Support NeoGAF

[Barry Burton]

I'll stick with my ~40 million prediction, which I felt was a fairly reasonable and safe guess back in January. But I didn't think it'd get off to quite this hot of a start, either.

The "Wii U or worse" predictions were always laughable. It really displayed a lack of understanding of why that console was a failure and why the Switch wouldn't just be a repeat of that.

 

[Gator86]

I'll stick with my ~40 million prediction, which I felt was a fairly reasonable and safe guess back in January. But I didn't think it'd get off to quite this hot of a start, either.

The "Wii U or worse" predictions were always laughable. It really displayed a lack of understanding of why that console was a failure and why the Switch wouldn't just be a repeat of that.

The WiiU always seemed like the absolute worst-case scenario. I always used the WiiU as a floor for how bad things could ever possibly be for Nintendo. The idea that it could do worse than the WiiU seems crazy.

 

[Boy Wander]

The Switch is replacing two product lines: the Wii U and all flavours of the 3DS (including the 2DS).

To be a success it would have lifetime sales that exceed those of both product lines combined.

I still don't see that happening.

What a load of bullshit. It could sell 3ds numbers and still be a massive success. Software sales and profit margin on hardware units equal profit, not just raw sales numbers.

 

[boiled goose]

I think it can beat the 3ds.

It has hype in the US that never existed for the 3ds.

The 3ds was carried by software but the hardware itself was not very exciting.

The wiiu hardware was horrible and only sold anything because of games like mk and splatoon.

The hardware itself is desireable. Something that wasn't there for 3ds nor wiiu. It's the most powerful portable with no competition from other manufacturers and it doesn't feel like too much of a compromise for people who play Nintendo at home.

Plus I think people are underestimating Zelda as a buzz generating piece of software. Botw has people and press talking about it that are outside the typical Nintendo enthusiast base. That translates to word of mouth, YouTube videos, etc.

Tp and ss did not enjoy this buzz. Ss was on wiis dying years and thus ignored by mainstream press and gamers. TP was not particularly ground breaking and was overshadowed by the wii and wii sports casual angle.

The appeal of switch might not be as broad as wii and ds, but I think it can beat 3ds.

 

[Interfectum]

The Switch is replacing two product lines: the Wii U and all flavours of the 3DS (including the 2DS).

To be a success it would have lifetime sales that exceed those of both product lines combined.

I still don't see that happening.

That's not true at all.

 

[phanphare]

The Switch is replacing two product lines: the Wii U and all flavours of the 3DS (including the 2DS).

To be a success it would have lifetime sales that exceed those of both product lines combined.

I still don't see that happening.

so this is what the next spin cycle looks like lol

can't wait for the "well the Wii and the DS sold over 250 million units combined. Switch didn't even reach half of that. failure."

 

[muteant]

not a chance in hell.

i expected more from you, SkippyBro

 

[Muchi Muchi Pink]

What a load of bullshit. It could sell 3ds numbers and still be a massive success. Software sales and profit margin on hardware units equal profit, not just raw sales numbers.

PS4 not a success unless it sells PS2 numbers.

so this is what the next spin cycle looks like lol

Called SpinningBirdKick for a reason.

 

[Hilarion]

"Improvement from GameCube/Wii U"

That phrase suggests, like, 25-35 million lifetime, though. A 3DS-like 60-70 million is a different beast (and would almost certainly outsell the XBox1 lifetime).

 

[Uno Venova]

Damn I wish I posted in this thread, I thought this was going to be a success form the first reveal trailer.

Gaf gets it wrong again.

 

[Hades Hotgun]

In regards to the Switch selling as well as the 3DS and the Wii U combined, I would assume that is definitely a legitimate goal for Nintendo. Assuming most people who had a Wii U probably had a 3DS as well, it could be something where Nintendo would be fine with slightly lower numbers, but they'd probably bank on total software sales being larger.

