• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Media Create Sales: Week 8, 2013 (Feb 18 - Feb 24)

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
18,552
8
0
I'm just stating my opinion about the numbers that are circulating now on the Internet.
yes but it's strange to see you optimist about the Wii U and claiming "fail" a possible 80K of Vita's HW numbers...or trying to not admit the very good result of Senran Kagura Vita version considering how well it seems to have done

and note that I find strange also other comments from other Gaffers as I mentioned few days ago when "everyone" was stating that "everyone" MUST be happy about Vita's comeback because of the videogame LOVE

;p
 

Father_Brain

Banned
Jun 7, 2004
22,707
0
0
34
New York, NY
75-80K would actually be pretty decent on its own. The problem, of course, is that price drop bumps can't be judged out of context, as they don't necessarily result in a significant, sustained sales boost.

Soul Sacrifice will sustain the bump to some extent next week, but after that... well, I'm still predicting sub-15K by the end of March and sub-10K by mid-April.
 

Dinda

Member
Feb 5, 2013
2,328
0
0
I think Tales of Hearts R will do more to sales. Soul Sacrifice is not doing well in the preorder charts, and it's a completely new IP. Even with the bundle, I don't see it doing a whole lot.
The Preorders doing badly? Thats too bad, i thought it had a good chance of being a decent hit. Well, let's see on Wednesday.
 

Skyzard

Banned
Jun 3, 2012
20,772
0
0
75-80K would actually be pretty decent on its own. The problem, of course, is that price drop bumps can't be judged out of context, as they don't necessarily result in a significant, sustained sales boost.

Soul Sacrifice will sustain the bump to some extent next week, but after that... well, I'm still predicting sub-15K by the end of March and sub-10K by mid-April.
Next week? Ohhhh yessss, don't have to wait as long to find out really.

Come on Japan, tax rebate gogo, your citizens need 2 handhelds.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
2
1,130
and note that I find strange also other comments from other Gaffers as I mentioned few days ago when "everyone" was stating that "everyone" MUST be happy about Vita's comeback because of the videogame LOVE

;p
No one said this though. Only one guy mentioned that people would be happy if the Vita sold good because of the videogame love. Other than that it was discussed more about why there would a reason not to be happy if Vita doing good, not that "everyone" had to be very happy for it (its possible to be indifferent about it too, i'm sure there are some who doesnt care much about the Vita, so they are neither happy or sad/angry even if it does good or bad). Unless i misunderstand what you mean?
 
Jan 28, 2010
6,073
0
0
ITALY
graphmag.wordpress.com
yes but it's strange to see you optimist about the Wii U and claiming "fail" a possible 80K of Vita's HW numbers...or trying to not admit the very good result of Senran Kagura Vita version considering how well it seems to have done

and note that I find strange also other comments from other Gaffers as I mentioned few days ago when "everyone" was stating that "everyone" MUST be happy about Vita's comeback because of the videogame LOVE

;p
I'm not optimistic about the Wii U. But not so pessimistic to claim it will perform worse than the GC. And I didn't claim any fail for Vita at 80k, just "not very good". I didn't say anything about the sales of SK Shinovi, also. I just joked with test_account replying to him as he often does, i.e. by asking many questions that are either rethoric or difficult to answer (because many of our ideas are based on dynamics that we are not sure of). Of course SK did very well if it sold above 100k, and this shows how the otaku machine is pretty strong on Vita, and developers can keep releasing similar games.
 

lunchwithyuzo

Banned
Jun 20, 2010
11,040
1
0
Isn't Persona it's own thing on the SMT universe? I mean... it's much bigger than any spin-off out there...
It's bigger, not out of the realm of the other Megatens. For those over 200k from the 32bit consoles on:

[PS1] Persona (391,566)
[SAT] Devil Summoner [355,656]
[PS2] Persona 4 (294,214)
[PS1] Persona 2: Innocent Sin (274,804)
[GBC] Devil Children: Black Book / Red Book (261,185)
[SAT] Devil Summoner: Soul Hackers (258,679)
[PS2] Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne (245,520)
[PSV] Persona 4 Golden (233,523)
[PS2] Persona 3 (210,319)
[PSP] Persona 3 Portable (208,877)
[PS1] Persona 2: Eternal Punishment (200,103)


