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[C.Monkey]

He's right though. The WiiU is off to a horrendous start it is unlikely to recover from. And no, the 3DS is not comparable. Japan likes handhelds more than it likes consoles.

 

[Diddy Kong]

I honestly don't understand the intent of posts like this. What -- besides not liking Michael Pachter or what he's saying here -- makes his analysis so egregious. I can see having a different take than him on what's about to happen, but is it really necessary to insult his intelligence and proceed to not even argue against his observation outside of professing that he's always so off the mark that the opposite occurs?

What else is there to say when someone who always bashes Nintendo and is always wrong about everything? A majority of his words are a mistake and I don't understand why threads about him haven't been banned yet. We haven't even seen Nintendo's first party titles roll out yet and because he was wrong about them having a great start they're suddenly doomed..

 

[Glass Rebel]

They're expanding. But that's a very risky process and takes a lot of care. There's really nothing they could do about the 3rd party situation, particularly in the West. I think the 3DS and Wii U are just hitting during a very transitional period in general for the industry, which makes me wonder how well the PS4 and Durango are going to do unless they pull something really clever and distinct off.

They are expanding but I feel that they're a bit late (not too late, hopefully). Either that or they foolishly thought that third-parties would pick up the slack on Wii U and 3DS. The realization that third-parties, especially Western ones, weren't going to support the platform as much as they wanted should have come to them mid-Wii generation. I know it's Nintendo but I'm still surprised that they haven't opened at least one studio in Europe or the US.

 

[Baconsammy]

Wait, people in this thread still think 3DS is doing good? Are you serious?

Nintendo had to massively cut software forecasts from 70 million to 50 million after software sales for 3DS started to collapse after winter 2011.

3DS hardware is trending down every month and year over year. Nintendo's initial FY 2012 projections were 18.5 million, then halfway through the year they took it down to 17 million, then a few months ago down to 15 million. And they are likely going to miss that 15 million number too.

3DS is doing good in one region, Japan. Everywhere else it is struggling. It cannot prop up WiiU like GBA did to GCN. It won't match GBA hardware sales and it's software sales are so far much worse than GBA's were.

I think you'll find the people that believe the 3DS is doing great only visit the Japanese sales threads. Nintendo desperately need sales in the West of games and consoles to pick up in order to reverse this course of constantly lowering expectations. If it doesn't happen by the end of the year with all that's coming out, it most likely will never come.

 

[Coolwhip]

Nice one.

 

[Coloress_Kafka]

If Nintendo, with 20 billion in cash reserves, can't recover then they don't deserve to.

Where did this number come from? Nintendo's last report listed something around $5.5 billion in cash.

 

[jstripes]

Wait, people in this thread still think 3DS is doing good? Are you serious?

3DS isn't selling gangbusters, but it's sustaining itself somehow.

If it can hang on until Pokemon arrives (which is likely), it can carve itself out a comfy market as the go-to dedicated gaming handheld.

 

[farnham]

Haha. Let's agree to disagree, shall we? =)



Understood. I'm just saying it's an assumption. People assumed NSMB U would drive Wii U adoption significantly, for example.

Definately it is.

I think you'll find the people that believe the 3DS is doing great only visit the Japanese sales threads. Nintendo desperately need sales in the West of games and consoles to pick up in order to reverse this course of constantly lowering expectations. If it doesn't happen by the end of the year with all that's coming out, it most likely will never come.

I wholeheartly agree with this

 

[Steve Youngblood]

What else is there to say when someone who always bashes Nintendo and is always wrong about everything?

I don't know. You could attempt to refute his assertion as opposed to just deriding him as an idiot and calling it a day. If he's as dumb as you say, it shouldn't be difficult to counter his observation.

A majority of his words are a mistake and I don't understand why threads about him haven't been banned yet.

Why would they be banned? They generate lots of conversation. Honestly, this is a serious question: why do you think that threads about Pachter's media sound bites should be regarded as a bannable offense?

 

[Cheebo]

'going to have' means you're assuming that those titles will drive adoption massively in the West, no?

