Support NeoGAF

[Darryl]

I don't believe this, and I also don't believe that handheld gaming consoles are going away anytime soon because of mobile phones. I know a lot of people who enjoy buying things, and investing yourself entirely into one device just isn't going to happen. Streaming devices are questionable, but I'm not sure if they'll capture enough of the market to justify all of the expenses involved.

I think Nintendo has the right approach this time. Don't try to be everything. Don't be expensive. No shoving Blu-Ray in there. Don't center your updates around streaming sports. Just be the go-to gaming device and focus entirely on that.

 

[Foffy]

If you look at where we were 10 years ago, you can see that 10 years is an extremely long time. I say we will see it a little sooner...5-7 years.

But not too much of this market has changed. It still relies heavily on physical releases. There's just more of a presence of a digital front now. To say one will eclipse the other to the point one no longer exists in 5-7 years is pure insanity. If anything, we'll enter generations where you can go for the streaming box with a cheaper, monthly fee ala iPhones with a plan or an expensive box with physical products ala an iPhone with no plan. I'd gladly pay more for physical over digital, because as a consumer I'm probably better off in doing so.

In fact, what Nintendo's doing with 3DS is what I want from future generations. Retail and digital releases of the same games, and it's up to the consumer to make their choice how they see fit. It encompasses both markets with no direct downsides in doing so. Nobody gets fucked with a style like that.

 

[RoyalFool]

Yeah, but:

a- I have not been forced to switch to mobile gaming (Jon was not either fwiw) and I still said it. Nor have I been forced to switch to PC/MAC gaming (which is actually what we're doing next).

b- Funny how some folks seem unable to read things and then comprehend them mere moments after they've read them. Sad state of affairs when people took what I said as me saying 'big budget mega games like CALL OF DUTY, GOD OF WAR, UNCHARTED, GEARS OF WAR' are going away. What's actually fantastic about the streaming solution- once it is viable in enough parts of the world to make it profitable- is that you don't need to upgrade your hardware to get the best of breed visuals. How can folks who consider themselves core gamers not be going ape shit over that?!? How cool is it that you come home and play a new game and it looks better than any other game you've ever played because a) the team is fantastic so they made a great looking game and b) the team is building the game for a super ripped piece of hardware that only the streaming service has to own?!?

David

I worked for a while on onlive packet shaping, it's not going to replace consoles for a very long time. It will take 2 more generations just to convince people to buy all digital, and it'll only take one company going under for people to revert back. Games are probably the worst medium to stream in terms if cost vs performance, it seems that until there is a massive overhaul of how fast we can shoot a packet over the continent, it makes more financial sense to stream movies, desktops or to use it as a throw away delivery platform for demos.

id also say that the increased life cycle of this generation just shows that were gradually reaching a plateau graphically which should mean much longer life cycles and lower costs. If they want to stream to handheld devices. They might as well stream from their own hardware.

 

[Emitan]

That's all you should have said Jaffe.

yeah fuck speculation

who cares what anyone thinks if it isn't a fact

 

[abasm]

Unless the quality of Nintendo titles declines some time in the next decade, then Nintendo games will only appear on dedicated Nintendo systems. Their business model is driven by a vast quantity of strong first-party software, for which there will always be a market. Even if its competitors evolve, Nintendo doesn't have to, because the software is always there.

They probably will never hit Wii levels of success an ubiquity ever again, though.

 

[Rollo Lawson]

But not too much of this market has changed. It still relies heavily on physical releases. There's just more of a presence of a digital front now. To say one will eclipse the other to the point one no longer exists in 5-7 years is pure insanity.

I can't really get thoughtful on dat ass since I'm doped up on Sudafed, but if you consider everything current, it's certainly not insanity.

 

[Game2Death]

Ahh, its all in one service. Well, it would be a lot less hassle that's for sure. But the way i see it, just the movie studios today cant even agree on Netflix so i dont see how or why everyone would agree on this. I still don't see that happening.

I thought about this. From what I understand Netflix pays x amount to get the rights to get x companys movies. And the amount went up and Netflix became more popular as it ate into other sales, losing moive company money.

