Support NeoGAF

[AranhaHunter]

Uh?
No it's the opposite, to reverse Vita's fortunes what is needed is precisely a new IP which unexpectedly becomes a huge hit, not the usual old series which have very little growth potential and can only go down or stay flat in term of sales.
Vita needs the new Monster Hunter or something in a different genre but with the same impact. I don't think that Soul Sacrifice will be that game though.

What he is saying is if Vita got a DQXI or a MHP4 or a FFType 1/XV or a MGS V it could possibly reverse its fortune and raise its baseline as well as attract more devs to the now higher userbase. An exclusive from one of those franchises, especially the first 3, would be much more likely to accomplish such a task than SS. A statement I vehemently agree with.

 

[electroplankton]

I hardly think it matters if they've got "growth potential". A million seller is a million seller, and an exclusive million seller from a proven brand is a far more reliable than attempting to conjure a brand new cultural phenomenon from the ether.

I'd argue Vita needs both.

Also because those games (Monster Hunter, Brain Training, Nintendogs) were all sleeper hits, so they were selling not so much, but at a steady pace. If Vita finds something like that this Summer, let's say, the phenomenon could explode during holiday season, maybe a bit too late. But this doesn't happen often anyway.

 

[Kysen]

I can see SS either being the biggest disappointment or the biggest surprise sales wise. Sony has been putting everything behind this game, its make or break. Hopefully it doesn't fall flat like the COD gamble before Christmas.

 

[BadWolf]

I can see SS either being the biggest disappointment or the biggest surprise sales wise. Sony has been putting everything behind this game, its make or break. Hopefully it doesn't fall flat like the COD gamble before Christmas.

The difference here is that SS seems to be a legitimately excellent game.

 

[Kyon]

The difference here is that SS seems to be a legitimately excellent game.

As Sony are actually going all out with advertisement

 

[Takao]

I can see SS either being the biggest disappointment or the biggest surprise sales wise. Sony has been putting everything behind this game, its make or break. Hopefully it doesn't fall flat like the COD gamble before Christmas.

Call of Duty apparently did quite well despite being awful.

I'm as ashamed with my species as you are.

 

[Father_Brain]

Vita needs the new Monster Hunter or something in a different genre but with the same impact. I don't think that Soul Sacrifice will be that game though.

Not really. MHP's success was definitely lightning in a bottle (new million-selling franchises are incredibly rare in Japan, let alone multimillion-sellers), but the extent to which it was tends to be overstated in these threads. MHP1 launched less than a year into PSP's lifespan, in a far healthier ecosystem than what Vita has now, and ended up selling around 670K with strong legs. It didn't materialize out of nowhere to multimillion-unit sales at a point when PSP was regularly failing to break 10K per week.

 

[Stumpokapow]

stop peeing on each other, the level of fanboy accusations across the site has been far too high the last few weeks.

 

[Mr_Antimatter]

You know, given recent hype from indie developers for the platform, it makes me wonder if what we will see finally push the platform isn't the next MH, but rather the next minecraft.

Would probably be cheaper to buy that off an indie dev as well.

I do have high hopes for SS though. First MH type game i've ever got the urge to purchase.

 

[Takao]

You know, given recent hype from indie developers for the platform, it makes me wonder if what we will see finally push the platform isn't the next MH, but rather the next minecraft.

Would probably be cheaper to buy that off an indie dev as well.

I do have high hopes for SS though. First MH type game i've ever got the urge to purchase.

PlayStation C.A.M.P. to save Vita? I think not, unfortunately.

Sony has had success stories on the PS1 (in Japan) with indie games via the Net Yaraoze stuff, but that time has since passed. Tokyo Jungle will probably get a Vita spinoff eventually though, lol.

 

[electroplankton]

Not really. MHP's success was definitely lightning in a bottle, but the extent to which it was tends to be overstated in these threads. MHP1 launched less than a year into PSP's lifespan, in a far healthier ecosystem than what Vita has now, and ended up selling around 670K with strong legs. It didn't materialize out of nowhere to multimillion-unit sales at a point when PSP was regularly failing to break 10K per week.

Also, the first MHP sold well through the budget edition (almost 300k units, and 162k the reprint). MHP2nd sold just 1.7mln units in 2007. It was MHP2nG that really created the phenomenon, selling over 2.4mln units, with the budget version over 1mln units. But the environment was already quite healthy and PSP was becoming popular thanks to the first revision, and games like Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, yearly Gundam, etc.

 

[Kyon]

Will Senran Kagura selling 120k get a new thread tho?

stop peeing on each other, the level of fanboy accusations across the site has been far too high the last few weeks.

Oop.

Gather us.

