Vestal
Gold Member
PR homes for the most part are built for this. As in solid cement foundation and construction along with steel shutters. None of this plywood shit.
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Atlantic Hurricane season 2017 |OT|
- Thread starter perfectchaos007
- Start date
Solidsnakejej
Member
This GFS run is not good for Florida, barely any land interaction to weaken it before it turns north into Florida.
**Don't pay attention to the pressure**
**Don't pay attention to the pressure**
maquiladora
Member
Another catastrophic GFS run.
Velcro Fly
Member
Hard not to notice the sub 900 pressure even when you are telling us not to pay attention to it.
ladyluthien
Member
All my family is in Tampa, I have been keeping an eye on this, and I know they have as well. They have their supplies already and if it makes that northerly turn towards them, they will evacuate.
Irma is going to be bad for anyone she comes in contact with. I hope everyone in the islands are preparing as best they can and will be safe.
Irma is going to be bad for anyone she comes in contact with. I hope everyone in the islands are preparing as best they can and will be safe.
maabus1999
Member
Another catastrophic GFS run.
We are 24 hours from the 5-day warning track. If this type of modeling keeps holding, folks in Florida need to start preparing tomorrow. Get returnable supplies at least.
GregLombardi
Member
That would be a horrifying disaster. Wait for Euro runs though.
maabus1999
Member
Euro run at 0Z basically took a similar trend, though more up the coast. Like I said earlier, FL needs to start preparing if the models hold through tomorrow as we'll be in the 5-day forecast which is getting more and more accurate.
Solidsnakejej
Member
The problem with this path is that it would be the best case scenario for it to strengthen up to a category 4 or category 5. So it has the opportunity but could go either way.
Vestal
Gold Member
Yup the major defenses against further strengthening ie carribean mountains and sheer are non existant on this path. It's worst case scenario here IMO..
maabus1999
Member
GFS is uncoupled from the ocean so the pressure gets wonky. Add 30-40 mb to be the most likely range.
Still would be catastrophic though....
Not even just the rain. A shot right up the bay would put a good chunk of downtown Tampa underwater and would turn Pinellas county into two islands just from the storm surge alone.
maquiladora
Member
whiteninja
Member
local news (Florida) got all models showing this thing shooting right up through the state.
When it comes to any major storm, hurricane, nor'easter, or blizzard, the best way to track it is by looking at the 500mb maps.
The 500mb maps show the upper levels of the atmosphere where most storms are steered by the jet stream, and the energy within it. So if you're looking at a 500mb map, you need to be looking for what could steer the storm in the future. There are two types of energy within any 500mb level, high pressure and low pressure.
High pressure pushes and low pressure pulls. On a map, high pressure is generally depicted as a blank area, while low pressure is displayed as red and yellow streaks.
Now that we know that, let's look at the 12z run of the GFS at 500 millibars:
At 132 hours Irma is just below Florida, our high pressure is over the Atlantic near Bermuda, and we have low pressure moving east pretty quickly over the Northeast. What you'll also notice is that there is small bit of low pressure just north of Georgia and east of South Carolina.
That small bit of energy will likely pull Irma back east towards the Atlantic after the hurricane passes over Southern Florida.
And now that the model run has somewhat concluded that in fact happens at 168 hours.
It's only one model run but I thought I'd show you guys how these things are actually steered and what really matters when you're looking at the models. It's not the surface level pressure or the water. It's the steering currents of the atmosphere at the 500mb levels. None of these solutions are final, especially when they're beyond 3-4 days out, but when you notice a certain pattern being shown by a number of independent models at the 500mb level, you can have a better idea about where a storm is going.
The 500mb maps show the upper levels of the atmosphere where most storms are steered by the jet stream, and the energy within it. So if you're looking at a 500mb map, you need to be looking for what could steer the storm in the future. There are two types of energy within any 500mb level, high pressure and low pressure.
High pressure pushes and low pressure pulls. On a map, high pressure is generally depicted as a blank area, while low pressure is displayed as red and yellow streaks.
Now that we know that, let's look at the 12z run of the GFS at 500 millibars:
At 132 hours Irma is just below Florida, our high pressure is over the Atlantic near Bermuda, and we have low pressure moving east pretty quickly over the Northeast. What you'll also notice is that there is small bit of low pressure just north of Georgia and east of South Carolina.
That small bit of energy will likely pull Irma back east towards the Atlantic after the hurricane passes over Southern Florida.
And now that the model run has somewhat concluded that in fact happens at 168 hours.
It's only one model run but I thought I'd show you guys how these things are actually steered and what really matters when you're looking at the models. It's not the surface level pressure or the water. It's the steering currents of the atmosphere at the 500mb levels. None of these solutions are final, especially when they're beyond 3-4 days out, but when you notice a certain pattern being shown by a number of independent models at the 500mb level, you can have a better idea about where a storm is going.
v_v (native) south Floridian here. West Palm. Time to make sure we're stocked....a few Walmarts near me are already low/out of bottled water. I also work in IT, so we have to make sure our backup servers are in order...i was mentally preparing for this ever since Irma appeared, but I'm still anxious.
