Is it time for someone to make an Irma thread for those that don't come in here?If I was in Florida right now, I'd be making preparations.
Is it time for someone to make an Irma thread for those that don't come in here?
Is it time for someone to make an Irma thread for those that don't come in here?
I think it's a natural thing for people to freak out early when they see something the size of Irma after what's just happened in Houston. It's gonna be a while before folks rationalise it in their heads to how many normally don't make landfall. It doesn't help that forecasters keep repeating the fact that big storms are going to become more common due to climate change either though.It's going to be a crummy week for forecasters trying to satisfy the needs of the American public who are already whipped up in a hurricane panic while simultaneously remaining objective about things. People are upset they got only 2 "official" days notice on Harvey and don't understand why that situation was unique. Not only do they not understand it, they probably wouldn't care about the details even if you explained it. No one wants to listen to a calm explanation of Irma's possible path.
4 more full days of "it's too early to issue any warnings or recommend evacuations" versus "but it's making a straight line for us already." 2005 was too long ago for people to remember how silly they felt after terrifying themselves 24/7 from September-November.
I think it's a natural thing for people to freak out early when they see something the size of Irma after what's just happened in Houston. It's gonna be a while before folks rationalise it in their heads to how many normally don't make landfall. It doesn't help that forecasters keep repeating the fact that big storms are going to become more common due to climate change either though.
It's good to have a sensible head on at this time.
I swear to god, if this thing even looks like it's going to hit south Florida as a CAT 5, I am fucking out of here. I am done. I am never going through that shit again.
Latest Euro model is out. 931mb with the eye just off the coast of South Florida. Later heads north and makes landfall around the SC/NC border.
I'm definitely getting tired of dealing with this unnecessary anxiety every year. It's why I'm mostly looking for out-of-state jobs right now. Lived in Florida my whole life and I'm just tired of this shit by now. My parents are the same way; I'm sure they're going to end up moving shortly after I'm out of here. Ain't got time for this.
We'll probably evacuate if this is a Cat 4 or higher.
Latest GFS now shows Irma slamming straight into Cuba.
Rapidly strengthens once back over the water after hitting Cuba. Pressure looks way too low - again.
JoseWhat's that on the right?
What's that on the right?
wow Florida might be really fucked
Will this be bigger than Andrew? That was rough.
Latest GFS now shows Irma slamming straight into Cuba.
Rapidly strengthens once back over the water after hitting Cuba. Pressure looks way too low - again.
There's a front pushing through the US later in the week that is supposed to pick it up and take it north. The timing of that front is questionable thoughThis thing has seemingly been tracking more west and south with every daily update, so I really hope that turn northwards is right (sorry Florida) and that it doesn't end up in the Gulf. I can only imagine that this already powerful storm will strengthen there.
Isn't 895 really low pressure even for a cat 5?
It would be the second most intense ever recorded for an Atlantic hurricane. I don't buy it.
The current Cuba track might save most of South Florida from the worst of it. Of course in that scenario, it's going through SW Florida instead.
So the pressures featured in the projections, are those super complex extrapolations and we can't actually observe directly without aircraft?
Is there a decent crash course on the different models and methodologies for projections?
What is euro showing?In my experience, believe the Euro over the GFS every time. This post is made for those in Florida trying to prepare.
Intensity is always the hardest thing for the models to forecast. It's often overdone or underdone. The models were way off with the intensity of Harvey for a long time.
You need to have actual observations to know what the pressure really is, cannot rely on models. That's why there is a recon flight inside Irma at the moment.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
Pressure is falling quickly. Dropped 3mb between the first two passes. It's 948mb now. It was estimated at 961mb by the National Hurricane Center just two hours ago.
What is euro showing?
I'm not really in the know of this stuff, but this sounds bad right? I mean lower pressure means that it is getting stronger and stronger?
The current Cuba track might save most of South Florida from the worst of it. Of course in that scenario, it's going through SW Florida instead.
SW FL checking in. I have to be available for work if all hell breaks loose, but I work on an island, so I have no clue how I would get there if we get a direct hit. Either way, I think I'll ask my wife to prepare to evacuate with thw dog and I'll just have to ride it out in our apartment. FML
Falling pressure means a strengthening storm yes. It's on it's way to Cat 4 status, as forecast, but maybe quicker than expected, which could be bad news for the islands. It will probably go through several phases of strengthening and weakening before reaching the US though.
And in terms of intensity the Euro is already wrong. It shows Irma not reaching 949mb for another 4 days. But recon just found that Irma is already 948mb..
Glad I already started making emergency kit preparations... If the storm does hit Cuba then swing north, I'm pretty much screwed being in Tampa.
Well if it does go straight through Cuba, then our hope in FL is that the mountains weaken is down to at least a 2.
A close call for Florida and landfall in the Carolinas.
It's too soon to believe any model though. It will change again later today.
And in terms of intensity the Euro is already wrong. It shows Irma not reaching 949mb for another 4 days. But recon just found that Irma is already 948mb.
Falling pressure means a strengthening storm yes. It's on it's way to Cat 4 status, as forecast, but maybe quicker than expected, which could be bad news for the islands. It will probably go through several phases of strengthening and weakening before reaching the US though.
I'm actually moving to Oregon in November but it might be earlier if this shit hits us.