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[DopeyFish]

The 360 also got a second wind with Kinect.

And a smaller console... Which looks like may happen again

 

[neptunes]

I wouldn't worry unless Sony somehow managed to pull another PS3 launch or worse. Unlike Wii U, PS4 will have powerful enough hardware to get tech nerds jumping on board, and from there word of mouth will hopefully be positive enough to give it a semi-healthy launch.
.

I know next -gen won't be in dire straits and its obvious that the tech enthusiast crowd can't wait for new HW, but where does this assumption that the masses will eventually "catch on" come from? Is it possible for a piece of tech to end up only appealing to the enthusiast crowd?

Is it bounded in any research? (Genuinely interested) not referring to previous gaming generations but consumer tech in general.

 

[Baconsammy]

The difference is not as large though. And PS3 is still more expensive. A competitive priced PS4 vs Durango launching at the same time should be about equal.

The difference is big, especially when you consider that during the holidays 360 curbstomps the PS3. But regardless, sales now aren't to people that will be a factor at the launch of the PS4 and Xbox. The people that will decide the immediate fate of PS4/Xbox are the people that bought PS3s and 360s 6-8 years ago.

 

[EagleEyes]

Came out first. Was cheaper. Had an infinitely better online system. XBLA owned PSN for years. Acheivements were popular. Best version of most multi-console games. Much better selling exclusives. Controller is better, especially for shooters.

This man speaks the truth. I find it funny when people are baffled as to why the 360 does better than the PS3 as if there couldn't possibly be anything thats more appealing about the 360.

 

[MikeE21286]

Anyone think/know if NPD will cover Ouya?

Would be hilarious if it outsold the WiiU

 

[metalslimer]

If Microsoft manages to essentially make XBL compatible across platforms then I think there isn't anything stopping them from taking the US again. I.e. someone buying a Durango, will be secure in knowing he has all his 360 friends to play COD: Ghosts with even if they don't get a Durango yet.

Taking the US sure, but a 10 million lead? I don't think that will happen.

The difference is big, especially when you consider that during the holidays 360 curbstomps the PS3. But regardless, sales now aren't to people that will be a factor at the launch of the PS4 and Xbox. The people that will decide the immediate fate of PS4/Xbox are the people that bought PS3s and 360s 6-8 years ago.

I think the lack of BC with both platforms gives them much more of a blank slate.

 

[Miles X]

You know I wouldn't count on MS dominating Sony in the US this time around. A signficant portion of the huge US lead happened when Sony completely bungled the first 2 years of PS3. Unless MS has something huge for the launch in November, I think they will come out with MS slightly ahead.

Actually, you have it the wrong way round, MS have made most of their gains since the slim.

 

[Gadirok]

Came out first. Was cheaper. Had an infinitely better online system. XBLA owned PSN for years. Acheivements were popular. Best version of most multi-console games. Much better selling exclusives. Controller is better, especially for shooters.

That doesn't account for the rest of the world.

I could agree that it was cheaper and came out first, but don't see XBLA as a selling point and more derogatory as coming off of PC gaming in 2011 I never understood why I would pay for network services. I never owned a Playstation console or Xbox console beforehand either, only opting for Nintendo consoles.

The controller is better for shooters, but to me its preference as I don't really see that as a major selling point for myself though I do imagine it changing other people's opinions as the DS3 can be seen for smaller hands like mines.

And for much better selling exclusives, the console had to sell itself first and have build up so I wouldn't list that as a reason until the latter half of the gen.

My point is, earlier on given PS3's blunders it makes sense to choose a 360. But why now? Why is it selling greater than the PS3 this late in the generation?

 

[Margalis]

Personally, I think PS4 and Durango will be the last non-hybrid consoles from the big three anyhow. Whether the future consoles are portable devices that can be streamed to your television...

Agree. IMO the "rule the TV" set top box approach is totally misguided, in 10 years a console is basically going to look like a Wii U game pad, only that will be the whole self-contained system and it will do normal tablet stuff as well as play games.

 

[Gartooth]

I know next -gen won't be in dire straits and its obvious that the tech enthusiast crowd can't wait for new HW, but where does this assumption that the masses will eventually "catch on" come from? Is it possible for a piece of tech to end up only appealing to the enthusiast crowd?

Is it bounded in any research? (Genuinely interested) not referring to previous gaming generations but consumer tech in general.

It's just my personal guess is all. If the 360's success in the last few years despite the PS3 being a better value taught anything to me, it's that building momentum day 1 is incredibly important for a console. So if Sony can get a head start and get positive word of mouth spreading from the hardcore, I certainly think it stands a good chance. (compared to the Wii U which had awful word of mouth and momentum)

My guess is that basically if the enthusiast crowd jumps on board and raves about it, the casual consumer will take interest and thus momentum will be built, but again I have no hard data to back it up.

