The problem was that everyone overestimated the abilities of multithreading. It’s completely bizarre that AMD, MS, and Sony all got it so wrong.
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Rumour: PS5 Devkits have released (UPDATE 25th April : 7nm chips moving to mass production)
- Thread starter bitbydeath
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The problem was that everyone overestimated the abilities of multithreading. It’s completely bizarre that AMD, MS, and Sony all got it so wrong.
7nm is supposed to be here late 2018
Hence optimising for the bar that console generations roughly set and upscale from there as needed
. Programming for a well known fixed specs device has its benefits with or without exotic HW in the mix... and people this generation were still using much lower level API’s than DX11 or regular OpenGL.
Leocarian
Banned
Hence optimising for the bar that console generations roughly set and upscale from there as needed
Programming for a well known fixed specs device has its benefits with or without exotic HW in the mix... and people this generation were still using much lower level API’s than DX11 or regular OpenGL.
Swizzle what are you looking for in an ideal next-generation system whether it be a PS5 or a Xbox Next W/E.
Hence optimising for the bar that console generations roughly set and upscale from there as needed
Programming for a well known fixed specs device has its benefits with or without exotic HW in the mix... and people this generation were still using much lower level API’s than DX11 or regular OpenGL.
But again on a macro level a frequent refresh would raise that minimum bar higher and more often. That’s what I’m getting at. When the PS5/X2 releases how many PC will be running with GDDR6 VRAM? If the new refreshes become the baseline and can reliably use many of the same APIs the entire industry as a whole benefits. Want the latest graphics? Buy a $500 gpu, don’t have the cash? Buy a cheaper console comparable to a mid spec PC with millions of users and suddenly your entire base has higher specs target which can easily transfer to PC or other consoles without reinventing the wheel.
demigod
Member
Thats your fault for buying it last year instead of the year it came out. There’s a reason why its called “mid” gen refresh.
bitbydeath
Member
This would be great.
dano1
A Sheep
I bought the PS4 pro on day 1. And I’ll buy the PS5 day 1. Just like I bought the PS 1,2,3 and 4. It’s not mandatory anymore. But I want the latest and greatest. PS4 pro is a awesome system!!
Leocarian
Banned
Agreed. I can't stand it when people are like "omg... I just bought something and it's not fair!!!!" lol. PS4 Pro is already almost 2 years old, time doesn't wait for anyone.
LittleAngryDog
Banned
My speculation for the PS5 will be GPU NAVI 12.6Tflops, CPU ZEN 8Cores 3.6Ghz and something between 16GB to 32GB of GDDR6 memory. Do you think these specs are good enough to run graphics better than the current generation? Or is this a short generational leap? Since those same specs are not able to work miracles on a PC? I know that consoles works diferent than PCs... But... Anyway.
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Leocarian
Banned
Why 12.6 tflops? Such a particular number and not 12.4? Or 12.8? Just curios
LittleAngryDog
Banned
Because I'm starting from the premise that the PS5 would be 3x more powerful than the PS4 PRO. PS4 PRO = 4.2Tflops. Then 3x 4.2 = 12.6. This would be positive from a marketing point of view as it would be a 3x console more powerful than PRO and 2x more powerful than One X.
But I really do not know if it's enough to see a substantial graphic jump. This is just enough to run the current games at 4k 60fps. So for the PS5 games to have true next gen graphics it will have to be limited to 30fps.But I still do not know if the jump will be so significant. I'm not sure if what I speculated in an earlier post would make sense. The sense that games could be optimized first in the CPU giving GPU slack. So that slack could be converted into performance and should be used for more realistic graphics. https://www.neogaf.com/threads/rumo...rumoured-specs.1461358/page-23#post-253228461
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Leocarian
Banned
Right. Makes sense, but to be honest I do not think the GPU/Tflops was really ever an issue in this generation on either platforms. The biggest culprit in holding back games, resolution and fps was the Jaguar CPU, it's gonna be all about the CPU this gen m, that thing has got to be very good in order to get a good leap. The Tflops will follow. And 12 or so tflops is pretty realistic of you ask me, but I think it will be between 11 to 13, with 12 being the sweet spot.