Mario Land and Mario Kart were supposed to save the 3DS in America but only boosted sales for couple of months why will this be any different? 3DS is trending down down down right now in the west. That's really bad for a young platform.

 

[Vinci]

They are expanding but I feel that they're a bit late (not too late, hopefully). Either that or they foolishly thought that third-parties would pick up the slack on Wii U and 3DS. The realization that third-parties, especially Western ones, weren't going to support the platform as much as they wanted should have come to them mid-Wii generation. I know it's Nintendo but I'm still surprised that they haven't opened at least one studio in Europe or the US.

Well, ideally Retro would become their new Rare and take up some of the Western slack. Nintendo is just very conservative. Very careful about investing a lot of money into things or people they're unsure whether they'll need or not.

Oh well. I don't think it's too late, just may prove to diminish the Wii U's potential.

Mario Land and Mario Kart were supposed to save the 3DS in America but only boosted sales for couple of months why will this be any different?

Um, yes. That was the thrust of my argument.

 

[farnham]

I don't know. You could attempt to refute his assertion as opposed to just deriding him as an idiot and calling it a day. If he's as dumb as you say, it shouldn't be difficult to counter his observation.



Why would they be banned? They generate lots of conversation. Honestly, this is a serious question: why do you think that threads about Pachter's media sound bites should be regarded as a bannable offense?

Well that certain sales website or that specific nintendo blog did generate a lot of conversation too

 

[Gahiggidy]

Nintendo needs to fix their advertising problem. As far as I can remember they've always been overshadowed on television by their competitors. "Who are you? was pretty god though. I think building a campaign around Non-Specific Action Figure would be a good start.

 

[DjRoomba]

Jesus christ Pachter wait for 3D Mario before making such a bold statement

 

[Relax.MX]

Gametrailers have one of the moat anoying crew of the industry like the beer guy and thi guy

 

[Clear]

He's right though. The WiiU is off to a horrendous start it is unlikely to recover from.

This. Wii-U basically needs a re-launch in order to get the messaging back on track, and that's going to be difficult when both Sony ans MS are hogging the public's attention in the run up to their own system launches.

The bigger issue going forwards, is that Nintendo have no choice but to commit to the platform for the next few years. This is bad for their long-term financial outlook.

 

[Sola Scriptura]

Any prediction equivalent to "Nintendo is doomed due to the Wii U" is still much too early at this point, which, ironically, is something that Pachter and other prognosticators seem to have conveniently ignored. Nintendo, GAF, and anyone else out there who has paid even a modicum of attention to the industry over the years knows that the primary appeal of any Nintendo console is first-party software. At this point, there is not enough first-party software out there to gauge even remotely whether or not such titles will sell systems and produce a higher attach rate.

Come back with a more informed prediction in about a year or so.

 

[Pachterballs]

Wii U sold only 55,000 units in January across the US,

um..


but yeah, egg on faces @ nintnedo

 

[Vinci]

Jesus christ Pachter wait for 3D Mario before making such a bold statement

3D Mario has not historically proven as strong a system seller as NSMB. We will see, though.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

Well that certain sales website or that specific nintendo blog did generate a lot of conversation too

I think the difference is that there is no wanton misinformation on Pachter's part that gets presented as fact. He provides analysis. That's it. He's not a phony insider making up rumors that are supposed to be regarded as insider info, and he's not presenting his sales numbers as anything but predictions.

 

[miksar]

Nintendo is finished. There's nothing that can help it survive. By the end of the year Iwata will be on his knees right before Microsoft and Sony offices desperately asking for his company's assets to be bought. No one wants to play Mario anymore, Wii and DS are proven fads. While other companies reinvented genres and built new exciting franchises Nintendo kept recycling the same games all over again with zero innovation. Honestly I don't see why anyone who considers himself to be a real gamer would want it to survive. Nintendo is pitiful in its attempts to stay relevant, it was lucky a few times before but that's it. Its reign is finally over, a new era of gaming has begun.

 

[Cheebo]

3DS isn't selling gangbusters, but it's sustaining itself somehow.

