It's how he gave context to it is what's wrong. Is more than 2M in the US since launch before the holidays not successful? Is meeting or most likely exceeding the 10M Target in its first year not successful? Like his only barometer of success is if it meets the PS4 numbers.
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Nintendo Switch #1 Selling Hardware in September. Nintendo Systems = 2/3 Total sales.
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It's how he gave context to it is what's wrong. Is more than 2M in the US since launch before the holidays not successful? Is meeting or most likely exceeding the 10M Target in its first year not successful? Like his only barometer of success is if it meets the PS4 numbers.
Skullwaker
Member
It's insane to me how pessimistic people were about the Switch. I wasn't posting much on Gaf before it released but to me the success of the Switch seemed like a no-brainer. It's the hybrid system we've been wanting for years and we knew it had the right games lined up based on the January presentation.
I mean, I can understand not expecting it to be a Wii-like hit, but to expect a Wii U-like bomb? I can't comprehend that.
Obliterator
Member
The biggest problem with Colin Tweets is the continued reinforcement he understands the industry a lot less than he thinks he does. I don't care how long he was at IGN, most of gaming media frankly doesn't understand how the business works very much at all.
His entire posts lacks any sort of thought out or researched analysis. He is comparing the PS4 which launched during the prime of the holidays to a system that launched in the Spring with heavy supply constraints.
I honestly don't know if the Switch will outsell the PS4 LT. My early hunch is it won't. But it's been an enormous success and it's best days of selling are ahead of it. Colins entire thought process and analysis is (as it has always been in regards to the market) lacking
To be fair, they left things in the dark in terms of online and stuff, and mix that with the price, paid online, etc...it was fair to be skeptical. Zelda and mario in the first year made it a guarantee bigger hit than the wii u though.
NoMoreTrolls
Banned
Cool to see Nintendo back on top. Picked up Mario Rabbids last month and picking up FE Warriors and Mario Odyssey this month.
NinjaCoachZ
Member
The January event shook a lot of people because of how sloppily-presented and strangely-communicated everything was, plus the fact that it raised a lot of questions with no answers. I was really stoked about how on-point the October reveal was but I have to admit I got pretty worried after that conference wasn't quite in the same league. I'm relieved it was just a slight fumble on the way to the kickoff and how the Switch is blowing up beyond belief. So happy that it's doing well.
Hero of Legend
Member
Yeah, if this is true, then it has to be essentially:
- Announced for PS4/Vita(?) already for Japan
- Or actually out in Japan for those
- But not announced or released for the west yet (or by the time the Switch versions would be?)
Basically something like... Okami HD, Ni No Kuni II, etc. But those are bigger than Neptunia-scale games (maybe not Okami?).
I'm not certain what games fall under these hints. Hell some might not even have been announced for PS4 yet but could be at any time.
BTW, the hell is going on with Fale/Extella Link? It was announced a month or so ago with no platforms. Switch/PS4/PC seem ideal, especially since it looks too good for Vita (they did provide screenshots).
And of course the original got a late Switch port.
Edit: Oh, maybe Witch and the Hundred Knight 2 could be one. But surely that would've been announced by now for Switch. The new Princess game for Switch/PS4/Vita is a shoe-in I'd like to think for the west.
Skullwaker
Member
I totally understand being skeptical. But yeah, BotW and Odyssey alone ensured that it would enjoy more success than the Wii U. Couple that with games like Splatoon 2, ARMS, MK8 Deluxe, Skyrim and Xenoblade 2, plus the general novelty of the system being portable, and I find it funny that people doubted the system so severely.
Jon Carter
Member
Nintendo's success got Colin talking about gaming.
Oh my fucking God. This entire time, Ive been wondering how Colin felt about the Switchs success. Turns out he just denies it. Nope, not successful. Just the sales performance he expected, Im sure.
OrbitalBeard
Member
That thread isn't full of skeptics. Almost the entire community completely wrote it off and wouldn't even entertain the possibility of even mild success. That's not skepticism.
Multiple people were mocking Pachter's prediction that the system would be sold out in NA until September.
Well....that is literally what happened lol
GAF easily out-Pachter'd Pachter this year. We were all so very, very off. Even my optimism was far off the mark.
January Direct is pretty much a given since there are a bunch of 3rd party projects still targeted to release this fiscal year. We will likely see Tales of, Bayo 1+2, some Ubisoft/Level 5/Square Enix love, Indies etc. there.
Nintendo will also have to finalize their online platform plans and communicate with the players what to expect and when. As we heard yesterday they are companies interested in Switch, but can't move forward until Nintendo online framework is established.
If we get a direct this year it will be game specific one for XB2... But even that might not be necessary anymore.
