Support NeoGAF

[TarpitCarnivore]

One model I saw has a direct landfall on NJ, my home state.

That model was from 3 days ago. Every model since has it making landfall through souther Florida or South Carolina

NOAA has water temp outside florida around 30 C/86 F, that seems pretty damn warm for down there.

 

[CoolOff]

This is really reminiscent of Andrews track.

 

[Y2Kev]

I was kinda hoping it'd be north east :\

 

[Sulik2]

Jeez a thousand year flood, Matthew and now maybe Irma hitting SC? In three straight years. I guess the my state is just going to be a swamp for a decade.

 

[aspiegamer]

The final few days before possible US landfall are going to be a forecasting wreck. The current models seem to stop the westward motion largely based on how strong Jose might become and partially bust up the Bermuda High. That's a gigantic unknown at this point for a thing that doesn't exist yet! The idea of Jose existing at all looks like is what's moved the Euro and GFS progressively left.

I was kinda hoping it'd be north east :\

The computers are basing this on a tropical storm that doesn't exist. I wouldn't put anything 100% off the table yet.

 

[Smidget]

Looks like Florida landfall for sure with most of the models. Now to see where. Hate for it to loop around the state and build up and have another Charley. That one beat up Orlando the most if I remember correctly.

 

[Relix]

Fucking Irma keeps getting closer to PR. Argh

 

[Crabernacle]

Northeast Florida checking in. I've been following things the last few days, but with the latest update it looks like it's time to start stocking up on the essentials.

 

[witness]

Fucking had a feeling in my gut the entire time that this thing would come right for us in florida 😟 If its a Cat 4 I'm packing up the family and we are getting out of Orlando and escaping to my dads house in New Orleans. Escaping to the place below sea level, jesus.

 

[sazzy]

I like how easy it is to spot Irma on this map:

 

[maquiladora]

Pressure continues to fall.

 

[MrJames]

942.9mb

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/904696903627104257

The last UKMet ensembles are way south.

 

[witness]

942.9mb

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/904696903627104257

The last UKMet ensembles are way south.

That is crazy south now, why does it keep getting pushed farther? Could it get pushed into the Gulf?

 

[MrJames]

The Gulf is a possibility.

The HWRF takes it across Cuba and enters the Caribbean on the last frame on a due west heading.

[/IMG]

 

[Valkyr Junkie]

Are Hispaniola and Cuba not mountaineous enough to noticeably weaken storms?

 

[maquiladora]

Are Hispaniola and Cuba not mountaineous enough to noticeably weaken storms?

Absolutely. The core can be torn apart if it passes over a mountainous region.

 

[JC Lately]

The Gulf is a possibility.

The HWRF takes it across Cuba and enters the Caribbean on the last frame on a due west heading.

[/IMG]

Fuck.

 

[muteki]

Went out to pick up supplies in NC just in case. My last bad one I experienced was Hugo, so it has been a while.

 

[Panthalassic]

Hoping Cuba takes a chunk out of it (but at what cost?). Started tree trimming yesterday here in Nassau.

 

[maquiladora]

Updated track, warnings and Irma is now 944mb.

 

[TarpitCarnivore]

Is it because I'm following this closely that it feels slow, or is it a slower moving storm?

 

[Barzul]

Updated track, warnings and Irma is now 944mb.

Does that mean it's weaker?

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

It's heading towards the gulf?

 

[MrJames]

Is it because I'm following this closely that it feels slow, or is it a slower moving storm?

14mph is a decent speed for a hurricane.

 

[maquiladora]

Does that mean it's weaker?

Dropping pressure means it's getting more intense.

 

[the_korben]

Thankfully, Cuba has a pretty good record of getting their people to safety in such disasters. Just hoping that they can do it again. I'm more worried about Haiti and the other islands though

 

[TarpitCarnivore]

14mph is a decent speed for a hurricane.

I'll chalk it up to following it closely then.

 

[jmdajr]

Well. Glad my hurricane supplies are still at full stock......

:/

 

[Miggytronz]

Texted my family in Puerto Rico. Hope they prepare and stay in good health.

 

[MechDX]

Updated track, warnings and Irma is now 944mb.

Saw this on my twitter timeline this morning. My reaction as a Houstonian:

 

[MrJames]

From earlier this morning:

000
NOUS42 KWNO 040328
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
0324Z MON SEP 04 2017

The 00Z GFS is running on time. In addition to the normal
complement of 00Z raobs...10 dropsonde observations were
available courtesy of NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the
vicinity of Irma.

Special 6-hourly soundings are requested from the following sites
starting at 18Z Monday: BIS, UNR, LBF, DDC, AMA, ABR, OAX, TOP,
OUN, INL, MPX, SGF, LZK, DVN, ILX, GRB, APX, DTX, ILN, OHX, and
SJU.

