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PC: LoL top, Dota 2 highest growth, MMOs down, $25B 2014 [DFC interview]
- Thread starter ScepticMatt
- Start date
Agreed. I admire them from afar, but I could not afford to get as caught up in one as people seem to. Plus, my interests are way too varied.
QuantumZebra
Member
I tried really, really hard to get into LoL. I just couldn't stand "leveling" up a character and then losing them. To me it seemed like wedging RPG elements into a RTS... or something of the like. What is the appeal here? Maybe I didn't give it enough time? (Maybe I should try Dota 2)?
I feel like im being left out of this big hysteria but I just don't get the fuss
I feel like im being left out of this big hysteria but I just don't get the fuss
Well, Dota has the same mechanic of leveling the heroes over a match to just go back to 1 the next, but you do get all the characters to play off the bat and don't have to unlock them.
Turin Turambar
Member
And even if I love Smite, the combat and movement is more like WoW than a "real" action game, so there is still space in the market for a game that successfully melds a true big blockbuster action game with free movement, aiming, jump, etc with the MOBA concepts. The one that gets it will be the next game going viral, Dayz style.
I tried MNC (or was it SMNC? I think it was SMNC) but the too front-loaded tutorial kind of threw me off (hey let's show you all this weapons, skills, variations, and all the special extra -several- rules of the map in one go, and then throw you to the real game!) and the third person camera and gunplay weren't up to the high normal shooter standards.
And I have to say, the art style was a bit ugly.
Interfectum
Member
Titanfall seems like it's pulling some ideas from mobas.
Chris Murphy
Member
This is a post I made in 2009 when 'PC gaming is dead' was an actual thing.
Garry Whitta had just been on 1up yours being quite dismissive of PC gaming which all of the cast agreed with.
Glad I was right.
Garry Whitta had just been on 1up yours being quite dismissive of PC gaming which all of the cast agreed with.
Glad I was right.
Turin Turambar
Member
Just think of a shooter where everyone starts with a pistol, then over time they can use machine guns, shotguns, and finally rocket launchers. That's leveling up on a Moba game.
They key is the pressure. Pressure of doing it well and not failing, because if you fail, the enemy will unlock their toys faster than you, and use it to even unlock their bigger toys (leveling up faster) even earlier than you. It's the thrill of being in the edge near failure and success that is awesome.
It is true they aren't games for anyone. It's about high competitive, high pressure action and how rewarding it can be, it isn't exactly a relaxing game (in comparison, even high pace action games like FFA quake 3 could be, in a way, just enjoying the random carnage). But that doesn't mean they are only for people that will invest hundreds of hours and play like mad, if you don't, all the big moba games have very decent matchmaking system that will pair up you with other players of the same skill level (though people love to complain about matchmaking, it fails much less than they want to believe).
Interfectum
Member
Yeah I would love to know how much money Valve is bringing in.
i had the same impression about the genre, until i played the DOTA2 tutorial
now i respect it a whole lot more, it's also fun to play with the right people. i still don't like to spectate any of it though.
Moba has more in common with FPS. The care bear mmo's like wow are gonna get replaced by more hardcore games that have more action oriented battle systems. Day Z is one example of this.
Yep.
I think a F2P moba fps could be big on console if done right. Its gonna happen and the first developer that gets it is gonna have a huge money maker. Monday night Combat guys tried and failed, but a better team will get it to work.
Interfectum
Member
I got into Dota 2 for a couple months and really learned what I needed to learn and now I can play a match or two a week and feel satisfied. You don't have to swear off other games forever, just learn the genre enough to be able to play casually.
Not that Steam isn't successful, of course (it very much is), but I suspect a lot of people here overestimate what percentage of the market it dominates.
Of course, there is UPlay and Origin and Good ol Games and other platforms which directly compete with Steam, but it doesn't stop there; consider the Chinese market (it's huge), the Korean market (very large), Blizzard's Battle.net, Riot's League of Legends share, and perhaps most importantly, browser games and casual fare that are basically invisible to most of GAF. Farmville isn't the sensation it was 4 years ago, but Facebook and social gaming are still a very big deal.
The PC platform is highly varied, and the consequence of that is that no platform, even one as popular as Steam, can dominate the landscape.
Interfectum
Member
Yeah I think people are getting sick of the theme park MMOs and are ready to dig into some more compelling ways to play together.
Interfectum
Member
Sure but even if Valve only accounts for 1/10 of that number, that is a huge amount considering their size.
