bitbydeath
Member
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Sony accidentally disclosed the number of players for [possibly] every PS4 game
- Thread starter bitbydeath
- Start date
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
What if someone isn't connected online?
bitbydeath
Member
Yeah, true.
I guess it's a baseline then of the overall total.
Still interesting though.
rykomatsu
Member
It wouldn't be accurate to the single digits, but if you treat this as a Fermi problem using reasonable estimates, you can get a reasonable number.
Assuming we are talking only about US -
ie. 5% of PS4 owners are not connected to the internet - poverty rate of US is 13.5%, looking at income distributions and what not, it's probably safe to assume the highest income bracket in poverty most likely has broadband, which is about 6-7%. And if you goto FCC, they estimate about 6% of population doesn't have broadband, so a 5% not connected estimation is probably pretty close for PSN.
Socioeconomic status probably has the largest bearing on whether someone is connected or not - people like internet conspiracy theorist don't move the needle much so just that type of estimation alone will probably get you to a reasonably close number for both online and offline population combined. Add to that, the trophy distribution is an aggregate distribution, so one would expect to see similar distributions whether the population is connected or not.
So, basically, if you feel the above estimations are reasonable, total estimated population of game = calculated online population / 95%
Alternatively, you can estimate your own model with reasonable assumptions based on how you frame the problem. Basically an adaptation of the "How many taxi drivers in NY" or "how many golf balls in a school bus" problem.
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MrTroubleMaker
Member
interesting stuff!
FranXico
Member
That's the same on PS4, the total number of players mentoned here is an estimation which was calculated indirectly. Follow the link in the OP for the explanation.
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AeonGaidenRaiden
Member
Thats crazy, how does Fifa 2018 have twice as many players than Fifa 2019? We are talking about 19mil players less.
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haxan7
Volunteered as Tribute
the release date
TLZ
Banned
FIFA 19 still new.
Gediminas
Banned
this is highly inaccurate because many players don't play for trophies, and that program shows Rarest trophy, there are many games which has very hard trophies and those are just for trophy hunters. average gamer maybe reach 50% of trophies, sometimes less, so it is not mean that he does not played the game if some other gamer reach 60% and got trophy and that program show how many got that trophy.
AV
We ain't outta here in ten minutes, we won't need no rocket to fly through space
Did you even look at it? It shows how many people in total earned that trophy. They then just compare the number to the % amount displayed in the PS4 UI to work out how many people played the game total.
ReBurn
Gold Member
Nah, but there's a console warrior somewhere making a list about it. I guarantee it.
GenericUser
Member
CoD WW2 has 24,6 Million players whereas BO4 "only" has 9,2 Million. Even including the christmas newbs, this numbers seems pretty low for BO4.
ethomaz
Banned
I can only provide data for GTS from grantruismo.com and it seems a bit too high maybe due some % rounding in the trophy stats.
Actually there are:
Total profiles: 6867536
Beta profiles (no trophy for these): ~600k
GTS Profiles: ~6267536
So they are about 900k higher than actual players and that I believe is due some rounding in the %.
They are using the 0.4% trophy... so it is not actually 0.4% but 0.44%... that means the total players are 6545454 that is close to actual 6267536... so you can even.
Using the actual number... you need 0.459% to match it.... so probably 0.4% is 0.459% rounded.
Actually there are:
Total profiles: 6867536
Beta profiles (no trophy for these): ~600k
GTS Profiles: ~6267536
So they are about 900k higher than actual players and that I believe is due some rounding in the %.
They are using the 0.4% trophy... so it is not actually 0.4% but 0.44%... that means the total players are 6545454 that is close to actual 6267536... so you can even.
Using the actual number... you need 0.459% to match it.... so probably 0.4% is 0.459% rounded.
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ethomaz
Banned
Wait a year to compared again
1inthechamber_
Banned
Has to be inaccurate af. No way 6 million are playing bf hardline or 19 million on fifa 15.
ethomaz
Banned
I showed how much it can be inaccurate using actual GTS data.
0.4% showed in trophies is actually around 0.46% for GTS... so the range for rounding is pretty high.
If everything up to x.x9 is rounded to minimum then you have big changes in that list.... closer to x.x1 will be more accurate... closer to x.x9 will have big discrepancies (like millions).
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SaucyJack
Member
“Have played” rather than “are playing” if I understand the calculation being made.
