metalslimer
Member
Nintendo can't make 10 million consoles that fast.
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Nintendo 1H 2012 results - $367M operating loss, 5.06M 3DS, 5.5M Wii U forecast
- Thread starter Kazerei
- Start date
Nintendo can't make 10 million consoles that fast.
Well, the 3DS' primary focus and appeal are still by and large to play games. The other stuff - Swapnote, Nintendo Video, Netflix, etc. - don't take away from that at all, and only add to its value. I'm not convinced a device focused entirely on gaming would fare much better than the 3DS currently is.
They were obviously overzealous with it initially, but the current pricing of the 3DS is pretty down to earth, I think.
I remember Nintendo issuing a statement about how these, in fact, weren't widespread issues, so I'm not sure this has any considerable bearing on how the 3DS is doing right now.
They could have included a bigger battery, sure, but would that not have made the system even bigger, presenting portability issues of its own?
A hike in prices is to be expected, is it not? We can't reasonably expect bigger budgeted games to be sold at the same prices we saw with the DS. They could, of course, adapt game budgets to fit a $20-$30 model you go on to mention. But on a personal/selfish side, I don't know how I feel about that; would awesome games such as Kid Icarus: Uprising, Fire Emblem: Awakening, and so on have been possible (or the same) under much tighter budgets?
If its first price drop is any indication, that's only going to spur a temporary spike in sales. It would also need more hardware-pushing software to enact any sort of sustainability. The problem here is that it's already gotten quite a few of them. What have they got left, Pokemon and Animal Crossing?
Yeah, it would sell more. At the cost of severe hemorrhaging. Any range below what's currently in place, at this point, would probably cause them to lose money (or not make any at all), if I'm not mistaken.
It's already seeing its "reasons to live", isn't it? Unless the likes of Mario Kart 7, 3D Land, NSMB2, etc. aren't it.
Consolidating their two big revenue streams is just a bad, bad idea.
Aside from Retro, what other western studios do they possess? I can't really see any of their Japanese ones specifically catering to western sensibilities.
This is... rather irrational. I'm just going to leave it at that.
Western third-party support on handhelds has, historically, been horrid. That's not going to change any time soon, especially now that they're so invested in smartphones and tablets. And the Japanese output on the system, for the most part, serves a niche; would more localisations help the 3DS situation in an appreciable manner?
This, on the other hand, I can agree with. There's no reason that these titles shouldn't be available in the US and Europe this holiday, and if the 3DS underperforms during that period, they'll have deserved it.
tkscz
Member
Hmm... Point well taken. Well at least I can see the demand for it, and maybe 6 million by march.
Honestly, having huge cash reserves and just sitting on them - using them as a safety blanket - is generally not a smart strategy.
The fact that Nintendo did nothing during the "boom years" with these reserves reeks of arrogance/complacency. They couldn't find a single project with a positive ROI to invest in back then? They could have expanded their internal studios or created new ones to ensure that first party droughts are a thing of the past and that they were prepared for HD development.
They should have identified risks their business faced going forward (rise of social/mobile gaming, potential loss of Wii momentum) and tried to prepare accordingly. Now their lack of foresight has caused them to begin to use their safety blanket.
The fact that Nintendo did nothing during the "boom years" with these reserves reeks of arrogance/complacency. They couldn't find a single project with a positive ROI to invest in back then? They could have expanded their internal studios or created new ones to ensure that first party droughts are a thing of the past and that they were prepared for HD development.
They should have identified risks their business faced going forward (rise of social/mobile gaming, potential loss of Wii momentum) and tried to prepare accordingly. Now their lack of foresight has caused them to begin to use their safety blanket.
ScreenSplitter
Member
So, HD Zelda in 7 years?
I never agreed with how they handled those boom years, but I certainly wouldn't call it arrogant. Just seemed in line with their extreme conservatism. And didn't they give some pretty major dividends during this period? Again, you could have argued this was the wrong approach for a company with a singular focus (especially when said industry had a murky future for dedicated devices), but I'm sure it pleased the stockholders if nothing else.
frankie_baby
Member
It's more conservatism than arrogagance/complacency but they have invested, new r&d facilities and buying monolith but short of making moves outside the game business its difficult to see what they could spend the money on
ViewtifulJC
Banned
HD Zelda launch title for Wii-Mii-2
Arrogance/complacency was too strong a word...but it is just so frustrating how true the old "Desperate Nintendo is best Nintendo" saying is.
I just think they failed big time in assessing risks facing their business and consequently have been caught flat footed and unprepared, although hindsight is 20/20 I guess.
Hopefully desperate Nintendo shows up soon.
