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NFL Training Camp/Preseason Thread 2012 - A Farewell to snes :(

T

Talon

Member
Oh dear God. I looked up a video of that Playstation SSB rip-off not sure what to expect, and it couldn't look more like the same goddamn game. :jnc
 
S

squicken

Member
darkside31337 said:
Who would spend time writing about last place teams?
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There's no new information on SF at this point. That sweep call was awesome and Harbaugh is an amazing coach. But it's been written to about to death. So has their injury and turnover luck. Lots of teams out there. Sometimes a good coaching job is done when there's awful personnel. Sometimes good personnel is wasted with bad scheme. There's always things to learn
 
B

bionic77

Member
eznark said:
I drink constantly. Yet another thing that makes me immeasurably better than you.
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Better at what?

yankeehater said:
That was a good read. I said last year that I thought Wallace was their best player and I really think they will miss him if he holds out.
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Wow you are wrong about everything. First Kolb now this?

Ben is the Steelers best player on offense. The only player who came close to his value on the team is Harrison in 2008 when he was a fucking beast.

Wallace is not even the best receiver on the team, that is Brown. Wallace is just a speedster, arguably the best in the league, but I value Brown more than him. Brown seems like an improved version of Holmes, he can stretch the field but more importantly he is a great route runner who can make the tough catches over the middle to keep the chains moving. I hope we keep both because even if he (Wallace) is the 2nd best receiver on the team, it would be a huge loss to lose him. Just having him out there requires defenses to focus on him. And if our line improves then it would give Ben more time to look for him downfield, where most backs don't have the speed to stay with him.
 
D

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
Talon- said:
Oh dear God. I looked up a video of that Playstation SSB rip-off not sure what to expect, and it couldn't look more like the same goddamn game. :jnc
Click to expand...

I think its hilarious how nobody claims every 2D fighter is a ripoff of Street Fighter, every FPS is a ripoff of some other FPS, every sports game is a ripoff of every other sports game in the same genre etc.

I don't really care for SSB at all and thus don't have much interest in PSABR but it's hilarious seeing people flip the fuck out at the mere existence of another mascot fighter, one that looks like it'll have decent netcode and one that supports fightsticks, so it's already got several legs up on SSB.
 
H

harSon

Banned
Eh, Brown is probably the more complete receiver but Wallace is the better receiver and more integral to our team's success through the air IMO. I've noticed that many Steeler fans have tried to convince themselves otherwise as the possibility arises that Wallace won't be a Steeler in the long term.
 
T

Talon

Member
jakncoke said:
It wont reach the top 10 in its release month and everybody in npd thread will go wow bomba i cant believe it
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Sadly true.

Seems like gaming side has skewed away from being Sony fanboys to a more balanced setting now. Although the occasional Nintendo/Sony fanboys still pop up and spout off nonsense.
 
B

bionic77

Member
eznark said:
All things except ignoring rape.
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I dispute your allegation and challenge you to a game of basketball. If you refuse you will be demoted to a Bears fan.

If you get a doctor's note saying you can't play basketball then as an alternate test of manhood we can play a game of Tetris Attack on my SNES.
 
B

bionic77

Member
harSon said:
Eh, Brown is probably the more complete receiver but Wallace is the better receiver and more integral to our team's success through the air IMO. I've noticed that many Steeler fans have tried to convince themselves otherwise as the possibility arises that Wallace won't be a Steeler in the long term.
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I said this last year before it looked like Wallace was going to go all prima donna on us.

It is easier to shut down Wallace than Brown.

But honestly for a great offense we need both. And it sucks because we finally invested in the offensive line and now this happens.
 
C

chuckddd

Fear of a GAF Planet
harSon said:
Eh, Brown is probably the more complete receiver but Wallace is the better receiver and more integral to our team's success through the air IMO. I've noticed that many Steeler fans have tried to convince themselves otherwise as the possibility arises that Wallace won't be a Steeler in the long term.
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Wallace was more important with Arians' offense, no question. Brown is the better all around player, though. With Haley, I'm hoping that the Steelers get more creative on offense.
 
H

harSon

Banned
I haven't really been keeping up with the Steelers' off-season since I'm knee deep into Pirates' fandom weeks into the post all star break schedule for the first time.... ever. Are these reports about DeCastro struggling overstated? I was really hoping he'd have a Pouncey like impact to our line in his rookie season... we're really going to need it.
 
H

harSon

Banned
bionic77 said:
I said this last year before it looked like Wallace was going to go all prima donna on us.

It is easier to shut down Wallace than Brown.

But honestly for a great offense we need both. And it sucks because we finally invested in the offensive line and now this happens.
Click to expand...

Obviously it's going to be hard to shut down Brown when there's someone over the top drawing double coverage. We've yet to see Brown create his own space without Wallace demanding the defense's attention.
 
Y

yankeehater

Member
jakncoke said:
It wont reach the top 10 in its release month and everybody in npd thread will go wow bomba i cant believe it
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Isnt it coming out in the holiday months? Games sell 600k in November and dont break into the NPD top 10. No way in hell is a new ip that is also a console exclusive in a super niche genre going to.
 
X

XiaNaphryz

LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
Regrading the whole SF turnover discussion, here's a bit that wasn't linked to yet here I believe with Football Outsider's Danny Tuccitto:

NN: One big discussion point for the team has been the incredible turnover differential. On the defensive side of the ball, how sustainable is that differential?

Well, there are a couple of ways to look at this: one big picture, one arthouse film. In terms of the big picture, I'll direct you to this excellent Yahoo! piece by Joe Fortenbaugh of National Football Post. Basically, any way you slice the 49ers' overall giveaway/takeaway ratio last season, historical precedent predicts a huge fall this season. The exact numbers depend on how you characterize "49ers-like" teams, but we're talking somewhere between a 15-to-20-turnover swing in the opposite direction this year.