Workers putting the blue hurricane shutters up on our office:
In the last two hours I've had three american friends offer to help me to evacuate if I can get a plane ticket out. Awesome that they'd reach out like that but I had to tell them it wasn't our first experience with these storms and people here are still really calm.
Three colleagues are out of the country and each has asked me to help prepare their property so I have absolutely tons of work to do over the next 48 hours...
In the last two hours I've had three american friends offer to help me to evacuate if I can get a plane ticket out. Awesome that they'd reach out like that but I had to tell them it wasn't our first experience with these storms and people here are still really calm.
Three colleagues are out of the country and each has asked me to help prepare their property so I have absolutely tons of work to do over the next 48 hours...
This is easily the worst case scenario for South Florida. Gets a direct hit instead of just riding the coast.
Dirty side, east side, avoids Miami. Thats a big positive
Tyrant Rave
Banned
Yeah I'm in Tamarac and water's already hard to find. We're stocked up, thankfully. Really hoping this one doesn't knock out my power for weeks like Wilma did.
BattleMonkey
Member
People in FL not taking any chances, stores everywhere are in panic mode on labor day, stores running out of water already. So many people have off today, they are using the holiday for storm prep.
fluffydelusions
Member
The eye going over Miami Beach would be catastrophic.
KenzinFive
Member
Aw man, this doesn't look good. If South Florida gets nailed, then the worst thing would be all of the damage and potential loss of life.
The second worst thing would be that Trump would visit us like he did Texas and more than likely make an ass of himself.
The second worst thing would be that Trump would visit us like he did Texas and more than likely make an ass of himself.
Master Yoshi
Member
I'm fucking fucked
Smiles and Cries
Member
So how many days out until we know if this thing ever really hits sub 900 pressures?
GFS is going to be serving a lot of crow
GFS is going to be serving a lot of crow
Prodigal Son
Member
I was just in florida last week. I hope this thing misses somehow :/
Vestal
Gold Member
If it doesn't touch the islands, it will probably get there. nothing else stopping it from doing that.
Best of luck! Make sure you are prepared.
Stay safe! How are your preparations and for the island?
Synless
Member
Good advice and yeah, I've been through a tornado and some amazing thunderstorms. I have a survival pack complete with rations, radios, batteries, etc... water is what I'll be leaving Michigan with though.
Velcro Fly
Member
I have friends that live all over Florida so this thing being potentially category 4 and hitting there and doing the sawblade thing through the rest of the state scares me so much.
ladyluthien
Member
I hope you have your preparations ready, stay safe! This going to be a wild ride for you, I bet.
AnythingBut
Member
Apologies if already posted/known...but this is a very nifty website,runs off GFS data.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre...graphic=-59.44,24.43,1135/loc=-132.863,11.206
https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre...graphic=-59.44,24.43,1135/loc=-132.863,11.206
Captain Tuttle
Member
My sister in law and my niece live in Miami Beach, I'm really worried for them, I'm trying to get her to prepare now.
Gamecocks625
Member
Yikes. Heading right towards SC with this one
PfantzyPantz
Member
Tampa here, all I can do is hope it doesn't hit us hard because there's nothing we can do. Can't easily move my dad around due to wheelchair/dementia and we don't have a working car so unless I were to just abandon my parents I'm relying on luck.
Even if through some magic we ended up in a shelter it's not fun imagining my dad screaming/hitting himself the whole time because he can't watch his movies. (also expect this to happen in home if we get lucky and just lose power)
Even if through some magic we ended up in a shelter it's not fun imagining my dad screaming/hitting himself the whole time because he can't watch his movies. (also expect this to happen in home if we get lucky and just lose power)
If they're in Miami Beach then they'll need to evacuate flat out. You do not want to be there if a hurricane even grazes it.
Vestal
Gold Member
The GFS won't be serving any crow because meteorologists know that the pressure readings are completely bunk. The model doesn't properly incorporate in everything that serves as a limit to the pressure readings. This is widely known.
Unfortunately people keep sharing the ridiculous predictions like it's actually something that could happen.
Miggytronz
Member
https://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistTimPandajis/videos/1658044980893130/
Really really good watch/listen breaking down Irma. He also goes into a bit of detail of why the GFS models are horse shit.
Really really good watch/listen breaking down Irma. He also goes into a bit of detail of why the GFS models are horse shit.
PfantzyPantz
Member
Hillsborough, I didn't know external chargers were a thing so that could be pretty dang useful since his movies are all on a laptop.
Pesmerga00
Member
God damn, me too!
I haven't looked at the plots sense they weren't supposed to make landfall. I'm on the FL Gulf Coast, so I hope we can avoid the worst. My fucking anxiety is not making this easy! To make matters worse, the last downpour we had cased our roof to spring a few leaks. The two estimates we had were both 16-18 grand.
Sorry for the rant. I'm just very nervous.