If it can hang on until Pokemon arrives (which is likely), it can carve itself out a comfy market as the go-to dedicated gaming handheld.

Missing every Single sales target even after they are constantly revised downwards is not sustaining itself

 

[Taurus]

3D Mario has not historically proven as strong a system seller as NSMB. We will see, though.

Super Mario 64?

 

[The Mana Legend]

I honestly think Pachter makes these comments now just to get a rise out of NeoGAF.

 

[Barry Burton]

Nintendo as a company can certainly recover even if the Wii U ends up being a disaster, but I can see the Wii U on its own reaching a point where it'll end up being classified as a bomb (and the system itself won't be able to turn that around). Nintendo is going to have a lot of work to do to keep this system viable for the next 4-5 years, and Mario/Zelda/etc. can only do so much.

 

[Mr.Squirrel]

I'll just leave this here:

http://**************/2013/01/michael-pachters-flip-flopping-wii-u/

The world’s most famous video game analyst, Michael Pachter, never shies from expressing his opinion. That’s his job, after all. However, when it comes to Nintendo and the Wii U, his opinions over the past year have not only enraged Nintendo fans, he has been widely inconsistent, as we’ll show in this article.

This isn’t about making predictions. Anyone can do that, analyst or not. This is about Pachter taking a stance only to change his position a few months or weeks later. Worse, it’s about Pachter rampant hypocrisy when it comes to Nintendo. We’ve rounded up 3 important points where Pachter consistently flip-flopped on the Wii U and Nintendo.

1: Wii U will sell out and be popular, but Nintendo is done
Pachter has held several positions when it comes to the popularity of the Wii U. One of the very first comments he made on the Wii U was that “it won’t work“. He even said the Wii U would be “the next Dreamcast”
But somewhere along the way, his opinion changed. In late 2012, he said that the console will be popular and “will sell out” for months, all the way until March 2013.
And then again, he decided to change his mind and go after Nintendo. He said that the company “just doesn’t get it“, and that Microsoft and Sony are “destroying Nintendo“. He even went further and said that Nintendo has become “irrelevant“.
And yet, only days ago he predicted that the Wii U could go on to sell 45 million units during its lifetime, which is quite high by today’s standards.

2: Doesn’t like it, but will play it
Pachter has said several times that he doesn’t like the Wii U and that he expects the new Nintendo console to fail. Only to later on say that he’ll buy the console just to play Bayonetta 2. He said at E3 that he wasn’t impressed by the Wii U games lineup, only to later praise Nintendo Land and New Super Mario Bros U.

3: Wii U Sales forecast
A few months before the Wii U launch, Nintendo went on the record saying that it expects to sell about 5.5 million Wii U consoles by March 2013. Pachter was quick to comment on that number. He went on record saying that Nintendo’s Wii U sales forecast is unrealistic.
But it gets even better. Nintendo said in October 2012 that they would sell 5.5 million Wii Us, which Pachter thinks is unrealistic. However, a month earlier, Pachter himself made a Wii U sales prediction. His number? 7 million.

So let’s recap the sales flip flopping: Pachter predicts that the Wii U will sell 7 million. Nintendo says they will sell 5.5 million. Pachter thinks this is unrealistic. Later, Pachter revises his own number and predicts 5.5 million just as Nintendo said.

And so it goes…

Thank you based pachter

 

[farnham]

3D Mario has not historically proven as strong a system seller as NSMB. We will see, though.

I think for wiiu it will be wii fit u and wii party u and potentially mario kart u. If they cant improve sales with those titles it means they have lost their touch to sell games to casuals. Without casuals as their main customerbase nintendo is confined to nintendofans only.. Wiiu will probably reach gamecube numbers then.

 

[AZ Greg]

Nintendo is finished. There's nothing that can help it survive. By the end of the year Iwata will be on his knees right before Microsoft and Sony offices desperately asking for his company's assets to be bought. No one wants to play Mario anymore, Wii and DS are proven fads. While other companies reinvented genres and built new exciting franchises Nintendo kept recycling the same games all over again with zero innovation. Honestly I don't see why anyone who considers himself to be a real gamer would want it to survive. Nintendo is pitiful in its attempts to stay relevant, it was lucky a few times before but that's it. Its reign is finally over, a new era of gaming has begun.

