Support NeoGAF

[hariseldon]

By giving contracts for school meals to the lowest bidder; who introduced kids to high sugar, high salt, high fat diets. This was fixed up north thanks to devolution.

A rare legitimate point - I stand corrected.

 

[DeepBreath87]

It's a developing situation. What is known to be right one week can be outdated the next. Doesn't mean that he doesn't know what he is talking about, just that new evidence came up. Most people still haven't realized that the whole mask issue is still the same. Everybody said they don't help against becoming infected, and that is still true to this day. But they do help in reducing the spread from people that are knowingly or unknowingly infected. That's what they are there for, so you don't infect others, not to protect yourself.

Are you saying Dr. Fauci didn’t know that masks for the general public wouldn’t slow the spread? Because what you said about masks is true for literally any respiratory contagion. So what he was saying about masks was always bullshit and it’s hard for me to believe he didn’t know it at the time.

A better explanation is they didn’t want the public gobbling up all the masks when supplies were limited. It’s more likely he was lying about masks when he said that stuff. The point about Fauci is he’s been wrong a lot and I actually think the way he talks is questionable when he speaks vaguely of the risks to certain populations. So I think people give him far too much authority over others with similar qualifications.

 

[DeepBreath87]

Wait, where is that 99.9% recovery rate coming from?

99.9% is probably wrong. The real number is probably somewhere closer to 99.4 based early antibody testing. I don’t know why we aren’t doing massive antibody studies though.

 

[pLow7]

99.9% is probably wrong. The real number is probably somewhere closer to 99.4 based early antibody testing. I don’t know why we aren’t doing massive antibody studies though.

Because as of now, there isn't many reliable Antibody tests around. Since the Antibodies of this, are pretty similar to the Antibodies of other Coronaviruses, it's not easy to detect if you have Antibodies for Covid-19. Meaning tat even if you have developed Antibodies for Coronavirus, it could be, that you developed Antibodies for the yearly "mild" coronaviruses.

 

[The Scrivener]

Surprising, considering his party was a large part of the reason why its a problem.

I see what you did there.

 

[dionysus]

3 weeks into Georgia's reopening and there is no resurgence of cases. I am sure all kinds of people in this thread, in the media, and in the government will eat crow. Surely...

 

[DeepBreath87]

Because as of now, there isn't many reliable Antibody tests around. Since the Antibodies of this, are pretty similar to the Antibodies of other Coronaviruses, it's not easy to detect if you have Antibodies for Covid-19. Meaning tat even if you have developed Antibodies for Coronavirus, it could be, that you developed Antibodies for the yearly "mild" coronaviruses.

Really? Because I have done a decent amount of reading on this and that doesn’t seem like a concern. I don’t think Universities are doing studies that are so nonspecific. The real concerns are about whether the presence of antibodies grant actual protection.

I’m sure there are plenty of nonspecific tests, but there are also COVID-19 specific antibody tests that are fairly accurate. And even if antibodies don’t grant full immunity, the tests will tell us a lot about the true fatality rate of the virus.

 

[hariseldon]

The numbers in London look pretty bloody good. A Cambridge model predicts about a 20% infection rate in London (which would be about in line with New York and other dense cities) so there are a few possibilities here:
- Lockdown/social distancing has got that infection rate down really fucking low
- The infection rate SERIOUSLY slows down at 20% of population infected - if not herd immunity certainly herd slowing (if you think about it that drops the R considerably as 1 in 5 people it tries to reach are unavailable so if it's 1.0 without immunity it becomes 0.8 for instance).

We'll find out which of those it is as people get back to work in London but I'd say there's a decent chance of the latter.

 

[hariseldon]

Could having a cold protect against Covid?

Could having a common cold protect you against Covid-19? The intriguing prospect has been raised by a team from the La Jolla Institute for Immunology in California. They were researching the response of human T cells – which play a vital role in the immune system – in patients who have recovered...

www.spectator.co.uk

Could having a cold protect against Covid?
Could having a common cold protect you against Covid-19? The intriguing prospect has been raised by a team from the La Jolla Institute for Immunology in California. They were researching the response of human T cells – which play a vital role in the immune system – in patients who have recovered from Covid-19. The response they detected, however, also showed up in 40 to 60 per cent of a control group that had not been exposed to Covid-19. In a paper published in the journal Cell they write: 'This may be reflective of some degree of crossreactive, pre-existing immunity to Sars-CoV-2 in some, but not all, individuals'. Sars-CoV-2 is the virus which causes Covid-19.