 

[Unregistered007]

Anyone think/know if NPD will cover Ouya?

Would be hilarious if it outsold the WiiU

LMAO Ouya ... rofl.. sure 10 consoles sold.

 

[DopeyFish]

Taking the US sure, but a 10 million lead? I don't think that will happen.

It is possible. If Durango has BC and Microsoft makes enough units, I say a large portion of their gold user base makes the jump short term.

 

[shinra-bansho]

System sellers - what do you make of them? Nintendo released 2 (two) games for its new platform. Clearly not enough, and it shows. That's an execution problem, which is about ti be fixed, like they are fixing miiverse or the OS. As long as they fix price and their marketing team, Wii U will have a market. Sytstem sellers will make sure of that.

In this strange universe you live in where Iwata channels the ghost of Steve Jobs and the UPad is the best thing since sliced bread, how manifold does the release of Mario Kart increase Wii U sales by? 2x, 3x, 5x so that it's selling like a 7 year old system? 10x so that suddenly it's a healthy system?

Because that's what the Wii U's sales have to do, literally increase by an order of magnitude. I cannot see simply releasing a Mario Kart of 3D Mario do that. "Marketing" as if it's some kind of magic will not do that either.

Also, poor NSMBU that bus just keeps on driving over and over it. You lost your 25M+, definite system sell, gangbuster HW status.

 

[Striek]

What sad numbers all around. None of the big 3 will be happy with this.

 

[Kamikaze8]

So we got pretty good extrapolations of the consoles and the Vita, but what about the 3DS? Anything?

 

[DaBoss]

I think the lack of BC with both platforms gives them much more of a blank slate.

People will still have their PSN/XBL account, which I think is going to be a large influence in the decision.

 

[Four_Chamber]

360 outsold Sony by 1.5 million units in Nov/Dec of 2011 alone and has consistently been ahead of PS3 for years now. It's been a relatively consistent pattern of 360>PS3, and not just in the beginning.

Agreed- MS has been outpacing the PS3 by a significant margin ~1 million units every holiday season. This is with Microsoft more or less shifting into autopilot and letting 3rd parties lead the way. I forget the exact number, but you don't build up a lead of >10 million in one or two years. Since Kinect, the 360 has been in beast mode in the US.

 

[Miles X]

It is possible. If Durango has BC and Microsoft makes enough units, I say a large portion of their gold user base makes the jump short term.

It's definitely possible, 360 has a 15 mill lead and accrued less than half of that before the slim.

 

[Gadirok]

Death at Wii U, Vita and Inafune Sacrifice.

But soul Sacrifice came in the last day of April so we won't really see results until we check the results for May.

 

[metalslimer]

Actually, you have it the wrong way round, MS have made most of their gains since the slim.

Hmm, that also coincided with Kinect launching a few months later. I guess the US will be very interesting this time around and whether Kinect has as big of an impact with 2.0. If they do go subsidies and Sony doesn't have one they are screwed/

But soul Sacrifice came in the last day of April so we won't really see results until we check the results for May.

I'll save you the trouble. It will sell less next month and we won't get the numbers anyway because no one will care.

 

[Baconsammy]

That doesn't account for the rest of the world.

I could agree that it was cheaper and came out first, but don't see XBLA as a selling point and more derogatory as coming off of PC gaming in 2011 I never understood why I would pay for network services. I never owned a Playstation console or Xbox console beforehand either, only opting for Nintendo consoles.

The controller is better for shooters, but to me its preference as I don't really see that as a major selling point for myself though I do imagine it changing other people's opinions as the DS3 can be seen for smaller hands like mines.

And for much better selling exclusives, the console had to sell itself first and have build up so I wouldn't list that as a reason until the latter half of the gen.

My point is, earlier on given PS3's blunders it makes sense to choose a 360. But why now? Why is it selling greater than the PS3 this late in the generation?

Casuals are buying consoles now. Kinect. Cheaper console. Better marketing.

 

[sixteen-bit]

But soul Sacrifice came in the last day of April so we won't really see results until we check the results for May.

but this tracks through may 5th and non-nintendo games are front-loaded saleswise

 

[Cipherr]

Vita and WiiU nipping at the heels of the point where NPD should just stop tracking them.

Hilarious.

 

[Gadirok]

but this tracks through may 5th and non-nintendo games are front-loaded saleswise

I didn't realize it tracks through May 5.

Doesn't look too good for Vita.

 

[Chinpoko_Master]

Wii U numbers aren't even funny to me anymore, just sad.