I can't find FC/SFC sales though, so no telling if P1 is actually the best selling titles in the entire franchise.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
18,552
8
0
I'm not optimistic about the Wii U. But not so pessimistic to claim it will perform worse than th GC. And I didn't claim any fail for Vita at 80k, just "not very good". I didn't say anything about the sales of SK Shinovi, also. I just joked with test_account replying to him as he often does, i.e. by asking many questions that are either rethoric or difficult to answer (because many of our ideas are based on dynamics that we are not sure of).
Probably you must improve your jokin' skills because no one noticed this "tone" ;p
Btw, I think that for a system that average sells 8k (it did so for weeks) selling 10x HW pieces would be a good result. Not as stellar as the 3DS cut one, but good. It would mean also that there IS interest in the console (at the right price and with the right software); about the Wii U simply up to now it's not pessimistic foreseeing GC HW LTD numbers: it's selling worst than GC, so it could be seen as optimistic

No one said this though. Only one guy mentioned that people would be happy if the Vita sold good because of the videogame love. Other than that it was discussed more about why there would a reason not to be happy if Vita doing good, not that "everyone" had to be very happy for it. Unless i misunderstand what you mean?
well, someone said so ;p
and more than one said that Vita lovers are videogame lovers (a strange sentence, imho, as if 3DS lovers are...painting lovers? LOL)
and many said that PSX and PS2 monopoly was acceptable while 3DS one is not
and so on

nothing "bad", simply anyone says what he thinks and usually almost everyone of us has his own "tastes", and those arise also in the Sales age threads (where usually we should see a more objective approach probably)
 

Sammy Samusu

Member
Aug 3, 2009
19,285
1
0
Moga Village
Just that Soul Sacrifice will be the main game for a while and combined with the price cut this should give us a hint of what it can do. I hope they're pumping out the ads too over there.
Every system sold includes the demo, and I belive Sony is also giving 30 days of PSN+ for people who get the game.

They have TV ads, streams, events... Sony is definitely pushing it.
 

Road

Member
Jan 21, 2008
7,602
0
0
Brazil
sites.google.com
Persona? Shin Megami Tensei in the title or not, it's obviously a SMT spin off, especially when you look at the first two games.
It's bigger, not out of the realm of the other Megatens. For those over 200k from the 32bit consoles on:

[PS1] Persona (391,566)
[PS2] Persona 4 (294,214)
[PS2] Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne (245,520)

I can't find FC/SFC sales though, so no telling if P1 is actually the best selling titles in the entire franchise.
Megaten universe is a mess. I don't really know much about it. Anyway, we don't know if Persona 1 outsold MT/SMT right out of the gate. 15 years later, P4 has outsold SMTIII, yes. I guess it counts in the long run.

Monster Hunter Portable vs Monster Hunter console as well :p
I never considered the portable entries as spin-off. Isn't it basically just a port of the game with a special naming?

If you don't count the 10+million (probably more like 20+ million) pirated copies of Warcraft 3 then World of Warcraft > Warcraft RTS
That's an obvious example I couldn't think of. Same world, different gameplay, not numbered, an obvious spin-off. Thanks.

Puyo Puyo is a puzzle game spinoff of Madou Monogatari and the series is much more popular and successful than the main one.
I'd never heard of that connection. Thanks! Edit: Wait, so that game coming out, Sei Madou Monogatari, is actually from this. According to Wiki, the last one was released in 1998. That's a 15 year wait for a new one. So there's still hope for a new BoF in 2017.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
2
1,130
well, someone said so ;p
and more than one said that Vita lovers are videogame lovers (a strange sentence, imho, as if 3DS lovers are...painting lovers? LOL)
and many said that PSX and PS2 monopoly was acceptable while 3DS one is not
and so on

nothing "bad", simply anyone says what he thinks and usually almost everyone of us has his own "tastes", and those arise also in the Sales age threads (where usually we should see a more objective approach probably)
Hehe, well, i guess that the "videogame love" was just referring to that people who like video games in general could be happy if Vita succeed. Not just people who specifically likes Vita =)

About monopoly, do you mean that many people said it in this specific thread, or that people have said it before?
 

serplux

Member
Dec 27, 2012
3,994
0
0
Every system sold includes the demo, and I belive Sony is also giving 30 days of PSN+ for people who get the game.