Now....why shouldn't the price of Netflix go up a bit, BUT all movies are in it and every time a user watches x company's movie that company get $ for that view. Therefore popular movies earn more money and better movies earn the most money and the user has access to them all 24/7.

Businesses confuse me sometimes >.>

 

[Durante]

I worked for a while on onlive packet shaping, it's not going to replace consoles for a very long time. It will take 2 more generations just to convince people to buy all digital, and it'll only take one company going under for people to revert back. Games are probably the worst medium to stream in terms if cost vs performance, it seems that until there is a massive overhaul of how fast we can shoot a packet over the continent, it makes more financial sense to stream movies, desktops or to use it as a throw away delivery platform for demos.

id also say that the increased life cycle of this generation just shows that were gradually reaching a plateau graphically which should mean much longer life cycles and lower costs. If they want to stream to handheld devices. They might as well stream from their own hardware.

That's what I really want. Full streaming of anything from my PC or PS3 to Vita. At least for PC, anyone should be able to make it happen.

 

[EloquentM]

He's so right

 

[Silly.Mikey]

I thought about this. From what I understand Netflix pays x amount to get the rights to get x companys movies. And the amount went up and Netflix became more popular as it ate into other sales, losing moive company money.

Now....why shouldn't the price of Netflix go up a bit, BUT all movies are in it and every time a user watches x company's movie that company get $ for that view. Therefore popular movies earn more money and better movies earn the most money and the user has access to them all 24/7.

Businesses confuse me sometimes >.>

Control is what kills it. Everyone wants control which is why no one gets along.

 

[davidjaffe]

That's all you should have said Jaffe.

That IS what I said. They pressed me for an answer, I dug chatting with the guy, he reached out to me and asked for an interview and I woulda felt like a dick if I would have said 'yes, I'll do your interview' and then not answered the man's questions. Those guys have always been pretty cool/kind/smart so I'm happy to respect the reporter's question.

But yeah man, I don't know. I get nostalgia, I get bandwidth limits, I get the desire for physical media,etc,etc,etc.

But I also get that my time playing HAWKEN and BATTLEFIELD (2 I think?) streamed over GAIKAI was sublime.

Not sure why these things always have to turn into such a pissing contest. If I was at a bar with you- assuming you are of drinkin' age- these are the kinds of conversations I would like to have with fellow gamers and geeks. Shit turns so personal so often on the net these days, makes me long for a premium membership to NEOGAF for 20 bucks a year or something where you HAVE to use your real name. I know, I know- that won't be popular either but damn, you'd think amongst fellow gamer folks things would not get so heated. Good news is, I guess that means folks are passionate, so I dig that .

David

ps. not saying you were getting heated, just response from some in general. Your post just seemed like the most fun one to respond to .

 

[Ninja Scooter]

real life role playing will take over video gaming.

 

[Endo Punk]

The term console implies only playing games but this gen systems do so much I see no reason why the market for them will disappear.

 

[Atomski]

He could be right.. I could see in the future there just being some sort of multimedia box. Pretty much a bluray/streaming player that plays casual games.


Anyways.. I bet in 10 years PC gaming will be even more awesome. So no beef here.

 

[Rollo Lawson]

David Jaffe, you gotta stop popping up on people. That shit is scary.

 

[Goldrusher]

David Jaffe walks into a bar. The bartender looks up and says, "Get the fuck out of here."

 

[Takuan]

I feel rising development costs, the unrealistic sales projections that come with them, and the disappearance of mid-tier studios will have more to do with the end of consoles than the market deciding it only cares to game on the iPad/iPhone or over the cloud.

It would actually be pretty neat if I could stream AAA games from all publishers on a future TV set regardless of its make, though.

 

[Version 3.0]

If the next round of consoles makes money - and they will - then there'll be another.

 

[KingJ2002]

I see this happening as well... steaming services, digital downloads, and diminishing returns on console graphic capabilities will make dedicated gaming machines pointless.

companies will become software pushers and online store owners.

there might be a company or two that does things a little differently... but either way... consoles will be gone next decade.


I mean... dedicated gaming consoles died during this generation and ushered into a new world of set top boxes

now the box is disappearing in favor of the service and any device that supports it. of course some sort of standards must be in place before this happens... but it will.


and then the industry will become a sea of content pushers.