I just think they failed big time in assessing risks facing their business and consequently have been caught flat footed and unprepared, although hindsight is 20/20 I guess.
Hopefully desperate Nintendo shows up soon.
ScreenSplitter
Member
One thing they need to do; Kill off the DSiWare updates! For every virtual console/3DSWare title we can get, we're getting overpriced garbage that I swear to god nobody can be buying.
What does this even mean? Do you know what this even means?
Not sure what you mean tbh
edit - Was clarifying my earlier post which might have been confusing
AranhaHunter
Banned
Square Enix at $1,680,778,960
But I agree with what you're saying. People often think that a company can just buy another based on market cap alone. Doesn't really mean one can come and swoop Nintendo for 18 billion, Sony for 12 billion, SS for 5 billion, Capcom for 1.2 billion, or Square Enix for $1.7 billion. Ignoring everything else, and assuming the majority of stock is public, then one could swoop them for those prices, but more likely a higher price as the stock price would increase. However, I believe the case with most of these companies is that they own the majority of shares for their company, thus protecting themselves from a hostile takeover. One exception is SE though, I know they are mostly owned by JP banks and Fukushima.
Sony could get >$5 billion (probably more) from each of their entertainment entities if they chose to sell SPE, their 50% share of Sony/ATV, SME, or SCE.
The same is true for Nintendo and others as well. The "Mario" and "Pokemon" (though I don't know if they 100% own Pokemon) brands are probably worth a shitload of money by themselves. Smaller franchises such as Metroid and Zelda are probably worth a ton as well. If Nintendo chose to sell the rights to one of those franchises, they could liquidize some assets real quick as well.
ShockingAlberto
Member
Aren't they explicitly expanding their studios and R&D?
radioheadrule83
Banned
Max chart on Yahoo Finance:
The plus side is, I don't think it's likely to look much worse than it does right now unless the Wii U complete implodes.
Am I reading this right? Are share prices below what they were with the launch of the Gamecube?
I wish I had a shitload of money to invest. I'd probably wait a little to feel a bit more confident in their strategy, but I'd bet on them making bank even during a poor console cycle. I think they've done the right thing staying affordable, and moves like MiiVerse and TVii have lots of potential.
Yea, which is great to hear. But maybe this is something that should/could have been done earlier to help avoid this situation.
Yes, there's a fair amount of investor dissatisfaction at this point.
That's why I made my earlier comment about how they should like predict lower on 3DS.
Even if they get hit on the first report for predicting low, it at least helps if they don't have to lower every report afterwards.
I mean, nothing replaces great success, but there are things you can do to make yourself look a bit better (or at least like you have a stronger grasp on how your products are likely to perform).
Pricing is killing Nintendo in my house. My kid won't save $40 for a 3DS game because he's been burned not once, but twice (I let him make his own mistakes) at that price point and it's completely soured him on it. Couple that with the fact that he just picked up the kindle version of Minecraft for less than $20 dollars and Nintendo has very little hope of reaching him again.
I'm not saying that's how it is for everybody, but Nintendo has to figure out a way to get their software prices down or I see my son's 3DS getting sold on craigslist. He's also entirely uninterested in Paper Mario. Wanna take a guess at how many 3DS games are on his christmas list?
I'm not saying that's how it is for everybody, but Nintendo has to figure out a way to get their software prices down or I see my son's 3DS getting sold on craigslist. He's also entirely uninterested in Paper Mario. Wanna take a guess at how many 3DS games are on his christmas list?
A Twisty Fluken
Member
These are pink sheets, which are not quite the same thing as shares.
ScreenSplitter
Member
Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion 2, and Fire Emblem?!
Sorry GAF, I'm just really bitter on this one. I agree with you completely that 3DS games are very, very overpriced for some of the shit they churn out. Nintendo 1st party and decent 3rd party titles I have no problem paying full price for, but $40 for Cave Story 3D/Pilotwings/Rayman Origins?! Jog in an onwards direction.
frankie_baby
Member
Oh dear what shite did you let him buy?
AranhaHunter
Banned
Sony's price in 2000 was $120 a share for comparison.
Making bank also != spike in stock, it's all about meeting and beating the market expectation. A recent example is GOOG banked, net profit of $3 billion last quarter IIRC, but their share prices dropped like a rock due to not meeting expectations.
All right, I got a 5 year chart, but Bloomberg doesn't let me go back to the GameCube era:
Edit:
Here's a one decade chart.
radioheadrule83
Banned
I have *always* felt that they could make more money with a more intelligent pricing structure. The same is true of any publisher. They NEED cleverly tiered pricing on handhelds even more than they need it on consoles.