They have TV ads, streams, events... Sony is definitely pushing it.
And yet it still has pretty low preorder numbers. I'm not sure why that is, to be honest.
 

Skyzard

Banned
Jun 3, 2012
20,772
0
0
Every system sold includes the demo, and I belive Sony is also giving 30 days of PSN+ for people who get the game.

They have TV ads, streams, events... Sony is definitely pushing it.
Oh that's great to hear thanks, should help it to stick hopefully a decent bit above what it was doing for a while.

You can't judge the Vita till its second price cut + system seller.
 

Afrit

Member
Dec 7, 2012
325
0
0
What we looking at for vita? 50 - 100k?
25-40k

The vita cut will be far more muted than the 3ds cut was, firstly its a much smaller cut just 5k yen instead of 10, secondly stores aparently have been discounting vita anyway for a while so the drop is effectively smaller still and finally some stores have done the full price drop a week early reducing the impact next week

And this is all without the question of its long term line up and desirability
I'd be surprised with 40K Vita next week especially if stores already started price dropping.
I don't think any more than 50k, the 3DS dropped 10,000 yen which was around 40% off.
Now this is interesting. I can't wait to see next week sales if Vita will sale more than 100k.

PS. Lol'd at WiiU.
100k would be amazing. That's not going to happen.
People believing Vita will suddenly reach 100k are crazy.
Only a FEW stores dropped the price, and only hardcore gamers knew about it, the official date is Feb 28.

On top of that, Sony has a new color, a new bundle and two hot games. If Vita sells 40k next week I'll be fucking done.

LOL Vita ain't doing anywhere near 100K. You are really being unrealistic with that prediction. I would love to eat crow and wish for Vita to sell 100k+ and then stabilize around 50K until the end of the year, but that ain't happening.

As others said, stores already dropped the price so the price drop won't have as big an impact. I predicted 25K, but now I'm going down to 20K for vita HW next week and sub 10k by April.
I think some people are underestimating Vita sales potential got next week. I mean, 25k? Don't forget that tomorrow there's two games from popular series along with bundles and a new color, on top of the official price cut. The combination of these things will get Vita higher than what most think, me thinks. People also underestimated 3DS sales before the price drop hit, and with the way Vita is, it's completely understandable to have low predictions.
That said, I'm expecting 70k-80k sold next week.
You're probably right, and that was probably one of my more foolish posts. 20K for next week still seems way too grim, though.
Phantasy Star and Senran Kagura are coming, it's going to sell much more than 40k.
This price cut isn't going to do anything. Unless Sony bombards the hell out of people with SS, this thing isn't getting above 35k.
I was expecting something more modest (~30k) but maybe the effect of price reduction will be stronger.
Didn't vita outsell the 3DS on launch week? Either way, I'm doubtful it'll outsell it next week, but my prediction of 20K is now starting to look ridiculous.
I'll predict 80k or so. Seems right.
80k seems outlandish.
I think pent up demand for the system will shoot it to around 50k. Senran Kagura and Ninja Gaiden will just be the beneficiaries of the price drop. The fun part will be PSO2 and Soul Sacrifice sales. 80k is possible, but I think closer to 60k is what will happen.
I agree with you though, 80k is not happening. I predicted 20k, which seems a little low now,but I'll stick with it.
That seems ridiculously high to me. Before the lines I would've placed 55k as my high-end estimate though, who knows for sure. If it really could reach sales like that before Soul Survivor then that puts them in a very healthy position from March forward.
So sell over 70-80k? It's possible. Most likely it's going to be at roughly 50-60k.
I'm expecting 60k for Vita and I can't see it doing better than 3DS.
I'm going with 63,794 units sold and I'd be totally chuffed with that. It'll still get comfortably outsold by the 3DS and it'll only get a week in the sun before it drops again, but, a bump is a bump. Those 'sold out' signs are awesome whether they sold 3 units or 30.
50-60k next week is what I'm guessing.

