grimshawish
Banned
I would love to see this but it sounds insane. At least at a $50 loss.
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Nintendo posts $160M net income, cuts 3DS/Wii U/NDS/Wii forecasts
- Thread starter Parmenides
- Start date
I would love to see this but it sounds insane. At least at a $50 loss.
Psychotext
Member
Your figures are way out of date for both, and I wont even try to explain to you why they're utterly meaningless (especially for Microsoft).
zomgbbqftw
Banned
$600m profit actually.
There is nothing in PS4 from the leaked specs that points to expensive parts. It is a true bang for buck console.
You are really confused.
I'm surprised the 3DS is already at 30 million.
Wii U numbers are solid. Once some great games hit (an they will), Wii U will be selling really well. I also predict that we'll be seeing a strong game support from japanese developers.
Also, I believe some third party developers have already made their bets on Wii U and that those games will be shown at this years E3.
Wii U numbers are solid. Once some great games hit (an they will), Wii U will be selling really well. I also predict that we'll be seeing a strong game support from japanese developers.
Also, I believe some third party developers have already made their bets on Wii U and that those games will be shown at this years E3.
bigtroyjon
Member
No they didn't, they posted a $596 million profit.
KillerMan91
Member
Not to mention that the division includes Windows phone that surely is making rather big losses at the moment. Xbox alone easily profited over billion last year.
grimshawish
Banned
Just to point out to really cheap 'but in 1877 they lost xyz' - it doesn't matter. A loss is a loss and its done. Its not an investment; its a loss.
A company just needs to move towards profit. Frankly Xbox was MS being silly and not understanding what they were actually doing (Rare is the big highlight of this lack of understanding) but their in the market now and have turned around; all that matters is their next profit.
Though I do feel that next profit isn't as big as some at MS want. Which is why I feel their about to make some big mistakes with Durango but we'll wait and see.
A company just needs to move towards profit. Frankly Xbox was MS being silly and not understanding what they were actually doing (Rare is the big highlight of this lack of understanding) but their in the market now and have turned around; all that matters is their next profit.
Though I do feel that next profit isn't as big as some at MS want. Which is why I feel their about to make some big mistakes with Durango but we'll wait and see.
Schnozberry
Member
You're right, I was looking at the wrong quarter for Microsoft. Loss for the year on the Entertainment Division is expected based on their forecasts though.
I'm all for calling out nintendo... but when people say, and it's gonna get worse when the next twins arrive... prfff thats just wishing doom just like for the past what, 15 years? Whe don't even know the prices yet. The rumored specs sound like $450 to me, I wonder if market will accept that.
Steve Youngblood
Member
They just revised their sales forecast down 27%. How is that "solid"?
It is not impossible to know what their current projections are. You can read them in the first post of this thread. And it's not impossible to know whether stockholders are happy with them. That information is right here:
You're a glass half full kind of guy, huh? Maybe even a "dude, look at all that delicious water" kind of guy?
Things do not work like that. It's meaningless to sum all the profits and losses over the years. This is not domestic economy ;D
What truly matters is your current cash flow (basically if you have the money to keep your business going), how you're performing right now (making money or not, right now) and your chances of growth for the future.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
That's because of Windows Phone incentives and advertising.
'However, since 2007 it has made $1 billion'
The EDD made $1.3b profit in FY11 alone.
Steve Youngblood
Member
It may be wishful thinking on the part of some to suggest that either or both the PS4/720 are just going to knock their launches out of the park. I'll grant you that. However, it certainly isn't unreasonable to think that more competition certainly doesn't bode well for a console that is currently struggling a bit out of the gate. So, in that sense, suggesting that things are going to get worse when more new consoles launch certainly isn't absurd, even if those consoles' success remains to be seen.
Schnozberry
Member
If Nintendo did what Microsoft and Sony did from 2003-2007, they would no longer exist. It does matter, it's just Sony and Microsoft have much larger market caps and can use their other division to soak up the money they were spending to gain market share. Microsoft can still do that, Sony cannot. Sony is losing money as a company, and recently had to sell their US HQ in order to remain solvent.
bigtroyjon
Member
They don't give forecasts for the the division, stop making shit up.
So they got their sales forcast wrong? Big deal! Selling 3 million units in just 2 month is still pretty solid in my book.
walking fiend
Member
Surely;
But what's so different this time, that the same strategy they applied last gen, will not end up with the same result?
People keep forgetting that neither 360 nor PS3 sales didn't take off, or started to make profit, after 4-5 years since their launch.
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Overall, Nintendo can sustain their trend for like another two generations, that is even if 3DS and Wii U cause them some lose; Sony needs another PS3 to go way into the red, and Microsoft is still in the red over the entire Xbox brand life [while Nintendo has been making profit since like ever, excluding the recent quarters]
I think you meant to post the actual Nintendo Co. Ltd. stock chart, which is 7974 listed on the Nikkei 225, not some ADR.It is not impossible to know what their current projections are. You can read them in the first post of this thread. And it's not impossible to know whether stockholders are happy with them. That information is right here:
Stockholders aren't happy, but the price has been stable over the last 6 months.