In other words, if you have a common cold – which, like Covid-19, is caused by coronaviruses – that can lead you to develop an immune response to that particular coronavirus. But that immunity then also protects you, to some extent, to infection by Sars-CoV-2. The team does then add 'Whether this immunity is relevant in influencing clinical outcomes is unknown', but it does raise the possibility that many of us might have some natural degree of protection against Covid-19 – contradicting the presumption of government scientific advisers that 80 per cent of the population would catch the virus if it were allowed to rip through the population without lockdowns of social distancing. In the one real-life accidental experiment into the spread of Covid-19 – the cruise ship the Diamond Princess, where the virus was allowed to spread unchecked for a fortnight – only 17 per cent of the 3,711 passengers and crew contracted the virus.

The La Jolla team notes that crossreactive immunity from other influenza viruses helped protect the population during the outbreak of H1N1 swine flu in 2009 – which was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organisation but turned out to be far milder than many people feared.

The La Jolla study backs German research suggesting that 34 per cent of the population have T cells that recognise Sars-CoV-2, without previously having encountered the new virus. The virologists behind that work were keen to stress that this did not mean a third of us are immune from Covid-19 but it could explain why some people have only very mild symptoms or are asymptomatic.

The main point of the La Jolla research was to help understand the human immune response in order to develop new vaccines.

 

[Chittagong]

The numbers in London look pretty bloody good. A Cambridge model predicts about a 20% infection rate in London (which would be about in line with New York and other dense cities) so there are a few possibilities here:
- Lockdown/social distancing has got that infection rate down really fucking low
- The infection rate SERIOUSLY slows down at 20% of population infected - if not herd immunity certainly herd slowing (if you think about it that drops the R considerably as 1 in 5 people it tries to reach are unavailable so if it's 1.0 without immunity it becomes 0.8 for instance).

We'll find out which of those it is as people get back to work in London but I'd say there's a decent chance of the latter.

I was expecting it to come to this when the lockdown started, because nobody was really in touch with anyone, streets were all but deserted so it would have been hard for anyone to be infected. It came slower than I figured, I had calculated that the dramatic turnaround would be week of 20 April back in March. Took much longer

 

[diffusionx]

Are you saying Dr. Fauci didn’t know that masks for the general public wouldn’t slow the spread? Because what you said about masks is true for literally any respiratory contagion. So what he was saying about masks was always bullshit and it’s hard for me to believe he didn’t know it at the time.

A better explanation is they didn’t want the public gobbling up all the masks when supplies were limited. It’s more likely he was lying about masks when he said that stuff. The point about Fauci is he’s been wrong a lot and I actually think the way he talks is questionable when he speaks vaguely of the risks to certain populations. So I think people give him far too much authority over others with similar qualifications.

That's the problem right - these officials have not been honest with us this entire time, yet I am supposed to unquestionably accept everything they say and do as I am told? If they were wrong/lying about the masks, why wouldn't they be wrong/lie about the quarantine? Do we have any agency whatsoever or are we just to accept we are now living in a dictatorship?

At least until Big Tech and the media scrubs them from the internet, it is easy to pull up articles where they said "wearing masks doesn't help and it doesn't matter anyway." There are tons of shit. It was like 3 months ago. I seriously wonder if I post one of CNN's articles from 3 months ago, will I get banned from Facebook for "spreading misinformation"?

 

[Chittagong]

Latest UK combined figure 256, a very low figure for weekdays. I think this weekend will get us to the 100s for the first time.

 

[hariseldon]

Latest UK combined figure 256, a very low figure for weekdays. I think this weekend will get us to the 100s for the first time.

 

[diffusionx]

99.9% is probably wrong. The real number is probably somewhere closer to 99.4 based early antibody testing. I don’t know why we aren’t doing massive antibody studies though.

The real total number might be around 99.4, the .6% is about the highest I've seen so there are lower ones, but every single analysis says that, in reality, if you're under 70 and healthy, it is more like 99.95%.

 

[cryptoadam]

Healthy at any size you bigot.



Show me a pre-work down model that showed anywhere near the amount of case and deaths we are seeing. Otherwise you cannot claim that lock down is working.