OT: awwwww cute little doggy avatar :3 <3

 

[Road]

N = number of releases with 200K >= sales < 1000k
M = number of months the system is in the market.
AVG = N / M, number of releases per month.

I chose an arbitrary cutoff for the life of the dead systems, for instance, 10 years for the PS2 and 3 years for the Dreamcast.

List is ordered by the average.

             N      M     AVG
PS2         209    120   1.74
NDS         119     84   1.42
3DS          26     24   1.08
PS3          62     75   0.83
PSP          63     86   0.73
WII          44     72   0.61
GC           32     63   0.51
SDC          13     36   0.36
PSV           2     14   0.14
360           3     84   0.04

The order shouldn't be a surprise except for maybe: PS3 ahead of Wii and PSP.

Possible conclusions:

- the most obvious, having both huge million-selling games and a constant stream of average ones, as shown by the PS2 and DS, is the best;
- huge million-selling games apparently sell hardware better than a stream of 200k+ games as shown by the PSP and Wii compared to the PS3.
- and another obvious one, you're dead if you have neither.

Just putting some numbers to something that is repeated constantly with words only.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Come on Vita I'm rooting for you!

I just want a Final Fantasy type-1 or Portable MGS again ;----;

 

[Jinfash]

Also, the first MHP sold well through the budget edition (almost 300k units, and 162k the reprint). MHP2nd sold just 1.7mln units in 2007. It was MHP2nG that really created the phenomenon, selling over 2.4mln units, with the budget version over 1mln units. But the environment was already quite healthy and PSP was becoming popular thanks to the first revision, and games like Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, yearly Gundam, etc.

How's going from 462k to 1.7m not a phenomenon as well?

 

[Spiegel]

N = number of releases with 200K >= sales < 1000k
M = number of months the system is in the market.
AVG = N / M, number of releases per month.

I chose an arbitrary cutoff for the life of the dead systems, for instance, 10 years for the PS2 and 3 years for the Dreamcast.

List is ordered by the average.

             N      M     AVG
PS2         209    120   1.74
NDS         119     84   1.42
3DS          26     24   1.08
PS3          62     75   0.83
PSP          63     86   0.73
WII          44     72   0.61
GC           32     63   0.51
SDC          13     36   0.36
PSV           2     14   0.14
360           3     84   0.04

The order shouldn't be a surprise except for maybe: PS3 ahead of Wii and PSP.

Possible conclusions:

- the most obvious, having both huge million-selling games and a constant stream of average ones, as shown by the PS2 and DS, is the best;
- huge million-selling games apparently sell hardware better than a stream of 200k+ games as shown by the PSP and Wii compared to the PS3.
- and another obvious one, you're dead if you have neither.

Just putting some numbers to something that is repeated constantly with words only.

Another conclusion is that 100k-200k selling games are also very important. At least looking at the psp.

Wii - 26
DS - 125
PSP - 106
PS3 - 60
3DS - 18
PS2 - 210

 

[AranhaHunter]

PS2 ahead of DS is a major surprise to me as well. PS2 was truly a beast for 3rd party publishers.

Another conclusion is that 100k-200k selling games are also very important. At least looking at the psp.

If they come out often enough, yep.

 

[Father_Brain]

How's going from 462k to 1.7m not a phenomenon as well?

462K is the total for the two budget releases. The original release of MHP1 sold about 669K.

 

[Jinfash]

462K is the total for the two budget releases. The original release of MHP1 sold about 669K.

That makes more sense.

 

[Exterminieren]

Aww, is Kyon going to be sitting this next Media Create out? Shame, I was looking forward to the reactions. :/

 

[Takao]

Come on Vita I'm rooting for you!

I just want a Final Fantasy type-1 or Portable MGS again ;----;

Unless Sony ponies up some serious cash only one of those had potential to happen. Even before Vita's flop it seemed KojiPro were no longer interested in doing original handheld games, but rather just ports.

A shame they sacrificed Nojiri's career for Never Alive than another Metal Gear Ac!d ...

 

[ksamedi]

In this industry, one big hit can change everything. PSV can sell If someone can manage to create one.

 

[Exterminieren]

In this industry, one big hit can change everything. PSV can sell If someone can manage to create one.

Hits don't often just come out of nowhere, though.

Also, if Vita becomes less attractive to develop for, it becomes less likely that this hit is developed for Vita as opposed to for 3DS, or even for Gree.

 

[ksamedi]

Hits don't often just come out of nowhere, though.

Also, if Vita becomes less attractive to develop for, it becomes less likely that this hit is developed for Vita as opposed to for 3DS, or even for Gree.

I agree. Sony is the one who should create that hit. Once momentum grows third parties will jump in and create a healthy ecosystem. But Sony has not been able to do so for years now. Not even with the PSP. They got lucky with monster Hunter.

