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Nintendo posts $160M net income, cuts 3DS/Wii U/NDS/Wii forecasts
- Thread starter Parmenides
- Start date
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Realistic or not, they're going to have to adjust price before Durango/Orbis, even if just as a support preserving measure. They had to do it with 3DS and did (to mostly great effect), Sony had to with Vita and didn't (to catastrophic effect), now Wii U's in a similar predicament.
Nintendo basically has to have a $100 price barrier against he other next gen consoles for the hardware they've gone with (modest chipset, expensive controller). I expect at least a $50 price drop or some heavy SKU reshuffling before next fall.
Father_Brain
Banned
Oh, a price cut would make much more sense in Q3 or even early Q4. I just don't think it's happening before then.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Oh, I can agree with that. I definitely think a price cut is off the table before E3.
No.
They dont need a price cut.
They need software that will sell the system.
Orbis and Durango are most likely not going to priced
lower than the WiiU.
The Wii didnt need a price cut when it had to compete against
consoles with a larger power gap than the WiiU will have with its
competitors.
Steve Youngblood
Member
Portugeezer
Member
He explained it in one of his videos a long time ago after people kept bitching about it, people stopped, but to me it always sounded stupid.
We dont know what the price for the other two consoles are.
But that said, you could get a 360 for 299
So you think that 249 vs 299 is a significant difference when you consider how much more
powerful the 360 was to the Wii?
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
If the Wii U does get a price drop for the holidays I think it should be about $50($100 if the new consoles end up being really cheap somehow) maybe make bundles for both NSMBU and Wii Fit U depending on the reception. Wii U Sports and Wii U Party should include Wii Remotes as well.
shinra-bansho
Member
The SW projection was still ridiculously unrealistic if one includes those titles.
Also, I'm not sure why people are saying these 'profits' are really great if they're just a result of the BoJ finally doing something about the historically strong yen.
The Wii had Wii Sports. Expecting a Wii Sports like phenomenon really is folly.
The Yen has been the main thing screwing over Nintendo and other companies. The Yen finally being reigned in only means increasing profits for Japanese companies or decreasing losses in the case of some
Spieler Eins
Member
So, will there be a thread for the investor meeting? It's happening shortly, isn't it
When are we going to stop pretending 3DS is a big hit? It's huge in Japan but is not doing anything particularly impressive in the rest of the world. And has now consistently with each financial result under-performed and now resulted in forecasts for 3DS being slashed. It is beating DS at the current time point, but the DS was a disaster till DS Lite and that cross-over date is fast approaching.
Nintendo needs to fix the Wii U situation obviously but the 3DS situation outside of Japan needs major rework because the current strategy is not working outside of Japan.
Nintendo needs to fix the Wii U situation obviously but the 3DS situation outside of Japan needs major rework because the current strategy is not working outside of Japan.
shinra-bansho
Member
Yes, but this book-keeping "profit" is accompanied by a FY forecast revision from a profit to a loss. I.e. doesn't that mean even with the adjustment of the yen the outlook has actually worsened.
If there is a briefing its usually the next day. Indeed site says 31st
Modified forecast says while overall sales will decline net income will actually go up 133% from prior forecast
bigtroyjon
Member
The main thing that has been screwing Nintendo over is they are losing money selling video games.
Nintendo's operations are mostly shielded from the Yen, it simply affects their currency holdings at this point. So unless you think the Yen is going to continue to depreciate 20% every single quarter, it's really a non factor going forward.
Nintendo slashed it's estimates of how much hardware and software for 3DS they will sell in in 2013 and had a rather weak showing in the 4th Quarter in the west, it was down from the previous year in fact. Which should not happen for systems early in their life.
Don't let the massive insane success of 3DS in Japan mask the fact it is doing pretty underwhelming in America and Europe still. Systems that are going great don't have their forecasted hardware and software sales slashed.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Software hinged on the hardware forescast, which was admittedly too bullish. However what Pachter labeled unrealistic was the attach rate, which has barely changed.
Isn't it the 31st in Japan? Do we at what time when the investor meeting is?
yeah I had a brain fart it is indeed the 31st over there. Its 9:50 am over there now so probably in next few hours I think it usually is
18.5 to 15 million is a slash?
In what world is it not? 3DS is not selling as well as Nintendo had hoped it would. Particularly in the west.
Psychotext
Member
That's nearly 20%... it's about equivalent to someone losing an arm at the shoulder (or a leg about half way up the thigh).
Eh, to each his own. 2013 looks to be awesome for both handhelds anyways. A worldwide Pokemon, and Killzone will definitely move units.
gamergirly
Member
It's not selling as well but nowhere near the bleak outlook that you paint. Anyone else selling 30 million handheld systems around here? 20% is a scratch, not an ER call
Baki
Member
Cheebo is right, Japan is propping up the 3DS right now (with absolutely insane numbers). That said, the system is doing the best it can without western support and in a post iOS world.
20% is a very sizable slash, it isn't good by any stretch. Especially when you just look at the west. Nintendo saying that 3DS will fail to sell 20% of what they predicted for the next year is quite sizable, especially when it wasn't selling a ton to begin with. It should be growing at this stage in it's life not shrinking.