Nintendo will also have to finalize their online platform plans and communicate with the players what to expect and when. As we heard yesterday they are companies interested in Switch, but can't move forward until Nintendo online framework is established.
If we get a direct this year it will be game specific one for XB2... But even that might not be necessary anymore.
Bioshocker
Member
Yes, I remember the sales talk about 3DS initial sales, which were bad. But what I mean is that we usually don't compare handhelds with home consoles in the sense that "look, 3DS is selling like hot cakes, Xbox One is doomed!". They're different systems with pretty different target audiences. I think that goes for Switch and PS4/XB1 too, which is sort of my point here when they're compared just like the Wii U and 360/PS3.
I do think it's really low for the Switch.
Am I doing the math right?
From various PRs and NPD sales for April ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_Switch#Sales ) we know Switch was at 1.48M in the US at the end of April, which led us to 500k in 5 months, to surpass 2M now.
110k per month in the US is a joke. I even doubt the supposed shortages since we have a bit higher numbers in Japan (see MC threads) and probably less everywhere else.
Even if they're holding stocks for the holiday period, they should be able to produce and allow more particularly in the US.
Am I doing the math right?
From various PRs and NPD sales for April ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_Switch#Sales ) we know Switch was at 1.48M in the US at the end of April, which led us to 500k in 5 months, to surpass 2M now.
110k per month in the US is a joke. I even doubt the supposed shortages since we have a bit higher numbers in Japan (see MC threads) and probably less everywhere else.
Even if they're holding stocks for the holiday period, they should be able to produce and allow more particularly in the US.
NoMoreTrolls
Banned
But dude... that first conference was whack
You do know that making consoles isn't as arbitrary as pressing a "Print Console" button. It's not so easy to increase supply, especially considering some components aren't in high supply.
His numbers are wrong. 110k/month should tip you off to this being literally impossible unless the market had collapsed.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Switch was at 1.186 million at the end of April in NA (906k in March + 280k in April). It did take a reasonably long time to hit 2+ million, due to five months of shortages.
Even then, my point stands. Contrary to what people believe with this, amiibo etc., it's not as simple as to just press the "INCREASE SUPPLY" button, which many believe is the case.
jts
...hate me...
I dont know how to be worried about Switch keeping momentum for 2018. Switch has been selling through supply constraints and on an ongoing 1st year library of games. For the 2nd year, Odyssey and others will be there from the get-go, supply can only get better, Nintendo are sitting on announcements for big hitting franchises, and the already growing 3rd party support will have had more time to grow as well. Dont even need to factor in any price drop yet.
1st year sales are gonna pale in comparison to 2nd year, as much as supply will allow.
1st year sales are gonna pale in comparison to 2nd year, as much as supply will allow.
Jon Carter
Member
Im sure he meant, It will do okay in Japan, but outside of that, yeah, its going to sell. Terribly sorry.
ArtHands
Thinks buying more servers can fix a bad patch
I dont think thats what what people think when Nintendo reveal the Switch
peanutbutterlatte
Member
We should also see third parties scrambling to get on board in 2018, as many of them seemed to have a similar scepticism to many GAF members.
All I want is Resident Evil 4 with gyro aiming.
All I want is Resident Evil 4 with gyro aiming.
Andyliini
Member
I was thinking about future Directs and other presentations. For now, March has been the only month this year where there were no Direct or an kind of video presentation. I was waiting for Fire Emblem Warriors or Super Mario Odyssey -specific Direct, but thise are not happening anymore, there is really no reason for Direct in October.
And not that you mention it, there's really no reason for much Directs for the rest of the year, either, unless they want to show more some third party content.
Skiesofwonder
Walruses, camels, bears, rabbits, tigers and badgers.
No problem!
As hilarious as that thread is now, some of the pessimistic predictions had merit.
Looking back, wow the January reveal event really underwhelmed. Third party support was anemic, with even most of Japan ignoring the system. The price was also $50 higher then most expected, and the focus was placed on 1,2 Switch and ARMs which created the image of a casual focus for the console. And then the failure of the WiiU was still lingering in the background, so it's not hard to imagine the Switch struggling out the gate. I remember posting in that thread, saying Switch would land somewhere between the N64 and 3DS. But then BOTW happened, and people getting their actual hands on the console left many finally understanding why the Switch is so awesome. The rest is history.
On a side note, the 2011 NPD threads for the 3DS were a rollercoaster of emotions. The GAF mindset on the 3DS went from being a guaranteed NDS-like success before the March launch to a virtual boy disaster in August when the price-cut was announced. Pretty hilarious stuff in retrospect.
Friend of mine just bought one. He isn't really a single player Gamer and even he couldn't resist. That has to be some barometer for success.