Now, when it comes to turnovers, FO likes to look at the trees in addition to the forest. We approach it from a play-by-play angle, not just a season-total angle. We care about what happened on a play with a potential turnover, not just the actual turnovers that count in turnover differential. In other words, did Alex Smith's pass get flat-out dropped by a defender? Did Michael Crabtree volleyball set the pass to a defender who caught it? Was an interception (either way) just a desperation heave at the end of a half? Did a Jeremy Maclin fumble bounce happily into the awaiting arms of Dashon Goldson to seal an increasingly unlikely victory? Basically, what we're saying is that throwing an accurate pass is a skill, forcing a fumble is a skill. Tip drills, Hail Marys, and random bounces off of the turf are not skills.

From this perspective, 2012 isn't as pessimistic looking. For Smith, we have a stat called Adjusted Interceptions, which removes Hail Marys, late-game, fourth-down desperation heaves, and receiver tip drills from the interception total, but adds in potential interceptions dropped by defenders (which we keep track as part of our game charting project). Last season, Smith's actual interception rate (i.e., interceptions divided by attempts) was 1.1%, which was the third-best in league history among quarterbacks who threw over 400 passes. History just screams that he's due for a regression to the league average (2.9%) this year. However, his adjusted interception rate was 1.3%, second-best in the NFL behind Aaron Rodgers (0.8%), which means his inevitable regression won't be because he was getting really lucky; just skillfully throwing accurate passes away from defenders. Compare that with someone like Sam Bradford, who had an actual interception rate of 1.7%, but an adjusted interception rate of 3.4%. Defenders dropped as many interceptions against him as they caught (6).

What's more, although we need a few more years of data before we write this up definitively, it looks like that difference between actual and adjusted interception rate is a good leading indicator for the following year's stats. Guys like Bradford (i.e., actual <<< adjusted) see their actual interception rate explode the following season, whereas guys like Smith (i.e., actual < adjusted) don't suffer as much. Same goes in the opposite direction, which Smith was an example of last year. In 2010, his actual interception rate (2.7%) was slightly higher than his adjusted interception rate (2.5%), and so his actual interception rate decreased slightly in 2011. Like I said, need more data, but it's just one more thing in favor of the idea that Smith probably won't turn into the second coming of Vinny Testaverde this season.

In terms of fumbles, the main thing we look at is fumble recovery rates, which are almost entirely dumb luck. Teams should recover 50% of fumbles, so a real outlying recovery rate means they were unusually lucky or unusually unlucky, which should reverse itself the following year. In 2011, San Francisco's offense recovered eight of their 13 fumbles. There's about a 30% chance of that happening randomly, which isn't enough to say they were unusually lucky. Any poker player will tell you a 30% chance might as well be 50/50. On defense, they recovered 13 of their opponents' 27 fumbles, which is almost exactly 50/50, so no luck there either.

The only part of the equation we don't really have a handle on is the predictability of defensive interceptions, but we're working on it. Another kind of preliminary quirk we've found, but requires a much deeper look than just noticing patterns anecdotally, is that defensive backs with a lot of passes defensed, but not a lot of interceptions, tend to have more interceptions the following year, and vice versa. Carlos Rogers was a great example of this last year. As I mentioned in the book, he had only four interceptions from 2008 to 2010, but led the league with 24 passes defensed (on 97 targets) in 2008, and averaged 16 per season (on 72 targets) over the three-year period (seventh-most among corners).
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J

jakncoke

Banned
yankeehater said:
Isnt it coming out in the holiday months? Games sell 600k in November and dont break into the NPD top 10. No way in hell is a new ip that is also a console exclusive in a super niche genre going to.
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I have no idea and lolz if Sony puts it in a holiday mayhem month. That game needs released when nothing is around
 
C

chuckddd

Fear of a GAF Planet
harSon said:
I haven't really been keeping up with the Steelers' off-season since I'm knee deep into Pirates' fandom weeks into the post all star break schedule for the first time.... ever. Are these reports about DeCastro struggling overstated? I was really hoping he'd have a Pouncey like impact to our line in his rookie season... we're really going to need it.
Click to expand...

We'll all have a better idea Thursday.
 
B

bionic77

Member
harSon said:
I haven't really been keeping up with the Steelers' off-season since I'm knee deep into Pirates' fandom weeks into the post all star break schedule for the first time.... ever. Are these reports about DeCastro struggling overstated? I was really hoping he'd have a Pouncey like impact to our line in his rookie season... we're really going to need it.
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I never take impressions from camp seriously. You will know how good he is by his 2nd game (regular not preseason). The mistakes will get better, but if you can't make an impression by game 2 chances are you are not very good to begin with.


harSon said:
Obviously it's going to be hard to shut down Brown when there's someone over the top drawing double coverage. We've yet to see Brown create his own space without Wallace demanding the defense's attention.
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I have to disagree with this. We have seen Brown create his own space time and time again. He more than Wallace is who Ben looks to on 3rd and forever. Wallace is Ben's first option because he is always looking for the long ball, but for most of the big throws when the game is on the line he seems to go to Brown first.

We may have the answer as to how well Brown can play without Wallace sooner than we like. I think Mike is making a big mistake by holding out (when has that ever worked out for any player?), but I am slightly biased and want him on the field as well.
 
E

eznark

Banned
bionic77 said:
I dispute your allegation and challenge you to a game of basketball. If you refuse you will be demoted to a Bears fan.

If you get a doctor's note saying you can't play basketball then as an alternate test of manhood we can play a game of Tetris Attack on my SNES.
Click to expand...

So racist
 
C

chuckddd

Fear of a GAF Planet
OLYMPIC-HEADKICK.gif
 
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