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Atlantic Hurricane season 2017 |OT|
- Thread starter perfectchaos007
- Start date
Is it time for someone to make an Irma thread for those that don't come in here?
Still a bit early. I'd say around Tuesday or so we'll have a better idea how the following days should pan out. For now I'd just stock up on a few cases of bottled water and dry/canned food just to get ahead of the rush. Just grab things you'd consume either way so you don't end up wasting time/money if it ends up being a bluff.
No. The models have no where near come to a consensus beyond 3 days as of this moment. It's not the time to freak out, it's the time to watch closely and follow meteorologists.
kingofthedead45
Member
Down in South Florida is currently around 2.69 a gallon. Just putting that down on "paper" lol. Well see were it's at in a few days
aspiegamer
Member
It's going to be a crummy week for forecasters trying to satisfy the needs of the American public who are already whipped up in a hurricane panic while simultaneously remaining objective about things. People are upset they got only 2 "official" days notice on Harvey and don't understand why that situation was unique. Not only do they not understand it, they probably wouldn't care about the details even if you explained it. No one wants to listen to a calm explanation of Irma's possible path.
4 more full days of "it's too early to issue any warnings or recommend evacuations" versus "but it's making a straight line for us already." 2005 was too long ago for people to remember how silly they felt after terrifying themselves 24/7 from September-November.
4 more full days of "it's too early to issue any warnings or recommend evacuations" versus "but it's making a straight line for us already." 2005 was too long ago for people to remember how silly they felt after terrifying themselves 24/7 from September-November.
I think it's a natural thing for people to freak out early when they see something the size of Irma after what's just happened in Houston. It's gonna be a while before folks rationalise it in their heads to how many normally don't make landfall. It doesn't help that forecasters keep repeating the fact that big storms are going to become more common due to climate change either though.
It's good to have a sensible head on at this time.
yeah it's interesting telling my friends with family down in florida that they need to keep an eye on this but it's not for sure going to hit.
they seem to have problems hearing that last bit.
Solidsnakejej
Member
Euro following same path as gfs, several other models showing similar paths. Going to likely come down to how much its torn apart by Cuba's mountains.
maquiladora
Member
Latest Euro model is out. 931mb with the eye just off the coast of South Florida. Later heads north and makes landfall around the SC/NC border.
Common Knowledge
Member
I'm definitely getting tired of dealing with this unnecessary anxiety every year. It's why I'm mostly looking for out-of-state jobs right now. Lived in Florida my whole life and I'm just tired of this shit by now. My parents are the same way; I'm sure they're going to end up moving shortly after I'm out of here. Ain't got time for this.
We'll probably evacuate if this is a Cat 4 or higher.
KenzinFive
Member
Latest Euro model is out. 931mb with the eye just off the coast of South Florida. Later heads north and makes landfall around the SC/NC border.
Oh look, the eye is right next to Miami-Dade County. Swell. I'm definitely filling up my car tomorrow.
I know these models are all over the place when it's this far away, but it still gives me the chills. If it's coming, I'll be riding out the storm in my dad's house which is built like a fort and has a generator. But I worry about coming back to my house to broken plywood, blown-in windows, and water everywhere. Or worse, a tree through the roof.
I was a kid when Andrew hit, and it's the 25 year anniversary. Mother Nature better not be getting us an anniversary "present".
I'm actually moving to Oregon in November but it might be earlier if this shit hits us.
Just happened to wake up. Figured I'd check the latest runs. GFS pretty much fucks me up on this run. Euro scrapes S FL and then heads due north in the NC/SC border. Most ensembles keep it out of Florida but the trend to the south and west earlier in the run is consistent. I'll give it another 24-36 hours before I start considering my options.
