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All on the Switch!
With an aggresive pirce cut that I think Switch won't have (if the situation repeats, something that I won't think it will happen).
I think Switch will sell fine but not like other cheaper systems. So I think 4 million is a bit difficult to reach. But we will see.
Wait, u no believe in Hori there?^_^ This is the year to BELIEVE BABY.^^
i'm in agreement with you actually. square enix really needs something for the 30th anniversary of final fantasy, so the smart money is rebranding this as final fantasy xvi.
Jon Carter
Member
PREDICTION LEAGUE YEAR 2017
Predict how much these titles will sell this year (from Dec 26, 2016 to Dec 31, 2017):
[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware - 1,589,068
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware - 2,987,452
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware - 825,387
[NSW + WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 709,235
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross - 1,536,580
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 698,368
[NSW] Splatoon 2 - 1,236,780
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 838,201
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2,137,859
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 864,689
Predict how much these titles will sell this year (from Dec 26, 2016 to Dec 31, 2017):
[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware - 1,589,068
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware - 2,987,452
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware - 825,387
[NSW + WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 709,235
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross - 1,536,580
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 698,368
[NSW] Splatoon 2 - 1,236,780
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 838,201
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2,137,859
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 864,689
So the first major event for FE Heroes is now live, and features a special character not available anywhere else. Map is really challenging, and uses quite a bit of stamina (15 on Hard, with 50 being what you have when full...)
Yeah, they're gonna sell loads of stamina potions this week-end, since you cannot use items to revive your characters on the map (unlike other Hero Battles). Basically, you have to restart if you lose even one character, and every attempt uses stamina).
Yeah, they're gonna sell loads of stamina potions this week-end, since you cannot use items to revive your characters on the map (unlike other Hero Battles). Basically, you have to restart if you lose even one character, and every attempt uses stamina).
Yup, forgot to mention the "no revive items" rule.
1st Course
Member
PREDICTION LEAGUE YEAR 2017
Predict how much these titles will sell this year (from Dec 26, 2016 to Dec 31, 2017):
[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware - 1600k
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware - 3500k
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware - 1400k
[NSW + WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 700k
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross - 2500k
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 800k
[NSW] Splatoon 2 - 1300k
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 500k
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 1500k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 800k
[NSW] Dragon Quest XI - 1000k
Predict how much these titles will sell this year (from Dec 26, 2016 to Dec 31, 2017):
[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware - 1600k
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware - 3500k
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware - 1400k
[NSW + WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 700k
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross - 2500k
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 800k
[NSW] Splatoon 2 - 1300k
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 500k
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 1500k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 800k
[NSW] Dragon Quest XI - 1000k
1st Course
Member
Ōkami;230052437 said:
Yeah and imo the Switch has the strongest first year lineup of any Nintendo system ever (Zelda, Mario, Splatoon, DQ, and there def will be more)
Broken Hope
Member
Just out of interest what do people think will be pushing Switch sales world wide? Zelda has never been a sales juggernaut, even on the Wii with its hardware numbers it's still only like 7-8 million right?
So ~60% shipment for opening week?
Zelda is a system seller even if it sells less LTD than other titles. 1-2 Switch is the only other title that could push the system for a more casual audience.
I don't think there's any possibility to measure this but I always thought that 3D Mario titles are also better system sellers than 2D Mario titles so I expect another push for Switch on Christmas with Mario Odyssey.
November 2006 NPD:
Wii - 476k
Twilight Princess (Wii) - 412k
December 2006 NPD:
Wii - 604k
Twilight Princess (Wii) - 519k
Twilight Princess (GC) - 533k
January 2007 NPD:
Wii - 436k
Twilight Princess (Wii) - 189k
Twilight Princess (GC) - 144k
February 2007 NPD:
Wii - 335k
Twilight Princess (Wii) - 130k
Twilight Princess (GC) - 55k
"Never been a sales juggernaut" :lol
Earthpainting
Member
If the 3DS and PS4 versions indeed release on the same day, then I can see this being a reality. That said, I still see a possibility that the 3DS version gets released in 2017, and the home console one being pushed to 2018. It allows the game to technically meet its target, while also giving the other version the extra time it seems to be needing. Setting up a double-dipping scenario would also help justify their splurging on multiple versions of the same game too.