I consider myself pretty good at telling what is a joke post and what isn't, but I'm just not sure this time...

 

[Vinci]

Super Mario 64?

Super Mario Sunshine.

Okay. Now your turn. =)

I think for wiiu it will be wii fit u and wii party u and potentially mario kart u. If they cant improve sales with those titles it means they have lost their touch to sell games to casuals. Without casuals as their main customerbase nintendo is confined to nintendofans only.. Wiiu will probably reach gamecube numbers then.

I would not be at all shocked if they got GameCube numbers this generation. I don't think Wii Fit U is going to set the world on fire, nor the other two.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

Super Mario 64?

That was 17 years ago.

 

[DrNeroCF]

Michael 'Wrong Way' Pachter strikes again!

 

[Huff]

I don't think it's that tough of a prediction to make that the wiiu is in deep shit and not even the marios/karts/ect. can save it from vita/gamecube status

Unable to recover from? maybe maybe not

 

[Glass Rebel]

Clearly only 4D Mario could replicate the success of Mario 64.

 

[pawelranger]

Wait, people in this thread still think 3DS is doing good? Are you serious?

Nintendo had to massively cut software forecasts from 70 million to 50 million after software sales for 3DS started to collapse after winter 2011.

3DS hardware is trending down every month and year over year. Nintendo's initial FY 2012 projections were 18.5 million, then halfway through the year they took it down to 17 million, then a few months ago down to 15 million. And they are likely going to miss that 15 million number too.

3DS is doing good in one region, Japan. Everywhere else it is struggling. It cannot prop up WiiU like GBA did to GCN. It won't match GBA hardware sales and it's software sales are so far much worse than GBA's were.

Nintendo had sold nearly 30 millions of 3DS in one year plus 8 months, so yes the 3DS is doing well, even if there 2012 FY projections were lowered, Japan sales are very impressive and above any expectations, with the next Pokemons and maybe a new 3DS design, the 3DS will do well this year.

 

[The Spoony Hou]

I would be worried about Nintendo, but all these wrong Pachter predictions ensure me that they have a bright future.

 

[Diddy Kong]

I don't know. You could attempt to refute his assertion as opposed to just deriding him as an idiot and calling it a day. If he's as dumb as you say, it shouldn't be difficult to counter his observation.



Why would they be banned? They generate lots of conversation. Honestly, this is a serious question: why do you think that threads about Pachter's media sound bites should be regarded as a bannable offense?

- I mostly respond in his threads regarding Nintendo and for the most part it's always doomed vs. not doomed as well as they'll be fine once their games come out, so I tend not to bother making the same points every time. It's no secret that the Wii-U isn't doing good atm. Nintendo had their big direct but that isn't going to make everyone go out and buy one right away. People are going to wait until these titles are released before they purchase one. Now if they still have poor sales after this holiday when they've released some heavy hitters it would be a different story, but this is just another preposterous statement by him.

- Most if not all Pachter threads are basically GAF vs. Pachter. What's the point in cluttering up the boards filled with "lol patcher" , "why does he get paid to do this?" etc

Sorry I'm on my phone, no multi quote.

 

[AZ Greg]

I would be worried about Nintendo, but all these wrong Pachter predictions ensure me that they have a bright future.

This joke keeps getting better!

 

[Sola Scriptura]

... Honestly I don't see why anyone who considers himself to be a real gamer would want it to survive. ...

1. What, precisely, is your definition of a "real gamer"?
2. Are owners of Nintendo hardware automatically precluded from being part of said definition?

 

[Steve Youngblood]

I don't think it's that tough of a prediction to make that the wiiu is in deep shit and not even the marios/karts/ect. can save it from vita/gamecube status

Unable to recover from? maybe maybe not

Yeah. He could very well end up being wrong, but this is hardly some ridiculously hyperbolic assessment of the current situation, unless it's literally meant to infer the end of Nintendo at large. That would be a harder pill to swallow, but that's not how I'm really reading the statement.