 

[Father_Brain]

In this industry, one big hit can change everything. PSV can sell If someone can manage to create one.

Few things are literally impossible, but the odds of this happening are vanishingly small. See my post above about MH.

Looking at most of the major Japanese third parties, their remaining future support is token (Konami), multiplatform (SE, Tecmo Koei, Namco Bandai), or literally nonexistent (Capcom). Given the weakness of Sony as a Japanese first party, it's hard to see where any major hit could come from if Soul Sacrifice doesn't explode.

I agree. Sony is the one who should create that hit. Once momentum grows third parties will jump in and create a healthy ecosystem. But Sony has not been able to do so for years now. Not even with the PSP. They got lucky with monster Hunter.

Which is precisely Sony's problem. Since the PS1 days, they've never really had to build momentum for their systems themselves in order to earn third-party support; instead, third parties have jumped on board pre-launch based on the presumed dominance of the PlayStation brand. Vita is the first platform where the "if you build it and put a PS logo on it, they will come" strategy (and that was indeed SCE's strategy, as Yoshida more or less admitted in that Gamasutra interview last fall) has outright failed.

 

[Mr_Antimatter]

PlayStation C.A.M.P. to save Vita? I think not, unfortunately.

Sony has had success stories on the PS1 (in Japan) with indie games via the Net Yaraoze stuff, but that time has since passed. Tokyo Jungle will probably get a Vita spinoff eventually though, lol.

Different times. With the internet, indies are getting far more exposure then they were in the ps1 days. Hence why something like minecraft can become a multimillion seller on multiple platforms, while the same game released on the ps1 would have been lucky to break even.

And again, hey it is cheaper. You could spend $5million buying a major exclusives from a big developer, or spend the same money to buy ten exclusives from indie devs.

 

[electroplankton]

Different times. With the internet, indies are getting far more exposure then they were in the ps1 days. Hence why something like minecraft can become a multimillion seller on multiple platforms, while the same game released on the ps1 would have been lucky to break even.

And again, hey it is cheaper. You could spend $5million buying a major exclusives from a big developer, or spend the same money to buy ten exclusives from indie devs.

It's also true that indie games that found a huge success were on PC or smartphone, devices that all people have. Different story if you have to convince people to buy another device.

 

[FoneBone]

It's also true that indie games that found a huge success were on PC or smartphone, devices that all people have. Different story if you have to convince people to buy another device.

Agreed. Indie support is great to have, but I don't think it can be expected to drive hardware sales to any significant extent.

 

[Denzel Washington]

I can see SS either being the biggest disappointment or the biggest surprise sales wise. Sony has been putting everything behind this game, its make or break. Hopefully it doesn't fall flat like the COD gamble before Christmas.

COD is on track to be the best selling vita game

 

[donny2112]

your citizens need 2 handhelds.

Were GameCube fans like this during the PS2/GCN era?

"Come on Nintendo sell, sell, sell. PS2 needs competition. Japan, your citizens need 2 consoles."

I don't recall it being like that, but then I wasn't on GAF for the early years of that gen.

Note:
Name of poster removed on purpose, because it's not about him. I just really do not recall this way of thinking coming up much, if at all, during the GCN/PS2 era. I also wasn't in online forums as much, either, so that could be why I missed it, if it was there. Just trying to figure out if this is really a new attitude or just a different generation picking up an older similar attitude.

 

[DaBoss]

Were GameCube fans like this during the PS2/GCN era?

"Come on Nintendo sell, sell, sell. PS2 needs competition. Japan, your citizens need 2 consoles."

I don't recall it being like that, but then I wasn't on GAF for the early years of that gen.

Note:
Name of poster removed on purpose, because it's not about him. I just really do not recall this way of thinking coming up much, if at all, during the GCN/PS2 era. I also wasn't in online forums as much, either, so that could be why I missed it, if it was there. Just trying to figure out if this is really a new attitude or just a different generation picking up an older similar attitude.

Well that is just one poster, not GAF in general. And to answer that, I would assume tech has something to do with it.

 

[Father_Brain]

COD is on track to be the best selling vita game

And yet Vita still managed to sell worse in the US last holiday (probably Europe as well, though there aren't any numbers) than PSP did a year earlier, despite some very reasonably priced bundles for both Declassified and Liberation.

As ACIII:L also proves, there's still enough of a market for dudebro spinoffs on handhelds for such titles to turn a profit, provided they're developed on a reasonable budget. But the size of that market in 2012/2013 is just too small to provide much momentum for an entire platform; unfortunately, Sony bet the platform's entire future outside Japan on the exact opposite conclusion.

 

[Laguna]

Were GameCube fans like this during the PS2/GCN era?

"Come on Nintendo sell, sell, sell. PS2 needs competition. Japan, your citizens need 2 consoles."

