I would laugh if this happened.
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270 to win: Post your Election predictions!
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I would laugh if this happened.
prag16
Banned
In what universe are Iowa and Florida LOCKS for Hilldawg?Clinton's floor
Clinton's ceiling
8 X 11 Printer Paper
Member
jediyoshi
Member
Pretty much mine. Hell, most of these predictions just come down to whether you think she'll win Florida or not.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
This is both plausible, and delicious. I'm going with this.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Florida early voting is looking insurmountable for Trump to overcome on election day
maquiladora
Member
prag16
Banned
Silver had an article a few days ago analyzing historical early voting and final results. The correlation is positive, but very weak.
(But I guess gaf considers Silver a Trump shill at this point though.)
ShironRedshift
Member
Hmm...
Something like this:
-Ohio and Iowa will definitely be both be down to the wire, but Trump probably manages to take Iowa while Clinton will BARELY manage to squeak out a win in Ohio. Ohio is almost certain to be the Florida of this year; going to be a nail-biter and come down to a very low 4 digit margin.
-Based on early voting data, Nevada and Florida are both definitely Clinton.
-NC will also go Clinton as both polling and EV data there are positive for her but voting suppression nonsense, especially in primarily black areas, will hurt and it will wind up being a bit closer than polling suggests
-Georgia and Arizona will also both be nail biters. Similar to NC, the gutting of the VRA and the closing of many polling locations in Georgia and the expensiveness of the media market there prohibiting Clinton from making much of an actual pitch there will mean that Trump will take it, but it will definitely be close. While Arizona also suffers from much of the same problems the fact that Clinton has made a stronger moves there in combination with strong Latino turnout will be enough to push her over the edge while she falls short in Georgia.
-Alaska will surprise. It's elastic due to the lower population, there have been a number of polls that look good for Clinton there and Trump's unfavorables and low R turnout will be enough to give Clinton the win here. Not quite as sure of this one as I was a week ago or so though as the FBI and Comey stuff may have re-excited the R-base enough to move it back to Trump, but it's really impossible to say.
-Early voting data in Texas has been very good to the D's so far. Don't think it will be enough to push Clinton over the edge unfortunately, but I do think that Texas will be too close to call at closing, which itself will be a win.
-CO, PA, VA, NH--not too much to worry about with these. Clinton should take them all without too much worry. The only odd one out there would be NH which has had some bad polls for Clinton recently, but she should still eek it out just fine.
Something like this:
-Ohio and Iowa will definitely be both be down to the wire, but Trump probably manages to take Iowa while Clinton will BARELY manage to squeak out a win in Ohio. Ohio is almost certain to be the Florida of this year; going to be a nail-biter and come down to a very low 4 digit margin.
-Based on early voting data, Nevada and Florida are both definitely Clinton.
-NC will also go Clinton as both polling and EV data there are positive for her but voting suppression nonsense, especially in primarily black areas, will hurt and it will wind up being a bit closer than polling suggests
-Georgia and Arizona will also both be nail biters. Similar to NC, the gutting of the VRA and the closing of many polling locations in Georgia and the expensiveness of the media market there prohibiting Clinton from making much of an actual pitch there will mean that Trump will take it, but it will definitely be close. While Arizona also suffers from much of the same problems the fact that Clinton has made a stronger moves there in combination with strong Latino turnout will be enough to push her over the edge while she falls short in Georgia.
-Alaska will surprise. It's elastic due to the lower population, there have been a number of polls that look good for Clinton there and Trump's unfavorables and low R turnout will be enough to give Clinton the win here. Not quite as sure of this one as I was a week ago or so though as the FBI and Comey stuff may have re-excited the R-base enough to move it back to Trump, but it's really impossible to say.
-Early voting data in Texas has been very good to the D's so far. Don't think it will be enough to push Clinton over the edge unfortunately, but I do think that Texas will be too close to call at closing, which itself will be a win.
