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Sony FY2016 financial results (60 million PS4 shipped LTD)

P

Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
orochi91 said:
I'm more focused on the US market since that's where all three console makers have a shot at winning holiday NPDs this year.
Click to expand...

Considering NPD only tracks US sales (do not think it tracks Canada, but maybe I am wrong), that is not exactly a strong statement though ;).
 
E

Exquisik

Member
  • Financial Services and Gaming saved Sony again this FY.
  • Motion Pictures has an operating loss of 719 million dollars and components (batteries and recording media) has an operating loss of 540 million dollars.
  • Mobile Communications see an increase in operating income despite lowered revenues compared to FY16.
  • Gaming, Mobile Communications, Home Entertainment and Financial Services are the only divisions with an increase in operating income.

FY18 will be very interesting with the new Spider-Man, the transferred of the Components division (possibly being sold off), and the increased production of semiconductors. I can see why analysts are projecting FY18 to be Sony's biggest year since 1998.
 
K

kyser73

Member
They'll hit 100m in FY19 assuming:

FY17: 18m
FY18: 15m
FY19: 10m

That'll round off at 105m, so beating the PS1 & Wii and if it still sells well over 20/21 it might even beat the GB/GBC (118m) to second overall behind the PS2.

The transition to PS5 will be more crucial than 2-3. The huge digital component of many users' libraries must surely lead to BC, and that will be the key thing they absolutely cannot drop the ball over. This is the last 'lock-in' generation and if they mess up BC I can see people leaving their ecosystem in droves.
 
P

Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
Fafalada said:
The way I heard it - Pro was a "free" artifact of the process switch - ie. they had to pay that cost if they wanted to get on smaller node, taking the upgraded APU was just a side benefit.

MS was in the same boat - but they had interests beyond process shrink, obviously.
Click to expand...

Sony also got some features beyond Polaris, Cerny got hungry :D.
 
yurinka

yurinka

Member
Psycho_Mantis said:
I'm curious if 2016 is really going to be the peak.
Click to expand...
They would sell more than their predition in 2017 if the have the $199 price cut this year. But seems it's gonna be 2018 instead. So if it's the case, I predict that FY2018 will be their peak year (with FFVIIR, Shenmue 3, TLOU2, etc).
kyser73 said:
They'll hit 100m in FY19 assuming:

FY17: 18m
FY18: 15m
FY19: 10m

That'll round off at 105m, so beating the PS1 & Wii and if it still sells well over 20/21 it might even beat the GB/GBC (118m) to second overall behind the PS2.
Click to expand...
PS consoles don't decline in sales that fast because they get great software support during way more years compared to the others, even after the release of the next gen (which this time would be around 2020).

This time can be even longer because it's BC friendly for a future PS5 due to its hardware design. Same reason of why unlike with PS3, the $199 price will be possible with PS4, which means they will be able to sell it to the family & casual market + countries with low salaries or huge related taxes. It's having a huge success, which is another clue that leads to think it's going to have a longer than usual support.

And when aligned to launch, PS4 is following PS2 trend instead of PS1 trend. MS is migrating their games business to PC, and Nintendo are merging it with portables so Sony's market share will grow even more, which would result a longer, stronger PS4 support and a PS5 because would be so stupid to leave the console business when they are getting record numbers and this segment is being key for the company.

So considering everything I think it will end closer to 150M+(or even more) than to 100/120M.
 
P

Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
kyser73 said:
They'll hit 100m in FY19 assuming:

FY17: 18m
FY18: 15m
FY19: 10m

That'll round off at 105m, so beating the PS1 & Wii and if it still sells well over 20/21 it might even beat the GB/GBC (118m) to second overall behind the PS2.

The transition to PS5 will be more crucial than 2-3. The huge digital component of many users' libraries must surely lead to BC, and that will be the key thing they absolutely cannot drop the ball over. This is the last 'lock-in' generation and if they mess up BC I can see people leaving their ecosystem in droves.
Click to expand...