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LittleAngryDog
Banned
But do you believe that the PS5 could have a graphic jump similar to what existed between PS3 and PS4 that was already inferior to PS2 for PS3? Or will we see a jump even worse than the PS3 for PS4? Of course this time we will have a breakthrough in physics and AI because of the CPU. But in visual matters is my great doubt/question !!!!
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llien
Member
There, perhaps, is a reason why Mark Cerny has 8TF in mind?
In short, I disagree...
Blizzard has optimized Overwatch to 6 cores. A number of other developers was forced to embrace multi-threading instead of relaying on a couple of strong performing cores.
In short, I disagree...
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LittleAngryDog
Banned
What the hell?
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MilkyJoe
Member
LittleAngryDog
Banned
I posted a comment for the video. If you want to participate it would be a pleasure.
daibaron
Banned
PS pro came out oun 2016, if the ps5 comes out on late 2019 making it is 3 years difference. Sony could release the ps5 in early 2020 and say it was 7 years after ps4, but it would only be a few more months than end of 2019.
Xbonex is pratically a new generation and people were thirsty for it.
Also the consoleprice sweetspot needs to be 500. It is better to spend 100 or 150 bucks more just once at the beginning, than to be obliged to get 400 pros 3 years later because ps4 vanilla was under speced. If the ps4 is a powerhouse at the beginning it can last 7 years, but and under speced ps4 6 years is enough.
Xbonex is pratically a new generation and people were thirsty for it.
Also the consoleprice sweetspot needs to be 500. It is better to spend 100 or 150 bucks more just once at the beginning, than to be obliged to get 400 pros 3 years later because ps4 vanilla was under speced. If the ps4 is a powerhouse at the beginning it can last 7 years, but and under speced ps4 6 years is enough.
AnimalFather
Banned
ps3 purchase must have sucked.
Armorian
Banned
How Xbox One X is a new gen? Right now it's just beefed up PS4 Pro, plays the same games (as PS4/X1) just with higher resolution/effects.
Lort
Banned
So if 50 % of ps5 launch games are on xbox one x or ps4 pro your declaring that it isnt a new generation?
Armorian
Banned
If 50% of games are only avaible on PS5/X4/PC (high end) then IT IS a new generation.
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MilkyJoe
Member
MilkyJoe
Member
That's all next gen will be, to be fair.
Armorian
Banned
Not exactly, X1X is "4K" Ready console and next gen won't be that much better in this aspect but few times more powerful CPU's will allow developers to do much more.
Lort
Banned
What about if only 20% are for ps5 only? Or do u require just one game to be not available on ps4 pro or xbx for u to declare its a next gen? ( and specs dont matter) .. seems an odd way to define next generation.
Armorian
Banned
You mean console exclusives? Next gen will be: PS5/X4 and (as always) PC, if half of games released in (for example) 2020 are not available on PS4/X1 then it's easy to assume that new generation is happening.
daibaron
Banned
I said pratically imo, which i know is debatable. If the ps5 has 10-11 tflops, the x1x will be able to run the same new generation of games at least at 1080p. Ps4pro gave a nice little boost to ps4, but the x1x pretty much fucked up the notion of generations that we were used to.
MS would have been smarter if they had just released the x1x with no more than 5 tflops in late 2016 for 400$. They would have the bragging rights of most powerfull console at the same time and at the same price of 400$. Now Ms is hostage of their own big upgrade - too much too late.
Ar¢tos
Member
X4? I suspect MS will give it a very lame name like Xbox One v2 or Xbox One 2020... I never understood why they can't number things like 1,2,3,4, etc.
I don't see 64GB ram happening in 2019 or 2020, i don't see how a console with 10-15tf aiming for 4k would even use more than 16-20gb except for cache (16-20gb available for games, not console total ram).
I don't see 64GB ram happening in 2019 or 2020, i don't see how a console with 10-15tf aiming for 4k would even use more than 16-20gb except for cache (16-20gb available for games, not console total ram).