Handel/SDM/NCO/NCEP

And now in the 11AM discussion:

Six hourly upper-air soundings will begin at 1800 UTC today over the
central United States to better sample the upstream mid-latitude
trough. In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft will begin sampling the
environment around Irma this afternoon and evening, and these data
will be included in tonight's 0000 UTC model runs.

Let's see what the models do tomorrow.

 

[MechDX]

Updated track, warnings and Irma is now 944mb.

This scared me at first but watch the track where that pic ends:

https://twitter.com/IONTB/status/904704529798705152

 

[PabloBolivar]

Saw this on my twitter timeline this morning. My reaction as a Houstonian

If it's headed your way, would they evacuate Houston this time?

 

[TarpitCarnivore]

This scared me at first but watch the track where that pic ends:

https://twitter.com/IONTB/status/904704529798705152

You should watch the latest YouTube release from Tropical Tidbits. It explains a lot about why the storm could still run north.

 

[BattleMonkey]

Is it because I'm following this closely that it feels slow, or is it a slower moving storm?

Almost always seems like track times get pushed back on all these storms every year.

 

[Griss]

On the bright side, now it looks like it may miss us to the south when 48 hours ago it was due to miss us north and 24 hours ago we were dead in its path.

On the negative side... if it doesn't shift further south we'll face the right side (north side) of the hurricane which is the strongest part.

FUCK the guys at my office just put up the hurricane shutters outside my window while I was typing the above and the whole place is now like working at night but during the day. If it wasn't real before, it is now.

 

[MechDX]

If it's headed your way, would they evacuate Houston this time?

WIth the current shortage of gas and roads still closed you would kill more than save with an evac. You cant just evacuate 6 million people that fast in a perfect world

 

[TarpitCarnivore]

WIth the current shortage of gas and roads still closed you would kill more than save with an evac. You cant just evacuate 6 million people that fast in a perfect world

Y'all would need to start leaving now in organized waves to make this work. But the reality is that people don't respond calmly to those kinds of organized events.

 

[mordecaii83]

Y'all would need to start leaving now in organized waves to make this work. But the reality is that people don't respond calmly to those kinds of organized events.

As a Florida resident, I'd rather FL get hit with this hurricane than see Houston get hit again.

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

As a Florida resident, I'd rather FL get hit with this hurricane than see Houston get hit again.

Huston getting hit again would be a nightmare.

 

[MrNelson]

As a Florida resident, I'd rather FL get hit with this hurricane than see Houston get hit again.

Depending on when (or if) that hook to the N/NE happens though, we may end up with an even worse situation in Tampa Bay.

 

[mordecaii83]

Depending on when (or if) that hook to the N/NE happens though, we may end up with an even worse situation in Tampa Bay.

Yeah, that's why I've been paying really close attention. Still making myself not freak out yet.

Doesn't help that I'm a new resident and haven't been through a hurricane before...

 

[BattleMonkey]

As a Florida resident, I'd rather FL get hit with this hurricane than see Houston get hit again.

Missing FL doesn't mean it's going for Houston, can hit in a ton of places in the gulf too.

As for FL, the one benefit we have is that our state is more prepared for hurricanes. People don't play around here with prep, many have supplies in stock and even have ton of stuff leftover from last year's prep. Also after Andrew hit, lot changed here, with many power lines being moved underground, traffic lights reinforced and replaced with metal poles, housing and construction guidelines made stricter, more homes with shutters built in and more access to impact windows, accordian shutter systems, etc. Houses are built better now than in the past and alot of utilities were improved for damage impacts

 

[Outdoor Miner]

Bryan Norcross' FB posts are not comforting me here in South Florida. I was supposed to fly out for a wedding this weekend but its up in the air on whether that'll be possible right now.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

less worried about the north east now but this would be a mess if it goes up the gulf

 

[Mully]

Bryan Norcross' FB posts are not comforting me here in South Florida. I was supposed to fly out for a wedding this weekend but its up in the air on whether that'll be possible right now.

If the storm even reaches the US, it won't make any impact until at the earliest Sunday.

 

[maquiladora]

Latest 12Z GFS. Taking a similar track but slightly further north so it's missing Cuba this time, so far.

 

[Vestal]

Depending on when (or if) that hook to the N/NE happens though, we may end up with an even worse situation in Tampa Bay.

Yup Tampa can't take a big rain event.. We have been slammed with heavy rain for over a week and the ground is very saturated. Was driving Friday and with some light to mild rain I was seeing flooding in quiet a few places..

 

[Ferny]

Another one slowly peaking behind it :O

 

[Mindlog]

Texted my family in Puerto Rico. Hope they prepare and stay in good health.

I have a very stubborn old aunt that lives alone. We're all trying to make sure she's ready. Luckily her home is about as safe as any place I can imagine even if I expect a lot of rain to get inside (classic style ventilation.)