I think they will push hard on both BC and the concept of classical console generations with mid term refreshes... a nice compromise between the past and the future of console... perhaps the best compromise possible that ensures consoles' success :).
 
wapplew

wapplew

Member
yurinka said:
They would sell more than their predition in 2017 if the have the $199 price cut this year. But seems it's gonna be 2018 instead. So if it's the case, I predict that FY2018 will be their peak year (with FFVIIR, Shenmue 3, TLOU2, etc).
Click to expand...

How often we have two peak year in a console cycle?
 
D

DieH@rd

Banned
LastMinuteHero said:
dQoyfb4.gif
Click to expand...

Somebody should add single frame textpopups that say "PS4 sold" every time Kaz rocks, drummer hits the drum, trumpeter moves the hand, etc. :D
 
O

OléGunner

Member
kyser73 said:
They'll hit 100m in FY19 assuming:

FY17: 18m
FY18: 15m
FY19: 10m

That'll round off at 105m, so beating the PS1 & Wii and if it still sells well over 20/21 it might even beat the GB/GBC (118m) to second overall behind the PS2.

The transition to PS5 will be more crucial than 2-3. The huge digital component of many users' libraries must surely lead to BC, and that will be the key thing they absolutely cannot drop the ball over. This is the last 'lock-in' generation and if they mess up BC I can see people leaving their ecosystem in droves.
Click to expand...

Agreed and well said.
Sony would be absolute fools to not be working on BC from the conception of the PS5.

The mere aspect that their network services keeps increasing revenue by a large margin is more than enough proof they'll ever need.
 
T

tzare

Member
if PSN is so huge now, this gives me hopes they won't fuck it when ps5 comes and make it compatible with previous purchases. Digital is so big now that a misstep there could really be worse than the ps3 fiasco.
 
A

ArchedThunder

Banned
Impressive. I wonder if PS4 has had it's peak year and we'll see a slow year over year decline or if the peak year will end up being this year. Either way 100 million is pretty much guaranteed.
 
K

kyser73

Member
yurinka said:
They would sell more than their predition in 2017 if the have the $199 price cut this year. But seems it's gonna be 2018 instead. So if it's the case, I predict that FY2018 will be their peak year (with FFVIIR, Shenmue 3, TLOU2, etc).

PS consoles don't decline in sales that fast because they get great software support during way more years compared to the others, even after the release of the next gen (which this time would be around 2020).

This time can be even longer because it's BC friendly for a future PS5 due to its hardware design. Same reason of why unlike with PS3, the $199 price will be possible with PS4, which means they will be able to sell it to the family & casual market + countries with low salaries or huge related taxes. It's having a huge success, which is another clue that leads to think it's going to have a longer than usual support.

And when aligned to launch, PS4 is following PS2 trend instead of PS1 trend. MS is migrating their games business to PC, and Nintendo are merging it with portables so Sony's market share will grow even more, which would result a longer, stronger PS4 support and a PS5 because would be so stupid to leave the console business when they are getting record numbers and this segment is being key for the company.

So considering everything I think it will end closer to 150M+(or even more) than to 100/120M.
Click to expand...

If PS5 is fully BC the 4 won't have a long enough tail to get to 150m. If people can easily migrate their libraries and cross-gen development disappears within 2-3 years as it has this gen outside of a couple of licenced titles like FIFA, there won't be a need to buy a 4.

130m is maybe achievable but I don't think Sony would want another 150m+ unit eating into PS5 sales for 4 or 5 years of the gen.
 
Cyborg

Cyborg

Member
A job well done! Thank you for the amazing years since launch.

Games, Games, Nostalgia and Games! And lets not forget great hardware
 
A

AnthonypUK

Member
kyser73 said:
If PS5 is fully BC the 4 won't have a long enough tail to get to 150m. If people can easily migrate their libraries and cross-gen development disappears within 2-3 years as it has this gen outside of a couple of licenced titles like FIFA, there won't be a need to buy a 4.