Fair enough on the first point, but how a stock does, hour by hour, (or even month by month), says only a small part about the company's viability. Still, if I had to guess, I think Nintendo (like a lot of game companies), would be better off if they were a privately, rather than publicly traded company. Public trading is fine if you're large enough to ignore these sorts of dips, but smaller public stock-based companies have a much harder time dealing with them.It is not impossible to know what their current projections are. You can read them in the first post of this thread. And it's not impossible to know whether stockholders are happy with them. That information is right here:
It's really understated the delay of Lego City, Pikmin 3, Wii Fit U and Game and Wario.
I think around September the lineup was looking like:
Nov : Mario + Nintendoland
Dec : Lego City
Jan : Game and Wario
Feb : Wii Fit U
Mar : Pikmin 3
This is what they based their projects off of and this was their strategy going in. It was clear they learned from 3DS and had titles lined up with little worry about 3rd party crowding. I think Iwata probably made the hard decision to push everything back 3 months somewhere around launch. The most recent ND points to possibly more Miiverse integration which is probably a good idea as that is easily a high point they need to exploit or they just needed more polish. But this is the difference between someone who knows business and someone who knows software. Any other company would have released half-assed products to pad the bottom line, you see this constantly at launch and even Nintendo is guilty of it. But I think Iwata has probably learned from disasters like Steel Diver that it's better in the long run to make good games and proliferate good word of mouth then to stick to their original goal just to please investors. Seeding good games can turn profits years from now and good games are definitely the way to beat back competition.
I think around September the lineup was looking like:
Nov : Mario + Nintendoland
Dec : Lego City
Jan : Game and Wario
Feb : Wii Fit U
Mar : Pikmin 3
This is what they based their projects off of and this was their strategy going in. It was clear they learned from 3DS and had titles lined up with little worry about 3rd party crowding. I think Iwata probably made the hard decision to push everything back 3 months somewhere around launch. The most recent ND points to possibly more Miiverse integration which is probably a good idea as that is easily a high point they need to exploit or they just needed more polish. But this is the difference between someone who knows business and someone who knows software. Any other company would have released half-assed products to pad the bottom line, you see this constantly at launch and even Nintendo is guilty of it. But I think Iwata has probably learned from disasters like Steel Diver that it's better in the long run to make good games and proliferate good word of mouth then to stick to their original goal just to please investors. Seeding good games can turn profits years from now and good games are definitely the way to beat back competition.
Steve Youngblood
Member
Would selling 2.5 million units have been solid as well? What about 2? I'm just trying to figure out what arbitrary number registers as solid in your book.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
I'd have to agree. Nintendo's internal R&D launch window commitments haven't been this dire since N64:
Famicom / NES
07.15.83 Donkey Kong (Nintendo)
07.15.83 Donkey Kong Jr. (Nintendo)
07.15.83 Popeye (Nintendo)
08.27.83 Gomoku Narabe Renju (Nintendo)
08.27.83 Mahjong (Nintendo)
09.09.83 Mario Bros. (Nintendo)
Super Famicom / Super NES
11.21.90 F-Zero (Nintendo)
11.21.90 Pilotwings (Nintendo)
11.21.90 Super Mario World (Nintendo)
Nintendo 64
06.23.96 Pilotwings 64 (Nintendo / Paradigm Simulations)
06.23.96 Super Mario 64 (Nintendo)
09.27.96 Wave Race 64 (Nintendo)
Gamecube
09.14.01 Luigi's Mansion (Nintendo)
09.14.01 Wave Race: BlueStorm (Nintendo Software Technology)
10.26.01 Pikmin (Nintendo)
11.21.01 Super Smash Bros. Melee (HAL Laboratory)
12.14.01 Animal Crossing (Nintendo)
Wii
11.19.06 Excite Truck (Nintendo / Monster Games)
11.19.06 The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (Nintendo)
11.19.06 Wii Sports (Nintendo)
12.02.06 Wario Ware: Smooth Moves (Nintendo / Intelligent Systems)
12.02.06 Wii Play (Nintendo)
12.14.06 Pokémon Battle Revolution (Genius Sonority)
02.22.07 Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn (Intelligent Systems)
Wii U
11.18.12 New Super Mario Bros. U (Nintendo)
11.18.12 Nintendo Land (Nintendo)
12.08.12 Nintendo X Joysound: Wii Karaoke U (NdCube / Tose Software)
03.28.13 Game & Wario (Nintendo / Intelligent Systems)
Schnozberry
Member
Huh? Microsoft doesn't give forecasts, investment analysts do. Microsoft actually beat Q3 revenue forecasts, but they are below forecast for the year.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Narpas Sword0
Member
You didn't say anything about viability, you said "it's likely impossible to know what their current projections are and whether or not their current stockholders are happy with them."
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Absolutely right. Nintendo banked on NSMBU too much and it just hasn't taken off like they wanted it to. They needed a Zelda ready to go at launch.
Yeah, very reasonable specifications. The 4GB of GDDR5 might be the most costly out of all of it.