That would probably end up meaning sales in the neighborhood of the PS3 or 360, though maybe a bit lower.

It may not be any kind of absolute measure of failure to fall short, but I think reaching that target would probably be pretty convincing evidence of success.

I don't see that as a particularly unrealistic goal for Nintendo either, though it is definitely something that would depend on the market being there for handhelds. Then again, the 3DS is still trucking along in terms of sales, so that could help to both offset any shortfalls with the Switch and also indicates that the handheld market may still be pretty robust.

 

[Skittzo0413]

so this is what the next spin cycle looks like lol

can't wait for the "well the Wii and the DS sold over 250 million units combined. Switch didn't even reach half of that. failure."

Nah they're still on "well of course it's still sold out, stores are getting 2 units twice a month!"

There's also the "majority of people buying it are probably scalpers"

Next we'll probably have the "well of course it sold more than the Wii U, nobody said it wouldn't"

Then what you said.

 

[Maintenance]

I'm fine with my prediction.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Man, I should have been more confident in this system:

I do, but it's going to take awhile.

I think Switch is the start of a new, very long-term ecosystem for Nintendo.

Kind of sad that I had one of the most optimistic predictions in this thread.

 

[Moon Presence]

I'm pretty confident with my guess, "Improvement from GameCube/Wii U". The Switch will do well but it won't be the last coca-cola in the desert that many seem to preach around here.

 

[perfectchaos007]

I'm pretty confident with my guess, "Improvement from GameCube/Wii U". The Switch will do well but it won't be the last coca-cola in the desert that many seem to preach around here.

Yeah if Sony unveils the PS4 portable the Switch is dead.

 

[Forkball]

So funny reading all the bitching about pricing.

The same people who paid for a PS4 with Knack trying to argue that the cheaper Switch with Zelda was a poor value proposition.

LMAO.

Let's not say things about Knack we can't take back.

 

[VincentMatts]

I find it hilarious that people say "well its because of zelda" as if any HW known to man would sell without good software.

 

[Spinluck]

The Switch is replacing two product lines: the Wii U and all flavours of the 3DS (including the 2DS).

To be a success it would have lifetime sales that exceed those of both product lines combined.

I still don't see that happening.

This is wrong.

 

[perfectchaos007]

This is wrong.

Agreed. For the last 7 years or so, Nintendo's main source of income has been from their portable devices, with the home console market as their secondary source. The Switch is still one source of income, and I guess their secondary source will now come from mobile. The Switch is just one of Nintendo's consoles and its success should be judged as one console.

 

[Shaanyboi]

Do you think Mario Kart is a game that has as much chances to build momemtum as Zelda for coming months?

Well we know just about everyone who bought a Switch bought Zelda with it. Hell, people were buying Zelda even without a Switch.

I'd imagine a good chunk of people who bought a Switch for Zelda are also going to buy Mario Kart 8. But I don't see a ton of people wanted a Switch skipping Zelda, but then saying "Oooh, this Mario Kart may be 2 years old and I already have a system to play it on, but that's what I'm gonna get this system for..." I mean there are caveats in there, but if they cared that much about Mario Kart, they could've bought a WiiU years ago.

I dunno if Arms is gonna be that game either, that seems like a bigger gamble than Splatoon originally was, and I don't know that the reception has been nearly as strong. But Splatoon hit big, and I'd imagine there are plenty of people that are counting the days until the sequel.

Mario Kart is a massive hit to drive systems, I just don't know that an enhanced port is gonna be quite the same deal. MK9 sure as hell will.

 

[zenspider]

Yeah if Sony unveils the PS4 portable the Switch is dead.

Hahaha. When can I preorder?

 

[Brokun]

I'm one of the 4% who said it would be on par with Wii's success. While it's off to good start, I didn't realize this

PlayStation 2 Sony 2000 >155 million
Nintendo DS Nintendo 2004 154.02 million
Game Boy/Game Boy Color Nintendo 1989/1998 118.69 million
PlayStation Sony 1994 102.49 million
Wii Nintendo 2006 101.63 million

What have I done?