130m is maybe achievable but I don't think Sony would want another 150m+ unit eating into PS5 sales for 4 or 5 years of the gen.
Click to expand...

The only chance it has is if it hits $99, if it hits that like PS2 did it won't matter about BC, it'll beable to get a whole new audience. And could sell alongside the PS5 for a year or 2.

I don't think it'll ever hit that price so i expect ps4's tail to just die.
 
MistaPropella

MistaPropella

Member
Interficium said:
An above-average portion (relative to previous generations) of the total consumer spend on games this generation has been from the hardcore segment, that's why you're seeing Sony (and Microsoft with Scorpio) try to create more products that cater to them.

Things look bleak for MS this holiday though... a lot of people on Gaf seem to think it'll be a generation reset where MS will simply start winning because they have the more powerful box that will be "the best place to play the big AAA 3rd party titles"... but all those third party titles have exclusive marketing agreements with Sony. Microsoft literally can't even mention Call of Duty, Battlefront 2, Red Dead, Destiny, etc's names in their marketing. That's not even getting into the likely price drops and bundles Sony will likely deploy simultaneously with Scorpio.
Click to expand...

Is it confirmed, that Sony has a marketing deal with Take Two for RDR 2? I must have missed this info.
 
P

Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
kyser73 said:
If PS5 is fully BC the 4 won't have a long enough tail to get to 150m. If people can easily migrate their libraries and cross-gen development disappears within 2-3 years as it has this gen outside of a couple of licenced titles like FIFA, there won't be a need to buy a 4.

130m is maybe achievable but I don't think Sony would want another 150m+ unit eating into PS5 sales for 4 or 5 years of the gen.
Click to expand...

I do not think BC would hurt PS4's tails if they can manage good games coming out, a good price, and one last cosmetic redesign.
 
yurinka

yurinka

Member
kyser73 said:
If PS5 is fully BC the 4 won't have a long enough tail to get to 150m. If people can easily migrate their libraries and cross-gen development disappears within 2-3 years as it has this gen outside of a couple of licenced titles like FIFA, there won't be a need to buy a 4.

130m is maybe achievable but I don't think Sony would want another 150m+ unit eating into PS5 sales for 4 or 5 years of the gen.
Click to expand...
PS consoles -all of them started as BC- traditionally sold very well after the release of the next ones, even outselling which were back then "next gen" consoles. Think that in 2020 the PS4 may be sold at $199 or even less.

And being BC with similar hardware arquitecture, most devs will keep suporting PS4 with crossgen games (many of them as service) due to its giant userbase, so players will have less exclusive games in the next gen as reason to pay for a more expensive machine. It will be highly possible that you'll be able to use your same CoD or FIFA account (incuding DLC) for free from PS4 to PS5, and to have multiplayer battles against players of the other gen.

In order to boost PS5 sales Sony will make sure it will have a good amount of exclusive 1st party and 3rd party next gen games that won't be compatible with PS4. As always the hardcore crew will migrate fast and the most casual will migrate later. I also expect that PSNow and Remote Play will evolve to a platform where you'll be able to play PS1, PS2, PS3, PS4 and PS5 games in any device with a screen, internet connection and USB/DS4 or DS5 support.

So yes, I think it will be closer to 150M (or more) than to 130M.
 
E

eyeball_kid

Member
ArchedThunder said:
Impressive. I wonder if PS4 has had it's peak year and we'll see a slow year over year decline or if the peak year will end up being this year. Either way 100 million is pretty much guaranteed.
Click to expand...

With the amount of huge PS4 titles out this year, I think Sony is going to have strong holiday sales. I think next year will depend mostly on the software lineup and a potential price drop.
 
B

black070

Member
Sony has been killing it, looking forward to what they have in store for E3 - I feel like a lot of people are sleeping on their conference.
 
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