With an aggressive price cut and almost zero important software until November.
The point was, unlike GBA and PS2, 3DS comparison misses holiday sales because it launched in February and not March, not that Switch will sell 4m until December. PS2 suffered from major shortage at holidays by the way, its sales could be much bigger for first year.
If NSMBU is supposed to be a much bigger system seller than Breath of the Wild anything is possible.
Horii previously stated they're going with a simultaneous release to avoid spoilers (so that, in your example, players on home consoles aren't spoiled by players on 3DS). So I don't think a staggered release is going to happen.
Broken Hope
Member
Look at the LTD vs the install base of the console.
People expecting the Switch to sell millions based on Zelda look to be disappointed.
Graphics Horse
Member
Who is actually saying this?
Broken Hope
Member
There's plenty of people expecting the Switch to sell amazing in its first year and saying launch lineup doesn't matter due to Zelda.
Graphics Horse
Member
But you're making a point of connecting it to life to date sales, who is saying that lifetime sales will be high because Zelda?
I'm looking at it. Almost 2 million Wii units in the first 4 months. More than half bought Zelda. That's in the US alone. Millions of Wii were sold in the first year worldwide, and Zelda contribute significantly to that.
the launch lineup really doesn't matter due to zelda. the first two months will probably be relatively fine to expectations (which seem reasonable from nintendo to be absolutely fair). mario kart is late april and that's the first i would expect acts as a mainstream title.
Broken Hope
Member
No my connecting to LTD was because someone posted first week sales as a suggestion Zelda was a sales juggernaut when LTD sales don't suggest that at all.
Do you see the numbers you quoted?
Who is that lol.O_O Splatoon 2 is the saviour this machine will need the most lol.^^
I am confused on what he wanted to say lol. I mean, don't he see the attach rate number there.O_O
It's going to be much higher than 50% for the first 3 months, considering there's nothing else to fucking buy until Mario Kart 8 Deluxe comes out almost 2 months later.
Why u diss Supa Bombaman Rrrrr.T_T
Nintendo must be sooo happy for Duckroll patronage in buying both the game at launch lol.^^
Only you will buy Switch?
At least in Singapore, the only Switch launch set they can buy is the one with those two game bundled in lol.^^
I'm not dissing it, but no one is buying a Switch just to play Bomberman. The vast majority of Switch buyers in the first two months will be buying it to play Zelda. The bulk of the remainder will be the weirdos who want to play Baby.
Jon Carter
Member
Maybe this time the 100% will actually play it.
2018 is late for a big 3DS game to release even in japan
2018 probably is for the west and no 3DS version for there
At least there is me lol.^^ I maybe not buying Switch at launch tx to no more PO stock here but i sure will get Bomba man first.^^
I don't see why that would matter. The 3DS will still have an install base of 24 million+ in Japan, and the 3DS version of DQXI is actually unique. Don't forget that the original DS also got new Pokemon games over a year after the 3DS had launched.
test_account
XP-39C²
Not sure about tons of appealing software, but maybe better than the 3DS at least.
Splatoon 2 local multiplayer is also a wildcard, in my opinion. It will be popular, but i'm not sure if theres millions of people out there not interesting in Splatoon at this point, but will be because of added local multiplayer. Splatoon is a versus game while MH is a co-op game, but we'll see how things turn out =)
RocknRola
Member
Out of curiosity, needs 15k for what? To not fall behind the PS3 before week 174? If so, it seems unlikley at this point
Well, Splatoon 1 was huge in Japan, despite being on an eminently unappealing home console in a region that doesn't like home consoles to begin with. Placing the sequel on a vastly more appealing handheld console could certainly give it the opportunity to do big numbers. If the Switch takes off in a big way in Japan, the release of Splatoon 2 is when I'm expecting it to happen.
Out of curiosity, needs 15k for what? To not fall behind the PS3 before week 174? If so, it seems unlikley at this point
you're forgetting about new baseline <5k for ps4 when it dies in march
RocknRola
Member
test_account
XP-39C²
Sure, i was just wondering about local play in specific, if that in itself will bring millions of more people into the game.