HWRF is further south and ends as a landfall in Cuba
UKMet is further south and scrapes Hispaniola then hits Cuba
More Euro and GFS Ensembles now show landfall in Hispaniola and Cuba
HWRF is further south and ends as a landfall in Cuba
UKMet is further south and scrapes Hispaniola then hits Cuba
More Euro and GFS Ensembles now show landfall in Hispaniola and Cuba
maquiladora
Member
Latest forecast track has shifted west. A sharp north turn is expected at the end of this.
And recon is close to finding out how strong Irma currently is.
And recon is close to finding out how strong Irma currently is.
maquiladora
Member
Recon has found a strengthening Irma.
UberTag
Member
Irma's like the anti-Harvey.
Harvey manifested itself and exploded to serious hurricane strength seemingly overnight leaving Texans minimal time to react before they got drenched.
Meanwhile, we're all watching this Irma freight train bulldoze its way across the Atlantic like a shark for two weeks before it finally settles on a place to victimize.
Harvey manifested itself and exploded to serious hurricane strength seemingly overnight leaving Texans minimal time to react before they got drenched.
Meanwhile, we're all watching this Irma freight train bulldoze its way across the Atlantic like a shark for two weeks before it finally settles on a place to victimize.
maquiladora
Member
Latest GFS now shows Irma slamming straight into Cuba.
Rapidly strengthens once back over the water after hitting Cuba. Pressure looks way too low - again.
Rapidly strengthens once back over the water after hitting Cuba. Pressure looks way too low - again.
Master Yoshi
Member
Latest GFS now shows Irma slamming straight into Cuba.
Rapidly strengthens once back over the water after hitting Cuba. Pressure looks way too low - again.
What's that on the right?
perfectchaos007
Member
Jose
maquiladora
Member
That would be the next named storm. Goes harmlessly out to sea on this model.
The 06Z GFS shows something that would be much, much more widespread than Andrew. But I think it's highly suspect. I find it hard to believe it will get that intense, especially if it slams into Cuba.
Latest GFS now shows Irma slamming straight into Cuba.
Rapidly strengthens once back over the water after hitting Cuba. Pressure looks way too low - again.
This thing has seemingly been tracking more west and south with every daily update, so I really hope that turn northwards is right (sorry Florida) and that it doesn't end up in the Gulf. I can only imagine that this already powerful storm will strengthen there.
perfectchaos007
Member
There's a front pushing through the US later in the week that is supposed to pick it up and take it north. The timing of that front is questionable though
maquiladora
Member
It would be the second most intense ever recorded for an Atlantic hurricane. I don't buy it.
So the pressures featured in the projections, are those super complex extrapolations and we can't actually observe directly without aircraft?
Is there a decent crash course on the different models and methodologies for projections?
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
It just depends on the Bermuda high...
The problem with the most recent GFS update is that for the model to be more accurate with the tracks of storms, meteorologists decided to uncouple the Sea Surface Temperatures from the model. According to some model scientists, the reason they uncoupled SSTs from the GFS was because when they tried to couple the SSTs, the GFS had serious issues. Hopefully they'll be able to fix this issue in the next update.
Essentially the insane pressures you're seeing on these model solutions for Irma are completely bunk, but the track up to Day 4 seems to be rather accurate. Having said that, the Euro model and the NHC have had the most accurate forecasts from Day 1 to Day 4 for Irma so far.
Oh BTW the HMON model uses data from the GFS so the sub 900mb pressures shown on that model are also bunk.
Watch the track, follow the short term trends, and follow the 500mb height maps (they are the best indicators of the track of any storm).
Essentially the insane pressures you're seeing on these model solutions for Irma are completely bunk, but the track up to Day 4 seems to be rather accurate. Having said that, the Euro model and the NHC have had the most accurate forecasts from Day 1 to Day 4 for Irma so far.
Oh BTW the HMON model uses data from the GFS so the sub 900mb pressures shown on that model are also bunk.
