2020 H1 TOTAL:
3.102.694
2020 H1 NSW HW:
2.666.882 (86%)
2020 H1 PS4 HW:
435.812 (14%)
2021 TOTAL HW:
2.518.407
2021 TOTAL NSW HW:
2.070.366 (72%)
2021 TOTAL PS4/PS5 HW:
448.041 (18%)
At current pace Switch needs around 6 weeks to surpass last year's first half total. Overall I'd expect in the first half of the year Switch to surpass
3 million units in Japan according to Famitsu. Which will be momentum heading into a much stronger Q3/Q4 especially if some of the rumored 1st and 3rd Party games end up launching in the holidays.
PS4/PS5 have already outsold the total Hardware sales PS4 achieved during the first half of last year, as we can remember at the time Sony had limited shipments of the PS4 in Japan. Overall if 20K per week is maintained we would be looking at 650K units sold by the middle of 2021 across the PS4/PS5.
Overall I think we would see around
3.7 million hardware sold across the Switch/PlayStation 4/PlayStation 5 in the first half of the year.
Switch meanwhile is around
Top 30 2020 H1 Famitsu:
- [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 5.004.720 NEW
- [PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix) - 931.165 NEW
- [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield (Pokemon Co) - 650.859
- [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 577.875
- [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 346.034
- [NSW] Smash Ultimate - 284.717
- [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 280.662
- [NSW] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon (Pokemon Co) - 259.513 NEW
- [PS4] Resident Evil 3 (Capcom) - 258.676 NEW
- [PS4] Yakuza 7: Like a Dragon (Sega) - 243.769 NEW
- [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training - 219.039
- [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 217.875
- [NSW] Super Mario Party - 212.515
- [PS4] The Last of Us Part II (Sony) - 204.689 NEW
- [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 171.620 NEW
- [PS4] Nioh 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 156.772 NEW
- [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 - 152.239
- [PS4] Persona 5 Scramble (Atlus) - 149.898 NEW
- [PS4] Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai) - 149.654 NEW
- [PS4] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 133.593 NEW
- [PS4] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai) - 131.315 NEW
- [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 130.369
- [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 123.920 NEW
- [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 122.091
- [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) 119.007
- [NSW] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 117.954 NEW
- [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 111.474
- [PS4] Granblue Fantasy Versus (Cygames) - 111.094 NEW
- [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 109.584
- [NSW] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 100.451 NEW
NSW -
20
PS4 -
10
TOTAL:
11.783.143
NSW TOTAL:
9.312.518 (79%)
PS4 TOTAL:
2.470.625 (21%)
TOP 30 2021 Famitsu:
- [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 1.884.113 NEW
- [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 879.623
- [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury - 658.642 NEW
- [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 423.417
- [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 357.060
- [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 326.438
- [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 272.267 NEW
- [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 229.552
- [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 198.436
- [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass - 195.375
- [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 161.232
- [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 152.586
- [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 136.091 NEW
- [NSW] Super Mario Party - 131.913
- [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 94.458
- [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 89.899
- [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 78.900
- [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 68.969
- [NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 65.620
- [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 64.558 NEW
- [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 56.954
- [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 56.153
- [NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 53.364
- [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 51.437
- [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 51.006
- [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 49.865
- [NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 36.105
- [NSW] Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) - 35.273
- [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 35.247
- [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 - 34.622
NSW -
30
PS4/PS5 -
0
TOTAL:
6.929.175
On the Software side Switch is only
2.4 million from overtaking last year's first half result with
Rise, Pokemon Snap, Rune Factory 5, Miitopia & MarioGolf being the major titles set to launch on the system for the reminder of the first half of the year. With this line-up I think we are likely to see the Top 30 to have around 10.5 million software sales on the Switch by mid year.
Based on the number of games set to launch in Q3, its entirely possible for software in the Top 30 to surpass
15 million by the end of Q3.
Outside of
Bandai, Square and Sega, this year most Japanese third parties are targeting the Switch by either making multiplat titles or going full exclusive, combine that with Nintendo & Pokemon Co also having more titles launching and it's a first for the Switch as it's likely that in terms of software results by the end of Q3 it will be close to the software sales achieved on the system for the entirety of last year.
