• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Xbox Game Pass subscriptions miss Microsoft’s target

onesvenus

Member
Well, I never implied that Game Pass is dead, but by the same token, MS can't make a habit out of missing projections for that division. Even if investors don't notice the numbers, MS does, and stuff like this can definitely affect the budget that the Xbox division is given to work with. That's just how things work, whether or not people want to acknowledge it.
But it can affect it the other way around also. You are acting if the only possible way to go is to have less budget for the Xbox division but maybe the realization is that they haven't been aggressive enough to realize their vision and that implies more budget.
 

kyoji

Member
Entirely and utterly wrong.
Hes only using an example because people arent running the numbers right.

zhuge literally tweeted as of june this year subs would have been around 20million mark. Is it the same number now as in june? Ofc not but we dont know how much of a difference in either direction the numbers are at AS OF TODAY.

If anything it exposes people like jez corden as frauds for reliable information, to be fair to him i do think he had a disclaimer of not being 100% sure on his reporting.
 
Last edited:
It actually shows something quite interesting, which isn't being talked about. By not hitting their 2021 projection, Game Pass lost ground in relation to the other services. That's probably not a big deal through, because MS had a lot of cloud service action in the past 2 years. They didn't maintain that 7% figure, however, it dropped to 5% of their total. That's precisely the type of thing that could get their budget cut, which is what I've been talking about. If MS thinks that more money should be going into the commercial cloud divisions, then the money has to come from somewhere. Teams and Game Pass didn't hit their projections. Cloud services exceeded projections. Guess where the investment money goes for 2022?
As an MSFT holder, you should realize that cloud is a core component of Gamepass.
 
People are just afraid that Gamepass will accelerate the death of physical games.

What they don't realize is that physical is already dead.
yeah i was one of those people for a long time. i bought every thing physical and loved "collecting" physical games. Bestbuy gamers club did contribute to it some since i was getting all games 20% off. However it just clicked in me that i've used steam for years and you don't own shit when you buy a digital game from steam and i've been "ok" with that. Every single game released today is not complete and requires a huge day 1 patch so i've said F it and buy all digital for convenience and fact that like you said, physical is already dead.
 

Chukhopops

Member
It actually shows something quite interesting, which isn't being talked about. By not hitting their 2021 projection, Game Pass lost ground in relation to the other services. That's probably not a big deal through, because MS had a lot of cloud service action in the past 2 years. They didn't maintain that 7% figure, however, it dropped to 5% of their total. That's precisely the type of thing that could get their budget cut, which is what I've been talking about. If MS thinks that more money should be going into the commercial cloud divisions, then the money has to come from somewhere. Teams and Game Pass didn't hit their projections. Cloud services exceeded projections. Guess where the investment money goes for 2022?
The percentage is related to the target split for the payout, not to the revenue. GamePass subs isn’t 7% of MS revenue lmao.

The split between targets would also be determined before the period, not after.

Hes only using an example because people arent running the numbers right.

zhuge literally tweeted as of june this year subs would have been around 20million mark. Is it the same number now as in june? Ofc not but we dont know how much of a difference in either direction the numbers are at AS OF TODAY.

If anything it exposes people like jez corden as frauds for reliable information, to be fair to him i do think he had a disclaimer of not being 100% sure on his reporting.
That’s not what he’s wrong about though. He doesn’t understand that the percentage is the YoY growth of total subs.
 

Topher

Gold Member
It actually shows something quite interesting, which isn't being talked about. By not hitting their 2021 projection, Game Pass lost ground in relation to the other services. That's probably not a big deal through, because MS had a lot of cloud service action in the past 2 years. They didn't maintain that 7% figure, however, it dropped to 5% of their total. That's precisely the type of thing that could get their budget cut, which is what I've been talking about. If MS thinks that more money should be going into the commercial cloud divisions, then the money has to come from somewhere. Teams and Game Pass didn't hit their projections. Cloud services exceeded projections. Guess where the investment money goes for 2022?

Well, let's be clear about what this is. These are not projected targets for the company. These are the targets that determine the level of performance awards of the key executives of the company. Not hitting the target means less of an award for those individuals. This isn't about segment budgets.
 

reksveks

Member
believe what you want man, but zhuge is a real analyst that reports on literally everything 🤷
AFAIK ZhugeEX is right and Dr Bass is wrong at the same time.