The problem with a lot of MMO's is that it's too easy to play them. When everyone that plays the game can solo through it with no problems and you face no danger from other players, there is no incentive to meet people and form relationships in the game based around the game itself.
TheLetdown
Member
First off, play Dota 2. From my perspective, Dota is the cleaner, more focused experience. Full disclosure: I've played Dota since the WC3 days, but suuuuuuper casually, with large gaps of taking it and leaving it. I'm currently on the "leave it" stage of Dota 2 right now.
But secondly, adjust your perspective when you try it. Don't think of it as making a bunch of progress just to lose it. Think, instead, that you get the entire MMO experience refined into a single match. The choices you make that were negative? Don't make those choices next time. Stick with the ones that stick. You get a re-roll everytime, but the long-term investment is with you, mechanically and in decsion-making. Early on, stick with the guides. The decisions you need to learn are going to be when to push a wave, pull a creep, chase a kill, or leave it all and play defensively. Later, you can start to look into the theorycrafting behind how you play your character and what you want out of it. Half of the fun, for me at least, is in getting lost in it all and sort of obsessed. Again, my obsessions come and go.
As for the recommendations of Smite, I'd have to give a "Nay" to it. I actually felt like I had less control, and pewing waves felt like blindfiring between the occasional chance to play mind games with the opponent, which is where the true MOBA experience lies. I played early, though. Maybe it's more visceral, now.
Monday and Super Monday Night Combat were just superb, though. It helps that I was consistenly good at the game, for whatever reason. I'm usually that dude who is like "Good enough, YEAH!" at the end of a match, but I carried a lot in those games. Some wrong turns were made by Uber in terms of support on both games (Steam trading for SMNC should have been destined!) but during their hayday, they were both 10/10. I would not recommend them now, though, due strictly to playerbase.
Turin Turambar
Member
It was always funny to me how the three big popular games in pc are WoW, Minecraft and LoL, and the three are outside of Steam! And I'm not even counting Crossfire or other eastern games, or WoT, and not counting casual games. Lots of big successes outside Steam.
It's only since a few months ago that we can say there is a Steam game with many million users: Dota 2.
Shao Kahn Brewing a Stew
Banned
DOTA 2 doesn't require any investment at all if you've remotely played ant RTS or RPG. My brother wanted to get into MOBA so he downloaded both LoL and DOTA 2. In the end, DOTA 2 is much more friendlier and cleaner to get into. You don't need to pick all heroes or know everything at once.
Start a bot match on easy. When you win, start a bot match on medium. When you win, you can now join online and kick ass and take names.
wargaming.net (world of tanks/warplanes/warships) is another colossus most people forget about, they make hundreds of millions a year
Booter
Member
And before MMOs it was RTS. and before RTS it was FPS. That's how this industry is.
GuitarAtomik
Member
You should give it another go. I do not like DOTA2 or any other Diablo style type games because of the abstract player control. The direct control you get in Smite let me enjoy the other aspects of a MOBA and it's one of my favorite games at the moment.
Phrozenflame500
Member
About what I expected.
Never would have guessed MOBA's would grow so big. I couldn't get into them, too much effort and not enough enjoyment.
Never would have guessed MOBA's would grow so big. I couldn't get into them, too much effort and not enough enjoyment.
Up until a bit before the International 3 I thought I would hate Dota 2 but I started looking into it, watching streams and such. As well as playing against bots. From there I was hooked, I loved everything about it. Now I play pretty much everyday and it's probably one of my favorite games ever.
the big and popular strategy games, shooters, and MMOs never died and are still huge, it's just that all the me-too uninspired bandwagon-riders flamed out and moved on to another genre
right now everyone's trying to make zombie-based survival games, it seems, but i imagine day z and rust will be the big winners there
I don't think this is that revolutionary of a thought. For the monster games, Steam isn't as big a deal as they will be big with or without Steam (certainly larger with Steam, but whatever). But for everything else, Steam helps a bunch in getting exposure to people who wouldn't otherwise see their game.
The reason Steam matters more and more over time is that the little games are where the growth is and where the creativity is.
Blame Riot for that one. Valve has tried to call Dota 2 an ARTS (action RTS) but it hasn't caught on.
Could you post the source to the market share per platform information, I haven't seen many detailed reports on it.