Watch the track, follow the short term trends, and follow the 500mb height maps (they are the best indicators of the track of any storm).
maquiladora
Member
Intensity is always the hardest thing for the models to forecast. It's often overdone or underdone. The models were way off with the intensity of Harvey for a long time.
You need to have actual observations to know what the pressure really is, cannot rely on models. That's why there is a recon flight inside Irma at the moment.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
Pressure is falling quickly. Dropped 3mb between the first two passes. It's 948mb now. It was estimated at 961mb by the National Hurricane Center just two hours ago.
GregLombardi
Member
In my experience, believe the Euro over the GFS every time. This post is made for those in Florida trying to prepare.
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
What is euro showing?
Frankfurter
Member
Intensity is always the hardest thing for the models to forecast. It's often overdone or underdone. The models were way off with the intensity of Harvey for a long time.
You need to have actual observations to know what the pressure really is, cannot rely on models. That's why there is a recon flight inside Irma at the moment.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
Pressure is falling quickly. Dropped 3mb between the first two passes. It's 948mb now. It was estimated at 961mb by the National Hurricane Center just two hours ago.
I'm not really in the know of this stuff, but this sounds bad right? I mean lower pressure means that it is getting stronger and stronger?
maquiladora
Member
A close call for Florida and landfall in the Carolinas.
It's too soon to believe any model though. It will change again later today.
And in terms of intensity the Euro is already wrong. It shows Irma not reaching 949mb for another 4 days. But recon just found that Irma is already 948mb.
Falling pressure means a strengthening storm yes. It's on it's way to Cat 4 status, as forecast, but maybe quicker than expected, which could be bad news for the islands. It will probably go through several phases of strengthening and weakening before reaching the US though.
Carpe Carnim
Member
SW FL checking in. I have to be available for work if all hell breaks loose, but I work on an island, so I have no clue how I would get there if we get a direct hit. Either way, I think I'll ask my wife to prepare to evacuate with thw dog and I'll just have to ride it out in our apartment. FML
Posts like these make me want to build a GAF directory to do a safety check after things have passed.
Frankfurter
Member
Thanks. Can't even imagine being hit by storms like these. Stay safe, GAF!
mordecaii83
Member
Glad I already started making emergency kit preparations... If the storm does hit Cuba then swing north, I'm pretty much screwed being in Tampa.
Well if it does go straight through Cuba, then our hope in FL is that the mountains weaken is down to at least a 2.
mordecaii83
Member
I know the pressures in the GFS models are way too low, but the model shows it strengthening back up to where it was before hitting Cuba as soon as it hits the Gulf waters. That's what worries me.
Could we be faced with the situation that GFS maybe right with this....God let's hope not.
maquiladora
Member
8:00 AM AST Mon Sep 4
Location: 16.8°N 52.6°W
Moving: WSW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
Location: 16.8°N 52.6°W
Moving: WSW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
esmith08734
Member
One model I saw has a direct landfall on NJ, my home state.
Lord Helmet
Member
Welp.... Tampa, Florida here... tagging this thread. :-|
Many people truly underestimate the power of these storms. I was here in 2004 and 2005 when several storms cut across the state, including Charley, Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma. While most were weaker, roughly Category 1, when they passed Tampa (or grazed it), there was still a good bit of flooding and damage. A tree landed on the neighbor's half of a duplex that I was living in. I haven't seen anything compared to some, but I've seen enough to know that I'm not hanging around for a 4 or 5. Possibly not even a 3.
Many people truly underestimate the power of these storms. I was here in 2004 and 2005 when several storms cut across the state, including Charley, Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma. While most were weaker, roughly Category 1, when they passed Tampa (or grazed it), there was still a good bit of flooding and damage. A tree landed on the neighbor's half of a duplex that I was living in. I haven't seen anything compared to some, but I've seen enough to know that I'm not hanging around for a 4 or 5. Possibly not even a 3.
That is trading aniexity about earthquakes for hurricanes. It seems everyplace has some disaster to worry about.