Support NeoGAF

[sono]

for the UK I have been referring to http://www.stockinformer.co.uk/checker-ps4-playstation-4

The only place I have seen from there you can reliably get individual consoles is ebay.co.uk at £100 over retail.

Stores seems to be changing to only sell bundles of console+ two or more games, and even those are in stock for only minutes, except for the most expensive bundles of 5 or 6 games.

 

[mrklaw]

According to the similarity in total global sales between XBO and PS4 over the first few weeks, and Sony shipping to many more countries, including the Asia launch a few days ago. Sony is spread much more thinly than MS. To overcome this they would need to have significantly higher production overall, which does not appear to be the case.

If they have 1.2-1.3m production per month vs 1m for MS, then they could match whatever MS is shipping into the US, and just let other markets get by on the fumes.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

You seem very emotionally invested in this. No, GAF god FamousMortimer is shipment reports.

I'm invested in getting solid facts and figures not anecdotes. Sorry if you're looking for some kind of raging fanboy.

 

[Slashlen]

Being on shelves is not a problem unless they're collecting dust.

It suggests slower demand, which may be a problem long term. For December, it's purely a supply issue.

 

[Uno Venova]

Now I'm already waiting for Dec NPD because people are making up their minds on the sizes of shipments based on no data.

The same reason people pay 100s of dollars over MSRP on Ebay and Craigslist to get a console sooner rather than later. Impatience.

That's still paying over price for the console they want, not for a different one. Still I bet it's happening, just on a pretty small scale.

 

[Y2Kev]

If they have 1.2-1.3m production per month vs 1m for MS, then they could match whatever MS is shipping into the US, and just let other markets get by on the fumes.

Why wouldn't they have a similar number in production?

And Sony is going to have to ramp down soon. They are producing units in Japan and then air lifting them. They are probably 10-20% more expensive than units made in China and shipped by shitboat.

Sony is like QWOP incarnate in corporate form. Had they another shot at this, they'd have more production lines open in August and September. The window has passed.

They can't spend money ramping up now when they will be ramping down soon (they will eventually meet global demand...probably 1q). They just have to ride this out.

 

[Y2Kev]

It suggests slower demand, which may be a problem long term. For December, it's purely a supply issue.

It really doesn't though. It could suggest just more supply. We don't really know until we see the numbers.

 

[Krisprolls]

People comparing the Dreamcast to the xbone need a reality check though. Sega basically had to drop the Dreamcast for financial reasons. MS doesn't have too, the xbone division is just a drop in the ocean while they rake in the monopoly profits on Office. There is only a small risk in that the changes the new CEO has to implement could result in gutting the xbone division (though that has the same chance as doubling down imo).

The Xbox One is definitely not a Dreamcast. But it doesn't need to be for MS to decide they give up on it.

If Xbox doesn't make money it will be axed one day or the other. MS having billions doesn't mean their shareholders don't care about their money.

 

[Pound_lb003]

The one thing we can be sure of, is supply will NOT be as strong as launch - because they spent 2 months prior building stock and then released it en masse.

Everything now will be released in dribs and drabs. Who knows how many they could produce in just November.

 

[harSon]

Now I'm already waiting for Dec NPD because people are making up their minds on the sizes of shipments based on no data.
That's still paying over price for the console they want, not for a different one.

Well, that phenomenon (buying whatever's available) is indicative of parents buying a gift for their kids, and/or people on the fence with regard to which console to purchase.

 

[gcubed]

The one thing we can be sure of, is supply will NOT be as strong as launch - because they spent 2 months prior building stock and then released it en masse.

Everything now will be released in dribs and drabs. Who knows how many they could produce in just November.

if zomg is to be believed, 600k a week WW

if thats true, i expect a PR next week saying 4m sold after asia launch, also, if what he said is true, i expect January to barren since they are pulling Jan stock into December

 

[friskykillface]

I'm about to head to the mall for some shopping and I'll assume there won't be any PS4's and maybe 1 or 2 Xbox ones per store

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Why wouldn't they have a similar number in production?

And Sony is going to have to ramp down soon. They are producing units in Japan and then air lifting them. They are probably 10-20% more expensive than units made in China and shipped by shitboat.