 

[Four_Chamber]

People saying Soul Sacrifice sales are decent? I know standards for Vita sales are in the toilet, but damn that's stretching it a bit much. I hope Sony is not hoping Remote Play, a feature that won't do crap for sales, is the savior of the system. I gotta give Sony credit for still supporting the Vita- its reaching the point where most physical retailers will have zero incentive to even stock the thing. The writing is on the wall for the Vita unfortunately.

 

[Gadirok]

People saying Soul Sacrifice sales are decent? I know standards for Vita sales are in the toilet, but damn that's stretching it. I hope Sony is not hoping Remote Play, a feature that won't do crap for sales, is the savior of the system.

I honestly think they don't care and plan to promote it in Japan and leave it like that. Probably keep it as an accessory for the PS4 at this point.

There is little software to look forward to in the latter half of the year.

 

[Papercuts]

I'm interested to see how hard Sony will push Vita to PS4 features. I really don't see how they can turn this around.

 

[Lambda Pie]

i'm willing to bet you'll see a sub-30k month for Wii U before 2014.

 

[Road]

After 26 months:

GBA: 15.1m
DS: 9.1m
3DS: 8.4m
PSP: 7.4m

After 15 months:

GBA: 7.7m
3DS: 5.0m
PSP: 4.7m
NDS: 4.0m
PSV: 1.4m

color blind edition

 

[Duxxy3]

People saying Soul Sacrifice sales are decent? I know standards for Vita sales are in the toilet, but damn that's stretching it a bit much. I hope Sony is not hoping Remote Play, a feature that won't do crap for sales, is the savior of the system. I gotta give Sony credit for still supporting the Vita- its reaching the point where most physical retailers will have zero incentive to even stock the thing. The writing is on the wall for the Vita unfortunately.

I have yet to see anything that tells me that Sony isn't just leaving the vita out to die.

 

[allan-bh]

So we got pretty good extrapolations of the consoles and the Vita, but what about the 3DS? Anything?

jvm estimated 100k

 

[marc^o^]

In this strange universe you live in where Iwata channels the ghost of Steve Jobs and the UPad is the best thing since sliced bread,

This is low, can't take a serious discussion with someone having a 180 degree different vision than yours?

how manifold does the release of Mario Kart increase Wii U sales by?

2x, 3x, 5x so that it's selling like a 7 year old system? 10x so that suddenly it's a healthy system?

The Wii U's sales have to literally increase by an order of magnitude. I cannot see simply releasing a Mario Kart of 3D Mario do that. "Marketing" as if it's some kind of magic will not do that either.

The 2H Wii U lineup is potentially far more than Mario Kart, if execution is right a shocking U turn in not out of reach. Until proven wrong people love Nintendo games. Nintendo usually is very good at selling their games in H2, and they are likely to have plenty of them, looking great for the first time in HD. And yes, GamePad is a great device, that needs to be priced and promoted correctly with the machine that feeds it.

 

[StreetsAhead]

After 26 months:

GBA: 15.1m
DS: 9.1m
3DS: 8.4m
PSP: 7.4m

After 15 months:

GBA: 7.7m
3DS: 5.0m
PSP: 4.7m
NDS: 4.0m
PSV: 1.4m

color blind edition

With Animal Crossing, Pokemon, and Zelda launching this year, I hope the 3DS' sales increase. Of course, it'll never beat the DS based on current trends.

 

[mysteriousmage09]

Minecraft



And this. Kinect was a big success. Move was a failure.

Thank god for that.

 

[Magicpaint]

jvm estimated 100k

Terrible. Will be interesting to see what Animal Crossing/Pokemon can do, because this wave of Q1 software didn't move much units at all. And finally people can stop using that misguided PR claim of 3DS being ahead of DS launch aligned.

 

[Bowler]

Vita and WiiU nipping at the heels of the point where NPD should just stop tracking them.

Hilarious.

Not sure how this is funny... It's sad, and doesn't help gamers. That's provided you are a gamer, hence posting on a gamers forum.

 

[Daingurse]

Thank god for that.

Yep.

 

[Save 'N Quit]

WiiU and PSV are still on life support, I see.

Happy for Injustice and Luigi charting. Bought Luigi last week but haven't gotten around to playing it yet.

 

[DR2K]

Might be true but I certainly won't be supporting it again on PS3 unless they developed on PS3 first.

They fixed some of the problems but not all of them, and it damaged the brand. One of the lead reasons why people call out multiplats generally being better on 360.

They did with Vanquish, which was great on PS3. Of course this is a Wii U only game.

 

[scytheavatar]

There was a vocal minority and alot of hype when the price was announced so I don't blame him for confusing things.

No there wasn't, lots of people were complaining about how Sony learnt absolutely nothing from the PSP and came out with yet another overengined elephant. And that their push to put the PS3 experience on the Vita shows they don't understand the expectations of the portable market.

