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Pachter: Wii U a "mistake Nintendo may never recover from"
- Thread starter shinobi602
- Start date
V
Vilix
Unconfirmed Member
If Nintendo, with 20 billion in cash reserves, can't recover then they don't deserve to.
Chû Totoro;47889998 said:
Oh yeah, definitely. otherwise you'd be fired. But this isn't his job, he doesn't have to analyze extensively to see, he can just pull shit out of his ass because the media asks him to. So there's not much valid reason to say "when will he shut up" or something like that.
I think that's coming true!
Herb Alpert
Banned
each week Pachter is a step higher.
In 2 months he will reveal that Iwata buys and sells babies' organs.
Yeah, yeah, Mike, Nintendo is dead, we know.
In 2 months he will reveal that Iwata buys and sells babies' organs.
Yeah, yeah, Mike, Nintendo is dead, we know.
Steve Youngblood
Member
No. He gets paid to provide analysis to paying clients of Wedbush Morgan that doesn't make its way onto the internet for free.
I assume a Nintendo Direct, he's just getting something out of his pocket, it just looks dodgy when looped.
Bel_Air_Jeff
Banned
This guy is a complete idiot
The "inevitable" or the "he's right they won't revover" are the worst kind of posts. Let the doubt play his part.
It's like you haven't been watching what's been happening to 3rd party support on Nintendo consoles for the last three generations. It hasn't been good. The vast majority of Nintendo's profits and share growth has resulted from its own efforts, with little to do with 3rd parties.
The only reason Nintendo hit huge with the Wii was due to some extremely appropriate software to coincide with a blue ocean idea. Now that they don't have that, because it's not easy to accomplish that generation after generation, they're going to struggle but probably turn a profit in the end.
Am I saying they're in great shape? No. I'm not delusional. What I am saying is that tying it to their difficulties with 3rd parties is a bit off, 'cause that's been the status quo for quite a while now.
CadetMahoney
Member
The wii U just needs some of that secret sauce.
all over Pachters smelly face.
Baconsammy
Banned
Pachter guessed 750k Wii Us sold in December. He overestimated by about 350k. I thought 100k was his way of ensuring he'd never overshoot the mark again, and then 57k happened in a rare month for NPDs that included an extra week of sales. Safe to say no one really predicted the Wii U would be this big of a bomb.
Diddy Kong
Banned
He really is dumb. Nintendo to have an amazing recovery confirmed.
MadOdorMachine
No additional functions
I think that would be for the best tbh. From both a business and consumer standpoint, it's starting to make sense. I've spent $600 (launch 3DS & Wii U) for machines that are primarily for Nintendo games. For comparison, I spent $400 ($200 less) for a Wii and DS at launch. Consumers aren't going to continue to do that especially if there isn't some compelling gameplay hook to lure them in like Wii & DS. In fact, the signs are there that they have already given up on that and gone elsewhere.
Right now, it makes more sense for them to put all their games on one system - I prefer a hybrid choice. It will also be easier for Nintendo to support one system and just focus on that especially since consumers have shown they buy a Nintendo system in conjunction with a competitor system. I don't even know if it's possible, but it would be clutch if they could scale down that guts of Wii U and put it in a handheld by 2015. If they did that and fixed their DD account management, I think it may help. They could at least use something like that to tide them over until they had reason to release another dedicated console. As it stands right now, with the Wii U, they don't.
By this logic then the Wii U should have sold 500k in January right? I mean he did predict the Wii U would be about 120k or so....
yeah...
Any professional advisors closer? Sounds like Pachter was on point.
-Pyromaniac-
Member
the gif? saw it on 4chan. The actual dick rubbing? Not sure. Looks like a nintendo direct.
phoeniks314
Banned
Baconsammy
Banned
Depends on whether or not you think his prediction of 100k was meant to be positive or negative.
Steve Youngblood
Member
I honestly don't understand the intent of posts like this. What -- besides not liking Michael Pachter or what he's saying here -- makes his analysis so egregious. I can see having a different take than him on what's about to happen, but is it really necessary to insult his intelligence and proceed to not even argue against his observation outside of professing that he's always so off the mark that the opposite occurs?
Pachter is horrible at prediction. Nothing but reactionary comments coming out of his mouth.
News that Wii U preorders are sold out? Pachter: Wii U sold out through April.
News that Wii U sales are very bad? Pachter: Nintendo is doomed.
Basically, Pachter reads the news and extrapolates without deeper analysis.
News that Wii U preorders are sold out? Pachter: Wii U sold out through April.
News that Wii U sales are very bad? Pachter: Nintendo is doomed.
Basically, Pachter reads the news and extrapolates without deeper analysis.
There is a bandwagon. Some people jump on board. I don't like it either, nor do I appreciate the fascination GAF has with the guy (though I suspect it has something to do with calling an alleged authority figure 'stupid').
Chû Totoro
Member
oh ok. I'm just barking after him for nothing then... if it's not his job, please media people, don't ask him such things.
And yeah
I'm kind of surprised Nintendo hasn't been much more proactive with this. They already sell Nintendo toys. They already sell video games. Their brand new video game console has the NFC reader.
I'm not saying he's a great business mind, but if Bobby Kotick was in charge of Nintendo, does anyone doubt what Nintendo would be selling, right now?
Yearly sequels and expansion packs desperate to mantain their popularity. /snark
Nope
Overly positive = more negative
Overly negative = more postive
That's Pachter Rule.
for some reason all I could think of is
Fell deeds awake: fire and slaughter! Spear shall be shaken, shield be splintered, a sword-day, a red day, ere the sun rises! Ride now, ride now! Ride for ruin and the worlds ending! Death! Death! Forth WiiU Owners!
