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Speculation: Kinect is just a über Nielson box. All else follows.

Oppo

Member
I've been thinking about this ever since the Xbox One and new Kinect were announced and shown.

The primary purpose of the Kinect seems to be as a sensor for demographic tracking of viewership. When looking at the device and its capabilities, it makes much, much more sense as that, than even as a novel game or home theatre controller.

In fact it seems to me that the Kinect "possibilities" may well have been shoe horned, ret-conned, after the fact, strategically. Which is kind of tinfoil hattish but bear with me a moment longer.

Microsoft saw a possibility to leverage the new Xbox across several different markets: the existing video game/streaming media market that the 360 worked in, plus as a competitor to the likes of Apple TV/Roku/Chromecast, AND as a drop in replacement for all the cable boxen in North America (at least), capable of doing all those functions much better than the VIC 20 guts you find on a typical Big Cable set top box.

Kinect can see how many people are in the room, where they sit, what their expressions are, perhaps their heart rate, what sorta people they are (I.e.kids or adults), and it can do all of this in the dark. Ok. That data is crazy valuable. Highly accurate demo data that is time stamped. No they aren't staring at your boner, they could not care less about your boner; your boner is not valuable data. In fact most of the RGB stuff it captures is sort of incidental, a verification layer.

What they want is: this ad during this part of the Superbowl raised heart rates across the view ship by 22%. There were an average of X many viewers in a given room for Show Y's premiere. 3/4 of that audience was female. 72% of them frowned when the intro played longer than the initial minute of runtime (looking at you, Orange Is The New Black). 46% of the audience left the room when the ad break was placed early in the show. And so on. That data can be compiled into little tiny dB reports, no need to beam fat (and obvious) RGB data back to MS. Kinect and One can compile all of this at the client end.

And then MS has some of the most valuable viewship data in the world, with a high degree of accuracy and integrity.

Every decision MS has made about the Kinect, makes perfect sense to me, in this light. Of course it had to be mostly required. Of course they had to ship it with the console. Of course "Xbox One IS Kinect". It's part of the entire strategy for the thing.

Kinect was proposed first and they reverse-engineered gaming and remote control examples for the tech. It makes so much sense. It's why there's a scant handful of actually compelling use cases for games. It's why they've rolled voice commands in with gestural body tracking and called the whole thing — two very different control schemes — as "Kinect".

I don't think Kinect was ever meant to be a video game controller, at least certainly not primarily. It's a demographics sensor. The game part was the Trojan horse. The retconned marketing plan made to sell the thing.

Thoughts?
 

LevityNYC

Banned
billions of dollars invested to determine TV ratings....something cable companies can already do without it.

tumblr_lip867BUXE1qdra0oo1_400.jpg
 

LuchaShaq

Banned
The only way I would ever willingly set up a kinect in my home again would be if the XB1/kinect was free and I got a monthly check from Nielson like I do now.
 
I agree. microsoft tries to build a big and very accurate database they will sell to their costumers. They will be able to target ads and adjust their offer to their audience. This box was first imagined as an orwellian nightmare.
 

Oppo

Member
billions of dollars invested to determine TV ratings....something cable companies can already do without it.

They can't really though. Much of it is estimated. And not with the same fidelity as Kinect (# of people, expressions etc).
 
Nice, a thread for the tin foil hatted. I'm right there with you, although I personally think that this is just another way to monetize, not the primary purpose of the whole thing. If it would be the primary purpose MS would sell the whole XBOne for 100 Dollars with subscription and would rely for the ad money to make up. In this business the more info you have the better.
 

drspeedy

Member
billions of dollars invested to determine TV ratings....something cable companies can already do without it.

You realize that from voluntary things like focus groups and surveys marketing firms can basically identify we consumers down to the style of shoes we prefer (velcro making a comeback!), the hours we like to shop, the church we attend and how often (not kidding) and the frequency that we'll buy that next bonus size box of Chees-O Snack Munchies... If you've not seen the kind of consumer data being collected, you should look it up, it's stunning. Stupefying, perhaps.

So then companies buy ad time based on what they hope Joe Consumer will be watching... which is where the magic happens. Yeah, sure, you pay for XX million eyes watching your ad, depending on what time of day it is and how popular the show is with audiences, but translating that 30 seconds of commercial into a sale isn't guaranteed... it would be much easier if you could instantly see how well your ad resonated with a giant sample size group (XBONE install base will be large), and also compare that data against everything else they watched/played/downloaded/bought in the last couple of weeks. You could identify consumer habits down to the millisecond, and tailor your ad dollars accordingly.