 

[Chinpoko_Master]

After 26 months:

GBA: 15.1m
DS: 9.1m
3DS: 8.4m
PSP: 7.4m

After 15 months:

GBA: 7.7m
3DS: 5.0m
PSP: 4.7m
NDS: 4.0m
PSV: 1.4m

color blind edition

So much for the 3DS tracking ahead of the DS.

 

[Striek]

No there wasn't, lots of people were complaining about how Sony learnt absolutely nothing from the PSP and came out with yet another overengined elephant. And that their push to put the PS3 experience on the Vita shows they don't understand the expectations of the portable market.

At least there wont be an attempt no. 3. After this generation there isn't going to be a portable market worth pursuing.

 

[Byakuya769]

Not sure how this is funny... It's sad, and doesn't help gamers. That's provided you are a gamer, hence posting on a gamers forum.

Games were doing fine before the PS2 broke barriers. The market looks to be shrinking, maybe just to historic norms.

 

[shinra-bansho]

This is low, can't take a serious discussion with someone with a 180 degree vision as yours?

I don't see anything amiss about citing that you literally wrote a Steve Jobs fanfiction and are the self-proclaimed defender of the Nintendo and the Wii U to provide "balance" to NeoGAF, as indication you aren't someone willing to accept the reality of the Wii U's situation, regardless of the data presented to you.

The 2H Wii U lineup is potentially far more than Mario Kart, if execution is right a shocking U turn in not out of reach. Until proven wrong people love Nintendo games. Nintendo usually is very good at selling their games in H2, and they are likely to have plenty of them, looking great for the first time in HD. And yes, GamePad is a great device, that needs to be priced and promoted correctly with the machine that feeds it.

The only games with broad appeal outside of Nintendo's core fanbase to the degree that Nintendo needs is Mario Kart and to a lesser extent a 3D Mario title. And whether any casuals still bite for Wii ____ titles. X, the Wonderful 101, Pikmin, are not going to change the Wii U's course.

Nobody cares about the GamePad. Accept that and move on.

 

[StreetsAhead]

I'd wager that more people buy systems now when there are multiple games that they want. Right now, Wii U has (exclusively):

1. Sing Party
2. NSMBU
3. Nintendo Land (pack in)
4. Lego City Undercover
5. Zombi U

(Console Scribblenauts and Monster Hunter if you want to get technical).

The potential end of the year list looks like:

1. Sing Party
2. NSMBU (& New Super Luigi DLC)
3. Nintendo Land (pack in)
4. Lego City Undercover
5. Zombi U
6. Wii Fit U
7. Wii Party U
8. Game & Wario
9. 3D Mario
10. Mario Kart
11. Pikmin 3
12. Wind Waker HD
13. TW101

(With 2 console Scribblenauts, and Monster Hunter). Again, not the best scenario, but it might push some people over the edge. Enough people? Who knows.

Thank god for that.

Makes it weird to me that they're supporting it in PS4 and (seemingly) it's backwards compatible.

 

[Father_Brain]

I have yet to see anything that tells me that Sony isn't just leaving the vita out to die.

The (optimistic) 5M PSP/Vita worldwide forecast suggests that's more or less their plan. Release the games they have lined up for the rest of the FY, don't make any major push for them, let them sell what they're going to sell, and then speak no more about it.

I'm sure that various people at SCEA, SCEE, and SCEJA would assert otherwise, but I don't really see what else they can possibly do at this point.

 

[Chinpoko_Master]

I don't see anything amiss about citing that you literally wrote a Steve Jobs fanfiction and are the self-proclaimed defender of the Nintendo and the Wii U to provide "balance" to NeoGAF, as indication you aren't someone willing to accept the reality of the Wii U's situation, regardless of the data presented to you.

I totally forgot about that thread. How embarrassing. lmao

 

[Owzers]

The (optimistic) 5M PSP/Vita worldwide forecast suggests that's more or less their plan. Release the games they have lined up for the rest of the FY, don't make any major push for them, let them sell what they're going to sell, and then speak no more about it.

I'm sure that various people at SCEA, SCEE, and SCEJA would assert otherwise, but I don't really see what else they can possibly do at this point.

Drop the price, bundle with 8GB memory stick, cross-buy, ps4 streaming?

 

[Dave Meltzer]

System sellers - what do you make of them? Nintendo released 2 (two) games for its new platform. Clearly not enough, and it shows. That's an execution problem, which is about ti be fixed, like they are fixing miiverse or the OS. As long as they fix price and their marketing team, Wii U will have a market. Sytstem sellers will make sure of that.

System sellers such as?

How many systems did Mario Sunshine sell? Why is 3D Mario U going to be difference? How many systems did Wind Waker and Double Dash sell?