1st party, 2nd party, 3rd party... all moot at some point in the future.

 

[Foffy]

I can't really get thoughtful on dat ass since I'm doped up on Sudafed, but if you consider everything current, it's certainly not insanity.

We've seen enough issues with nearly every digital service (even Steam, but it's the weakest offender of them all) to see digital only as a problem for consumers and less of a must. Those who want a digital-only future want it for convenience and the hopes that digital streaming means no company is limited by hardware anymore. With convenience comes less power as a consumer, and companies can still be limited by hardware when having to manage costs for the game, the servers to hold the game, and having a good enough connection for players. Diablo III was just a blip of the problems that can happen if this was the only way to play games. Having it as the only option seems insane because I cannot fathom how ridiculous things would be, hearing about the issues that already exist on what could be on a daily basis.

And again, a lot of that's digital, where you're still getting the game in some "ownership". Imagine streaming. Jesus..

 

[Eusis]

real life role playing will take over video gaming.

Nerf balls for everyone!

 

[Man]

Living room App-Store is the one console future.

 

[BHK3]

He's an idiot, there will be consoles next gen and the gen after that.

 

[Ranger X]

I agree the market is changing. I think that next-gen we are entering the realm of "diminishing returns". We will simply be able to make pretty much the game we want and the only real blocker will be money. The more time passes by, the less the need of a new hardware will be felt and consoles will go down. The only way to sustain this business longer would be to create an official medium for videogames. Yes, the "unified" console people are laughing at. We could be in a world made of that console + Nintendo that would probably play the hard guys. But if this happens, the hardware business would flourish again. Any makers of electronics could try and make a player, just like they compete now for BRD players. And on the software side, will this incredibly huge user base, sales would also flourish again. It will also be benefital for gamers because since the competition would be strong at the software level, general quality of the offerings would go up and prices would go down.

But hey, does this industry want this great future?

 

[Silly.Mikey]

That IS what I said. They pressed me for an answer, I dug chatting with the guy, he reached out to me and asked for an interview and I woulda felt like a dick if I would have said 'yes, I'll do your interview' and then not answered the man's questions. Those guys have always been pretty cool/kind/smart so I'm happy to respect the reporter's question.

But yeah man, I don't know. I get nostalgia, I get bandwidth limits, I get the desire for physical media,etc,etc,etc.

But I also get that my time playing HAWKEN and BATTLEFIELD (2 I think?) streamed over GAIKAI was sublime.

Not sure why these things always have to turn into such a pissing contest. If I was at a bar with you- assuming you are of drinkin' age- these are the kinds of conversations I would like to have with fellow gamers and geeks. Shit turns so personal so often on the net these days, makes me long for a premium membership to NEOGAF for 20 bucks a year or something where you HAVE to use your real name. I know, I know- that won't be popular either but damn, you'd think amongst fellow gamer folks things would not get so heated. Good news is, I guess that means folks are passionate, so I dig that .

David

ps. not saying you were getting heated, just response from some in general. Your post just seemed like the most fun one to respond to .

That would be a great idea if that information wasn't then used to hack into my xbox live account and shit

 

[Marty Chinn]

I feel rising development costs, the unrealistic sales projections that come with them, and the disappearance of mid-tier studios will have more to do with the end of consoles than the market deciding it only cares to game on the iPad/iPhone or over the cloud.

It would actually be pretty neat if I could stream AAA games from all publishers on a future TV set regardless of its make, though.

They go hand in hand. It isn't anyone factor; it's the combination of them.

 

[BigDug13]

It's going to be a tougher road in the U.S. where ISP's want to throttle back your connection speed, latency, and cap your usage for the month. Imagine how many of your allotted monthly bits would be used up streaming the latest CoD visuals to your home, or what kind of connection speed you would need to do it? Do you really think most of the United States will be sitting at 20mbps+ downlink speed in 10 years?

They've completely deregulated all the previous requirements that these companies roll out fiber everywhere and they're more than content with providing mediocre connection speeds nationwide for top dollar.

