No they would properly label it as a Dragon Quest direct if they were going to drop a reveal of that magnitude.
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No they would properly label it as a Dragon Quest direct if they were going to drop a reveal of that magnitude.
The right time for SE to announce the Switch port would be when the PS4 version sales are starting to slow down. So definitely not before release.
The best way for Nintendo to ensure getting DQXI on Switch at launch would be to provide 3DS emulation. Even if they don't, the best selling version will still be on a Nintendo platform.
Lack of info for Switch version should make it clear its development is behind the other 2. If SE indeed wants to launch a difference version and not a PS4 and/or 3DS port it will take even longer. They simply aren't sure yet.
Yes but for some reason people in here can't help panicking for no reason, or expecting the Switch version which has never been shown to suddenly be released on the same day. Very strange!
End of July / start of August is what I was always expecting. Obon is the later date I see it.
Can't wait for DQXI and Splatoon 2 releasing on July 29th lol
Best week of sales ever
Those who want to buy Splatoon will buy it, those who want to buy Dragon Quest will buy it too. It's not likely they'll release the same week but since DQXI doesn't look to come out at Switch the same date with 3DS/PS4 there won't be cannibalizing of sales for each other.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
When DQXI Switch is dated you'll get the direct, just not tomorrow.
It's possible when the Switch version will be dated the 3DS and PS4 will already be dated.
July 28th (not 29th, worldwide release) is also when I was expecting Splatoon 2. Not sure if DQXI date impacts it or not. Possible Splatoon 2 is to be released earlier in the month (like Pikmin was on Wii U, a few years ago).
Anyway, both DQXI and Splatoon 2 in the same month would've been overkill for the Switch, not sure Nintendo would have been able to make make enough units.
I doubt anyone sold his previous systems to keep a Zelda only machine and I doubt anyone owning a Switch does not own at least a 3ds or ps4 too
Sammy Samusu
Member
You are having too much fun over nothing.
DQXI is releasing on Switch, sooner or later.
Asian version is supposed to be ready for release this winter, maybe that's the window for Switch too.
I felt it was worth noting that Monster Strike is now spending a significant amount of time not being at #1, sometimes even going as low as #5 on the top grossing charts, so I think the age where one game just sits at the top of the mobile charts forever, day in and day out, is pretty much over.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Hm interesting.
Btw, what are folks thinking the impact of Dragon Quest 11's release on 7/29 will be for the 3DS & PS4?
I assume it won't move too much hardware for 3DS, since there's already been so many DQ games on it, but it will move some due to it being a mainline title as opposed to a spinoff/remake. Obviously software-wise the majority of sales will be on 3DS. I'd think it'd move some PS4 hardware, for those who want an HD Dragon Quest experience, as it's a popular franchise. Given how well DQ Heroes sold on PS3/PS4, I'd expect DQ11 to at least outsell the PS4 versions of DQHeroes 1 & 2, so maybe it should hit at least 500K on PS4?
Jon Carter
Member
TheLegendaryN
Member
It depends on when Arms releases. If Arms is May, I can see a July release happen for Splatoon 2. But if Arms is a June release (which I think it is), a July release for Splatoon 2 might be too soon after. My guess is August for Splatoon, likely the 25th.
Father_Brain
Banned
What a weird quote. It seems highly improbable that it's a simultaneous release and that it's merely being saved for a Direct or some other event in the next month or so, but Nintendo has done enough weird stuff with Switch PR that I won't completely rule it out.
More likely, it's just a Q4 or later release, of course.
I would propose that it's in a development state where they're not sure when it will be done.
Oh, you did it!
SporeCrawler
Member
If DQ fails to hit 1 million on PS4 (like FFXV) that would be a very bad signal for the PS4 market in Japan imo.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Considering that it's multiplatform with the 3DS, if I'm not mistaken the general consensus here is that DQ11 on PS4 won't hit 1M.
Even in hardware? Hm, I would assume most Dragon Quest fans in Japan have already bought a 3DS especially given the # of 3DS DQ titles and its 22M install base. There aren't any new 3DS features for DQXI to want to upgrade or something right?
There's:
3DS:
DQ7 Remake
DQ8 Remake/Port
DQM1 Remake
DQM2 Remake
DQM Joker 3 - new game
Dragon Quest Heroes Rocket Slime 3 - new game
I guess the highest of these only sold 1.3M or so iirc, so there may be close to 1-2M DQ fans left...
PS4:
Dragon Quest Heroes
Dragon Quest Heroes 2
Dragon Quest Builders
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
No shit Sherlock
thestopsign
Member
It's a really tough call on how well the PS4 version will do to me. I think it has a bottom of 750-800k, but it could do significantly more.
That's the bottom? I would have considered that more the median, I think people generally are underestimating the 3DS far too much in its ability to siphon and dominate sales ratios. Look at how its *still* selling and look at how much software it alone will move. How many people are there out there who (a.) want a non-portable version, (b.) will double dip on both versions, and (c.) aren't perfectly content with the 3DS version which, as it so would be, is more feature rich to begin with and is riding the nostalgia wave far, far harder and more effectively with its feature-full additions.