So, vita sales going to be above the average expectations at least?!
That need to be noted.
 

kswiston

Member
Mar 25, 2005
35,138
1
0
Canada
So, it begs the question: How many spin-offs have outsold the main series in the past?

Other than Donkey Kong->Mario, I mean.
Might and Magic -> Heroes of Might and Magic

To the point that Heroes is getting another standalone expansion in the spring while the main series has been dead for over 10 years.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
18,552
8
0
Hehe, well, i guess that the "videogame love" was just referring to that people who like video games in general could be happy if Vita succeed. Not just people who specifically likes Vita =)

About monopoly, do you mean that many people said it in this specific thread, or that people have said it before?
I don't remember if it was this thread or another recent one (probably this one), but a lot of people said so during the DS rpg explosion, for example.
Btw, doesn't matter. I'm not unhappy with Vita resurrection, I also anticipated it months ago (during November, when me and another Gaffers said that it was almost sure to see Vita selling better Jan-March than Oct-December in Japan (considering the new bunch of games and the probable (YaY!) price cut)
 

Father_Brain

Banned
Jun 7, 2004
22,707
0
0
34
New York, NY
I don't remember if it was this thread or another recent one (probably this one), but a lot of people said so during the DS rpg explosion, for example.
Btw, doesn't matter. I'm not unhappy with Vita resurrection, I also anticipated it months ago (during November, when me and another Gaffers said that it was almost sure to see Vita selling better Jan-March than Oct-December in Japan (considering the new bunch of games and the probable (YaY!) price cut)
Talk of a resurrection is a bit premature, TBH.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Sep 2, 2011
18,552
8
0
So, vita sales going to be above the average expectations at least?!
That need to be noted.
Just for the records:

Looking at previous post-cut bumps for ps3 and 3ds and looking at those sold out situations, I think that Vita will surprise positively more than onf Gaffer.

;)


Talk of a resurrection is a bit premature, TBH.
In long terms, of course.
In short terms, no: it will be the second/third best week of all time for the system; there will be a very good softwre results minimum; the next weeks will see new interesting releases that will help the system in selling decently for awhile. Vita Jan-March sales will be higher than its Oct-Dec sales (a period where usually sales are up a lot for holidays purhcases).
 

Currygan

at last, for christ's sake
Jul 7, 2012
34,740
2
0
London, England
You know I'm kind of wondering about the context of this GIF. Did one of those women think they killed him or something? The shocked faces at the end are what make the GIF for me.
you should ask Sammy Samusu, he's the one who posted it for the first time. If I have to bet, cheap camera work, horrible performances and the fact it could be intended as a serious scene scream Soap Opera and yeah, these girls are probably shocked the old man is still alive after they killed him. Maybe they're his evil daughters and he's a millionaire or something
 

extralite

Member
Jun 27, 2011
1,843
0
485
electrolit.net
Megaten universe is a mess. I don't really know much about it. Anyway, we don't know if Persona 1 outsold MT/SMT right out of the gate. 15 years later, P4 has outsold SMTIII, yes. I guess it counts in the long run.
It should be very likely that Persona outsold the three SMT games on SFC. Practically everything JRPG boosted greatly on PS1 and Saturn. Persona had the typical SMT gameplay but more anime cinematical elements, similar to Star Ocean and Tales.

Star Ocean numbers from geimin:

SFC スターオーシャン エニックス 1996/07/19 17万5861本
PS スターオーシャン セカンドストーリー エニックス 1998/07/30 70万0548本

Tales of Phantasia for SFC sold 212000, and ToDestiny, the first PS installment, sold 829000, both according to Wikipedia.

FF and DQ also got decent boosts on PS.

Mother 2/Eartbound sold 300000 according to Wikipedia. We have numbers for many JRPGs from the SNES era but not for SMT. They were probably not even that high for the individual releases (but got ported to a lot of different platforms). Or Megaten fans care less for numbers than those of other JRPGs (the Tales of Phantasia number is from Namco though).
 
75-80K would actually be pretty decent on its own. The problem, of course, is that price drop bumps can't be judged out of context, as they don't necessarily result in a significant, sustained sales boost.