We are comparing YoY growth but that 18m is from a different point in time Jan 21 not june 20. Yes, we don't know what's happened between Jun and September but that's not related to any of the information in the sec filing.
 
Last edited:

Hari Seldon

Member
I let my sub go a long time ago for PC. It is not worth full price for me. Maybe if I was a game "influencer" or a teenager with infinite time to play all of the newest releases. But I don't have time for that. I want to play what I want to play, when I want to play it. If a non-gamepass game comes out that I want to play, I do not want to feel tied to the subscription such that I feel guilty not using it. Better to just purchase the games I want.
 

kyoji

Member
The percentage is related to the target split for the payout, not to the revenue. GamePass subs isn’t 7% of MS revenue lmao.

The split between targets would also be determined before the period, not after.


That’s not what he’s wrong about though. He doesn’t understand that the percentage is the YoY growth of total subs.
Jez reported in april, that GP was at 23million subs. Thats a pretty decent discrepancy from whats being reported on now, keep in mind xbox division never came out and correlated with that report of his (at least not what i had seen). So that would mean from april to june game pass loss roughly 3million subs in that time frame? Im not buying it. Its more reasonable to conclude it wasnt at that figure to begin with i’d think.
 
I agree with you on this.

The one thing that I don't know how to account for and it might not happen cause it might be irrelevant for major investors but in the next 1 to 4 weeks, we are getting the results of the big 3 platform holders. If MS sees a reasonable set of results relative to the other two, I don't know how that impacts plans. Need to double check when MS earnings call is.
I don't think MS worries too much about Sony and Nintendo, in a "big picture" aspect. They are up there with Google and Apple in terms of their scope. Look at the chart above that Topher provided (sorry didn't check to see how to link names). Game Pass is a relatively minor part of that chart. (Not that 5% is minor, but relatively speaking). MS is going to care far more about their own internal numbers, not what Sony is doing. Phil Spencer needs to worry about that, not MS.
And I guess, if the reports of PS5 taking Switch out of the top sales spot are accurate, then Xbox will have to consider their strategy moving forward. I don't envision a major shift in strategy though, at this point. They'll probably just lose a little budget flexibility next year.
And hey, if they hit 2022 projections, then the leash gets longer. That's just how it works. If a division is getting weaker comparatively to other divisions in the company, it's going to lose funding over time.
 

IntentionalPun

Ask me about my wife's perfect butthole
They'll hit critical mass way before they think they will IMO.

It's a great service, but they have their eyes on casuals.. like super casuals.. Candy Crunchers and kids playing Fortnite on phones.
 
The percentage is related to the target split for the payout, not to the revenue. GamePass subs isn’t 7% of MS revenue lmao.

The split between targets would also be determined before the period, not after.


That’s not what he’s wrong about though. He doesn’t understand that the percentage is the YoY growth of total subs.
I didn't say Game Pass was 7% of the revenue. That's a growth chart. I was assuming people could look at said chart and read it. Don't deliberately misrepresent what I'm saying.
 

SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes
Imagine a business seeing 37% YOY growth, the year after the COVID boom and it being painted as a negative.

Some of you guys are crazy
They are at 20 million according to Zhuge. That means they were around 15 million when the year started. So 5 million new subs in a year? Is it really that great? If Xbox consoles sold 5 million in a year, would you say they had a great year? After all, isnt that what gamepass is aiming to do? Make console sales irrelevant as a metric to gauge success in the industry?

And it is not AFTER the Covid boom. The Covid boom lasted all year last year. So from July till December, we were still in the covid boom. And this year they have just released a new console. Two in fact. Numbers should be better than that. Especially for a service thats just starting out.

Here are some stats on the covid boom.


They went from 10 million to 15 million during the first six months of covid from April to September.

Then they added 3 million from September to December.


So technically they had added 8 million users during the covid boom's 10 months. Then just 2 million in the next 6 months. Not great, not terrible. But I can promise you that if the next six months bring just 2 million new users, you know heads will roll.

