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[lunchwithyuzo]

Absolutely right. Nintendo banked on NSMBU too much and it just hasn't taken off like they wanted it to. They needed a Zelda ready to go at launch.

It was a strategic misstep for sure, particularly given NSMB2 likely satiated the target audience recently. It's somewhat like the Uncharted 3 and Golden Abyss situation.

NSMBU and Nintendo Land would be okay drivers, but they really needed more 1st party support to rlevate the platform. Clearing the decks for 3rd parties is a mistake Nintendo's made twice now (3DS, Wii U).

PS4 will be all about driving SEN.

SEN is really the future of PlayStation, I don't think it's quite the same thing.

 

[DashReindeer]

With February not having any new big Wii U titles until the end of the month, I suppose Nintendo was being realistic with changing its estimated Wii U hardware sales goal. Too bad February and March aren't likely going to be kind to Wii U software sales. There's too many big game releases coming out especially in March. Lego City may be able to do well, but I expect MH3U HD sales to be pretty weak. The stand alone sales were even low in Japan.

Not saying MonHun's numbers are gonna be crazy or anything, but didn't Tri do reasonably well out here?

 

[jcm]

Considering your own inherent outlook on all things Nintendo, I find this commentary rather hilarious.

I don't have some kind of grudge against Nintendo. I like them, I want them to succeed, and I think they have been making one mistake after another for several years now. The Wii's early, rapid demise caught them with their pants down, they fucked up the 3DS launch, and now they've fucked up the Wii U launch. They appear to have no idea how bad things are (so they have to revise down every damned quarter), and to have no idea how to fix them. I think they need a new CEO.

Tell me, do you think this was a positive earnings release? Do you think that Nintendo is in a good position right now?

 

[Steve Youngblood]

Exactly. And we have to assuming Nintendo understands this at least to some extent. So, the question then becomes "what happened?" Were the company's more core focused efforts just lagging behind? Did the hurdles of HD development catch them off guard? Did they vastly overestimate the appeal of NSMB amongst core gamers? I'd love to hear the post mortem for this console launch at some point.

I'd assume both of these. When even stuff like Pikmin -- a game that looks like it began life as a Wii title -- is showcased as "launch window" and still doesn't have a solid date two months after the console's release, it seems that the transition is affecting them. And given how well New Super Mario Bros. did on Wii, it's not altogether absurd to assume that it might have sold more hardware than it did, even if hindsight can explain why it didn't.

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

It's ridiculous. In interviews they seem to understand that potential launch buyers are probably more of a hobby gamer and yet they completely counted on NSMB and fucking karaoke plus fitness. The games from the Direct should have been the first batch of games, the ones they've started with should have been part of the second at minimum, when the install base is bigger and more casuals might grab the console...

It's not magic, those games take a lot of time.

 

[Father_Brain]

I think it would have been a good idea.

It might not have hurt, but it's highly unlikely that Nintendo would have been able to bring SS up to HD graphical standards in one year, and it would have been difficult to position as a system-selling AAA core title if it looked like a Wii game in HD.

They really did need some kind of AAA core title at launch, though. An original Western-developed (or at least Western-targeted) IP aimed at older gamers would probably have been best for the purposes of audience cultivation, but sadly Nintendo wasn't that smart.

 

[hatchx]

Exactly. And we have to assuming Nintendo understands this at least to some extent. So, the question then becomes "what happened?" Were the company's more core focused efforts just lagging behind? Did the hurdles of HD development catch them off guard? Did they vastly overestimate the appeal of NSMB amongst core gamers? I'd love to hear the post mortem for this console launch at some point.

What happened? Big AAA HD games take time and money, and Karaoke, NSMBU, NintendoLand....well.....don't.

 

[H_Prestige]

$300? No way it's gonna be that cheap at launch, no way in hell. $350 min IMO, and that would be for the 'tard pack'.