In some ways I think Iwata's development background has really helped Nintendo in recent years, but I also think it imbues him with an inflated value of some of the products -- I don't want them to undersell games for $1 and not make their money back -- because they invest their profits in other games, but I don't want them to pitch me something like Steel Diver at full price either! They need to find the balance
A Twisty Fluken
Member
To be clear I am not arguing the basic point, just adding clarity.
He should swap games with friends that have a 3DS, that's still a big argument over digital gaming.
Mr. B Natural
Member
My little cousins own and still use their DS's but they appear to have more fun and spend more time toying with the camera software than the games Nintendo has been making lately. And I don't blame them. It makes them laugh and smile and be creative and actually respond to the stimulus.
But they're completely enamored with gaming crap and own more games, peripherals and consoles than than they can keep up with, thanks to their parents not understanding the concept of "no." It wont be long until they own an Ipad and then, well, we'll see where their ADHD will guide them. If Apple offers an aplethora of cheap, creative and effective sandbox toys then I can see them veering in that direction. And my aunt and uncle wouldn't complain about the immense change in game pricing either.
frankie_baby
Member
Million and a half tops
Bungalow Bob
Banned
3DS + DS software revenue: $180 million/month ($1.1 billion from April 1 to September 30)
iOS 3rd party software revenue: $490 million/month ($2.2 billion from June 11 to October 24)
I assumed that the average price of a 3DS game was $35 and that the average price of a DS game was $25. The App Store numbers are based on the numbers Apple quoted in their June and October conferences.
This includes non game software. I'd guess that on the App Store this makes up about 35% of total sales (the majority of the top grossing apps are games).
This doesn't include Nintendo's digital sales, which perhaps would add an additional 5%.
Note that the App Store numbers don't include 1st party software, but that's all non-gaming software.
Publishers on the App Store get 70% of total revenue from their games, for (3)DS I think it's about 50%.
So based on the above assumptions:
iOS video game revenue: $320 million/month
iOS video game revenue for publishers: $220 million/month
3DS + DS software revenue (including digital): $190 million/month
3DS + DS 3rd party software revenue (including digital): $66 million/month
3DS + DS 3rd party software revenue for publishers (including digital): $33 million/month
I'm a junior, so can someone else make the thread? It would be even better if someone makes a graph of the rise in App Store revenue and a decline in (3)DS revenue over the same period. I think iOS games started to generate more revenue than (3)DS games less than a year ago. PSP/Vita software revenue would also be great. And please correct any of my assumptions that are wrong.
iOS 3rd party software revenue: $490 million/month ($2.2 billion from June 11 to October 24)
I assumed that the average price of a 3DS game was $35 and that the average price of a DS game was $25. The App Store numbers are based on the numbers Apple quoted in their June and October conferences.
This includes non game software. I'd guess that on the App Store this makes up about 35% of total sales (the majority of the top grossing apps are games).
This doesn't include Nintendo's digital sales, which perhaps would add an additional 5%.
Note that the App Store numbers don't include 1st party software, but that's all non-gaming software.
Publishers on the App Store get 70% of total revenue from their games, for (3)DS I think it's about 50%.
So based on the above assumptions:
iOS video game revenue: $320 million/month
iOS video game revenue for publishers: $220 million/month
3DS + DS software revenue (including digital): $190 million/month
3DS + DS 3rd party software revenue (including digital): $66 million/month
3DS + DS 3rd party software revenue for publishers (including digital): $33 million/month
I'm a junior, so can someone else make the thread? It would be even better if someone makes a graph of the rise in App Store revenue and a decline in (3)DS revenue over the same period. I think iOS games started to generate more revenue than (3)DS games less than a year ago. PSP/Vita software revenue would also be great. And please correct any of my assumptions that are wrong.
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
If they can hit 5.5 million Wii U's, it'll be the second best launch in history. But I'm sure we'll argue about how it's undersupplied. Meanwhile, Sony will launch at $499 to terrible demand and only ship 3 million. Not a peep. And yes, I'm mad.
Is that 2.2 billion for games or all software? Because your king may not be fully dressed.
tkscz
Member
Umm.... why? A thread like this would only be flame and troll bait, causing fights and bans. Plus, the title of your post, if it were the title of the thread, then admins help the OP things would get awful.
AranhaHunter
Banned
That's a shitload of assumptions and that makes your numbers completely irrelevant. No one in their right mind would make a thread with those numbers. No offense.