 

[Cheerilee]

What a load of bullshit. It could sell 3ds numbers and still be a massive success. Software sales and profit margin on hardware units equal profit, not just raw sales numbers.

It's obviously more complicated than just hardware numbers, but I think it's a convenient, simple measurement. The GameCube was break-even hardware in spite of it's low price, and it's software sales were fantastic, and yet Satoru Iwata called out GameCube's 22 million hardware number as a failure that called for leaving the industry.

And then WiiU essentially Dreamcasted itself with it's 13 million hardware sales, so it's no surprise that Nintendo has essentially abandoned their home console pillar.

At the same time, Nintendo's bread-and-butter handheld pillar dropped from a record high 150 million with the DS to a record low 60 million for the 3DS. The handheld pillar is not "a failure" but it is in trouble, and that trajectory is very bad.

Nintendo has seemingly grafted the remains of their useless home console pillar onto their handheld pillar for support. Switch is a typically-underpowered Nintendo console with a gimmick, and that gimmick is that it's a handheld. Switch is a high-powered Nintendo handheld, now with the full support of Nintendo's undivided attention. Switch could be more than the sum of it's parts, or it could be less than the sum of it's parts. So it's reasonable to judge the success of this grafting by comparing it to 3DS + WiiU. If it shows improvement, that's good. It means Nintendo's plan to turn things around was a good idea and it's working. If Switch sells less than Nintendo's worst-selling handheld + Nintendo's worst-selling home console combined (or heaven forbid, sets a new low-water mark for Nintendo handhelds), then that's obviously bad. It's not "leave the industry" bad, but I don't think that level of failure should seriously have been considered.

 

[ViolentP]

I think the Switch has potential to be fairly big. Not Wii big but successful by any standards. But right now, I think it's on track to be forgotten.

 

[Skittzo0413]

I think the Switch has potential to be fairly big. Not Wii big but successful by any standards. But right now, I think it's on track to be forgotten.

Huh? How is it on track to be forgotten right now? It's breaking all sorts of sales records and is still virtually sold out worldwide nearly 2 months in.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Hahaha. When can I preorder?

The day after Sony's E3 briefing probably

 

[TS-08]

I think the Switch has potential to be fairly big. Not Wii big but successful by any standards. But right now, I think it's on track to be forgotten.

Even if you still aren't ready to buy in on the Switch being a success, by what measure is it on track to be "forgotten?"

 

[Weltall Zero]

I didn't vote or (I think) post in this thread, but I will happily admit I was completely wrong about it. I didn't feel confident on its chances after the 300€ price reveal, but it's been proven to be a complete non-issue. Really happy for Nintendo and I will definitely get one down the line.

 

[ViolentP]

Huh? How is it on track to be forgotten right now? It's breaking all sorts of sales records and is still virtually sold out worldwide nearly 2 months in.

Even if you still aren't ready to buy in on the Switch being a success, by what measure is it on track to be "forgotten?"

Wii was huge but the Wii U and 3DS left a lot to be desired. People are hungry for a strong Nintendo again. So Switch releases with one strong title and one other strong title later this year. The rest is filler. I respect that people are loving their Switch and I think Zelda is great, but as an impartial consumer, my Switch is already starting to collect dust.

These 2 months worth of sales can be explained without having to bring up the content available, but that content is what will ultimately ensure its success.

This is my personal opinion and honestly, I hope I'm wrong.

 

[TS-08]

Wii was huge but the Wii U and 3DS left a lot to be desired. People are hungry for a strong Nintendo again. So Switch releases with one strong title and one other strong title later this year. The rest is filler. I respect that people are loving their Switch and I think Zelda is great, but as an impartial consumer, my Switch is already starting to collect dust.

These 2 months worth of sales can be explained without having to bring up the content available, but that content is what will ultimately ensure its success.