I pay $80 per month for 80mbps uplink and 80mbps downlink speed here in Japan. And that high price is mostly because our dollar value sucks. If the exchange rate was what it was back in 2007, it would only be like $55 for 80mbps down/up speed internet. Worth every penny.

Will the U.S. ever see those speeds? How many years will it take? That's going to be the major hurdle in adopting these types of practices as the future of gaming.

 

[Game2Death]

Control is what kills it. Everyone wants control which is why no one gets along.

Yeah...that's what made Origin. It's gonna suck if it ends up as PSN, LIVE, Steam, Origin, and whatever else ending up as streaming service with different games and their own sub.

Lesson learned...America and corporate greed make everything more difficult and make tech advance slower.

Damnit >.>

 

[TwiztidElf]

I just read the other article about free to play, and it lines up with his comments on Giantbomb E3 Day zero.

The biggest thing for Jaffe now is figuring out how to build a successful free-to-play product that's successful and isn't "pay to win."
"So while I love parts of free-to-play, I hate other parts. I hate how it's like the tail wagging the dog and it's the business model and all about getting people to pay [with more micro-transactions]. You can listen to developers all day long tell you it's not pay to win, but you know, it kind of is pay to win. I'm not saying they're evil or they're lying - but one of the things they like to say is pay with your time or pay with your money. Well both of those are really shitty," Jaffe commented.
"Let's take a shooter - if you think about what's happened with shooters, so much of what makes shooters today work (and it's unfortunate that sometimes it's the only thing that makes them work besides graphics and spectacle) is sort of the morphine drip of powering up and leveling up. So if you're saying pay with your time, you're saying have sort of a crappy time because we're stretching out those morphine drips really long because we want to motivate you to pay. And if you pay immediately and get the really cool stuff, then suddenly you don't have that meta desire for a while to go back to it and to want to keep playing," he added.

I enjoy Jaffes commentary as much as the next guy, and I agree with him that paying to bypass content or powerlevel is bad, but not every F2P does this.
League of Legends does not. Sure, you can pay to buy the champions, but it doesn't give you a gameplay advantage.
Not quite sure if Jaffe is saying all F2P's do this though.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

As a PC gamer, consoles feel so pointless to me. Even from a U.I. and community perspective Steam seems to be a decent alternative.

The advantages to consoles were that they were simple and cheap. Those advantages seem to have gone away both due to the hardware giants (at least two of them) ignoring them and PC and other hardware catching up with them.

 

[Silly.Mikey]

Yeah...that's what made Origin. It's gonna suck if it ends up as PSN, LIVE, Steam, Origin, and whatever else ending up as streaming service with different games and their own sub.

Lesson learned...America and corporate greed make everything more difficult and make tech advance slower.

Damnit >.>

Ya exactly, Origin. Was there even a fuckin demand or need for this? Nope, but now i gotta use Steam, Origin, Live, pay for apps on Live like Netflix and HBO etc.. and its just going to get much much worst. That much i can guarantee you.

 

[Mastperf]

The lag issues can be dealt with, but the problem is that the people who want lower-lag tech in telecoms (companies like Gaikai and Onlive) aren't the same as the people who'd have to actually pay for and install it (the telecoms operators). If fixed-line telecoms was a properly functioning, fully competitive industry, we'd all already have 100Mbps FTTH with sub 1ms lag by now, but unfortunately it's not, and I don't see it improving a whole lot in the near future.



I'm pretty sure there's a Harrison Ford gif for posts like this one...

You aren't going to sub 1ms lag regardless of what they do. You get 1ms pinging your own router or modem. You're doing good if you're able to to get 10ms or less ping to your own isp in your town. They can't change the laws of physics. Keep in mind that I'm on a fiber network that's less than 3 years old and offers 1gb symmetrical connections.
I'm not trying to attack you or anything but just thought I'd chime in. Your main point is completely valid though and I agree.

 

[goomba]

Unless the quality of Nintendo titles declines some time in the next decade, then Nintendo games will only appear on dedicated Nintendo systems. Their business model is driven by a vast quantity of strong first-party software, for which there will always be a market. Even if its competitors evolve, Nintendo doesn't have to, because the software is always there.

They probably will never hit Wii levels of success an ubiquity ever again, though.