I still want one, but can't justify it yet. If they release a new animal crossing I'll have to testing the wife from buying two switches so we can visit each others towns.
I still want one, but can't justify it yet. If they release a new animal crossing I'll have to testing the wife from buying two switches so we can visit each others towns.
Where did you get 1.48m from, because it's definitely not in the wiki you linked to. (Wiki clearly states 906k in march, 280k in April for NA)
As people have said, it was around 1.1m by end of April, it is now over 2m, how far we don't know, so sold over 900k in 5 months.
I know but even with considering that (the component shortage), Nintendo sounds to awfully produce very few units, or hold too much stock to make sense, giving their past record.
Do we have some recent production numbers?
I hardly imagine they can't even produce 500k units/months, and that's how few it would take to explain 110k sales in the US IMO.
OrbitalBeard
Member
He probably took the combined North and South American March numbers and added the NA numbers from April.
Let's look at what we KNOW for 2018, first party wise
Kirby
Yoshi
Fire Emblem
Then we also have Metroid Prime 4 and Pokémon which could be 2018 (they won't be). We'll then get a plethora of announcements throughout the year too.
Software wise, it may not hit the powerful 1-2 of Zelda & Mario, but it's looking solid already
Wiki says NPD numbers of 280k for April, plus 1.2M for March.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Your March figure includes both North and South America.
Switch sold 906,000 units in North America during its launch month.
Your numbers are wrong, it's not 110k a month.
1.2m "shipments in North and south America"
CharminUltra
Member
Looks like Switch has a big chance to sell over 12 million by the end of 2017:
I think it's probably close to 3 million shipped for NA(was at 1.9 million shipped last quarter), thus I still expect it to pass 5 million in NA this year. It will get to about 4 million shipped in Japan this year and over 800K in France. Among the top three markets that's nearly 10 million, with the RotW possibly getting somewhere in the region of 3-4 million.
2018 shouldn't worry anyone you have the combined effort of all of Nintendo's teams and a lot more Japanese studios jumping on board. I think 20 million in 2018 is definitely possible and 2017 games will continue to sell. Why wouldn't someone buying a Switch in 2018 not consider Super Mario Odyssey, Splatoon 2(still getting updates), BotW, MK8D, Arms, Minecraft, Rocket League, Doom, Skyrim etc those games won't disappear next year and should all get reasonable sales over the course of the Switch's lifetime.
Laughing Banana
Weeping Pickle
Love it when people who lolling other people turned out and exposed to be full of crap.
That 2m number was for the last reported number, ie LTD as of Jun 30. We won't get new numbers until the next earnings release on Oct 30th.
AcademicSaucer
Member
I wonder how much support its going to get from third parties in 2018, we know its going to recieve Octopath Traveler but I dont see that game selling all that much, then you have a Wolfenstein late port , The Ubisoft toys to life game with space ships, The Blazblue crossover and No More Heroes.
If Pokemon and MP4 arent 2018 I dont know what big hit they could have outside an Animal Crossing thats bigger than ever before and whatever Retro is working on.
Smash.
Oh please. Of course we were pessimistic. Nintendo had been on the casual/dumbing down train for almost a decade. Everything was pointing out to them continuing with this downward spiral. At the same time people were speculating whether handheld consoles would ever see a next generation because of the declining sales.
Being pessimistic about Switch was the logical stance.
Mario Party,
Smash
Luigi's Mansion
Tomodochi life
Edit: Donkey Kong
Bayonetta 3
Nintendo may also be positioning a new IP from Retro as one of their big games
metalslimer
Member
I wonder if Game Freak will push to get Pokemon out in 2018. It could be a massive 2nd year with it
And yeah there is also Pikmin and Animal Crossing has to come sometime soon with how long it's been
And yeah there is also Pikmin and Animal Crossing has to come sometime soon with how long it's been
I don't think they will
I currently have my doubts about Metroid coming out next year, but I could see Pokémon happening next year (not guaranteed, but its possible).
biglittleps
Member
Not surprise as switch is selling well just like their previous handhelds even though its hybrid considering current game industry standards it is doing what it should and we are close to holidays. It has games that gamers expect from nintendo very early as new product with no competition as others are catering home consoles and been there for 4 years. So it will not beat PS4 for sure in the long run, and we even should not compare switch with PS4 as they are different products catering different user base.
It will surely will sell around 50 - 60 million LTD with hardware updates and will get a successor sooner because industry is changing and long gen cycles are not gonna work anymore as people are hungry for new hardware and something new due to mobile industry.
It will surely will sell around 50 - 60 million LTD with hardware updates and will get a successor sooner because industry is changing and long gen cycles are not gonna work anymore as people are hungry for new hardware and something new due to mobile industry.
I liked first conference more than teaser. First conference had Octopath and SMT.