This is my personal opinion and honestly, I hope I'm wrong.

What is the first strong title you are referring to? I assume the second is Odyssey.

 

[ViolentP]

What is the first strong title you are referring to? I assume the second is Odyssey.

Breath of the Wild. Yeah, Odyssey being the second.

 

[Skittzo0413]

Wii was huge but the Wii U and 3DS left a lot to be desired. People are hungry for a strong Nintendo again. So Switch releases with one strong title and one other strong title later this year. The rest is filler. I respect that people are loving their Switch and I think Zelda is great, but as an impartial consumer, my Switch is already starting to collect dust.

These 2 months worth of sales can be explained without having to bring up the content available, but that content is what will ultimately ensure its success.

This is my personal opinion and honestly, I hope I'm wrong.

You may not see any value in Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, ARMS or Splatoon 2 (or whatever other unannounced stuff is coming) but that has nothing to do with it being "on track to be forgotten." It has shown zero signs of slowing down, and for it to be "on track" there should probably be some evidence for that.

Also, I think you're seriously underestimating Mario Kart and Splatoon 2, the latter with Japan even moreso. Mario Kart is far, far bigger than Zelda could ever be, and it's on this system in less than 2 months after launch. That's pretty huge.

 

[phanphare]

Wii was huge but the Wii U and 3DS left a lot to be desired. People are hungry for a strong Nintendo again. So Switch releases with one strong title and one other strong title later this year. The rest is filler. I respect that people are loving their Switch and I think Zelda is great, but as an impartial consumer, my Switch is already starting to collect dust.

These 2 months worth of sales can be explained without having to bring up the content available, but that content is what will ultimately ensure its success.

This is my personal opinion and honestly, I hope I'm wrong.

wait, what? is this yet another variation of the "nothing between Zelda and Mario" shit that's been going around?

edit:

Breath of the Wild. Yeah, Odyssey being the second.

welp, there's my answer

can't believe this is still trotted out unironically

 

[TS-08]

Breath of the Wild. Yeah, Odyssey being the second.

You referring to Mario Kart as filler immediately invalidates your opinion. It will do more to sell the Switch in the long term than either Zelda or Odyssey.

Edit - and referring to Splatoon 2 as filler is pretty dumb too. I also think you'll eat your words on ARMS, but at least that is more of an open question.

 

[Principate]

Wii was huge but the Wii U and 3DS left a lot to be desired. People are hungry for a strong Nintendo again. So Switch releases with one strong title and one other strong title later this year. The rest is filler. I respect that people are loving their Switch and I think Zelda is great, but as an impartial consumer, my Switch is already starting to collect dust.

These 2 months worth of sales can be explained without having to bring up the content available, but that content is what will ultimately ensure its success.

This is my personal opinion and honestly, I hope I'm wrong.

Haha filled, MK is on track to outsell Zelda.

 

[spekkeh]

I think the Switch has potential to be fairly big. Not Wii big but successful by any standards. But right now, I think it's on track to be forgotten.

LOL.

Some of y'all are just

 

[boiled goose]

Wii was huge but the Wii U and 3DS left a lot to be desired. People are hungry for a strong Nintendo again. So Switch releases with one strong title and one other strong title later this year. The rest is filler. I respect that people are loving their Switch and I think Zelda is great, but as an impartial consumer, my Switch is already starting to collect dust.

These 2 months worth of sales can be explained without having to bring up the content available, but that content is what will ultimately ensure its success.

This is my personal opinion and honestly, I hope I'm wrong.

Mk and splatoon are bigger than mario and Zelda.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Mk and splatoon are bigger than mario and Zelda.

I'd be pretty surprised if Splatoon 2 outsells BotW and Super Mario Odyssey, globally.

 

[ViolentP]

I think some of you are confusing a strong launch with a strong platform. I guess in the end we can all come back to this thread and take our respective credits and beatings.