Also consider how much the Vita siphoned from PS4 sales in DQ titles that were available on both platforms. The handheld side simply has a heavy sway on its ability to kneecap home-strapped experiences when available.
I don't know why the assumption doesn't go both ways. The title has been announced for ages, and the "building the audience" Dragon Quest titles have been on both platforms, though most recently striving to do the impossible, see the invisible
So I don't know why, in this scenario, we'd really expect performance to pivot in any capacity away from the 3DS being the most affected, be that software OR hardware. And, really, for younger audiences/children for whom their parents are going to want to experience a new DQ, they aren't going to go out and buy an expensive PS4 with a next to non-existent family/children catalogue of games, they'll buy them a dirt cheap 2DS that can also play Pokemon.
I mean, let's put this in context here. We're talking about hardware that, despite being ancient and despite its successor being out (though currently experiencing extreme supply problems) is bouncing back and forth between second/third in top selling hardware (because the Switch has locked first).
... of course that (continues to) says a lot about the state of the market where the 3DS is still selling hardware par with newer hardware and one of which still maintains the lion's share of the third party hallmark support.
Isn't the price of the PS4 version particularly high ?
Waiting until late August to release Splatoon 2 in Japan would be a weird--and likely dumb--decision, IMO. I don't see Mario Kart 8DX and ARMS holding up sales that long. Plus, Splatoon 2 has to be done or nearly done, right? If so, they should release it ASAP...
Yeah I think late July is the latest it would be out. Its clearly ready and they can't be sure ARMS will be able to carry momentum.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
To me the big difference between 3DS & PS4 support of DQ titles is that one actually got RPGs (the 3DS) whereas the PS4 titles weren't really RPGs from what I know. Like you said though the 3DS continues to sell quite well even with the Switch out this year, so it's possible DQ11 sells a lot of 3DS hardware.
This was the week of DQ9 for the DS and it still sold hardware: | NDS | 128,363 | 54,362 | 1,838,802 | 26,958,437
The PS4 has not been bereft of or thirsty for RPGs, perhaps there's a lower count on pure TBRPGs but they have still existed, so the idea that specifically it needed to be a TBRPG of DQ vs. the remakes/remasters/ports for the 3DS to be of comparable value in "building the audience" seems hap-hazardous to me. Yes, of course, pure fans of DQ may not have picked up the PS4 on the basis of other RPGs but then I'd also question why they would pick it up now either as these people probably already had a 3DS if they were that devoted/concerned with the brand and RPGness of the game.
The power of brand has been exploited for both consoles to varying degrees, and from there it really will come down to preference of the player.
PS4 has showed it has a low top with big sellers. If FFXV couldn't make it, it won't be easier with DQXI.
Eolz
Member
Honestly, I thought it had no chance of hitting one million back when it was announced for PS4, but since then the PS4 actually did alright. There's a possibility, but I wouldn't say "no problem" either.
Gotdatmoney
Member
Yeah I agree with you tbh. I think it's got a clear advantage over FF15 which crawled to close to a million.
I *hope* the PS4 version of DQXI sells more than a million copies in Japan--because why not?--but I can't say it feels inevitable.
Regardless, I have to imagine the 3DS version will sell many times more copies than the PS4 version and the Switch version. As others have already pointed out, many more people own 3DSes in Japan, 3DS systems are far cheaper than PS4s, and copies of DQXI for 3DS will be quite a bit cheaper than PS4 copies of the game. Add in the nostalgic aspects of the 3DS release, and you have a clear winner.
On a somewhat related note, what are the chances Nintendo and/or Sony will release SE 3DS/PS4 systems that feature DQ branding, imagery, etc.?
Regardless, I have to imagine the 3DS version will sell many times more copies than the PS4 version and the Switch version. As others have already pointed out, many more people own 3DSes in Japan, 3DS systems are far cheaper than PS4s, and copies of DQXI for 3DS will be quite a bit cheaper than PS4 copies of the game. Add in the nostalgic aspects of the 3DS release, and you have a clear winner.
On a somewhat related note, what are the chances Nintendo and/or Sony will release SE 3DS/PS4 systems that feature DQ branding, imagery, etc.?
DarkLordMalik
Member
Dragon Quest XI should easily do 500k but I don't expect it to reach 1 million. I think it should end up with a LTD of around 500-700k. This also depends on the release timing and version of the Switch.
thestopsign
Member
I can agree that a Switch version has an impact on the PS4 version as long as it is officially announced or even dated before July 29th. That would be what I think could limit the game to 750k on PS4. It is a pretty unique situation and hard to predict this far out without knowing more of the surrounding details.
I think it'll do leaps and bounds better than Heroes did, which was also a multiplatform game. 1 million shouldn't be outside the realm of possibility.
Maybe Square Enix is preparing to target double dippers with the Switch version, in which case announcing its release date after the 3DS/PS4 version's release would be fitting.
For that matter have they announced supporting the game with additional DLC (like FFXV) and/or does it have late game multiplayer like DQIX?
AdventureRacing
Member
I think the PS4 version can hit 1 million. I think this has the potential to come close to the best selling version of all time. With the switch release I think it will be.