Sony is like QWOP incarnate in corporate form. Had they another shot at this, they'd have more production lines open in August and September. The window has passed.

They can't spend money ramping up now when they will be ramping down soon (they will eventually meet global demand...probably 1q). They just have to ride this out.

They may not have similar numbers in production due to demand differences and the fact that Microsoft was only launching in select territories.

Yields could also be a factor since the Xbox One APU is larger meaning they get less chips per production run, and the ability to actually manufacture certain components may be limited since its sourced to only a few foundries.

 

[Slashlen]

It really doesn't though. It could suggest just more supply. We don't really know until we see the numbers.

I doubt they got that many into circulation, but you are correct, we don't know. It's all reading tea leaves and trying to piece things together until we get more numbers.

And Sony is going to have to ramp down soon. They are producing units in Japan and then air lifting them. They are probably 10-20% more expensive than units made in China and shipped by shitboat.

I think you're right. Didn't Sony estimate 5 million sales between now and March? Even if they lowballed it a bit(let's say 6m), we've already seen over a third of the stock sold from now until then. It's been 1 month since launch, and we got more than 3 to go.

 

[mrklaw]

Why wouldn't they have a similar number in production?

And Sony is going to have to ramp down soon. They are producing units in Japan and then air lifting them. They are probably 10-20% more expensive than units made in China and shipped by shitboat.

Sony is like QWOP incarnate in corporate form. Had they another shot at this, they'd have more production lines open in August and September. The window has passed.

They can't spend money ramping up now when they will be ramping down soon (they will eventually meet global demand...probably 1q). They just have to ride this out.

They wouldn't have the same number in production precisely because Sony have extra Japan capacity running. Otherwise weren't they both pegged at around 1m per month coming out of China?

 

[harSon]

It suggests slower demand, which may be a problem long term. For December, it's purely a supply issue.

It could suggest slower demand, but is that really an issue? The Xbox One and Playstation 4 are shattering launch records when viewed independent of one another. We've never had this many consoles pushed into store shelves at one time before.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Another thing is that Sony may not want to ramp down on production.

1.25 million per month is 15 million per year. Not an unreasonable amount for them to target. I can see them shifting production lines outside of Japan, however, but increasing capacity in China.

Sony reached pretty close to that number in FY10 and FY11 for the PS3, and demand for PS4 seems to be larger than PS3 right out of the gate.

 

[gcubed]

It could suggest slower demand, but is that really an issue? The Xbox One and Playstation 4 are shattering launch records when viewed independent of one another. We've never had this many consoles pushed into store shelves at one time before.

no no no, there HAS to be a loser, and if you aren't first, you may as well drop out of the market

 

[Kibbles]

My Sams Club has had the same stock in for 3 days now, I'd check them if you got one near you. Still got around 5 or so actually. Unfortunately it's 499 here and not 479 like costc

 

[Teddified]

I like how threads about finding consoles turn into a Demand/Supply Issue discussion these days.

It's kinda like threads turning into Final Fantasy lists or the best one after someone mentions their favorite one.

Btw FF8.

 

[BrokenIcarus]

Yeah everything is basically speculation without numbers and it sucks we won't be getting any untill mid-january and that's only for USA, but i think healthy speculation is fine especially for a site like GAF.

 

[Pound_lb003]

I like how threads about finding consoles turn into a Demand/Supply Issue discussion these days.

It's kinda like threads turning into Final Fantasy lists or the best one after someone mentions their favorite one.

Btw FF8.

Not really, it's crowdsourced anecdotal evidence.

If 500 people from the US were to post about their local store, you could even start compiling the findings and taking them vaguely seriously.

 

[MrMephistoX]

I like how threads about finding consoles turn into a Demand/Supply Issue discussion these days.

It's kinda like threads turning into Final Fantasy lists or the best one after someone mentions their favorite one.

Btw FF8.

Pretty much fanboy denial in both camps. Everyone should be happy the industry is healthy and not migrating to iOS.

I will say though I'm genuinely curious why we haven't seen sky high prices on eBay yet if it's a supply issue.

 

[Goodacre0081]

Fastest selling console.

maybe "fastest selling" means the XB1's are closer to the the check-out than other consoles.