MDSLKTR
Member
Ps+ title
Roni
Gold Member
True, hadn't thought of that.
sullydabricks
Neo Member
Plus Christmas hasn’t come yet
kevin_trinh
Member
FIFA 19 got discount 50% after 3 weeks, i think that's why.
Gediminas
Banned
you still can not grasp what i said. think about it few days, then make comments like "did you even look at it"
Strife In a Teacup
Member
Yup:
So, if we figure it's about that across all 3 platforms, to give them the benefit of the doubt, or hell, even round up to 500,000 per platform just to be nice, that's still only 1.5 million copies sold across PS4/PC/Xbox. In reality it's quite possibly lower than that.
In other words, more people played Fallout Shelter on PS4 than people that have bought/played (Redbox'd/etc) Fallout 76 across all platforms.
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AV
We ain't outta here in ten minutes, we won't need no rocket to fly through space
No, you just really don't understand how this is being calculated. If 100,000 people got the rarest trophy in the game and we know that 10% of all players got that trophy, then a million people played it.
The only thing it possibly might not factor in is offline players and anyone who didn't get a single trophy, but we don't know enough about Sony's back-end to factor those people in.
iconmaster
Banned
Almost 52 million players for Grand Theft Auto V? Seems about right.
Almost 4 mil for No Man's Sky!
Or just being depressed by it.
Almost 4 mil for No Man's Sky!
Or just being depressed by it.
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ethomaz
Banned
Actually this site math has a big margin of error (GTS is about 900k lower than the the site shows).
https://www.neogaf.com/threads/sony...ossibly-every-ps4-game.1469717/post-253653882
https://www.neogaf.com/threads/sony...ossibly-every-ps4-game.1469717/post-253653910
GTS is easy to spot that because we actually have official public number of players.
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Heimdall_Xtreme
Jim Ryan Fanclub's #1 Member
FifaStation confirmed:
My question is why the people still buy Fifa each year, its exactly the same thing, not even improve the graphics and the physics, or it does but is few.
I dont like at all football, but i guess is best Pro-Evolution only for Fox-engine.
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AV
We ain't outta here in ten minutes, we won't need no rocket to fly through space
"Many players don't play for trophies. This program shows only the rarest trophy for a game. There are many games which have hard trophies just for trophy hunters."
I agree with all of the above, but it doesn't change anything. If we know that 100,000 players total got a rare trophy, and also that 10% of all players got that trophy, then we know that 100,000 is 10% of all players. Everybody is included in that percentage, not just trophy hunters.
Blam
Member
Why would they be using this against them? Lol Minecraft says 20 million users on here too.
Shin
Banned
But NMS is dead and all that and bla bla bla
Jokes aside it's interesting to see figures, especially healthy ones (for the most part?).
Grinchy
Banned
Yeah, it also doesn't account for used game sales. In those cases, at least 2 accounts can be active on the trophy list of the same purchased game.
BibiMaghoo
Member
It means that since the game launched, 12 million accounts in total have fired up the menu at least once. If the total is 12 million, there was never a number close to that playing the game at the same time. To be a trophy player statistic, I think you only need to have the trophy list installed which doesn't require any time spent playing. Not 100% on that though.
It is good only to know how many accounts have launched the game. That figure will be accurate with the exception of offline only consoles. It doesn't give evidence for sales numbers other than to provide a cap for them, and the figure of sales will always be less than the number of accounts that have launched the game.
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iconmaster
Banned
That's worth noting. My son and I play Red Dead 2, each on his own PSN account. Trophy percentages will likely reflect both of us as distinct players.
I suspect this kind of thing wouldn't greatly inflate the numbers but it'd have some non-zero effect.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
- Heavy Rain sold 3.6 million units. Beyond: Two Souls sold over 4.3 million units?!?! That's crazy. I'm happy for David Cage's team. And Detroit Become Human has sold 2.4 million units in 6 months.
- GTA5 sold 52 million units on the PS4 only? Or is it PS3 and PS4 combined?
- No Man's Sky is at 3.9 million units sold. So closing in on that 4 million mark.
- Resident Evil 7 sold 6 million units!!! That's awesome
- Sad to see The Last Guardian only sell 1.9 million units.
- GTA5 sold 52 million units on the PS4 only? Or is it PS3 and PS4 combined?
- No Man's Sky is at 3.9 million units sold. So closing in on that 4 million mark.
- Resident Evil 7 sold 6 million units!!! That's awesome
- Sad to see The Last Guardian only sell 1.9 million units.