I suspect Halo and Forza will bring in new users, but will they stick around? Thats why you need big games on the service on a consistent basis. The Forza crowd will stay around another month for Halo, but what then? They need to make a deal with From Software today and announce it so people dont let the sub lapse in January. Right now Redfall is their only game until Summer 2022. Then Starfield 6 months later. They need to fill the remaining months with AAA content. Clearly Outriders, Medium and MLB arent enough.Elden Rings, Dying Light 2, Hogwarts Legacy, Batman Court of Owls, Suicide Squad and Avatar are some of the bigger AAA games coming out next year. Avatar and Suicide Squad are probably too expensive, but the rest should be affordable for a company with 20 million subs. Thats $200 million in monthly revenue so they should be able to give $150 million to From which should equal 2.5 million sales.
 
Well, let's be clear about what this is. These are not projected targets for the company. These are the targets that determine the level of performance awards of the key executives of the company. Not hitting the target means less of an award for those individuals. This isn't about segment budgets.
Right, but it still shows the numbers of the other divisions involved in the bonus. You're right, he may not be getting bonuses from every division. I didn't take that into account. I was just looking at the numbers that made up the chart.
 

kyoji

Member
Jez was wrong with those numbers 100%
Well no shit bro, but that didnt stop people from running with false info, you can even look in earlier pages of this thread, people were basing the percentages off of his number and not the official number last reported.
 

Derktron

Banned
Everyone from Disney to HBO and Netflix releases sub numbers. MS needs to do the same.

I get that no one wants to admit to doing poorly at the box office or NPD, but come on, you gotta show the numbers no matter what.
Why does it matter to you? Are you an actual investor lol -- I hope Microsoft keeps it a secret just to piss you, people, off lol
Season 9 Lol GIF by The Office

quiet tim and eric GIF
 

chonga

Member
So the Xbox crowd has gone from 'it is 30m, the Take 2 CEO does know the numbers, it is high growth but you are forgetting they added all the Bethesda titles, that acquisition is putting in work' to 'so what if it is 20m, just wait for Halo guys'.
 

reksveks

Member
Well no shit bro, but that didnt stop people from running with false info, you can even look in earlier pages of this thread, people were basing the percentages off of his number and not the official number last reported.
I can't control those people sadly and that conversation.

How often do they actually hit those targets for any of their products?
I want to know that and how many companies have missed their executive compensation targets.
 

Chukhopops

Member
I didn't say Game Pass was 7% of the revenue. That's a growth chart. I was assuming people could look at said chart and read it. Don't deliberately misrepresent what I'm saying.
Im not sure what you meant then, it sounded like you were saying that because they missed the target the % of the payout split was reduced to 5%. Which is dumb because the split is determined before the period starts, not after.

Also no idea what a « growth chart » refers to in the context of the document.
 

Topher

Gold Member
What happened is in 2020 services like Teams and Gamepass grew way more than expected, so the targets for 2021 were aggressive. As it turns out, they were slightly too aggressive. People acting like this has any huge implications for anything is weird.

That's true. Performance metrics are often designed to improve upon previous numbers. The only point of interest with this is that it gives a better idea of what the Game Pass numbers actually are. Any suggestion that this means Game Pass is not performing as well as MS thought it would is just not accurate. The goals for executive awards are high, as they should be. This is not the same as things such as projected earnings. Those are estimated to be as accurate as possible, not overly optimistic like these targets.
 
Last edited:
But it can affect it the other way around also. You are acting if the only possible way to go is to have less budget for the Xbox division but maybe the realization is that they haven't been aggressive enough to realize their vision and that implies more budget.
I don't think you're thinking this one through. They bought Bethesda, for quite a sum of cash, banking on the acquisition to bolster subs. It might have worked, but not to the degree they expected, obviously, look at the numbers. So you think that MS solution is going to be to EXPAND the budget more than they already did last year?
It is really clear that there's a lot of people who just want to think of this in terms of video games, and ignore how business operates in the real world. Hey, I get it,I like games too. That's why I'm here. But I can also separate gaming from the reality of the financial world. If a division of a company underperformed, and other divisions overperform, the money doesn't get funneled into the underperforming division. There's a saying in business "Don't water your weeds, and cut the head off your flowers". Game Pass isn't exactly a weed, but MS has bigger flowers to grow.
 

SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes
Why does it matter to you? Are you an actual investor lol -- I hope Microsoft keeps it a secret just to piss you, people, off lol
Whats this nonsense? Every industry releases numbers. That's just how things work. I have been following the movie box office for almost 25 years now. Every weekend you get numbers. Hell, you used to get daily numbers. NPD numbers for the gaming industry have been a staple until recently. Even now Nintendo and Sony release sales numbers every quarter. That's just part of following an industry. You dont have to be an investor lmao. What are you new to forums?

MS had no problems releasing numbers when their numbers were going up from 10 to 15 then to 18 million. Now all of a sudden they are being shy. No. You have to take the good with the bad. Hollywood doesnt hide an underperforming movie. Netflix doesnt hide a bad quarter.



Each of those news stories created a thread here. We all participated and i highly doubt we all had MS stock.

I mean whats next? We are no longer going to discuss AMD and Nvidia sales figures because we are not investors? I was actually very close to buying up AMD and Nvidia stock a few years ago but chose to go with other tech stocks. So would I be allowed to comment on the matter if I owned their stock? Nonsense.
 

spons

Gold Member
Microsoft ought to inject some aggressive marketing into this. Sony advertises heavily in Europe on TV and in sports, for example the Champions League. You literally see Aloy on the field in a commercial, or Kratos walking up the stairs with a football team. What is it with Microsoft, and their Xbox division in particular, that everything needs to be word of mouth for them? Just dump a stream of commercials on boomer media. I really believe it can help.
 
I don't think you're thinking this one through. They bought Bethesda, for quite a sum of cash, banking on the acquisition to bolster subs. It might have worked, but not to the degree they expected, obviously, look at the numbers. So you think that MS solution is going to be to EXPAND the budget more than they already did last year?
It is really clear that there's a lot of people who just want to think of this in terms of video games, and ignore how business operates in the real world. Hey, I get it,I like games too. That's why I'm here. But I can also separate gaming from the reality of the financial world. If a division of a company underperformed, and other divisions overperform, the money doesn't get funneled into the underperforming division. There's a saying in business "Don't water your weeds, and cut the head off your flowers". Game Pass isn't exactly a weed, but MS has bigger flowers to grow.
Again, as a MSFT holder you should understand what role Gamepass plays for Microsoft and why they're all in on it. Those other flowers you're talking about are the core component used to grow Gamepass into a Netflix-tier subscription service over the next years. Gamepass isn't isolated here.
 
Im not sure what you meant then, it sounded like you were saying that because they missed the target the % of the payout split was reduced to 5%. Which is dumb because the split is determined before the period starts, not after.

Also no idea what a « growth chart » refers to in the context of the document.
Oh, I wasn't talking about the projection splits per se, but they are part of the figure. If you look at the top of the page, it's basically a bonus payout for a "named executive". The bonuses are based off the performance of the various named divisions. Aka Game Pass, Teams, Commercial cloud, etc. If you look at the "Weight" column, and add them all up, you'd see that it equals 100%. That column denotes the % of what each division delivered his bonus to him. The year before, Game Pass made up 7% of the money, and exceeded projections. In the following year (this year's miss that we're discussing), Game Pass only made up 5% of the figure. The divisions were the same divisions, but Game Pass, by missing projections, and by the fact that other divisions beat their projections, went down in relative weight. That means that it is comparatively shrinking in relation to those other divisions, despite the growth YOY.
 

Lognor

Banned
What happened is in 2020 services like Teams and Gamepass grew way more than expected, so the targets for 2021 were aggressive. As it turns out, they were slightly too aggressive. People acting like this has any huge implications for anything is weird.
Yep. Same thing happened with my company. My company (and my industry in general) had a blowout year in 2020 and our projections for 2021 were based on 2020, which was not indicative of a normal market. Now we have revised our goals downward twice over the course of the year and it will still be a stretch to hit those goals by YE.

