Why wouldn't they have a similar number in production?
And Sony is going to have to ramp down soon. They are producing units in Japan and then air lifting them. They are probably 10-20% more expensive than units made in China and shipped by shitboat.
Sony is like QWOP incarnate in corporate form. Had they another shot at this, they'd have more production lines open in August and September. The window has passed.
They can't spend money ramping up now when they will be ramping down soon (they will eventually meet global demand...probably 1q). They just have to ride this out.
I'm not sure they will be ramping down anytime soon, AFAIK they are not air freighting just the Japan units but also Chinese units that were originally intended for February. The increase in cost is around $15 from going from ship to air. I think they could be changing production from Japan to China though at some point if it becomes clear >1m units per month would be necessary.
Given their current shipping trends it appears that Sony are shipping up to 600k per week during December for up to 2.5m for the month, this is according to a supply chain analyst of course:
Basically he thinks Sony are just bringing forwards all of January's shipment volume (which would leave about now by boat) to get units on shelves before Xmas. So, err, yes. He said 300k per week should arrive globally by regular sea based shipments in December (set off early November) and a further 300k per week by air that sets off on a daily basis from Shenzhen cargo airport. He noted that shipping volume (and bulk pricing) has dipped on routes with companies regularly used by Sony, which he said is indicative of Sony air freighting stock.
Until Jan 6th is what he estimates, then they will trickle air shipments and let the regular sea based shipments catch up over about a month.
I Have no Idea how many XB1's are being shipped but I would be surprised if they came close to 2.5m WW, but I think NA is close, like with XB1 shipping more. January/February stock would be low for PS4's and potentially a sales boost in march as there are quite a few so they would likely need to keep up stock as EU mainland retailers are already advising "Pre-orders" coming in now will likely be fulfilled in February, all of which I think means the supply chain will have to stay up for quite a while as demand is incredible.
I would
guess that Sony are producing 1.2m per month and XB1 is producing 1m per month, based only on the launch shipments and that we know they are producing in Japan aswell. 1.2m per month is 14.4 million in a year, or more importantly over the course of 13 months is 15.6m which would be reasonable for the first 13 months of a console including 2 Holiday periods.
Anyway, I think I've gone on a bit of a ramble, but hopefully I've explained why I don't think they will be stepping down production until potentially next November and that I think sony are supplying more than MS without producing many more units.
Honestly I think NPD depends entirely on XB1 sales in the week after Christmas as both consoles will sell out for Christmas presents on the 24th.