What are you basing this on? It doesn't have a discrete GPU. It's just an APU. One of the goals with the ps4 is to make it affordable.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I don't have some kind of grudge against Nintendo. I like them, I want them to succeed, and I think they have been making one mistake after another for several years now. The Wii's early, rapid demise caught them with their pants down, they fucked up the 3DS launch, and now they've fucked up the Wii U launch. They appear to have no idea how bad things are (so they have to revise down every damned quarter), and to have no idea how to fix them. I think they need a new CEO.

Tell me, do you think this was a positive earnings release? Do you think that Nintendo is in a good position right now?

Well, I'm sorry but I don't believe you. I just can't reconcile your forum behavior with what you're saying here.

As for the earnings, profit was a nice surprise, and I think the Wii U figures are on the higher end of what most of us expected given what's known of sellthrough and sales rankings. I also think the revised earnings seem reasonable. This is far from a great result, but it definitely could be worse too.

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

What are you basing this on? It doesn't have a discrete GPU. It's just an APU. One of the goals with the ps4 is to make it affordable.

Ummmmmm......

"Hirai said Sony will target customers willing to pay more and won't get sucked into a price war with cheap and cheerful Chinese players. "

http://www.fudzilla.com/home/item/30160-sony-will-come-back-from-the-dead

Not sure if this is in broader terms but I saw something similar about speculation of their next console.

 

[Father_Brain]

What happened? Big AAA HD games take time and money, and Karaoke, NSMBU, NintendoLand....well.....don't.

They really needed to expand significantly back in 2009, when Wii U software development was presumably just beginning. Instead, it seems like they didn't realize just how much of a leap in resources HD development would require until it was too close to launch to make a difference in the early months.

 

[Somnid]

I think you guys are overestimating "HD development" and not considering the more likely "Launch Games have less time to prepare than mid-gen games."

 

[sublimit]

Has this been posted yet?
Calls for Wii U price cut begin after Nintendo financials

Citigroup analyst Soichiro Fukuda stated in a January 14th report: “Nintendo is in a situation where it needs to launch major titles to ensure quick momentum improvement. If currently poor momentum continues through April to June, then we could see an early price cut, as with the 3DS.”Amir Anvarzadeh of BGC Partners Inc added: “These are horrible sets of numbers.”

Reuters’ report on the financials describes Nintendo’s outlook as “grim”. Bayview Asset Management’s Yasuo Sakuma said of the results: “We have been prepared to see weak sales forecast for Wii U as its sales performances in various regions have been widely reported. But it was negative to see a lower forecast for 3DS software as it is one of the company’s main sales drivers.”

 

[H_Prestige]

Ummmmmm......

"Hirai said Sony will target customers willing to pay more and won't get sucked into a price war with cheap and cheerful Chinese players. "

http://www.fudzilla.com/home/item/30160-sony-will-come-back-from-the-dead

That quote has nothing to do with consoles. Unless there is a flood of cheap Chinese consoles dominating the market that I'm not aware of.

 

[KillerMan91]

Ummmmmm......

"Hirai said Sony will target customers willing to pay more and won't get sucked into a price war with cheap and cheerful Chinese players. "

http://www.fudzilla.com/home/item/30160-sony-will-come-back-from-the-dead

In tv market.

 

[Miles X]

Anyone else think DS and Wii will be discontinued in the next 15 months? (Latest being the end of FY13?)

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

In tv market.

No(but yeah not a good link), saw something similar regarding their next console, a thread was made here.

I probably won't find it though.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Ummmmmm......

"Hirai said Sony will target customers willing to pay more and won't get sucked into a price war with cheap and cheerful Chinese players. "

http://www.fudzilla.com/home/item/30160-sony-will-come-back-from-the-dead

Not sure if this is in broader terms but I saw something similar about speculation of their next console.

Yes all of those Chinese console brands are pushing Sony so hard.