Virtually all "best case scenarios" saw most healthcare systems being overwhelmed. The reality is most places are not even reaching 50% capacity.

For all we know, it's the social distancing that is working, not the lockdowns. I think even Cuomo was mentioning that the data indicates Frontline healthcare workers were getting affected at far lower rates than those that stayed home. I believe there one's one or two studies recently claiming similar.

Also since it is a while ago, I cannot find it, but the date correlation of some data started showing an impact on reducing the cases stemming from social distancing measures, not lockdown.

Spainish study shows essential workers less infecred than those at home

This along with Cuomo saying 66% of infected were also people who stayes home. Add in 50% of EU and Canada 50% and 1/3rd in USA of cases in old age homes.

www.neogaf.com

Spanish study showing that essentially workers were less likely to get infected than people who were in lockdown. Which goes with Cuomo's numbers that 66% of hospitlizations were people who were in lock down. We can also take the old age homes where if you send in an infected into a lock down enviroment it ravage the population and genocides them.

 

[HellforLeather]

3 weeks into Georgia's reopening and there is no resurgence of cases. I am sure all kinds of people in this thread, in the media, and in the government will eat crow. Surely...

Anyone actively wishing for a spike in cases just to win a dumb debate with strangers on the internet is a fucking psychopath.

I have a fear of states reopening too quickly and the possibility of a resurgence of cases but I would gladly eat all the crow in the world to be completely and utterly wrong on every aspect of my position.

This is a problem today that people dig into their positions too much and take it too personally if they end up being wrong or completely lose sight of what the most beneficial outcome is just so they can rub it in the oppositions face.

 

[iconmaster]

A very even-handed article, I thought:

Sweden’s Coronavirus Strategy Will Soon Be the World’s

Herd immunity is the only realistic option—the question is how to get there safely.

www.foreignaffairs.com

 

[DeepBreath87]

The real total number might be around 99.4, the .6% is about the highest I've seen so there are lower ones, but every single analysis says that, in reality, if you're under 70 and healthy, it is more like 99.95%.

True. I understood the shutdown at the beginning because there was so much uncertainty. The problem is now we know who is truly vulnerable and who isn’t, but we haven’t changed out strategies to reflect that, at least not where I live. My Governor is an obvious snake though.

 

[JORMBO]

My dentist is finally open next week.

 

[Liljagare]

A very even-handed article, I thought:

Sweden’s Coronavirus Strategy Will Soon Be the World’s

Herd immunity is the only realistic option—the question is how to get there safely.

www.foreignaffairs.com

Though, herd immunity is not the primary goal for Swedens path, the main goal is still to flatten the curve and buy time.

 

[cryptoadam]

The numbers in London look pretty bloody good. A Cambridge model predicts about a 20% infection rate in London (which would be about in line with New York and other dense cities) so there are a few possibilities here:
- Lockdown/social distancing has got that infection rate down really fucking low
- The infection rate SERIOUSLY slows down at 20% of population infected - if not herd immunity certainly herd slowing (if you think about it that drops the R considerably as 1 in 5 people it tries to reach are unavailable so if it's 1.0 without immunity it becomes 0.8 for instance).

We'll find out which of those it is as people get back to work in London but I'd say there's a decent chance of the latter.

Interesting because a lot of what I have seen/read is basically UK is up shits creek, London is the worst and that the UK will be a graveyard forever. Looks like to me London has done a pretty good job.

 

[hariseldon]

 

[hariseldon]

Interesting because a lot of what I have seen/read is basically UK is up shits creek, London is the worst and that the UK will be a graveyard forever. Looks like to me London has done a pretty good job.

We've had bad numbers no doubt but I can't help wondering if the government is still following the herd immunity strategy to some degree, just not telling people about it because as soon as you use the word herd people think you're comparing the public to cattle despite it being an accepted term in the field. It'll be interesting to see if 20% is in fact the infection ceiling, given the 17% rate on the cruise for instance.

 

[cryptoadam]

We've had bad numbers no doubt but I can't help wondering if the government is still following the herd immunity strategy to some degree, just not telling people about it because as soon as you use the word herd people think you're comparing the public to cattle despite it being an accepted term in the field. It'll be interesting to see if 20% is in fact the infection ceiling, given the 17% rate on the cruise for instance.

We had the post a while back from Sweden saying that they will hit herd immunity by June and that the number needed was closer to 40%, with some non peer reviewed studies from England showing as low as 20%.