Steve Youngblood
Member
I wonder if they could have gone back to the Wii playbook and delayed Skyward Sword to being a Wii U/Wii game.
bigtroyjon
Member
Microsoft just finished their Q2, not Q3. Gaming has $380 million in deferred revenue coming on the books for next quarter which assures a healthy profit and Nokia expects to start breaking even on the money that they pay and receive from MS for Windows Phone which will dramatically cut the loss for MS.
There is a 0% chance that the EDD division posts a loss this FY unless they shock us all and release the new console by the end of June.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
I think it would have been a good idea.
michaeltraps
Member
I can't say I disagree here. Though the hardware base wouldn't be there just yet for a huge system seller, Nintendo developed games typically have pretty long legs and sell well throughout the lifetime of a system.
I know it was said previously, but they NEED Wind Waker HD and the next 3D Mario or Mario Kart this holiday to really make a mark and take full advantage of a year head start.
DashReindeer
Lead Community Manager, Outpost Games
I think you are looking at this wrong though. Regardless of how solid you think those sales are, the fact that nintendo had to slash their projections so sharply means that neither they nor their shareholders can be happy with those numbers. This is not a good thing, is all I'm saying. It may not mean anything in the long run, only time will tell, but as of right now things aren't going too well for the new console.
Spieler Eins
Member
It's ridiculous. In interviews they seem to understand that potential launch buyers are probably more of a hobby gamer and yet they completely counted on NSMB and fucking karaoke plus fitness. The games from the Direct should have been the first batch of games, the ones they've started with should have been part of the second at minimum, when the install base is bigger and more casuals might grab the console...
grimshawish
Banned
Zelda? No. It wouldn't be ready anyway.
They needed a second game beside NSMBU. Not Nintendo Land.
I do think a well branded NSMBU bundle would have a not insignificant effect on sales though.
Mysterious
Banned
But Zelda just released the year before on Wii.
I my opinion, selling "solid" at launch is when a console sells as much or more than it's (very successfull) predecessor. Wii could have sold more, if more was available, but it wasn't.
I not sure, but I think Wii U's launch numbers are not too far off from other consoles'.
Narpas Sword0
Member
Solid means "within expectations" not "33% reduction in expectations"
And Mario sells better than Zelda
And Mario sells better than Zelda
I think Nintendo is really struggling in the transition to big budget, HD games. During the GCN and Wii years they tried to create an alternate business model, but everyone knew it was only going to last so long.
I also think that Nintendo has been attracted like a fly to a bug zapper to the idea of producing low budget, gimmicky shovelware (Mario Party, Wii Party, Nintendo Land, Game & Wario, etc.) that can sell millions worldwide. NSMBU is kind of a continuation of that; it ain't a high budget game, period.
And at the end of the day, their model is no longer working on the home console front.
I also think that Nintendo has been attracted like a fly to a bug zapper to the idea of producing low budget, gimmicky shovelware (Mario Party, Wii Party, Nintendo Land, Game & Wario, etc.) that can sell millions worldwide. NSMBU is kind of a continuation of that; it ain't a high budget game, period.
And at the end of the day, their model is no longer working on the home console front.
No, I posted the right chart. It's the one that reflects the market's reaction to the latest earnings release, which came after the close of Tokyo. Also, FYI, the Nikkei 225 is an index, not a market. Nintendo is listed as 7974 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, if we're being pedantic.
Oh, I think Nintendo is totally viable. I'm just saying shareholders are pretty clearly unhappy. And I think I agree that nintendo would probably be better off as a private company. If their stock keeps falling maybe that's where they'll wind up, but right now their market cap is $13B, so they are a pretty big nut to swallow.
With February not having any new big Wii U titles until the end of the month, I suppose Nintendo was being realistic with changing its estimated Wii U hardware sales goal. Too bad February and March aren't likely going to be kind to Wii U software sales. There's too many big game releases coming out especially in March. Lego City may be able to do well, but I expect MH3U HD sales to be pretty weak. The stand alone sales were even low in Japan.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
They should have delayed SS and released it on Wii U as well with HD rendering and output using the touch screen for waggle gestures.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Profit/loss isn't the only indicator I was looking at, the PSP -> Vita transition being an example. And that's the only one Kaz presided over so far.
I also doubt Orbis will bear the sort of insane losses PS3 did, but the days of using PlayStation to trojan other Sony initiatives seems to have gone the way of Kutaragi. Orbis won't have anything like the Bluray albatross around it's neck, though it also son't have the company wide benefit of being pushed through at all costs in service of that. It seems like PlayStation's back to being about PlayStation for the most part.
"PlayStation will always be viable" reminds me of "Mario will always drive hardware". I guess it might be true to an extent, until it isn't. See Walkman.
DashReindeer
Lead Community Manager, Outpost Games
Exactly. And we have to assuming Nintendo understands this at least to some extent. So, the question then becomes "what happened?" Were the company's more core focused efforts just lagging behind? Did the hurdles of HD development catch them off guard? Did they vastly overestimate the appeal of NSMB amongst core gamers? I'd love to hear the post mortem for this console launch at some point.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
PS4 will be all about driving SEN.
That's because they prefer to play it on the 3DS.