Soul Sacrifice will sustain the bump to some extent next week, but after that... well, I'm still predicting sub-15K by the end of March and sub-10K by mid-April.
I think Vita will sustain 20k-ish numbers well into april, Tales of Hearts R, Steins;Gate, DOA5+ and Atelier Meruru, these are ports but they've proven more than once to be system sellers, and ofcourse One Piece Kaizoku Musou 2, not sure how this will do as its also on PS3 but I think it will positively surprise us.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
2
1,130
And yet it still has pretty low preorder numbers. I'm not sure why that is, to be honest.
I dont think we have any official pre-order numbers for Soul Sacrifice. Comgnet ranking doesnt necessarily indicate how things are in Japan overall. We know for example that One Piece Musou 2 has over 500k pre-orders (probably affected a bit by store pre-orders, but it shows that the pre-orders are strong, otherwise stores wouldnt order that much), while Comgnet has the PS3 version at 124 points (the Vita version is not to be seen). Project Diva F is at 167 points, but it is pretty much guaranteed to sell much less than One Piece Musou 2 in Japan overall.

Same thing with Amazon, not necessarily any indication for Japan overall, but in comparison to Comgnet, Soul Sacrifice is now on 3rd place in the Bestseller list, and it seems that Amazon has stopped taking pre-orders for the double pack and the hardware bundle (they are only being offered from 3rd party sellers now).

Going by Comgnet, it doesnt seem like it will sell that much, but going by Amazon, it seems to do much better. Hard to say which site that gives the most accurate picture when they both indicate something differently, or if the overall sales will be somewhere in between what the sites indicated. But we will know for sure how much Soul Sacrifice will debute at in about a week :)



I don't remember if it was this thread or another recent one (probably this one), but a lot of people said so during the DS rpg explosion, for example.
Btw, doesn't matter. I'm not unhappy with Vita resurrection, I also anticipated it months ago (during November, when me and another Gaffers said that it was almost sure to see Vita selling better Jan-March than Oct-December in Japan (considering the new bunch of games and the probable (YaY!) price cut)
Ah ok, i see. Yeah, no problem, i was just wondering :) I didnt see it was said in this thread, so i had to ask =)
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Feb 11, 2007
21,700
0
0
nipponsalesage.blogspot.com
I think Vita will sustain 20k-ish numbers well into april, Tales of Hearts R, Steins;Gate, DOA5+ and Atelier Meruru, these are ports but they've proven more than once to be system sellers, and ofcourse One Piece Kaizoku Musou 2, not sure how this will do as its also on PS3 but I think it will positively surprise us.
Wait when have any of those titles you listed proven to be system sellers?
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
you should ask Sammy Samusu, he's the one who posted it for the first time. If I have to bet, cheap camera work, horrible performances and the fact it could be intended as a serious scene scream Soap Opera and yeah, these girls are probably shocked the old man is still alive after they killed him. Maybe they're his evil daughters and he's a millionaire or something
Was guessing that he faked his own death to teach his girls a lesson, since they were probably expecting a big cash windfall from his death. The smile on his face looks like a "teaching a lesson" smile to me.
 

Father_Brain

Banned
Jun 7, 2004
22,707
0
0
34
New York, NY
the next weeks will see new interesting releases that will help the system in selling decently for awhile. Vita Jan-March sales will be higher than its Oct-Dec sales (a period where usually sales are up a lot for holidays purhcases).
Unless SS has truly amazing legs, I'm just not seeing where the "a while" part is coming from.

Latter point is undoubtedly true, but that will probably end up saying more about the awfulness of the 2012 holiday lineup than it will positive things about the Q1 lineup or the price cut.
 

extralite

Member
Jun 27, 2011
1,843
0
485
electrolit.net
Arc the Lad was an SRPG hit out of nowhere on PS. There weren't many RPG games before it on PS but thanks to Namco and Capcom titles the console sold decently and fans of that genre bought Arc the Lad. It was also one of the more pretty looking 2D JRPGs early on the PS. Gensou Suikoden from Konami was underwhelming graphically compared to most JRPGs that were releasing for SNES at the time.

Arc the Lad was one of the pick up games for people who bought the console and had no familar franchises to buy.

At the new Vita price Soul Sacrifice can be like RE, Ridge Racer or Arc the Lad on PS. Selling because it looks great, is from a hugely popular genre (MH type multi player action adventure), is advertised a lot and one of only few mainstream titles on the console.