The comments from Kaz were specific to mobile and televisions where they make a lot of sense.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Well, whatever the case, Nintendo needed to have more ready upfront. Wether than meant cannibalizing late term Wii games (like Rhythm Heaven Fever or Mario Party 9) or 3DS games (like Kid Icarus Uprising), or bringing in outside devs to co-produce games and get them out on schedule (as they did for the holiday 3DS games in 2011), they needed to do it and didn't.

There's other things Nintendo coild have done too. Accelerating the Virtual Console roadmap seems like a pretty straightforward one, if they'd had some Saturn, Dreamcast and Gamecube games (plus more of the old stuff) to fill the gaps it certainly could have helped.

 

[Shion]

I think you guys are overestimating "HD development" and not considering the more likely "Launch Games have less time to prepare than mid-gen games."

Because the scope of game development for each title is getting larger and larger, we cannot prepare enough titles for Wii U with the same approaches as we have in the past.

As I said in the other thread, Nintendo should have expanded a lot while they were earning crazy amounts of money during the DS/Wii phenomenon (especially by investing in western studios imo).

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

Yes all of those Chinese console brands are pushing Sony so hard.

The comments from Kaz were specific to mobile and televisions where they make a lot of sense.

I swear there was a link on this very gaming side where it implied their new console isn't going to be cheap.

I know there was though it was people speculating off a quote.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Anyone else think DS and Wii will be discontinued in the next 15 months? (Latest being the end of FY13?)

DS yes, Wii might go a bit longer depending on how the Wii mini test goes.

 

[Bony Manifesto]

What happened? Big AAA HD games take time and money, and Karaoke, NSMBU, NintendoLand....well.....don't.

Plus, didn't they say Nintendoland was a bunch of prototypes they couldn't see a way of spinning out into full retail releases individually? To me, that sounds like Nintendoland wasn't planned as much as it born out of a necessity to have a first-party launch title that takes advantage of the controller. I don't think they wanted to launch with another NSMB game either, but it's a very cheap, very easy game to knock out and past iterations have been best-selling games on their respective consoles, so they probably thought it would pick up the slack even though it didn't really take advantage of the console's capabilities.

 

[H_Prestige]

I swear there was a link on this very gaming side where it implied their new console isn't going to be cheap.

I know there was though it was people speculating off a quote.

A ton of people misinterpreted that quote in the original thread so I'm not surprised that it's the common perception.

Let's not forget that Vita launched at the same price as 3DS, despite being substantially better spec'd. I'm expecting $350 for ps4. $300 if Sony really wants to play hardball.

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

A ton of people misinterpreted that quote in the original thread so I'm not surprised that it's the common perception.

Let's not forget that Vita launched at the same price as 3DS, despite being substantially better spec'd. I'm expecting $350 for ps4. $300 if Sony really wants to play hardball.

Well, ok, but my guess is 450$.

Maybe 400$ but nothing less.

I don't know what the "sweet spot" is in this day and age and economy though.

 

[Somnid]

As I said in the other thread, Nintendo should have expanded a lot while they were earning crazy amounts of money during the DS/Wii phenomenon (especially by investing in western studios imo).

They did expand. But you can't just throw people (or money) at projects, they take time and launch games don't have as much.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

A ton of people misinterpreted that quote in the original thread so I'm not surprised that it's the common perception.

Let's not forget that Vita launched at the same price as 3DS, despite being substantially better spec'd. I'm expecting $350 for ps4. $300 if Sony really wants to play hardball.

I guess you're also expecting consumer gouging unbundled propietary memory for Orbis? Because that's how Vita was able to meet 3DS pricepoint.

 

[H_Prestige]

I guess you're also expecting consumer gouging unbundled propietary memory for Orbis? Because that's how Vita was able to meet 3DS pricepoint.

You think the lack of on board flash is the reason vita could launch at $250? That shit is cheap. Vita memory card prices are result of sony trying to gouge extra money, nothing else.