A WiiSports phenomenon is not necessary for the WiiU to be a profitable and successful
system for Nintendo.
Every console has a game or games that sell the system.
Sometimes, like the Wii, it happens at launch, sometimes it happens later in the cycle.
The WiiU still has the opportunity to have games that will boost it's sales.
There is no need for a price reduction for at least two more years if the games
that will come out for the system is compelling. And they definitely don't need to do
it because new consoles are coming out.
But I wouldnt be surprised if they were always planning on dropping the 8gig SKU and replace it with the 32gig a year after launch or once they hit some special target.
gamergirly
Member
No, it's an exaggeration by you.
Steve Youngblood
Member
Perhaps not getting carried away is good advice, but 20% is hardly insignificant. The 29% cut in software also isn't a particularly great sign.
I can somewhat agree with that, but with more titles, more people would be inclined to buy games. The userbase would possible be larger due to those games. It would be certainly possible to surpass 16 million (not sure about 24 million) with a steady release of games, but that hasn't been the case.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
3DS is generally the 2nd best selling platform in America (behind 360) and Europe (behind PS3). And it's utterly dominating Japan like no system ever really has. People are negatively overstating it's western performance, especially considering Paper Mario was it's lone Q4 release.
where did he say it was insignificant ?
It doesn't really matter too much if it's not preforming as well in the west compared to Japan as long as its doing good somewhere and as long as Nintendo are making money and games right? That doesn't mean it should bomb everywhere, but if the west is a modest success and its a beast in Japan, as long as Nintendo continue to Sell units and make money what's the problem? If they sold 50 million units worldwide with 40 million in Japan and 10 in the west sure that would be an indication that it's underperforming in the west, but a sale is a sale no matter where it is in the world. Not to say that it should or is getting to that stage, but undermining the Japanese performance is silly. It doesn't have to sell equally in All regions, sometimes certain markets resonate with products better then others.
Just look at the Xbox 360 Japanese performance to get an understanding of what I'm on about, selling well all around the world apart from Japan but that doesn't negate the overall effect of the console worldwide.
Just look at the Xbox 360 Japanese performance to get an understanding of what I'm on about, selling well all around the world apart from Japan but that doesn't negate the overall effect of the console worldwide.
Holy shit, NSMB is at 30 million... Mario Kart Wii is at 34 million...
Except Nintendo is cutting their sales prediction for 2013 by 20%, it is doing great in Japan but Japan is not a large enough market to hold up the west, otherwise they wouldn't be cutting sales predictions by 20%.
Baki
Member
It's slugging it out with the PS3 in the US (where the PS3 has had significant YoY decline). I can't comment on Europe sales. That said, the 3DS looks to be posting GBA numbers (overall), thanks to Japan. Which is good considering the current market. The software is slightly more worrisome but handhelds traditionally have had poor attach rates (sans DS) and Nintendo is going to make crazy bank off their first party games.
But yes, if I was Iwata, I'd be worried about both platforms. 20% and 29% cuts from your forecasts are not good signs at all.
Steve Youngblood
Member
Well, she disagreed that it was a sizable slash, calling that an "exaggeration." Further, in the medical ailment metaphors, she likened it to "a scratch." I don't know about you, but when someone asks me if I'm hurt, and I respond "it's just a scratch," I'm generally suggesting that it's a pretty insignificant injury.
R10Neymarfan
Member
Second stick with two extra should buttons bundled with Pokemon X or Y should be the money maker!
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
That and Rayman being a bad game. Good thing they are making money.
i see though it seems to me that while it was a decent chunk it wasn't quite significant so maybe a decent chunk would be a better description meaning that it i does have an effect but not a huge one.
Narpas Sword0
Member
I paid $3.80/gallon of gas yesterday. Reducing that by 20% would be $3.04.
A reduction of 20% is headline-worthy.
Steve Youngblood
Member
Well, it's certainly not time to call the coroner. The 3DS is going to be a viable platform for first party software at the very least for some time to come. I think we are just sort of at a crossroads in trying to ascertain Nintendo's position as a dominant global powerhouse in the mobile gaming sphere in this post iDevice world.
2013 is going to a very telling year. Despite missing targets, the numbers are fairly decont overall. But software seems to be struggling. This year, some big titles are coming. Particularly of note will be Pokemon X/Y to lead us into the holiday season. This could very well be a breakout year, and once again Nintendo will rest easy knowing that the mass market still desires Nintendo handhelds. But if growth is stagnant again outside Japan? That will be troubling.
shinra-bansho
Member
Investor meeting notes are up.
Eyeballing, I'd put their estimate of Wii U for EU at ~420K.
Will do a proper pixel count in a bit.
Eyeballing, I'd put their estimate of Wii U for EU at ~420K.
Will do a proper pixel count in a bit.
TheRedSnifit
Member
This is a pretty decent launch, if not above average. I suspect that a lot of their woes came from selling two different packages: everybody wants the premium package, but those only make up about 50% of available units. They effectively halved their supply.
Steve Youngblood
Member
This would be a valid observation if the problem was that Basic units were clogging the pipeline while Premiums were hard to come by, but that's not the case. I don't see how the situation would have been helped at all by only having the more expensive Premium SKU.