 

[TS-08]

I think some of you are confusing a strong launch with a strong platform. I guess in the end we can all come back to this thread and take our respective credits and beatings.

You're deflecting. You may end up being "right," but it won't be for any reasons you've posted.

 

[ViolentP]

You're deflecting. You may end up being "right," but it won't be for any reasons you've posted.

This claim based on zero evidence of course. I simply wanted to share my opinion on the matter. I have no intention of explaining my methods of thinking what I do to people that simply don't like to hear that maybe, just maybe, the Switch isn't the juggernaut many people claim it to be after the second month of release. Again, in the end, I hope I'm wrong. But all these ports are raising some major red flags for me. Sorry.

 

[AquaWateria]

This claim based on zero evidence of course. I simply wanted to share my opinion on the matter. I have no intention of explaining my methods of thinking what I do to people that simply don't like to hear that maybe, just maybe, the Switch isn't the juggernaut many people claim it to be after the second month of release. Again, in the end, I hope I'm wrong. But all these ports are raising some major red flags for me. Sorry.

Please don't tell me that you are one of those people that believe Splatoon is a port.

 

[ViolentP]

Please don't tell me that you are one of those people that believe Splatoon is a port.

I don't.

 

[TS-08]

This claim based on zero evidence of course. I simply wanted to share my opinion on the matter. I have no intention of explaining my methods of thinking what I do to people that simply don't like to hear that maybe, just maybe, the Switch isn't the juggernaut many people claim it to be after the second month of release. Again, in the end, I hope I'm wrong. But all these ports are raising some major red flags for me. Sorry.

I don't have any problem with someone thinking the Switch still may not be a "juggernaut" in the sales department, although I do think it will be much more successful than I originally predicted. But no amount of "it's just my opinion!" is going to make your assertion that games like MK8D or Splatoon 2 are "filler" any more reasonable. If your response is just going to be to stick to your guns on that point, that's fine, just don't bother responding to me.

 

[Milly Osworth]

Please dont look at my posts in this thread.

 

[The Hermit]

The Switch is replacing two product lines: the Wii U and all flavours of the 3DS (including the 2DS).

To be a success it would have lifetime sales that exceed those of both product lines combined.

I still don't see that happening.

 

[ViolentP]

I don't have any problem with someone thinking the Switch still may not be a "juggernaut" in the sales department, although I do think it will be much more successful than I originally predicted. But no amount of "it's just my opinion!" is going to make your assertion that games like MK8D or Splatoon 2 are "filler" any more reasonable. If your response is just going to be to stick to your guns on that point, that's fine, just don't bother responding to me.

I do believe MK8 is filler yes. Will it sell? Yes. Mostly because people need something to play and a AAA port is a decent option. Doesn't take from the fact that the Switch's original offerings are lackluster in quantity. And I would offer the advice that if it is you with an issue with another's point of view, perhaps you should be the one to refrain from responding. I'm happy to discuss this as much as you'd like and even willing to adjust my outlook, but not if you're going to act so hot out of the gate. It's really up to you.

 

[Cheerilee]

He's not moving the goalposts. His position is entirely consistent.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=228303395&postcount=2766

Like me, he took issue with the poll options, and suggested WiiU+3DS as a more appropriate success/fail bar.

Unlike me, he was pessimistic on Switch clearing that bar (I had/have no clue how well Switch is going to do, so I declined to take a position), and he's still at that same level of pessimism.

 

[aBarreras]

He's not moving the goalposts. His position is entirely consistent.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=228303395&postcount=2766

Like me, he took issue with the poll options, and suggested WiiU+3DS as a more appropriate success/fail bar.

Unlike me, he was pessimistic on Switch clearing that bar (I had/have no clue how well Switch is going to do, so I declined to take a position), and he's still at that same level of pessimism.

but thats not pessimism thats just delusion, i dont think that even haters of the switch will say that to be a success it should sell wii+3ds combined, i mean, it could, but it doesnt need to sell as much to be considered a "success"