I don't expect memory cards in orbis. I expect preinstalled hard drives, and perhaps a base model with only on board flash.

 

[hachi]

What happened? Big AAA HD games take time and money, and Karaoke, NSMBU, NintendoLand....well.....don't.

Nonsense, developing a game like that--or Wii Sports Resort, the previous Nintendo entry to which I'd compare it--is a tremendous undertaking on par with whatever AAA(A...) title you'd like to name. It may not have a huge game world at first glance, but there are still tons of unique assets and, more importantly, games of this nature are all about polishing a set of big ideas for the new controller or technology, showing a wide range of what it can do.

Development and cost is not just about building levels, you know; plenty of established AAA franchises probably cost a lot less to make than expected, given the relatively finished state of their engine and gameplay before starting.

 

[kpjolee]

What are you basing this on? It doesn't have a discrete GPU. It's just an APU. One of the goals with the ps4 is to make it affordable.

But APU in PS4 is much bigger than what would be in regular Fusion. I think $399 is more likely.

 

[Hiltz]

That's because they prefer to play it on the 3DS.

Yes, you are right about that.

Not saying MonHun's numbers are gonna be crazy or anything, but didn't Tri do reasonably well out here?

The game came out on April 20, 2010 in the US. It failed to make it on to the top 10 NPD chart, coming in at #11 with 110,879 copies sold during its first week. To compare, the game sold 73,099 copies in Europe during its first week. By July 30th, the game sold 690k copies between U.S. and Europe. In Japan, the game came out on August 1, 2009, and sold 520k copies on day one of its release, but by the second month, the game fell off the charts, selling around 720k copies, and 915k copies sold by October 2009. It went on to move a total of 1.1 million copies By the end of July, worldwide sales were at 1.8 million copies. Capcom last reported that the game sold 1.9 million copies, making it the company's 23rd best selling game.

Enterbrain President Hirokazu Hamamura expressed his disappointment over the sales of Capcom's Monster Hunter 3 in Japan:

I thought it would sell more. Crossing the million mark was the passing grade, though. On the Wii, which doesn't have games targeting core game fans, it made a strong effort against the 'hurdles' of being on a console and being a network game. However, I believe they [Capcom] wanted it to reach 1.5 million to 2 million copies.

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

Nonsense, developing a game like that--or Wii Sports Resort, the previous Nintendo entry to which I'd compare it--is a tremendous undertaking on par with whatever AAA(A...) title you'd like to name. It may not have a huge game world at first glance, but there are still tons of unique assets and, more importantly, games of this nature are all about polishing a set of big ideas for the new controller or technology, showing a wide range of what it can do.

Development and cost is not just about building levels, you know; plenty of established AAA franchises probably cost a lot less to make than expected, given the relatively finished state of their engine and gameplay before starting.

It's the "minigame" stigma.

They'll never be taken seriously by certain groups no matter how quality and polished they are.

In fact, in this thread or another on the first page, NintendoLand was predictably dismissed as "shovelware".

It's a sad state of affairs when games aren't judged on their merits but rather their type.

 

[Diablos54]

I don't expect memory cards in orbis. I expect preinstalled hard drives, and perhaps a base model with only on board flash.

If it comes with a hard drive (Which I think it will), that's already an added cost. The PS4 won't be as cheap as you think, it has to be able to stand toe to toe with the Xbox for them to try and make an impact. Anything under $400 is gonna be a huge stretch, and Sony can't afford to take PS3 style losses at launch this time around.

In the U.S., the game failed to make it on to the top 10 NPD chart, coming in at #11, having sold 110,879 copies during its first week. To compare, the game sold 73,099 copies in Europe during its first week. By July 30th, the game sold 690k copies between U.S. and Europe by the end of July 2010. Worldwide sales were at 1.8 million. The worldwide game sales were last reported to be at 1.9 million, (1.1 million sold in Japan) making MH Tri Capcom's 23rd best selling game of all time.