If Sony is smart they will start doing what MS is doing and subsidize their console if you sign up for a couple of years of PS+.
frankie_baby
Member
To many of the figures you use are pulled out of your ass, that would be one horrible thread
grimshawish
Banned
Is that 50% true? I feel doubtful towards it but maybe am wrong.
Anyway Nintendo is surely the biggest earner, so quite frankly cutting 50% out is a bit daft.
Meanwhile 'number of releases' is kind of an important number as is the number of publishers behind those releases.
Unless am missing the point of your comparison?
Generally their two very different markets. Better is comparing 3DS to DS software revenues.
eshop figures would be nice but we just don't have them - maybe more tomorrow though, you never know.
EDIT: Also you have no idea where the bulk of iOS revenue comes from, for all we know 100's of smaller software apps could be making up that figure significantly. Or even less than you assume. Bit of research first and by the time you leave Junior-ship you'll be ready kid
Anyway Nintendo is surely the biggest earner, so quite frankly cutting 50% out is a bit daft.
Meanwhile 'number of releases' is kind of an important number as is the number of publishers behind those releases.
Unless am missing the point of your comparison?
Generally their two very different markets. Better is comparing 3DS to DS software revenues.
eshop figures would be nice but we just don't have them - maybe more tomorrow though, you never know.
EDIT: Also you have no idea where the bulk of iOS revenue comes from, for all we know 100's of smaller software apps could be making up that figure significantly. Or even less than you assume. Bit of research first and by the time you leave Junior-ship you'll be ready kid
tkscz
Member
And it begins.
frankie_baby
Member
Is that 50% true? I feel doubtful towards it but maybe am wrong.
Anyway Nintendo is surely the biggest earner, so quite frankly cutting 50% out is a bit daft.
Meanwhile 'number of releases' is kind of an important number as is the number of publishers behind those releases.
Unless am missing the point of your comparison?
Generally their two very different markets. Better is comparing 3DS to DS software revenues.
eshop figures would be nice but we just don't have them - maybe more tomorrow though, you never know.
EDIT: Also you have no idea where the bulk of iOS revenue comes from, for all we know 100's of smaller software apps could be making up that figure significantly. Or even less than you assume. Bit of research first and by the time you leave Junior-ship you'll be ready kid
50% is probably about right for 3rd party retail releases
There are so many western developers going indie. Nintendo should be courting them and looking for great fits for eshop. They are in financial trouble and yet they turn down stuff like Binding of Isaac? Not only would they make bank and get press, they'd get more developer interest.
Actually, he was looking forward to Luigi's Mansion 2 until it got delayed.
Haha. The first was Marvel Super Squad something or other. He wasn't that disappointed in that one because he picked it up as an impulse buy (couldn't find anything he actually wanted), it was Hero's of Ruin that did him in for good though. He really loved Torchlight and was always salty that he couldn't get it on his DS, so when the demo for Hero's of Ruin came up he was on it. Needless to say, the end product was disappointing to him. He also couldn't understand why Torchlight was so much cheaper and so much better. It was... difficult to explain.
There are definitely some software areas that Nintendo needs to wake up to. Maybe tiered pricing would help in my house, I dunno. He's not really seeing any games he's actually interested in; He still checks too. I see the conundrum clearly. He is neck deep into Minecraft and it was cheap. Anything he's slightly interested in (Kingdom Hearts) will, "Take forever" to save for.
Haha. Yeah, he had swapped games with the one other kid that he knows who owns a 3DS. Seriously. I sent my 3DS with him to school long ago hoping to snag some easy streetpasses (damn you puzzle gallery!) and was shocked when week after week he'd come home with the same three streetpassed Mii's.
Honestly, that might even be a little too high.
tkscz
Member
Not sure if you been keeping up with the WiiU's eshop but Nintendo has pretty much been getting as many indie devs as possible thus far.
While price is definitely an issue, it's hard to think of one that would bring back consumers that are now used to $0.99 pricing while keeping budgets high enough for the games to retain the same quality (of course, stuff like Steel Diver should be $10 or less).
$30? Not enough of a difference from $40.
$20? The game's quality will start to suffer.
Maybe if they went full digital, but then their relationship with brick and mortar stores would also deteriorate.
frankie_baby
Member
Binding of Isaac had less chance of getting approved for release than Custer's revenge would have done, at least they had a long think about it instead of dismissing it out of hand though
What's the point of a post like this? In what way does it contribute to the discussion?
How should we know if your assumptions are wrong? They are just guesses.
I did a thread a while ago asking what the comparative revenue numbers were between Nintendo's handheld software sales and those of iOS. The indication was that Nintendo's numbers dwarfed iOS but no one could really separate software from hardware. Plus, it was on an individual game-to-game basis.