Never say never, I dont think anyone expected the Wii' success after the Gamecube .

 

[Eusis]

Also: I can't help but feel this sort of stuff sounds really good, and the people pushing for it really do know what they're talking about and how to get it to work... but may be underestimating costs, or how much some people need to be pushed, nevermind whether they can even be pushed at all. Situations where ambition gets trashed by reality.

Or it'll grow, but remain a supplementary service, much like Netflix and hulu still are to buying hard copies. Wouldn't mind that happening at all like I said earlier, whether or not we get an ideal of being tied together like we sorta saw with Deus Ex. By the way, my personal experience with Onlive was that Amnesia worked surprisingly well, while F3AR was just a jittery mess.

 

[Foffy]

Ya exactly, Origin. Was there even a fuckin demand or need for this? Nope, but now i gotta use Steam, Origin, Live, pay for apps on Live like Netflix and HBO etc.. and its just going to get much much worst. That much i can guarantee you.

Thankfully, or perhaps tragically, I see these companies emulating Hollywood: big blockbuster experiences. And just as I see Hollywood, a lot of it is hollow, and shit I don't care for. My interest in gaming hasn't declined, but I know I sure as shit am spending less on games, because what I like isn't coming out often. Perhaps it's a blessing of being disinterested in "what's hot" with games today, that everyone's trying to copy, that the very few games that don't follow the herd are the games I can potentially get interested in. I haven't used Live in over a year, and only bought two 360 games last year, and only one of those was a 2011 title. We have more channels than ever for games, but I'm buying and playing less of these new games. Funny how that works.

 

[Vigilant Walrus]

LOL at pc.


Maybe the hardcore but I'm starting to regret my pc that i built a few years ago for gaming.

I took down my computer desk. moved the pc to next to the tv. Its just really an itunes server now, with some gaming. Some people are married to their xbl achievements, I'm married to my trophies and PS games. I even prefer hulu plus/netflix/amazon video on my ps3 over my pc.

What would I do for everything else?(surfing, forums etc).

iPad on a stand with a bluetooth keyboard.


Post PC world baby

something tells me that you made some mistakes in your pc adventures.


why would you prefer using PSN as a middle man? come on - these services are half baked on consoles. after all they are purely emulating what they are on pc.


I believe in the PC - The world is going online. Laptops and tablets will take over. I think TVs will be integrated with computers.

if apple indeed tries to make a retina based tv/computer hybrid that interactes with everything else it could be very interesting.

 

[Thraktor]

You aren't going to sub 1ms lag regardless of what they do. You get 1ms pinging your own router or modem. You're doing good if you're able to to get 10ms or less ping to your own isp in your town. They can't change the laws of physics. Keep in mind that I'm on a fiber network that's less than 3 years old and offers 1gb symmetrical connections.
I'm not trying to attack you or anything but just thought I'd chime in. Your main point is completely valid though and I agree.

I was of course exaggerating a little, but I've seen people get 1ms ping on fully fiber networks from either side of a city (which would be relevant if they put a Onlive/Gaikai server in said city). The issue is that the majority of network back-ends aren't geared towards minimizing latency, they're geared towards maximizing bandwidth, because high bandwidth sells and low latency doesn't.

 

[funkystudent]

Consoles are going to change big time next gen.


Will be interesting to see how games sales are effected when the consoles are built from the ground up to be stream boxes and potential cable box replacements and games are just another feature and not the focus.

 

[Foffy]

Consoles are going to change big time next gen.


Will be interesting to see how games sales are effected when the consoles are built from the ground up to be stream boxes and potential cable box replacements and games are just another feature and not the focus.

I'm quite sure a lot of us will be talking less about games here, then.

 

[Vermillion]

Unless you can miraculously kill input lag, I don't think we're going to see streaming as it is now take off and displace everything else. There's always the possibilities consoles as we know them will die, but I imagine that'll more likely happen when we finally reach a point of diminishing returns where a cheap SoC performs so well that you'd need to spend A LOT more to get a notable boost, a boost most people wouldn't even notice. Likely at that point it'd also be cheap to put a large amount of flash memory in, and so we'd just run games on this hardware, whether it's retail copies or digital downloads.