ScepticMatt
Member
($18.6B 2011, $20B 2012, $25B 2014 forecast)
Edit: Broken transparency on dark theme, but Opiate already posted another version
The PC Gaming alliance is the best we have for estimating PC gaming revenues: http://pcgamingalliance.org/
Relevant chart from 2012:
Estimates from the same year by DFC Intelligence (the analyst group cited in this thread) also reached the 20B figure:
http://www.develop-online.net/news/pc-games-achieved-record-20bn-revenue-in-2012/0114418
Interfectum
Member
Kinda crazy how badly Diablo 3 stomped Halo 4.
More importantly, they're slaughtering sacred MOBA cows left and right in an attempt to make something with an easier entry curve.
It's going to be interesting to see what they come up with, since MOBA vets constantly crow about how you can't have a high skill ceiling without a steep initial learning curve. Even if what they do end up with resembles "Babby's First MOBA" or whatever the tryhard crowd will inevitably call it, it's going to probably hit big anyway. I think there's a big market of people who want to play these games but don't want to spend dozens of hours getting crushed while they wrap their head around the mechanics.
It's a great game. I'm on a break from it for the moment while I get a little DOTA 2 in, but it was easily my most-played game in 2013.
Really upsets me that most people won't even look at it once they hear it's a MOBA, since the over-the-shoulder direct control and emphasis on everything being a skill shot makes it feel like a very different kind of game.
I wonder if the Steam machines might allow the PC to start making inroads on traditional multiplat territory... which is to say, with a good machine, multiplats are always better on the PC, but a lot of people think PCs are too complicated/whatever, and so they settle for an inferior version.
If the Steam machines really nail ease-of-use, though, I think there are traditional console users who would be willing to pay a premium for a premium experience, just so long as they don't have to deal with that "PC jank."
If the Steam machines really nail ease-of-use, though, I think there are traditional console users who would be willing to pay a premium for a premium experience, just so long as they don't have to deal with that "PC jank."
Interfectum
Member
I think HotS is going to be big for Blizzard. I'm a huge Dota 2 fan but I can easily see myself jumping over to that for some quick gaming. Hell I do that now with Hearthstone.
Lets be real for a minute. Calling it MOBA is just as wrong. The name was invented by Riot, but not the genre.
I don't think it's a coincidence that in an effort to make it easier to Solo MMO's / focusing on raids instead of exploring the world, they became less popular. I feel like improvements in social aspects / player interaction would help revive MMO's a lot more than making grinding more pretty/convenient.
GuitarAtomik
Member
I think the fact that the hardware isn't locked in any way is going to keep it from encroaching much on to consoles. People have always been able to buy pre-built PCs. In that regard, SteamOS is a bigger deal as it makes it accessible for TVs but at the same time is constrained by the games needing to be Linux compatible. So yeah, not that it won't be successful, but I don't see it making much of a dent in the console market.
-tetsuo-
Unlimited Capacity
But how many of these PC dollars are made on AAA cover shooters, though? PC stay losing.
DonasaurusRex
Online Ho Champ
MMO's fail because they try and blur the lines of the genre...in the end EQ had it down pact and so did WoW before Cata. If you want your mmo to survive you gotta make it for MMO players not someone who wants to log in and ultimately play an Action Adventure rpg. They need to go play Zelda.
Corronchilejano
Member
Every single Halo game before Halo 4 was released between Diablo 2 and Diablo 3. A hell of a lot of people wanted Diablo 3 since more than 10 years ago.
Thanks for the information. It's great to see how well the PC market is doing, and continuing to grow. I'd be curious to see the impact the new consoles have made, and more importantly how the industry will shift with VR (Oculus Rift).
ScepticMatt
Member
No idea about "cover shooters", but FPS are doing really well on PC, beating MMOs in 2013 revenue. Though a big part of that revenue are F2P games like Crossfire.
IDC/DFC/Gartner predict that PC will continue to be ahead. Better than expected revenues have motivated DFC to increase their forecast for 2014 by $3B. We'll probably see 2013 revenue numbers on Feb 11. Still, PS4/XB1 are doing just fine so far.
As for VR, I don't think it cause a industry shift until it becomes more affordable.
Maybe it's not completely correct but it's established and everybody knows that kind of game as MOBA, so I don't see a problem calling similar games as Dota this way.
What would fit better in your opinion?
Turin Turambar
Member
I would like something like Titanfall, but with a class system like BF or TF2.
In fact, one the the key components of Moba games is the class variety. Think for a moment how it would be a fps not with soldier/engineer/sniper/support classes but with much more. The closest thing we have is TF2 with nine classes. Imagine it with 50 classes, with lots of room for variation. Stealth classes, melee combat classes, long range classes, tanky classes, etc.
Wouldn't be interesting that game?
That would be awesome xD