X1x Cpu can't catch up with nextgen CPUs, so it doesn't matter if it has 6tf or 20tf, it will still be 8th gen.
There, perhaps, is a reason why Mark Cerny has 8TF in mind?
Blizzard has optimized Overwatch to 6 cores. A number of other developers was forced to embrace multi-threading instead of relaying on a couple of strong performing cores.
In short, I disagree...
I’m not sure what there is to disagree on, no amount of cores is a replacement for pure clock speed. Somethings just can’t be multithreaded and will always run slower on a processor with half the clock speed. Dropping the clock and increasing the cores was never going to be an effective means of gaining performance.
And the entire premise of that arch was that any and everything would dramatically benefit from multithreading at the cost of clock which just didn’t happen.
The ideal scenario would be what we’re predicting now, reasonable 3+GHz with as many cores/threads as reasonable possible for the price.
In the end consoles will be nothing more than computer systems consumers are able to purchase “at cost” or below in exchange for being locked into a manufacturers box and ecosystem.
MilkyJoe
Member
Yeah I suppose.
MilkyJoe
Member
I heard 360 was names so because they didnt want to go up against Playstation 3 with Xbox 2, as in name it looks inferior
THE:MILKMAN
Member
Then how do we explain Xbox One vs PS4? Even worse! (or all this is a myth).
MilkyJoe
Member
Because it was originally planned as an all in ONE media box with a console tacked on the side, until it became apparent that no one wanted a media box, they wanted a console, as every Smart TV already is a media box.
llien
Member
I have never heard that "everything" would dramatically benefit from multithreading.
There is a number of games, even those from back 2015 that scale beyond 6 (!) cores, the Witcher (DX11!!!):
There are engines, e.g. CD Projekt RED’s REDengine 3, that are optimized for for multi-core, beyond 3-4 threads.
There is a lot to be calculated in a typical game and a lot of that can be done in parallel.
It isn't magic and it won't happen automatically, but with major gaming consoles being 8 core and even Intel going mainstream with 6/8 core CPUs, the time is now.
Nikana
Go Go Neo Rangers!
This is true. Microsoft also had Xbox 3 on the table for that very reason.
Leocarian
Banned
The beginning of PS4 wasn't a big jump I agree. The only game that looked kind of insane at launch was Killzone Shadow fall. However, the jump from God of War 2 to God of War 3 was good. BUT, the jump from God of War 3 to PS4 God of a war is much more insane than from God of War 2 to God of War 3. I'd say we're gonna see the same jump at the start of PS5 as we did from PS3 to PS4 and then much bigger later in the cycle. Don't forget Order 1886 and also Death Stranding are quiet obvious huge generational leaps.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
I see what you are saying, but you have to realize that it's also taking 3,4, and 5 years to make a huge AAA game these days. You can't have generations changing twice during one game's development like you are wanting.
Xbox One X is NOT a new generation. There hasn't been one game in the history of Xbox that was made exclusively for the Xbox One X.
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Leocarian
Banned
Xbox One X is far from a generational leap.
No, the 500$ would not be good for majority of consumers at all. 300 to 400 is the sweet spot for general/casual consumers. Sony has proved this with PS4.
LittleAngryDog
Banned
The only difference will be in the way developers will program the games. I believe they will be more CPU based like I said. But the end result will be a graphic jump similar to what we saw from PS3 to PS4 (As you said, from the beginning to the run of the generation). The difference between the jump from PS3 to PS4 that will be from PS4 to PS5 is that this time we will run 4x more pixels on the basic PS5 console and we will have advances in physics, animation and AI that the PS4 did not provide compared to the PS3. In some cases it was even lower than expected. Well ... The generational leap will be incredible indeed. Let's wait patiently! I think it will be satisfactory and that SONY will not release a console unable to run 4K 60fps. Something between 12 or 15Tflops will be the most likely.
luca_29_bg
Member
xbox one x is not a new generation, it's only a mid gen refresh, it share the same games running on the base console in higher quality/resolution.
I have never heard that "everything" would dramatically benefit from multithreading.