I don't recall it being like that, but then I wasn't on GAF for the early years of that gen.

Note:
Name of poster removed on purpose, because it's not about him. I just really do not recall this way of thinking coming up much, if at all, during the GCN/PS2 era. I also wasn't in online forums as much, either, so that could be why I missed it, if it was there. Just trying to figure out if this is really a new attitude or just a different generation picking up an older similar attitude.

No, I don´t think so. It´s similar to how some fans try to hide their bias and say "please release it on" PS3/X360 or PSN/XBL instead of beeing honest and just name the platform they really want the game to be or play. Also there already is a lot of competition going on anyway with smartphones and tablets, with Japanese publishers like SQEX who already invest in this segment of the market.

 

[saichi]

EDIT: I misread

 

[Scum]

Wed is going to be so much fun!

PSV - 75,000 / SS - 281,000
WiiU - 8,000

:V

A lot of publishers are looking to expand the idea behind project ten dollar.

It may not be straight activation codes, but many want significant content locked on used discs. It doesn't have to be system level to be annoying.

Who knows if it will pan out or if they even end up doing it, but some publishers (and not all of them western) want to go for a long walk in some dark woods in 2014.

D:

 

[Graphics Horse]

Vita set to overtake Wii U YTD??

 

[Nekki]

Wed is going to be so much fun!

PSV - 75,000 / SS - 281,000
WiiU - 8,000

:V

Sure, SS will open at 280k...

 

[darkside31337]

Vita set to overtake Wii U YTD??

If somehow not this week then it'll be next.

Better question to ask is when does the Wii U YTD overtake the Vita YTD after this happens.

Spoiler

if it ever does!

 

[electroplankton]

Were GameCube fans like this during the PS2/GCN era?

"Come on Nintendo sell, sell, sell. PS2 needs competition. Japan, your citizens need 2 consoles."

I don't recall it being like that, but then I wasn't on GAF for the early years of that gen.

Note:
Name of poster removed on purpose, because it's not about him. I just really do not recall this way of thinking coming up much, if at all, during the GCN/PS2 era. I also wasn't in online forums as much, either, so that could be why I missed it, if it was there. Just trying to figure out if this is really a new attitude or just a different generation picking up an older similar attitude.

I was thinking the same. That's why I was saying that one handheld in the market can easily be a first-best situation; first, there's outside, but direct, competition in form of smartphones and browser games (that really caught a lot of projects, in particular small-size ones, from handheld dedicated platforms); second, 3DS is really attracting all Japanese developers, and also the support we were used to see on PSP (the other side of the Apple), while Western developers lack, but they would lack also on Vita.

 

[BlackJace]

If somehow not this week then it'll be next.

Better question to ask if when does the Wii U YTD overtake the Vita YTD after this happens.

Spoiler

if it ever does!

You honestly think the Vita will be seeing "healthy" sales like next week throughout the year?

 

[darkside31337]

You honestly think the Vita will be seeing "healthy" sales like next week throughout the year?

No but I don't see the Wii U getting any better any time soon.

 

[electroplankton]

No but I don't see the Wii U getting any better any time soon.

Probably we'll see more than 10k at the end of March.

 

[zroid]

man, whatever happens on Wednesday, it's going to be awesome

 

[BlackJace]

No but I don't see the Wii U getting any better any time soon.

I'd bank on summer as its pickup.

 

[Moor-Angol]

man, whatever happens on Wednesday, it's going to be awesome

and next Wednesday will be funny too

i'm preparing some popcorn

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Maybe Famitsu will post an early Vita report in the next 8 hours or so.

This week's thread will be great. I can already tell.

Exactly. :lol

Hold on to your wigs.

 

[DaBoss]

and next Wednesday will be funny too

i'm preparing some popcorn

The popcorn is going to get stale by Wednesday.

I personally don't see why the Vita (or any console/handheld really) doing well is going to cause people to be upset.

 

[Moor-Angol]

The popcorn is going to get stale by Wednesday.

I personally don't see why the Vita (or any console/handheld really) doing well is going to cause people to be upset.

it's easy : fanboys can't accept that another handheld is becoming popular and they don't know what to say after every week pumping up the "Vita is doomed" discussion

 

[donny2112]

The popcorn is going to get stale by Wednesday.

I was going to post basically this. "Your popcorn's going to go bad by then." :lol

"Vita is doomed"

Wait. You think this will be more than a temporary boost before going back to basically the previous numbers after some time (weeks/months)?

If so, what's the reasoning?

 

[electroplankton]

Maybe Famitsu will post an early Vita report in the next 8 hours or so.

Why you think so? Because of like "second highest week for the console"? Usually there's a reason why Famitsu report figures before the regular release.