 

[?oe?oe]

Nintendo will be around next generation, they still have a long way to go before they get Sega'd. They are already planning and testing their "handheld/console hybrid"... seems like a logical step for Nintendo. If they put all their resources into one machine, it could be interesting.

 

[jstripes]

Missing every Single sales target even after they are constantly revised downwards is not sustaining itself

It hasn't cratered nearly as bad as it could have. I'm not saying sales are good, but it's not in joke territory like Vita, so it has a better chance of recovery. Pokemon is is also as close as you can get to a guarantee to give it a boost.

 

[Cheebo]

Nintendo had sold nearly 30 millions of 3DS in one year plus 8 months, so yes the 3DS is doing well, even if there 2012 FY projections were lowered, Japan sales are very impressive and above any expectations, with the next Pokemons and maybe a new 3DS design, the 3DS will do well this year.

Then why have software sales been so awful? Lowering by 20 million is incredibly bad. Only one single third title has sold over 500k (and just barely) in the west and its a iOS port. 3Ds situation in the west is not close to being good right now.

 

[Pineconn]

Nintendo is finished. There's nothing that can help it survive. By the end of the year Iwata will be on his knees right before Microsoft and Sony offices desperately asking for his company's assets to be bought. No one wants to play Mario anymore, Wii and DS are proven fads. While other companies reinvented genres and built new exciting franchises Nintendo kept recycling the same games all over again with zero innovation. Honestly I don't see why anyone who considers himself to be a real gamer would want it to survive. Nintendo is pitiful in its attempts to stay relevant, it was lucky a few times before but that's it. Its reign is finally over, a new era of gaming has begun.

I consider myself pretty good at telling what is a joke post and what isn't, but I'm just not sure this time...

I'm in the same boat. It's at the perfect level of absurdity.

 

[Maximus.]

I don't want to see Nintendo fade away and disappear, but they have made some bad missteps. They should have released a system capable or close to what the next ps or Xbox will be visibly capable of. There online infrastructure needs work, games tied to a system and not an account is ridiculous. I don't know why, but their relationship with third parties has been garbage, even with the Wii, since they haven't scored any of the big titles these guys make. I want to see Nintendo succeed, but they need to be proactive and fix some of their shit. Also, where are the VC games for the 3ds!? System has been out for ages and there's barely anything available.

 

[Huff]

Yeah. He could very well end up being wrong, but this is hardly some ridiculously hyperbolic assessment of the current situation, unless it's literally meant to infer the end of Nintendo at large. That would be a harder pill to swallow, but that's not how I'm really reading the statement.

too many feelings

 

[Vane_MagicCity]

I don't know how you got Paper Mario for $20 but that is not indicative of software sales at all. The game is the best selling Paper Mario game to date.

Is it really? Wow, that's crazy because it's the worst Paper Mario to date. I made sure to tell them what I thought of the game on Club Nintendo since they misused the CN data for Super Paper Mario and made this turd.

 

[DjRoomba]

3D Mario has not historically proven as strong a system seller as NSMB. We will see, though.

I dont think NSMBU is different enough from the Wii game to be a system seller. Same with Wii Fit U. What is a system seller for Wii U is a strong lineup of strong, appeal to all ages games such as 3D Mario

 

[jaxpunk]

Patcher shakes the bag of stupid and gaf jumps.


Shocking!

 

[The Mana Legend]

Is it really? Wow, that's crazy because it's the worst Paper Mario to date. I made sure to tell them what I thought of the game on Club Nintendo since they misused the CN data for Super Paper Mario and made this turd.

Good, then I'll counter act your survey by saying Best Paper Mario to date!

 

[ari]

This dude said the 3ds and wii was fucked and the ps3 and vita respectfully will destroy the Nintendo systems. Fuck this dude. How is he still getting threads made about what he says? How do he still have a job? What a hack. He will be saying the same shit in about two weeks so have something to write about.