I think it is possible that the decrease in cases could be attributed to the infection starting to reach its tipping point. Even if you don't hit the exact number you need for herd immunity, you will still lower the R0 the more infections you hit and will probably lowered the cases.

 

[hariseldon]

We had the post a while back from Sweden saying that they will hit herd immunity by June and that the number needed was closer to 40%, with some non peer reviewed studies from England showing as low as 20%.

I think it is possible that the decrease in cases could be attributed to the infection starting to reach its tipping point. Even if you don't hit the exact number you need for herd immunity, you will still lower the R0 the more infections you hit and will probably lowered the cases.

Indeed - as I posted above, my gut feeling is that let's say 20% are immune. Ordinarily with an R of 1 a family of 10 people will infect another 10 people. If 20% of those are immune then they can only infect 8 (it's a bit simplified but you get the point). It automatically reduces the R without having to actually take any action, which I suspect is part of what's informing various governments moves to open up.

 

[cryptoadam]

Indeed - as I posted above, my gut feeling is that let's say 20% are immune. Ordinarily with an R of 1 a family of 10 people will infect another 10 people. If 20% of those are immune then they can only infect 8 (it's a bit simplified but you get the point). It automatically reduces the R without having to actually take any action, which I suspect is part of what's informing various governments moves to open up.

Also 50% of deaths in Canada and EU are in old age homes. US its 1/3rd but I think that number is low, or is heavily skewed in the north east where its much higher and lower in the rest of the country.

If you stop fucking up and sending the virus into old age homes there is probably a big turn around in deaths/hospitilzations/ICU's etc...

 

[Jooxed]

Also 50% of deaths in Canada and EU are in old age homes. US its 1/3rd but I think that number is low, or is heavily skewed in the north east where its much higher and lower in the rest of the country.

If you stop fucking up and sending the virus into old age homes there is probably a big turn around in deaths/hospitilzations/ICU's etc...

Man I will tell you I work in one of these healthcare facilities and we were ahead of the curve as soon as this started we stopped visitors, we started temperature checks. Screen employees for any symptoms as they entered for all shifts sanitized all mail and packages that came in the building.

Our Maintenance team walked around with a sprayer every hour sanitizing all surfaces our dietary team no longer went into the rooms it was just the nursing staff who delivered the meals int he rooms because we isolated residents. All of our staff was issued N95's even us managers. We even had a sanitizing foot bath.

We had our first case last Saturday and we are up to 20 and 2 deaths now and the health department just tested the entire staff yesterday. You think you do everything right and it still found a way in.

 

[The Scrivener]

Lame. Each cutout costs 18 Euros. (After they're "used", I guess they could go in one of those fun cardboard Covid Coffins.)

Why do we tell such lies to ourselves... It's all one massive lie, and the little man has to listen to it...

 

[Guileless]

Cant wait for Schalke-Dortmund tomorrow morning, I really hope everything goes smoothly for the Bundesliga this weekend.

Has anyone else read up on the debate about the origins of the virus? It's a fascinating subject. I may make a dedicated thread.

 

[cryptoadam]

WUTANG WUTANG Killer Bees on attack best Protect Yo Neck

 

[ManaByte]

New COVID-19 Death Dispute: Colorado Coroner Says State Mischaracterized Death

Man who died of acute alcohol poisoning has death reclassified to COVID-19 by Colorado Department of Health and Environment, despite initial ruling by the coroner.

denver.cbslocal.com

Within a week, local Montezuma County Coroner George Deavers determined Yellow had died of acute alcohol poisoning, his blood alcohol measured at .55, nearly twice the lethal limit.

But Deavers said that before he even signed the death certificate, the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment had already categorized Yellow’s death as being due to COVID-19 and it was tabulated that way on the state’s website.

Last month, a CBS4 Investigation revealed the state health department reclassified three deaths at a Centennial nursing home as COVID-19 deaths, despite the fact attending physicians ruled all three were not related to coronavirus.

 

[hariseldon]

Man I will tell you I work in one of these healthcare facilities and we were ahead of the curve as soon as this started we stopped visitors, we started temperature checks. Screen employees for any symptoms as they entered for all shifts sanitized all mail and packages that came in the building.