Enterbrain President Hirokazu Hamamura expressed his disappointment over the sales of Capcom's Monster Hunter 3 in Japan:

It's the best selling home system MH, I dunno how they can be disappointed with that, especially considering it's a portable franchise (And they know that). But then, Capcom can have INSANE sales expectations sometimes.

 

[Meier]

Not a profit, but certainly not a $300 loss. Maybe $299 losing $50 up front.

I would be absolutely shocked if the PS4 or X360 launch under $400. Definitely not any lower than $350. These companies have to build price drop viability into the devices. Keep in mind that 360's still cost $300 on average 7 years later.

 

[H_Prestige]

If it comes with a hard drive (Which I think it will), that's already an added cost. The PS4 won't be as cheap as you think, it has to be able to stand toe to toe with the Xbox for them to try and make an impact. Anything under $400 is gonna be a huge stretch, and Sony can't afford to take PS3 style losses at launch this time around.

Losing $50 is not ps3 style loss. You forget that ps1, ps2, and psp were all sold for a loss.

 

[kinggroin]

It might not have hurt, but it's highly unlikely that Nintendo would have been able to bring SS up to HD graphical standards in one year, and it would have been difficult to position as a system-selling AAA core title if it looked like a Wii game in HD.

They really did need some kind of AAA core title at launch, though. An original Western-developed (or at least Western-targeted) IP aimed at older gamers would probably have been best for the purposes of audience cultivation, but sadly Nintendo wasn't that smart.

What the fuck is zombie u? A ham sandwich?


Oh that reminds me. People. Buy Zombi-U!

 

[PhantomR]

This year will be critical for 3DS. Right now it's on a good sales pace, but this year it really has to break out to keep pace with DS. I think NOA is banking on Animal Crossing and Pokemon X/Y to really drive sales through fall and Fire Emblem and Luigi's Mansion to really drive sales through spring. I think that strategy will payoff.

$160 million in profit after continuous quarters of loss is very good. They gotta keep it up.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

You think the lack of on board flash is the reason vita could launch at $250? That shit is cheap. Vita memory card prices are result of sony trying to gouge extra money, nothing else.

It's a hidden (and arguably mandatory) cost in Vita, there's no doubt it was factored into the hardware profitability roadmap. These things ALWAYS are. If Sony had gone with standard memory, it undoubtedly would've raised the unit's base price to account for that.

The 3DS/Vita example is terrible anyway since one was profitable at price parity, while both Wii U and Orbis would be eating a loss at $300.

 

[mantidor]

They should have delayed SS and released it on Wii U as well with HD rendering and output using the touch screen for waggle gestures.

Skyward Sword doesn't use waggle.

It wouldn't have worked as a WiiU launch title, unless it was packed in with motion plus or the console itself was packed in with motion plus.

People love to criticise Nintendo throwing randoms "they should have...", truth is Nintendo had a pretty solid lineup, Nintendo Land, Mario, third party exclusive and ports, it didn't work they way they intended but I don't see how you could improve that launch lineup.

 

[Diablos54]

Losing $50 is not ps3 style loss. You forget that ps1, ps2, and psp were all sold for a loss.

Yes, I know they were, but making sure they match up to the Xbox at under $400 would most likely mean they take a pretty big loss. And, they can't really afford to go with a big loss leader strategy (But they still will if needed).

 

[kinggroin]

That quote has nothing to do with consoles. Unless there is a flood of cheap Chinese consoles dominating the market that I'm not aware of.

You seen the polystation and Vii numbers last NPD?

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

Skyward Sword doesn't use waggle.

It wouldn't have worked as a WiiU launch title, unless it was packed in with motion plus or the console itself was packed in with motion plus.

People love to criticise Nintendo throwing randoms "they should have...", truth is Nintendo had a pretty solid lineup, Nintendo Land, Mario, third party exclusive and ports, it didn't work they way they intended but I don't see how you could improve that launch lineup.

