don't know what to vote, Thor 2 isn't an option

 

[Toparaman]

I don't know what to vote, Thor 2 isn't an option

Thor 2 is always an option in your heart.

 

[Suburban Thug]

Here's my prediction of how everything will go down with the Switch:

-Preorders will sell out
-It will be difficult to find for a month or two
-Every sales thread on here for the first 2 months will inevitably include snarky people posting some variation of "But I thought Nintendo was doomed?" in the same vein as those that post "but I thought console gaming was dead" in NPD threads during the first year of PS4/XB1.
-It will get some decent play on mainstream media (ie. Today show, etc), but the gaming press will largely be 'ho-hum' on it.
-Once the Nintendo hardcores get their console, sales will slow down.
-Lack of games means lack of news
-No more mainstream media since it isn't 'new'
-Pay online begins, and most multiplayer games (like the 3 that will be out) will be barren wastelands with low populations.
-Holiday 2017 rolls around. It's decent but much more in line with first year gamecube/wii u holidays. Behind the PS4, and 3rd place in NPD.

At this point, if there isn't a major shift it's all downhill. Either a massive price drop, unprecedented influx of first party games or a huge wave of third party support are the only things that possibly save it.

-Sales stagnate in 2018
-Holiday 2018 it looks much more like the Wii U and the same discussions start popping up every where (ie. Should Nintendo go 3rd party? etc etc)

Good post, my thoughts exactly.

 

[Kacho]

It's funny how the hybrid nature of the Switch makes comparisons with Nintendo previously released consoles hard.

DS: 150m
GB: 120m
Wii: 100m
GBA: 80m
NES: 60m
3DS: 55m
SNES: 50m
Switch
N64: 35m
GC: 20m
WiiU: 10m

You know...maybe this thing will do alright after all. I'm dying to see how this does in Japan once the big hitters start dropping.

 

[Peléo]

I wonder what that would look like with the price in 2016 dollars next to each console...

DS......150m - $200
GB.....120m - $175
Wii......100m - $300
GBA....80m - $125
NES....60m - $445
3DS.....55m - $275
SNES..50m - $350
Switch.45m - $300
N64.....35m - $300
GC......20m - $275
WiiU....10m - $325

Source: http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/