What's also funny is that I recall reading posts online when Nintendo failed to hit their sales goals for the Switch in 2018 (?). People were crying doom and gloom even though they still sold a large number of consoles. And then you look at what happened since and they have been doing gangbusters. But people love to overreact, don't they?
 

Derktron

Banned
Whats this nonsense? Every industry releases numbers. That's just how things work. I have been following the movie box office for almost 25 years now. Every weekend you get numbers. Hell, you used to get daily numbers. NPD numbers for the gaming industry have been a staple until recently. Even now Nintendo and Sony release sales numbers every quarter. That's just part of following an industry. You dont have to be an investor lmao. What are you new to forums?

MS had no problems releasing numbers when their numbers were going up from 10 to 15 then to 18 million. Now all of a sudden they are being shy. No. You have to take the good with the bad. Hollywood doesnt hide an underperforming movie. Netflix doesnt hide a bad quarter.



Each of those news stories created a thread here. We all participated and i highly doubt we all had MS stock.

I mean whats next? We are no longer going to discuss AMD and Nvidia sales figures because we are not investors? I was actually very close to buying up AMD and Nvidia stock a few years ago but chose to go with other tech stocks. So would I be allowed to comment on the matter if I owned their stock? Nonsense.
Spoken like a true gamer, like gives a flying ass about that, as long as the service is going and not going to be discontinued then why should YOU worry about some damn sale numbers? I mean if it does then sure by all means worry about it. But I sure wish I had your type of worrying. I wish I was you bro because lol this is funny. Why not go and ask Microsoft and you have to ask nicely okay if not they won't give you the numbers, and tell them Derktron sent you. My uncle works at Microsoft

Funny Face Reaction GIF
 

XXL

Member
Why does it matter to you? Are you an actual investor lol -- I hope Microsoft keeps it a secret just to piss you, people, off lol
Your tone is quite different in comparison to the thread about 30M subs.
Big Brother Reaction GIF by MOODMAN

You might want to reassess your theory on who took an L.
 
Yep. Same thing happened with my company. My company (and my industry in general) had a blowout year in 2020 and our projections for 2021 were based on 2020, which was not indicative of a normal market. Now we have revised our goals downward twice over the course of the year and it will still be a stretch to hit those goals by YE.

What's also funny is that I recall reading posts online when Nintendo failed to hit their sales goals for the Switch in 2018 (?). People were crying doom and gloom even though they still sold a large number of consoles. And then you look at what happened since and they have been doing gangbusters. But people love to overreact, don't they?
Same for my company. Making perfect predictions in 2020 and 2021 was essentially impossible. Even 2022 looks volatile.
 

Derktron

Banned
Your tone is quite different in comparison to the thread about 30M subs.
Big Brother Reaction GIF by MOODMAN

You might want to reassess your theory on who took an L.
I don't need to do anything......Ignored.
 

Sosokrates

Report me if I continue to console war
Imo the heavy 1st party games are missing. Games announced in 2020 are mia or MS announces more with pointless CGI Trailers and no release date.
They also need to get more 3rd partys onboard. Imagine if that Battlefield 2042 rumor turned out true with it beiing day 1 in gamepass.
The agressive MS needs to come back.

Dont worry.

This fall they have the best exclusive line up with forza horizon 5 and Halo infinite and they are competitive in 2022 with redfall, stalker 2, starfield and forza. They also have Multiplat games like A Plague Tale: Requiem coming day 1 to gamepass, deathloop + ghostwire Tokyo will be coming to gamepass too.
 
Last edited:

WoJ

Member
There's a big difference between a company missing its target by 10%, or a subdivision of a subdivision of a company missing its target by 10%.
While true, the same logic still applies. The company is going to look at the data points, evaluate why they missed the target and adjust their strategy for that subdivision accordingly. There's a reason they targeted 48%. To come up 11% short in that subdivision may mean something in the eyes of management. It may mean very little in the eyes of management. But I haven't worked at a company where a subdivision underperformed and no changes were implemented. Sometimes it takes multiple rounds of underperformance, but it does lead to changes over time.

And to reiterate, I'm not suggesting gamepass is a failure or Microsoft is scrapping it. Just that missing a target by that much likely means some folks aren't getting bonus payouts (or at least smaller ones) and the company will use this data point to take action. What that action is remains to be seen.
 