It's not far fetched to think that MS could make big money off it, if that's indeed what they're planning to do with the kind of data they could potentially collect. I don't know what they have in mind, but if the dollars are there.... they'll find a way to collect them eventually
 
D

Deleted member 13876

Unconfirmed Member
Seems like it would give a much bigger degree of accuracy than Nielsen ratings, at least for the console gaming demographic. If you know companies like Amazon are willing to spend millions to get a recommendation algorithm that outperforms the last one by .5% this is not that nonsensical as some might think. As pointed out they've gone on record musing about the advertising possibilities. Targeted advertising is something a lot of companies are willing to spend a lot of cash on.
 

Oppo

Member
Major Nielsen

Heh.

Frankly, I don't even think that this is that bad of an idea, or particularly evil. I actually prefer targeted ads if I have to experience any myself. But I do think that it may have been the initial focus rather than the "happy afterthought" or however you might term it.
 
As someone who works in the advertising space, and actively speaks with both Microsoft and Sony with regards to advertising on their platforms - I can guarantee you that they see Xbox One as a means for additional revenue.

With regards to the Nielsen comments: Nielsen gets its data from two sources, diaries filled out by individuals, as well as digital data from households with remotes which require the user to identify themselves, and then track their TV usage. The bases used to extrapolate each market or DMA is very small in comparison to what Xbox 360 can do for the 'gamer' demographic, and the Xbox One will be able to do with individual user recognition using the Kinect 2.0.

This is not 'tin-hat' thinking - the data will be collected and used for advertising. Also, the CPM (cost per thousand) for placing an ad is very high in comparison to other mediums such as cable or network TV, etc.

You are giving them a very small amount of money (from an advertiser) each and every time you are exposed to their ad. At this point in time, they receive (depending on individual client negotiations) $32+ per 1000 impressions served. Yes, you are paying to use their service, AND giving them an additional revenue stream. The amount is small on an individual level, but rather large when viewed in total. The revenue will only grow for them when you watch TV through Xbox One, and they reach deals with cable providers and networks to provide the Nielsen data, and receive a portion of the advertising revenue from regular TV advertising served through your Xbox One.

PS: Sony does this as well - but to a much lesser extent, and only in very limited areas versus Xbox.
 
billions of dollars invested to determine TV ratings....something cable companies can already do without it.

tumblr_lip867BUXE1qdra0oo1_400.jpg

Something cable companies can do? Nope. Nielsen tries, and even then it's usually from a sample with 5 figures. Considering there's 99 million TV sets in America, that's not necessarily representative.

So you can take the piss, and while I agree it's a little tin-foily, there was no consumer benefit to the Kinect always being on. And as far as supporting advertising revenue streams go, an accurate set of realtime data on how many people are watching TV, along with their demographics is FAR more valuable than Nielsen's analytics.
 

Ploid 3.0

Member
Yeah it seems like Kinect was their big plan to data farm the living room. Also they talked about physical drm and such. Kinect don't bring enough to the table to be worth all that for me.

Youtube: "Click the subscribe button" $,$$$,$$$

Imagine it like this. Each time a xbox one customer connects his console+kinect 2 online microsoft gets a new subscriber (not talking gold sub). Remember the Pewdiepie thread about how much he makes from his puny subs and advertising possibilities? Just take 20mil xbox one accounts and the wide range of advertisement methods, data selling, and product control, Microsoft will make a killing with Kinect 2. The perfect money maker.
 
billions of dollars invested to determine TV ratings....something cable companies can already do without it.

tumblr_lip867BUXE1qdra0oo1_400.jpg

wrong.

Neilsen uses specific boxes for their ratings (and in some cases, paper journals, but I've heard less about these lately.)

how much networks get to charge depends largely on what neilsen SAYS the rating is, even if a specific cable company could theoretically tell a different story. Neilsen's system unfortunately has become less and less reliable over time, as people begin time shifting (which the boxes don't pick up) as well as multitasking- say, leaving the tv on but going to do other things. Games are becoming more popular as well eating into "tv time" and neilsen can't pick that up either.

Neilsen really only has about 25,000 families being measured, which really isn't a lot when you consider there are about 100 million households. the Xbox360 has an install base of around 40 million consoles in the US. This means their measurements are a LOT more accurate and valuable to advertisers than neilsen's numbers would be.