There is a number of games, even those from back 2015 that scale beyond 6 (!) cores, the Witcher (DX11!!!):
There are engines, e.g. CD Projekt RED’s REDengine 3, that are optimized for for multi-core, beyond 3-4 threads.
There is a lot to be calculated in a typical game and a lot of that can be done in parallel.
It isn't magic and it won't happen automatically, but with major gaming consoles being 8 core and even Intel going mainstream with 6/8 core CPUs, the time is now.
I'm not arguing against multithreading, I'm arguing multithreading isn't a replacement for clockspeed.
Example the Xbox 360 had a 3-core 3.2Ghz cpu. I'm a firm believing in multi-threading but not at the extreme detriment of clock speed like we have with the current generation. And when it comes to a price conscious system like a console you should invest in the highest single core performance with the most number of cores and threads. The current crop were not balanced. They took the approach of more cores at significantly lower frequencies and it didn't pay off long term. Having a decent clockspeed and decent number of threads should always be a balanced approach. It doesn't have to be either/or.
WinterIsComing
Member
Dammit it's too soon. I just bought a PS3 10 years ago, and now all of a sudden here's the PS5? Screw this!
But this is exactly why I'm disagreeing on this. Having a very consistent target in x86 arc should signficantly speed things up.
Example: Lets say ps5/X2 launch in 2019/2020. This becomes developers new and future baseline with the understanding that these systems are compatible with tools and APIs that can be applied to the PC versions as well.
They can consolidate their coding team and their target window becomes much MUCH smaller. Instead of having to release the same game targeting hardware 5-8 years old while also supporting the latest hardware and tools they have a smaller and reliable 3 year windows which they can increment. The end result would be faster game development using more recent tools because they are coding for such a wide install base. Think about it, Crysis 3 released in 2013 with these system requirements:
CPU:
Intel Core2 Duo 2.4 Ghz (E6600) / AMD Athlon64 X2 2.7 Ghz (5200+)
RAM:
2GB Memory (3GB on Vista)
GPU:
DirectX 11 graphics card with 1Gb Video RAM
Nvidia GTS 450 / AMD Radeon HD5770
Meanwhile developers also have to target Xbox 360 and PS3, systems where they have 512MB RAM total to share between them. Attempting to make the best PC game and scale down or starting at a low baseline and scaling up is hurting the industry and artificially holding back gaming. So many resources are devoted to supporting such a wide range of architectures and products that it really has little benefit to overall gaming. The idea of "coding to the metal" for exotic hardware is the same mindset which holds the industry back.
Codes 208
Member
When the X4 releases, itll be a new gen of xbox, why do you believe theyll keep the One's name? That would be like if this gen's xbox was called the XBOX 360 ONE
bitbydeath
Member
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Insane Metal
Member
Ok since everyone is posting theirs... here are my predictions:
- The CPU will absolutely be Zen/Zen+/Zen2 based, no more than 8 cores;
- Aiming for 32GB RAM; but 16 or even 24 isn't out of the question;
- Aiming for an SSHD instead of an HDD or a pure SSD;
- GPU will be based on nextgen AMD Radeon, but custom built for VR purposes;
- Total system performance will be around 10 to 12TFs;
- Digital PS4 games you own will be downloadable and playable on PS5 in higher res/better performance;
- Backwards compatibility with PS4 and PS3;
- Next gen PSVR will be available from the beginning and it will be cheaper;
- PlayGo and OS will be taken to a next level and will be snappy and very functional.
And this is what I k... think will happen.
- The CPU will absolutely be Zen/Zen+/Zen2 based, no more than 8 cores;
- Aiming for 32GB RAM; but 16 or even 24 isn't out of the question;
- Aiming for an SSHD instead of an HDD or a pure SSD;
- GPU will be based on nextgen AMD Radeon, but custom built for VR purposes;
- Total system performance will be around 10 to 12TFs;
- Digital PS4 games you own will be downloadable and playable on PS5 in higher res/better performance;
- Backwards compatibility with PS4 and PS3;
- Next gen PSVR will be available from the beginning and it will be cheaper;
- PlayGo and OS will be taken to a next level and will be snappy and very functional.
And this is what I k... think will happen.
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