Last edited:

IntentionalPun

Ask me about my wife's perfect butthole
Whats this nonsense? Every industry releases numbers. That's just how things work. I have been following the movie box office for almost 25 years now. Every weekend you get numbers. Hell, you used to get daily numbers. NPD numbers for the gaming industry have been a staple until recently. Even now Nintendo and Sony release sales numbers every quarter. That's just part of following an industry. You dont have to be an investor lmao. What are you new to forums?

MS had no problems releasing numbers when their numbers were going up from 10 to 15 then to 18 million. Now all of a sudden they are being shy. No. You have to take the good with the bad. Hollywood doesnt hide an underperforming movie. Netflix doesnt hide a bad quarter.

Companies with a small amount of revenue sources, or single targets to hit, generally can't avoid releasing those numbers.

It's not like MS never releases disappointing numbers as a company as well.

Companies with a massive amount of revenue sources aren't always as transparent. Plenty of subscription services from big corps don't appear in every quarterly PR statement, we don't know how every single product at Apple is doing for instance, we don't know how every single Sony product for that matter is doing. We hear about Playstation because it's been the core profit sector for the company just like we hear a lot of numbers from Cloud and Office for Microsoft.

And MS will release a number again when they want to.. or feel it is a good PR moment for Gamepass. They'll release a disappointing number if their shareholders are demanding it too.

If Netflix stopped reporting their subscriber numbers, their stockholders would freak out... MS isn't in that position w/ Gamepass.
 
Last edited:
As an MSFT holder, you should realize that cloud is a core component of Gamepass.
And if you merely take one second to glance at the chart provided by Topher, you'd see that Game Pass is considered separate from their "cloud services" divisions. Game Pass uses the cloud, but the cloud could care less about Game Pass, relatively speaking. I mean, you could just look at the numbers, but I guess you're more interested in pretending that I'm a Sony fanboy, based on your "fire" and "lol". You think I want the stock price to go down or something? You clearly are looking at this from a strictly gaming viewpoint.
 

SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes
Spoken like a true gamer, like gives a flying ass about that, as long as the service is going and not going to be discontinued then why should YOU worry about some damn sale numbers? I mean if it does then sure by all means worry about it. But I sure wish I had your type of worrying. I wish I was you bro because lol this is funny. Why not go and ask Microsoft and you have to ask nicely okay if not they won't give you the numbers, and tell them Derktron sent you. My uncle works at Microsoft
Why are you in this thread if you dont care? It seems like you care enough to get triggered over someone asking for numbers in a financials thread. Maybe take your own advice and leave the thread?

I dont give a flying fuck about many things. I dont care about Accessibility in video games. I am not in that thread telling people I dont give a flying ass. I dont care about Metroid Dread, Resident Evil 4 VR, or GOW starting out as a first person game. I am not in those threads derailing them because I dont get triggered by people discussing things they have interest in.

You are like that dude who goes to parties, joins a discussion and then laughs at people for discussing it. Super lame.
 
And if you merely take one second to glance at the chart provided by Topher, you'd see that Game Pass is considered separate from their "cloud services" divisions. Game Pass uses the cloud, but the cloud could care less about Game Pass, relatively speaking. I mean, you could just look at the numbers, but I guess you're more interested in pretending that I'm a Sony fanboy, based on your "fire" and "lol". You think I want the stock price to go down or something? You clearly are looking at this from a strictly gaming viewpoint.
The entire reason why Satya is all-in on Gamepass is because Gamepass can leverage Microsofts cloud structure to grow to numbers where even the skeptical Take 2 CEO is impressed. Microsoft is in a unique market position here (compared to Sony, Nintendo, Google and Amazon) and will drive this unique advantage home, no matter what. Something like Gamepass wouldn't work for any other company.
 

XXL

Member
Why are you in this thread if you dont care? It seems like you care enough to get triggered over someone asking for numbers in a financials thread. Maybe take your own advice and leave the thread?
He cares, read this.

I would advise reading this thread (above) before engaging with people here. The disingenuous behavior on display here is staggering.
 
Last edited:
Top Bottom