Also, neilsen's peoplemeters (and yes, i've used one personally) contain a lot of user error. they rely on the user to tell the box which member of the family is using it, and if there are guests to manually input their age and gender appropriately so neilsen can track it. if someone leaves the room to do something else and leaves the TV on, neilsen continues to think that this show is still being watched. Obviously, this has flaws. Shit tv shows that follow a hit often have REALLY high ratings simply because users are too lazy to shut off the meter when they go do something else.

now, consider the xbox one. Kinect is able to tell not only how many people are in the room, but exactly who is there on a consistent basis without room for user error. Demographics are not all equally valuable to advertisers, so if the xbox is able to consistently tell advertisers which programs and games are being watched by their desired demographic with 100% accuracy, this is worth a LOT of money.

Now, this assumes that microsoft is interested in being a neilsen competitor, which may or may not be true (but probably is, given the focus on integration with live TV). if it works, it's a revenue driver. neilsen charges a lot of money to networks for those ratings. But consider for a second if they're not interested in competing with neilsen. what then.?

Notice those ads on xbox live? those are ALSO a revenue driver for microsoft. Companies pay significant amounts of money, hundreds of millions per year based on who *might* be watching. With the increased accuracy kinect offers, microsoft is now able to charge a lot more money per exposure. Right now MS is only able to guarantee one person is viewing a given advertisement, and can't say anything about age or demographics, just an estimate.

What if they were suddenly able to tell those advertisers EXACTLY how many people viewed an xbox live ad, for exactly how long, and exactly what their age and gender are? this is worth quite a bit of money to them, and they''ll easily recoup the cost of kinect within a year or two by the increase in ad dollars.

The OP's theory is sound here.
 

Kunan

Member
Yup this has pretty much been my line of thinking since they revealed kinect 2 could monitor your heart rate and has object recognition. This could be absolutely massive for advertisers.
 

Coxy

Member
Microsoft IEB Dublin is focused on researching peoples facial reactions to ads, what ads get their attention, how long they keep looking at each ad etc so yeah
 

hesido

Member
I too think it is one aspect of having kinect standard. The tin foily part of the OP is from assuming this is the *main* reason. I don't think it is otherwise an inaccurate idea.
 
D

Deleted member 13876

Unconfirmed Member
For the record, posting a random ass tinfoil hat picture is neither clever nor constructive to a discussion.
 

strata8

Member
Kinect was proposed first and they reverse-engineered gaming and remote control examples for the tech. It makes so much sense. It's why there's a scant handful of actually compelling use cases for games. It's why they've rolled voice commands in with gestural body tracking and called the whole thing — two very different control schemes — as "Kinect".

I don't think Kinect was ever meant to be a video game controller, at least certainly not primarily. It's a demographics sensor. The game part was the Trojan horse. The retconned marketing plan made to sell the thing.

This part seems ludicrous. Do you have any evidence of MS selling information they've collected (or even collecting information at all) from Kinect 1? That's a pretty important piece that's needed to back up the assertion you've put forward here.
 
I've been thinking about this ever since the Xbox One and new Kinect were announced and shown.

The primary purpose of the Kinect seems to be as a sensor for demographic tracking of viewership. When looking at the device and its capabilities, it makes much, much more sense as that, than even as a novel game or home theatre controller.

In fact it seems to me that the Kinect "possibilities" may well have been shoe horned, ret-conned, after the fact, strategically. Which is kind of tinfoil hattish but bear with me a moment longer.

Microsoft saw a possibility to leverage the new Xbox across several different markets: the existing video game/streaming media market that the 360 worked in, plus as a competitor to the likes of Apple TV/Roku/Chromecast, AND as a drop in replacement for all the cable boxen in North America (at least), capable of doing all those functions much better than the VIC 20 guts you find on a typical Big Cable set top box.

Kinect can see how many people are in the room, where they sit, what their expressions are, perhaps their heart rate, what sorta people they are (I.e.kids or adults), and it can do all of this in the dark. Ok. That data is crazy valuable. Highly accurate demo data that is time stamped. No they aren't staring at your boner, they could not care less about your boner; your boner is not valuable data. In fact most of the RGB stuff it captures is sort of incidental, a verification layer.

What they want is: this ad during this part of the Superbowl raised heart rates across the view ship by 22%. There were an average of X many viewers in a given room for Show Y's premiere. 3/4 of that audience was female. 72% of them frowned when the intro played longer than the initial minute of runtime (looking at you, Orange Is The New Black). 46% of the audience left the room when the ad break was placed early in the show. And so on. That data can be compiled into little tiny dB reports, no need to beam fat (and obvious) RGB data back to MS. Kinect and One can compile all of this at the client end.

And then MS has some of the most valuable viewship data in the world, with a high degree of accuracy and integrity.

Every decision MS has made about the Kinect, makes perfect sense to me, in this light. Of course it had to be mostly required. Of course they had to ship it with the console. Of course "Xbox One IS Kinect". It's part of the entire strategy for the thing.