People expect them to have games like Retro's and EAD Tokyo's at launch.

They simply weren't ready, no one knows if they are even ready for this year.

It's so easy to SAY what should be at launch but that's far from realistic and reality unless they delayed the console another year or two and that wouldn't be smart for reasons.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

It's the best selling home system MH, I dunno how they can be disappointed with that, especially considering it's a portable franchise (And they know that). But then, Capcom can have INSANE sales expectations sometimes.

Capcom wasn't dissapointed, they highlighted both sales and subscriptions in financial reports and were generally positive on how Tri performed. The PlayStation-shilling president of Enterbrain =/= Capcom.

 

[apana]

Wii U and 3DS are selling fine I guess. The only issue is the cost that went into producing them was too much. They stretched themselves a little too thin for the sake of innovation. I think a Wii 2 with improved motion controls could still be doing these sales and would be a cheaper console to produce.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

3DS at 30 millions in less than 2 years = Nintendo caught lightning in a bottle a third time in a row.

Reaching such a critical mass was extremely important, because now kids who don't have a 3DS know friends who do, and you can bet it will be their next birthday/christmas present.

Despite the rough time ahead comments we can read on GAF, 3DS is now sure to follow the DS path to success.

So Nintendo can concentrate on Wii U. I'll leave that to another post.

Yeah, lowering the 3DS hardware and software is sure desirable for Nintendo.

They have adjusted down their 3DS software forecast from 70 million to 50. That's the main issue Nintendo must solve.

 

[Kai Dracon]

It's the "minigame" stigma.

They'll never be taken seriously by certain groups no mater how quality and polished they are.

In fact, in this thread or another on the first page, NintendoLand was predictably dismissed as "shovelware".

It's a sad state of affairs when games aren't judged on their merits but rather their type.

The truth is it's always been this way, because that's how people are.

Go back to 1992 with your Super Nintendo school buddies, and most of them wouldn't ever play an RPG because "those are lame, you don't do anything and just watch fights". Have you ever actually played Final Fantasy, Timmy? "No, I ain't never. They's lame games."

Go back to 2003 with your Playstation 2 friends and ask why nobody cares about 2D games anymore, or platformers. "Haw haw, too dee? That's Super Nintendo. Nobody wants old cheap Super Nintendo games today. Metal Gear and Final Fantasy shit on that crap."

Arrive in Space Year 2012, and you'll find plenty of blanket dismissal predicated on whatever we are supposed to hate now. Be it "minigame" collections, mobile games, social stuff, or Call of Duty.

 

[AgentP]

Now we see if Nintendo will bring down the price of the Wii U.

They're making a profit again, so they might not want to. Not anytime soon, at least.

They might not have a choice soon, they are the new kids now, but not for long. As soon as the new consoles release the Wii U is going to look like a pretty poor choice at $350.

 

[enzo_gt]

God, Pokemon X and Y are going to do stupid numbers when they come out.

 

[miksar]

This year will be critical for 3DS. Right now it's on a good sales pace, but this year it really has to break out to keep pace with DS. I think NOA is banking on Animal Crossing and Pokemon X/Y to really drive sales through fall and Fire Emblem and Luigi's Mansion to really drive sales through spring. I think that strategy will payoff.

Animal Crossing is coming this spring if I didn't miss anything. I also don't think they'd put so much hope in Luigi's Mansion and Fire Emblem, both games will likely be sub-200K in the US.

 

[Diablos54]

The PlayStation-shilling president of Enterbrain =/= Capcom.

Uh... I KNEW THAT! >_> I just assumed the quote was from Capcom considering we were talking about how a Capcom game sold.

Animal Crossing is coming this spring if I didn't miss anything. I also don't think they'd put so much hope in Luigi's Mansion and Fire Emblem, both games will likely be sub-200K in the US.

I expect at least FE to break 500k eventually, how did the previous FE's do in the West?