 

[Slashlen]

It could suggest slower demand, but is that really an issue? The Xbox One and Playstation 4 are shattering launch records when viewed independent of one another. We've never had this many consoles pushed into store shelves at one time before.

Well, mostly an "issue" in terms of keeping up with PS4. In absolute terms, we can't really know about either console right now. The numbers right now show us the early adopter crowd is really hungry for new consoles. At a certain point all of those people will have one, and we'll see if everyone else has an interest too. I think they will, but it's possible Xbox could have a decent lull if they run out of early adopters sooner.

If I were to play devil's advocate, I would argue that these numbers just mean that the systems are going to burn through the early adopters faster and will crash sooner and harder, just like the Wii U did. I don't think that's happening though.

 

[mugoldeneagle03]

Late to the party but my local Best Buy (Milwaukee) had no PS4s, 15-20 Xbones & only 4-5 sold at store opening. Next week PS4 is advertised so I expect a few shipments this coming week

 

[Lynn616]

Not really, it's crowdsourced anecdotal evidence.

If 500 people from the US were to post about their local store, you could even start compiling the findings and taking them vaguely seriously.

Still couldnt take it seriously because you have no idea if the 500 people are telling the truth.

 

[Imperfected]

Why would they do that though? Rush to market? Lack of manpower to bring a damn TV guide to more than one or two markets? Don't give a shit? Seems incredibly short sighted to develop and market a box as an all-in-one and yet it is only that in the US

There aren't necessarily comparable services and systems in place everywhere they sell the console. The US cable network is kind of an odd duck, when you get right down to it, and most countries that built their network infrastructure after the US aren't beholden to the same sort of idiotic choices we made over here.

As to why they would develop the box in the first place full-well knowing that they wouldn't be able to offer comparable services everywhere, my impression has been that they (initially) felt their advantage going into this generation was large enough they could sell the box almost anywhere on the back of its primary functions alone, and the multimedia aspects were mostly intended as a way to diversify their market within territories where it was already strong.

So, basically they thought people in Spain or Mexico wouldn't care whether or not they got those extra features - and thus that it wouldn't hurt their bottom line - and that it would give them a chance to selling to non-gamers in the US/UK markets. (At the end of the day, they never completely gave up on chasing the Wii's audience.)

 

[statham]

The Xbox One is definitely not a Dreamcast. But it doesn't need to be for MS to decide they give up on it.

If Xbox doesn't make money it will be axed one day or the other. MS having billions doesn't mean their shareholders don't care about their money.

This came up with the original Xbox, the Xbox 360 and now with the Xbox One. Xbox One is off to the strongest start of all 3 and is breaking even at cost or for a small profit, something the first two lost a couple hundred per each console sold for awhile. This is the console that will be very profitable, even if it doesn't beat Sony in consoles sold.

 

[ViciousDS]

Easiest way I see it to find a ps4 is just amazon notifications or gaf posting about amazon notifications lol

That's how I got my buddies quick and easy.

 

[Giant Panda]

Another thing is that Sony may not want to ramp down on production.

1.25 million per month is 15 million per year. Not an unreasonable amount for them to target. I can see them shifting production lines outside of Japan, however, but increasing capacity in China.

Sony reached pretty close to that number in FY10 and FY11 for the PS3, and demand for PS4 seems to be larger than PS3 right out of the gate.

I agree, Sony's going to need more than 12 million PS4s year. That's about what PS3 did during its prime, and all indications point to PS4 being easily above that. We also have to remember that the PS4 is selling them much more global market than the PS3 did originally. Sales for each country might not be that different from last generation for PlayStation, but Sony has launched in more countries earlier.

 

[Imperfected]

This came up with the original Xbox, the Xbox 360 and now with the Xbox One. Xbox One is off to the strongest start of all 3 and is breaking even at cost or for a small profit, something the first two lost a couple hundred per each console sold for awhile. This is the console that will be very profitable, even if it doesn't beat Sony in consoles sold.

Possibly. They still need to make up the massive amount of money they're dumping into advertising, exclusivity deals, and under-selling first party software. The fact they're technically profitable per unit sold does not mean the entire enterprise will be profitable regardless of sales, they still have minimum sales targets they need to hit to achieve overall profitability.