Our Maintenance team walked around with a sprayer every hour sanitizing all surfaces our dietary team no longer went into the rooms it was just the nursing staff who delivered the meals int he rooms because we isolated residents. All of our staff was issues N95's even us managers. We even had a sanitizing foot bath.

We had our first case last Saturday and we are up to 20 and 2 deaths now and the health department just tested the entire staff yesterday. You think you do everything right and it still found a way in.

Hope you and the people you care about get through ok - good luck man.

 

[lock2k]

WUTANG WUTANG Killer Bees on attack best Protect Yo Neck

I like it.

Just fuck this forever bullshit, when a vaccine is available I'm going to be licking trains. lol

 

[hariseldon]

I like it.

Just fuck this forever bullshit, when a vaccine is available I'm going to be licking trains. lol

Why wait?

 

[Ornlu]

Because as of now, there isn't many reliable Antibody tests around. Since the Antibodies of this, are pretty similar to the Antibodies of other Coronaviruses, it's not easy to detect if you have Antibodies for Covid-19. Meaning tat even if you have developed Antibodies for Coronavirus, it could be, that you developed Antibodies for the yearly "mild" coronaviruses.

Receipts? I haven't seen that.

My dentist is finally open next week.

Amen. I've got a kid at home that's a month overdue to get their braces off. My heart goes out to anyone who has been waiting to get "non-life-threatening" dental pain fixed. That shit can give people a heart attack if it is let go too long.

 

[hariseldon]

Receipts? I haven't seen that.



Amen. I've got a kid at home that's a month overdue to get their braces off. My heart goes out to anyone who has been waiting to get "non-life-threatening" dental pain fixed. That shit can give people a heart attack if it is let go too long.

The UK has certified a test with a pretty high rate of accuracy. The Roche test - it'll be rolling out soon apparently.

 

[Nymphae]

Spoiler: The images from the tweet

 

[ManaByte]

Rules for thee...

 

[Nymphae]

 

[Tell_men]

Watch out for them butt sweats.

 

[Nymphae]

I love black conspiracy rants

 

[Omega Supreme Holopsicon]

99.9% is probably wrong. The real number is probably somewhere closer to 99.4 based early antibody testing. I don’t know why we aren’t doing massive antibody studies though.

 

[Stouffers]

Is there a way to see just the ACTIVE cases state by state?

 

[ManaByte]

TIME TO MOVE THE GOALPOSTS!

 

[Tell_men]

COVID-19 antibody treatment could be effective, but won't replace vaccine, medical experts say

A California-based biotech company said Friday that they believe they have a cure for the coronavirus in the form of an antibody that provides "100 [percent] inhibition" but the road to getting it to market may be an arduous one.

www.foxnews.com

———————————————————-
A California-based biotech company said Friday that they believe they have a cure for the coronavirus in the form of an antibody that provides "100 [percent] inhibition" but the road to getting it to market may be an arduous one.

"We want to emphasize there is a cure. There is a solution that works 100 percent," Sorrento Therapeutics founder and CEO Dr. Henry Ji told Fox News exclusively. "If we have the neutralizing antibody in your body, you don't need the social distancing. You can open up a society without fear."

————————————————————

 

[Insane Metal]

Brazil had 13K cases yesterday and 15K today. Holy fuck. We're screwed. And our Health Minister left today. Not even one month on this. This president we have is absolute trash and we're getting screwed even more because of him.

 

[Tell_men]

Brazil had 13K cases yesterday and 15K today. Holy fuck. We're screwed. And our Health Minister left today. Not even one month on this. This president we have is absolute trash and we're getting screwed even more because of him.

Sorry, man.

 

[dionysus]

Brazil had 13K cases yesterday and 15K today. Holy fuck. We're screwed. And our Health Minister left today. Not even one month on this. This president we have is absolute trash and we're getting screwed even more because of him.

US had like 50,000 in one day. US only 50% bigger.

 

[Insane Metal]

US had like 50,000 in one day.

Yeah, well, we're not the USA. We have 100 million people less, and our health infrastructure is complete shit. And the numbers are going up, we haven't gotten to the peak yet.

 

[dionysus]

Yeah, well, we're not the USA. We have 100 million people less, and our health infrastructure is complete shit. And the numbers are going up, we haven't gotten to the peak yet.

And that number of cases is normal for a country your size still in the growth phase. There is still zero evidence that more draconian lockdowns do much of anything.