Switch Exclusives 2021
Q1: Bowser's Fury(Nintendo), Olive Town(Marvelous), Bravely Default 2(Square Enix), Monster Hunter Rise(Capcom)
Q2: Pokemon Snap(Pokemon Co.), Rune Factory 5(Marvelous), Famicom Detective Club(Nintendo), Miitopia(Nintendo), Mario Golf(Nintendo),
Q3: Pro eBaseball Spirits 2021(Konami), Monster Hunter Stories 2(Capcom), Shin-Chan: My Summer Vacation(Neos), Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword HD(Nintendo), Yu-Gi-Oh Rush Duel(Konami), Shin Megami Tensei V(Atlus)
Combine this exclusive list with the fact that a lot of publishers are also going with a multiplat strategy and games like
Little Nightmares 2, Disgaea 6, Samurai Warriors 5, Ace Attorney Chronicles etc also selling best on the Switch, this year has totally accelerated the need for Japanese third party publishers to fully embrace Nintendo. Especially with Asia trending in a similar direction there would likely be a divergence in East/West in terms of which platforms are targeted at launch, especially as most Japanese third parties have focused on also growing an audience on PC in the past 4-5 years.
This basically spells out the situation for Sony this year and likely heading into 2022. This impact will be most heavily felt by Japanese third parties aligned to them and also their Western partners.
Overall PlayStation needs to basically invest heavily into securing exclusivity or M&A in order to keep even 5% of the market in Japan in 2021/2022.
If
Resident Evil, Scarlet Nexus,
Tails of Arise & Replicant all under perform than it would take a lot for Japanese third party to invest into PlayStation exclusivity and the development & marketing costs associated with competing with Western AAA efforts.
When we look to the future, it's rather loopsided in Japan and we haven't really felt the full impact of PS5 reality setting in or internal pipelines being entirely focused on Switch. Just in terms dated games
PS4/PS5 Exclusives >100K
Q1 2020: Nioh 2(Koei Tecmo), Yakuza 7(Sega), Granblue Fantasy: Versus(Cygames), Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot(Bandai Namco)
Q2 2020: FFVII Remake(Square Enix), Resident Evil 3(Capcom), The Last of Us Part II(Sony),
Q3 2020: Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme Vs(Bandai Namco), Ghost of Tsushima(Sony), The Legend of Heroes: Hajimari no Kiseki(Falcom)
Q4 2020: Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War(Sony), Cyberpunk 2077(Spike Chunsoft)
Q1 2021: nothing
Q2 2021: Nier Replicant(Square Enix), Resident Evil: Village(Capcom), Scarlet Nexus(Bandai Namco),
Q3 2021: Final Fantasy 7 Remake Intergrade(Square Enix), Tails of Arise(Bandai Namco)
Basically up until September the only significant titles are
RE:Village, Scarlet Nexus, Tails of Arise, FFVIIRI, and
Nier Replicant. With no title really guaranteed to surpass
200K physical sales, compare that to last year where we had
Resident Evil 3, Yakuza 7, FFVII Remake & TLOU2 all surpassing
200K in the first half of the year and six other titles surpassing
100K.
Overall the second half of 2020 was the first signs of the accelerated decline in terms of sales for the PlayStation 4, as supply for the system slowed down in preparation for PS5 launch and the biggest game of the 2nd half of the year
Ghost of Tsushima actually was hampered by the lack of hardware availability. There was no other title that surpassed
200K on the system and PS5's launch didn't really have any hit software in the fall or early parts of 2021.
Replicant will be the first tile to launch on the PS4 that has a chance of entering the Top 30 for the year; shortly followed by
Village and the software performance will tell us a lot about future Japanese third party support. If everyone is starting to make bank on the Switch like
Konami, Marvelous, Koei, Capcom have managed in the past 9 months there is little incentive to support the PS5 with exclusive games which in the past gave it a competitive advantage over the Nintendo ecosystems.