Those should be considerably lower than they were for the 360, though some of the statements from MS employees early on about their sales expectations for this generation make me worry. Hopefully, they've budgeted accordingly that they can start seeing overall profit at 40,000,000 units sold, but I have a feeling that they actually aimed at 60,000,000 due to overconfidence in the brand value and their original (pre-180) vision during development.

At any rate, if they continue their current sales trends throughout the generation they shouldn't have too much trouble hitting those numbers. This should be their most profitable hardware generation, provided they don't overspend trying to "win".

 

[CyclopsRock]

Still couldnt take it seriously because you have no idea if the 500 people are telling the truth.

It just reduces the overall veracity, it doesn't invalidate it. Even with just anecdotal evidence, the greater the number of people polled, the lower the chances of an inaccurate representation via lies, conspiracy or mistake. With only one or two people that's very high. With millions, it's much lower. With those who have reported on GAF? Well it's up to you, but it isn't useless.

 

[Replicant]

Why were there any people in line for Xboxes?

It makes their story sound more dramatic. A tale to tell their grandson one day.

 

[N.Domixis]

This came up with the original Xbox, the Xbox 360 and now with the Xbox One. Xbox One is off to the strongest start of all 3 and is breaking even at cost or for a small profit, something the first two lost a couple hundred per each console sold for awhile. This is the console that will be very profitable, even if it doesn't beat Sony in consoles sold.

Lol at xb one release being the strongest. You shouldnt take major spinson's stats seriously. The console breaking records is the ps4 not the xbox.

 

[Steroyd]

According to shipment reports. People here seem to think X1s are languishing on shelves, but they are not.

Maybe not but if Xbox One's are selling out at a slower rate, then that would give MS more time to restock before the shelf is empty.

 

[Bsigg12]

Lol at xb one release being the strongest. You shouldnt take major spinson's stats seriously. The console breaking records is the ps4 not the xbox.

What? The Xbox One outsold both the Xbox and the Xbox 360's launches. 909k is nothing to scoff at either.

 

[Kysen]

There is no way Sony will be able to keep up supply with all the countries they have released in. I expect to see heavy delays in the smaller markets for a few months till demand wanes in US/EU.

 

[N.Domixis]

What? The Xbox One outsold both the Xbox and the Xbox 360's launches. 909k is nothing to scoff at either.

Lol never mind I read It as Xbox one Having a stronger release the ps4. But from the Xbox family it is the best launch.

 

[Bsigg12]

Lol never mind I read It as Xbox one Having a stronger release the ps4. But from the Xbox family it is the best launch.

Oh ok

 

[Colonel Nasty]

Lol never mind I read It as Xbox one Having a stronger release the ps4. But from the Xbox family it is the best launch.

They moved 2 million in less than 3 weeks when it took the 360 5 months. Doing this at $500 and the stigma from its initial reveal. I don't see how the Xbox is in trouble.

 

[Skeff]

Why wouldn't they have a similar number in production?

And Sony is going to have to ramp down soon. They are producing units in Japan and then air lifting them. They are probably 10-20% more expensive than units made in China and shipped by shitboat.

Sony is like QWOP incarnate in corporate form. Had they another shot at this, they'd have more production lines open in August and September. The window has passed.

They can't spend money ramping up now when they will be ramping down soon (they will eventually meet global demand...probably 1q). They just have to ride this out.

I'm not sure they will be ramping down anytime soon, AFAIK they are not air freighting just the Japan units but also Chinese units that were originally intended for February. The increase in cost is around $15 from going from ship to air. I think they could be changing production from Japan to China though at some point if it becomes clear >1m units per month would be necessary.

Given their current shipping trends it appears that Sony are shipping up to 600k per week during December for up to 2.5m for the month, this is according to a supply chain analyst of course:

Basically he thinks Sony are just bringing forwards all of January's shipment volume (which would leave about now by boat) to get units on shelves before Xmas. So, err, yes. He said 300k per week should arrive globally by regular sea based shipments in December (set off early November) and a further 300k per week by air that sets off on a daily basis from Shenzhen cargo airport. He noted that shipping volume (and bulk pricing) has dipped on routes with companies regularly used by Sony, which he said is indicative of Sony air freighting stock.