At least that is the Sony strategy. It has worked for them before.
 

Fantastical

Death Prophet
May 3, 2008
20,548
0
0
USA
Was guessing that he faked his own death to teach his girls a lesson, since they were probably expecting a big cash windfall from his death. The smile on his face looks like a "teaching a lesson" smile to me.
Oh okay haha that makes sense. They certainly don't look happy.
 

DR2K

Doesn't buy fighting games to actually play them
Jun 6, 2009
22,193
50
985
33
Houston
Wait when have any of those titles you listed proven to be system sellers?
They don't need to be, having a wider selection of appealing titles constantly streaming in will sell the console in the long run.
 

AranhaHunter

Banned
Mar 20, 2006
10,669
0
0
Every system sold includes the demo, and I belive Sony is also giving 30 days of PSN+ for people who get the game.

They have TV ads, streams, events... Sony is definitely pushing it.
JP PSN+ is akin to getting a theme or avatar in NA/EU, i.e. it's worthless, like the rest of SCEJ.
 

lunchwithyuzo

Banned
Jun 20, 2010
11,040
1
0
Arc the Lad was an SRPG hit out of nowhere on PS. There weren't many RPG games before it on PS but thanks to Namco and Capcom titles the console sold decently and fans of that genre bought Arc the Lad. It was also one of the more pretty looking 2D JRPGs early on the PS. Gensou Suikoden from Konami was underwhelming graphically compared to most JRPGs that were releasing for SNES at the time.

Arc the Lad was one of the pick up games for people who bought the console and had no familar franchises to buy.

At the new Vita price Soul Sacrifice can be like RE, Ridge Racer or Arc the Lad on PS. Selling because it looks great, is from a hugely popular genre (MH type multi player action adventure), is advertised a lot and one of only few mainstream titles on the console.

At least that is the Sony strategy. It has worked for them before.
One notable thing about Arc the Lad is I believe a loose connection to Square was pushed by the press iirc, since the game was made by G-Craft who'd previously developed Front Mission for Square. This sort of parallels the Capcom/Comcept/Monhan/Soulsac link too.

Also, Suikoden 1 actually was a SFC game originally that got shifted to PS1 midway through development. This happened for several early 2D RPGs on PS1/Saturn, Albert Odyssey Gaiden being another.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Feb 11, 2007
21,700
0
0
nipponsalesage.blogspot.com
Obviously anything can happen, but this rush of software is by and large going to be over at the end of March. I just don't see it.

Edit- sorry meant to quote DR2K
 

confuziz

Member
Sep 26, 2009
9,024
0
0
The Netherlands
I think Vita will sustain 20k-ish numbers well into april, Tales of Hearts R, Steins;Gate, DOA5+ and Atelier Meruru, these are ports but they've proven more than once to be system sellers, and ofcourse One Piece Kaizoku Musou 2, not sure how this will do as its also on PS3 but I think it will positively surprise us.
In other, related news:

 
Obviously anything can happen, but this rush of software is by and large going to be over at the end of March. I just don't see it.
Yeah I feel the key is if they can follow this with anything.

So far they haven't really announced anything for the future, and they'll be out of the stuff they have announced relatively soon, so that doesn't inspire confidence for the future line-up.

I guess in theory they could be holding off until what they have right now releases, but after everything that's happened so far, there's not much reason to give them the benefit of the doubt as opposed to forcing them to earn it.
 

zroid

Banned
Nov 7, 2011
76,132
1
0
I think Vita will sustain 20k-ish numbers well into april, Tales of Hearts R, Steins;Gate, DOA5+ and Atelier Meruru, these are ports but they've proven more than once to be system sellers, and ofcourse One Piece Kaizoku Musou 2, not sure how this will do as its also on PS3 but I think it will positively surprise us.
Oh hey, welcome back!
 

metalslimer

Member
Jun 9, 2012
26,528
0
0
Yeah I think asking for a 15k baseline at this point is asking for miracles let alone 20. You can have as many niche titles as you want and it won't do anything. Even the gamecube who's software sales wipe the floor with Vita more than once over didn't reach that kind of baseline with a much healthier ecosystem.