Kinect was proposed first and they reverse-engineered gaming and remote control examples for the tech. It makes so much sense. It's why there's a scant handful of actually compelling use cases for games. It's why they've rolled voice commands in with gestural body tracking and called the whole thing — two very different control schemes — as "Kinect".

I don't think Kinect was ever meant to be a video game controller, at least certainly not primarily. It's a demographics sensor. The game part was the Trojan horse. The retconned marketing plan made to sell the thing.

Thoughts?
I just read this will constantly nodding my head in agreement. Maybe not as clear cut as you put it since there are indeed some potential good gaming applications for the device but been as imposed as it is, it clearly show what MS intentions with the device are.

Paranoid or not, i think is enough to renounce ones privacy when using your PC and OS or the cell phone. Just to up the ante an have someone monitoring you while you entertein yourself in the living room.

What's next? Sleep while connected to a machine?
 

hipbabboom

Huh? What did I say? Did I screw up again? :(
I agree. microsoft tries to build a big and very accurate database they will sell to their costumers. They will be able to target ads and adjust their offer to their audience. This box was first imagined as an orwellian nightmare.

DO you have a Google account? :)
 
For those saying this data isn't valuable to marketing agencies are delusional. It actually makes sense especially at how adamant MS was about reqiuring kinect to always remain on.
 

Ploid 3.0

Member
DO you have a Google account? :)

The thing is I know google monitors a ton of stuff. they aren't fixed on my living room with a data collecting powerhouse camera though. Kinect 2 can tell if my heart races when I look at the "Before Dead, After Dead 4" trailer. What gaming mechanic will make use of that type of stuff?
 
As someone already pointed out saying "Kinect is just a ____" is false. Kinect obviously is included for numerous purposes. Strategically they want the casual motion control audience, they want advertising engagement via interactivity, they want voice control, AV control, they want to leverage the touch screen app ecosystem in the living room, they want to increase Skype usage, they want to leverage the popularity of Twitch, they want to be ready for future VR or AR headset technology.

It never ceases to amaze me how cynical and evil people portray everything that Microsoft does. I actually think Microsoft are a bunch of idiotic cowards, too afraid to actually pursue lucrative uses for fear of the tinfoil hat brigade. Microsoft of today is no longer the cunning 90's-era evil empire that people portray them to be. They are a bunch of sniveling wimps that at the first wiff of controversy turn tail and overcompensate. They'll come out and say "no we will never ever share any of this data with 3rd party companies" and yet here I am raising my hand saying I'll share my data in exchange for store credit or free games or free gift cards. What the hell do I care if you tell an advertiser that I actually looked at the screen when their ad played? If it is my choice to share that data and I get compensated somehow, then what's wrong with being transparent about this?

Who cares if they did use it as a Nielsen box (allowing you to opt-in to share data and opinions in exchange for some compensation or reward). Is the Nielsen company evil too?
 
Microsoft IEB Dublin is focused on researching peoples facial reactions to ads, what ads get their attention, how long they keep looking at each ad etc so yeah

That's something new to me. Well, I am not too bothered by it, I just wouldn't like it if it meant Kinect had to be mandatory.

For the record, posting a random ass tinfoil hat picture is neither clever nor constructive to a discussion.

I just want to agree wholeheartedly with this. That was a very dismissive and reductive first post.

I am glad everyone else feels the same.
 

Grief.exe

Member
As someone who works in the advertising space, and actively speaks with both Microsoft and Sony with regards to advertising on their platforms - I can guarantee you that they see Xbox One as a means for additional revenue.

With regards to the Nielsen comments: Nielsen gets its data from two sources, diaries filled out by individuals, as well as digital data from households with remotes which require the user to identify themselves, and then track their TV usage. The bases used to extrapolate each market or DMA is very small in comparison to what Xbox 360 can do for the 'gamer' demographic, and the Xbox One will be able to do with individual user recognition using the Kinect 2.0.

This is not 'tin-hat' thinking - the data will be collected and used for advertising. Also, the CPM (cost per thousand) for placing an ad is very high in comparison to other mediums such as cable or network TV, etc.

You are giving them a very small amount of money (from an advertiser) each and every time you are exposed to their ad. At this point in time, they receive (depending on individual client negotiations) $32+ per 1000 impressions served. Yes, you are paying to use their service, AND giving them an additional revenue stream. The amount is small on an individual level, but rather large when viewed in total. The revenue will only grow for them when you watch TV through Xbox One, and they reach deals with cable providers and networks to provide the Nielsen data, and receive a portion of the advertising revenue from regular TV advertising served through your Xbox One.