This is honestly where I thought they were heading this generation, from the start. Not sure why it's taking so long. The system is perfect for it.
BobTheFork
Member
No we haven't but with the Wii, when they didn't have the biggest hits or possible system sellers out at the beginning, they had many more consoles sold.
And just like the 3DS after 8-9 months the WiiU will have games also. Nintendo is just REALLY slow when it comes to bringing the GOOD games to its systems.
Glass Rebel
Member
The third-party situation is coming back to bite them in the ass though. Or at least Nintendo's unwillingness or inability to respond to it. They will have a hard time providing two constant streams of software for two platforms by themselves and I am not entirely sure if they're appropriately expanding.
c'mon son
check your snarkiness detector
Schnozberry
Member
Hard to argue with it. Even if they just go with NFC based Pokemon cards, it will end up printing money in short order.
They're expanding. But that's a very risky process and takes a lot of care. There's really nothing they could do about the 3rd party situation, particularly in the West. I think the 3DS and Wii U are just hitting during a very transitional period in general for the industry, which makes me wonder how well the PS4 and Durango are going to do unless they pull something really clever and distinct off.
I don't know why some are complaining about Pachter. His predictions are almost always spot on. You just need to know how to read his predictions.
Formula goes like this:
(positive/negative)Pachter prediction * -1 = True prediction
Example:
Pachter predicts Wii U will be sold out until March. Positive Pachter prediction. Let us put this in the formula to get the truth:
Positive Pachter prediction * -1 = Negative Pachter prediction. True prediction is that Wii U will not sell out until March. Good prediction Pachter!
Formula goes like this:
(positive/negative)Pachter prediction * -1 = True prediction
Example:
Pachter predicts Wii U will be sold out until March. Positive Pachter prediction. Let us put this in the formula to get the truth:
Positive Pachter prediction * -1 = Negative Pachter prediction. True prediction is that Wii U will not sell out until March. Good prediction Pachter!
Wait, people in this thread still think 3DS is doing good? Are you serious?
Nintendo had to massively cut software forecasts from 70 million to 50 million after software sales for 3DS started to collapse after winter 2011.
3DS hardware is trending down every month and year over year. Nintendo's initial FY 2012 projections were 18.5 million, then halfway through the year they took it down to 17 million, then a few months ago down to 15 million. And they are likely going to miss that 15 million number too.
3DS is doing good in one region, Japan. Everywhere else it is struggling. It cannot prop up WiiU like GBA did to GCN. It won't match GBA hardware sales and it's software sales are so far much worse than GBA's were.
Nintendo had to massively cut software forecasts from 70 million to 50 million after software sales for 3DS started to collapse after winter 2011.
3DS hardware is trending down every month and year over year. Nintendo's initial FY 2012 projections were 18.5 million, then halfway through the year they took it down to 17 million, then a few months ago down to 15 million. And they are likely going to miss that 15 million number too.
3DS is doing good in one region, Japan. Everywhere else it is struggling. It cannot prop up WiiU like GBA did to GCN. It won't match GBA hardware sales and it's software sales are so far much worse than GBA's were.
Jezbollah
Member
This thread reminds me - has that show/podcast regarding Neogaf seen release yet?
I know from when I used to work with fund managers in an investment management company that if there was analysts who were so wayward and flipflopping on their "analysis" (something Pachter gets paid to do) they would be ridiculed just as much in the City than they would be on internet message boards...
I know from when I used to work with fund managers in an investment management company that if there was analysts who were so wayward and flipflopping on their "analysis" (something Pachter gets paid to do) they would be ridiculed just as much in the City than they would be on internet message boards...
There are tons of guys like Pachter all over sports "journalism." But since Sports is entertainment, no one really is all that bothered when they get things wrong because it's not "supposed" to be taken seriously and the people who actually make decisions (managers, bookies, sports bettors) aren't listening to them anyway. Pachter, though, reports on Gaming from a business perspective claiming to have "analysis", though, and because of that there's both a higher expectation that someone actually know what they're talking about as well as the ability to go back and check their work.
nordique
Member
Yeah, pretty much. It could be a huge thing with the kiddies.
Skylanders is not even a blip in my life, and I had no idea how big it really is.
Its absolutely massive.
Disney is jumping on board with their new IP and Pokémon would be huge if it happened.
Well, it's certainly looking like an extremely uphill battle to turn the console around. To call it a mistake Nintendo may never recover from is a bit much.
Iwata: (laughs)
Iwata: (laughs)
Hmm. Nah, I think people just like to call a professional analyst 'stupid.' It's fun, after all, to feel smarter than a professional.
Yes, they did have a horrible lineup the last half of 2012 though. For some reasons nintendo failed to get out big games like animal crossing to drive sales. They are now having those in 2013.. In the west 3ds is going to have luigis mansion, mario golf, mario and luigi rpg, animal crossing and most importantly pokemon
'going to have' means you're assuming that those titles will drive adoption massively in the West, no?
Disagree. Everyone felt like they're smarter than Nintendo's Wii U branding team and it ended up feeling awful!
Yes i would think so given the appeal of those titles to the kids audience.
Disagree. Everyone felt like they're smarter than Nintendo's Wii U branding team and it ended up feeling awful!
Haha. Let's agree to disagree, shall we? =)
Understood. I'm just saying it's an assumption. People assumed NSMB U would drive Wii U adoption significantly, for example.