Until Jan 6th is what he estimates, then they will trickle air shipments and let the regular sea based shipments catch up over about a month.

I Have no Idea how many XB1's are being shipped but I would be surprised if they came close to 2.5m WW, but I think NA is close, like with XB1 shipping more. January/February stock would be low for PS4's and potentially a sales boost in march as there are quite a few so they would likely need to keep up stock as EU mainland retailers are already advising "Pre-orders" coming in now will likely be fulfilled in February, all of which I think means the supply chain will have to stay up for quite a while as demand is incredible.

I would guess that Sony are producing 1.2m per month and XB1 is producing 1m per month, based only on the launch shipments and that we know they are producing in Japan aswell. 1.2m per month is 14.4 million in a year, or more importantly over the course of 13 months is 15.6m which would be reasonable for the first 13 months of a console including 2 Holiday periods.

Anyway, I think I've gone on a bit of a ramble, but hopefully I've explained why I don't think they will be stepping down production until potentially next November and that I think sony are supplying more than MS without producing many more units.

Honestly I think NPD depends entirely on XB1 sales in the week after Christmas as both consoles will sell out for Christmas presents on the 24th.

 

[Guevara]

GAF it happened to me: Saw two Xbox Ones sitting in the display case at the new Target in San Francisco this afternoon.

An older dude came up and bought one, then I heard him ask for Ghosts.

 

[Heysoos]

So in case anyone cares, quick update from when I got out. Of the 110 X1s we had, we were down to under 30 when I left, 2 hours later my friend texts me and tells me we're out. District wise out of the 1700 we had, we were down to around 400 left when I left and in the low 100s when my friend texted me. If there really isn't demand for the Xbox Ones, they still seem sell out weekend after weekend the day they go on sale. ¯\_(&#12484_/¯

 

[Imperfected]

GAF it happened to me: Saw two Xbox Ones sitting in the display case at the new Target in San Francisco this afternoon.

An older dude came up and bought one, then I heard him ask for Ghosts.

Did you pull him aside and (angrily) explain to him how he's everything wrong with gaming and should be playing Toki Tori?

 

[Bsigg12]

So in case anyone cares, quick update from when I got out. Of the 110 X1s we had, we were down to under 30 when I left, 2 hours later my friend texts me and tells me we're out. District wise out of the 1700 we had, we were down to around 400 left when I left and in the low 100s when my friend texted me. If there really isn't demand for the Xbox Ones, they still seem sell out weekend after weekend the day they go on sale. ¯_(&#12484_/¯

Honestly, if people don't expect both systems to be sold out relatively quickly right now then they are kidding themselves. It's the holidays, people are going to buy the hottest, hardest to find items. The stock numbers you reported would be much more interesting to see how they went in April or May.

 

[Majmun]

A friend texted me this.

No PS4s. Some Xbox Ones. Central NJ

Could be empty boxes

 

[Lynn616]

So in case anyone cares, quick update from when I got out. Of the 110 X1s we had, we were down to under 30 when I left, 2 hours later my friend texts me and tells me we're out. District wise out of the 1700 we had, we were down to around 400 left when I left and in the low 100s when my friend texted me. If there really isn't demand for the Xbox Ones, they still seem sell out weekend after weekend the day they go on sale. ¯\_(&#12484_/¯

Best Buy?

 

[Iacobellis]

Could be empty boxes

That's quite the stretch.

 

[timepiece]

So in case anyone cares, quick update from when I got out. Of the 110 X1s we had, we were down to under 30 when I left, 2 hours later my friend texts me and tells me we're out. District wise out of the 1700 we had, we were down to around 400 left when I left and in the low 100s when my friend texted me. If there really isn't demand for the Xbox Ones, they still seem sell out weekend after weekend the day they go on sale. ¯\_(&#12484_/¯

I find it funny how most people here want to believe the XB1 isn't selling. Since it's the holiday season, it's a simple case of putting out as much supply as possible. Microsoft's strategy so far has been on point.