PS: Sony does this as well - but to a much lesser extent, and only in very limited areas versus Xbox.

Interesting read and coming from someone with frost hand experience in this area.
Good post, I appreciate the insight.
 
It is designed to recognize individual users by voice. No doubt they will use profiles of those individual users to target advertising towards those unique users. There is a lot more money in that kind of advertising.
 

Ploid 3.0

Member
No, but they did something equally appalling. For a long time, Google Street View vehicles collected information from unprotected wireless networks as they passed by your home. How many people are aware of that?

That's what people get for not protecting their wireless network. Now if google installed a firewire modem for my new google high speed internet, then put a hidden kinect 2 like camera in my directv box and put a way to monitor what tv shows I'm watching and the commercials, that would be some major not cool actions.
 
Seems like it would give a much bigger degree of accuracy than Nielsen ratings, at least for the console gaming demographic. If you know companies like Amazon are willing to spend millions to get a recommendation algorithm that outperforms the last one by .5% this is not that nonsensical as some might think. As pointed out they've gone on record musing about the advertising possibilities. Targeted advertising is something a lot of companies are willing to spend a lot of cash on.
Netflix
 
As someone already pointed out saying "Kinect is just a ____" is false. Kinect obviously is included for numerous purposes. Strategically they want the casual motion control audience, they want advertising engagement via interactivity, they want voice control, AV control, they want to leverage the touch screen app ecosystem in the living room, they want to increase Skype usage, they want to leverage the popularity of Twitch, they want to be ready for future VR or AR headset technology.

It never ceases to amaze me how cynical and evil people portray everything that Microsoft does. I actually think Microsoft are a bunch of idiotic cowards, too afraid to actually pursue lucrative uses for fear of the tinfoil hat brigade. Microsoft of today is no longer the cunning 90's-era evil empire that people portray them to be. They are a bunch of sniveling wimps that at the first wiff of controversy turn tail and overcompensate. They'll come out and say "no we will never ever share any of this data with 3rd party companies" and yet here I am raising my hand saying I'll share my data in exchange for store credit or free games or free gift cards. What the hell do I care if you tell an advertiser that I actually looked at the screen when their ad played? If it is my choice to share that data and I get compensated somehow, then what's wrong with being transparent about this?

Who cares if they did use it as a Nielsen box (allowing you to opt-in to share data and opinions in exchange for some compensation or reward). Is the Nielsen company evil too?
And the bolded is fine because is your choice and you would be compensated somewhat.

But MS is selling us a 500 box that needs and extra subscription fee to play online games and data mines the shit out of users, while not offering something of significant much value than competitors. They have rivals offering more powerful boxes that are less intrusive and with equal/better exclusive content.

So as it is, at least from my view, is not such an aluring proposition.
If you're OK with one, it shouldn't be mutually exclusive nor assumed you're OK with another.
I chose to reply to this post because is somewhat related to the above.

Google, so far, hasn't charged me a dime for the valuable services they offer. And in any case even if you cope out with something it doesn't change the fact that some times you need to draw a line and stop taking more BS.
 
If you are seriously afraid of this, they let you unplug the Kinect now. Not sure why this should be an issue for anyone given that Kinect is no longer required.

I'm completely on board with anyone who says that Microsoft should make something like this opt-in only and be transparent about it. I also think there should be some kind of rewards system for people who choose to participate in data sharing. It's not even about being generous, it's about if you want people to use the device for TV then you should give them an incentive to want to use it as much as possible. If a TV show wants to reward you for watching at least 10 minutes of their program or an advertiser wants to pay you for looking at their ad then you should be able to choose to participate.

I'll take some couch potato rewards, give me rewards points (sort of like Gamerscore) for watching TV with Kinect that I can trade in for free games or gift cards. What if you choose to opt-in to this and Xbox Live Gold is now free? I hope they do that, as the requirement to be a Gold subscriber to use the TV Guide is absolutely idiotic. There are so many better ways to make money from TV watching than to charge people the XBL fee. All you are accomplishing by paywalling the TV Guide is decreasing your user numbers and making them harder to monetize via TV broadcasters/advertising deals.
 
D

Deleted member 13876

Unconfirmed Member

Both companies heavily rely on recommendation algorithms, but Netflix is another good example. Another trend is using social network analysis for better recommendations or predict where a person might be going next for services like Facebook Places and Foursquare. Companies are investing a lot of time and effort into effective methods to better commercialize the vast amount of data they collect and Kinect is obviously an extension of that trend.
 
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