Well, there's also handheld games. Despite how neglected that has been in the US it's undeniable portability's a big deal all over the world, whether it's the DS or the iPhone. And streaming games would MURDER wireless bandwidth so, yeah, no way is streaming taking off there without some amazing leaps forward, and even then I doubt you can fully get rid of dead zones.

You should try OnLive. Works brilliantly, even today. And they'll definitely support you. I couldn't get further on Darksiders on my phone because there was no R3 button. One was added within the week.

 

[Rollo Lawson]

A lot of you are strangely conservative for gaming/tech buffs. If an industry dude is saying the writing is on the wall, there's probably some truth to it. Let's not pretend it's the first time we've heard this line of reasoning.

 

[dream]

A lot of you are strangely conservative for gaming/tech buffs. If an industry dude is saying the writing is on the wall, there's probably some truth to it. Let's not pretend it's the first time we've heard this line of reasoning.

Well, nobody wants to hear that their primary hobby is coming to an end.

 

[SLEEPS7ALK3R]

After this years E3, who would shed a tear if traditional consoles just die?

I have to agree with this man. Not one bit excited for the future of console gaming with the current state of affairs (i.e. nickle-and-dime-DLC, lackluster SP campaigns, anti-used countermeasures, pushing services, casual focus, etc.)

 

[Rollo Lawson]

Well, nobody wants to hear that their primary hobby is coming to an end.

It's not the hobby though. It's the format. 10 years from now gaming will have probably zero resemblance to what we have now. That is a long freaking time, esp in technology years

 

[Foffy]

A lot of you are strangely conservative for gaming/tech buffs. If an industry dude is saying the writing is on the wall, there's probably some truth to it. Let's not pretend it's the first time we've heard this line of reasoning.

If you've followed any other industry dudes, opinions are all over the place. Just because one guy says something doesn't mean it's the way it's all going. If that was it, handhelds would have been dead about a year ago (referring to some industry dudes' opinions, not David's).

 

[Emitan]

A lot of you are strangely conservative for gaming/tech buffs. If an industry dude is saying the writing is on the wall, there's probably some truth to it. Let's not pretend it's the first time we've heard this line of reasoning.

because i dont want to stream games i want to own them

 

[Foffy]

because i dont want to stream games i want to own them

Where'd your moe avatars go?! You're almost like a different poster now.

 

[Endo Punk]

because i dont want to stream games i want to own them

You will rent your games and you will not play without connection and like it!

 

[Rollo Lawson]

If you've followed any other industry dudes, opinions are all over the place. Just because one guy says something doesn't mean it's the way it's all going. If that was it, handhelds would have been dead about a year ago (referring to some industry dudes' opinions, not David's).

You are right, and I happen to believe Jaffe in this case.

because i dont want to stream games i want to own them

Guess what? Owning a disc does not mean you own a game. It means you are licensed to use the game as outlined in the license agreement, just like if you were...say...streaming it. That's a different debate though.

 

[Vigilant Walrus]

Well, nobody wants to hear that their primary hobby is coming to an end.

gaming won't end.



the Wii audience was something else. and Wii buyers are not all of the mainstream. other mainstream groups include COD, Madden, Fifa, Singstar and so on. There is a big facebook gaming group now. A massive group from china, and india and brazil and russia. combined these groups engulf what you have in north america. but thats not the impression you get from the current expousure.

free 2 play pc gaming is going to get REALLY big. more high budget games are going to compete for popularity and adds and they will be viral and transcend with tv shows, marketing campaigns and movies. same thing with mobile gaming and social networking gaming.


the problem for wii / ds / psp vita is the cost. Iphone games are cheap and even though they overall have inferior quality, this mainstream group will buy a more shitty version of some well known franchise.
but I wont cry over that.


Because I think a lot of stuff we are seeing today are worth crying over. even our highly praised e3 high fidelity graphic games that hardcore gamers go balistic over have transformed into something like 3d person storytelling gaming/movie watching hybrid combinational mediums, funneled by QTE and in-game cinematics to break up the gameplay every few minutes. sometimes even 30 seconds. you saw it in so many games at this years e3.


many iphone games are not competing for that. they are 100% games and no cinematics. but that too might change.