-CO, PA, VA, NH--not too much to worry about with these. Clinton should take them all without too much worry. The only odd one out there would be NH which has had some bad polls for Clinton recently, but she should still eek it out just fine.
In the universe where trump gets routed on election night
prag16
Banned
Not sure this sounds like an "insurmountable" situation.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/florida-early-voting-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-230788
Chezzymann
Member
My prediction. Basically 2012 but with Ohio and Iowa flipping red. Popular vote margin will end up being around 4-5%.
Knuckle Sandwich
Member
if i'm wrong i will blow myself.
Seems to be a consensus of sorts that Ohio is going to the Drumpf. Rust belt turning into the red belt.It's not surprising populist no-nothings like Trump and his lot are making in-roads there. 323-215 is the most likely final tally.
NC too turning into a swing state.
NC too turning into a swing state.
My Silly prediction
Mcmuffin Victory in Utah Sends the vote to Congress.
Michigan isn't a swing state.
Chezzymann
Member
What would happen if McDonalds publicly said that if McMullin wins Utah, they'll give free McMuffins to everyone? Would that influence anything?
You notice the trend, it's because it's a popular theory going on right now in the more right wing, alt-right circles. Something to do with Bernie I think.
Let them dream, basically.
Sounds illegal - vote buying
First time predicting.
I take it you are not American.
Morrigan Stark
Arrogant Smirk
Why do you have Minnesota as red?
lol nooooo
And you're doing it wrong, some states shouldn't be greyed out. Unless you're saying they're going to McMullin?
Also lol @ blue TX, GA
But that WA delegate that said he won't vote for Clinton tho.... Trump wins and I'm leaving out this bitch. This would be the worst timeline.
Eh I meant to quote the 269 269 map
Chezzymann
Member
Revised map, trump wins but the electoral map gives away his true nature
Texas is the real stretch on my map. Going with my gut feeling on that one. Basing that on what's going to be record hispanic turnout
The One and Done™;223120471 said:
No she isn't. Look at the early vote in FL, and come back and tell me if you is in danger of loosing. Only one of the three states you posted she is in danger of loosing(NH).
Edit: I keep flip flopping on Georgia, and Texas though. This is my hopium map. My more realistic map would be the same minus those two.
KenzinFive
Member
I live in South Florida and early voting is really big here. I'm hoping that since we have gone blue recently due to more young people and non-Cuban Hispanics moving here, it will balance out the Trump votes in the rest of the state. The older Cuban exile population has trended Republican in the past, but I think the younger generation (like myself) has moved away from that. Even with that, Trump is a step too far for a lot of Cubans here. My grandma who fled from Cuba is not voting for Trump, and I honestly think her son (my dad) is peeved about that. He listens to Hannity despite somewhat recognizing he's a shill, but my dad is all-in on the Hillary hate train.
Here's my pessimistic prediction:
Here's my optimistic prediction (gray for McMullin with Egg and Cheese):
I still worry about the "lying to the polls but secretly voting for Trump" vote though.
Here's my pessimistic prediction:
Here's my optimistic prediction (gray for McMullin with Egg and Cheese):
I still worry about the "lying to the polls but secretly voting for Trump" vote though.
airmangataosenai
Member
Pretty sure about all but Nevada.
Reposting from the other thread. I got 51/51 in 2012 using the same thought process.
Only two I don't feel confident about are Ohio and Iowa. Just some random thoughts on those below:
Ohio: Always a close one and I can't see it deviating from the winner of the entire election in this cycle. Kasich's lack of endorsement for Trump and Lebron backing Hillary should ink out a narrow victory for her.
Iowa: Hillary hasn't polled well here recently, Kerry lost it in 2004, and the demographic shifts towards minorities don't seem as relevant here.
ShooterMcGavin
Member
My prediction:
The "Oh, fuck me" prediction:
The "Oh, fuck me" prediction:
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
Randolph Freelander
Member
Real prediction:
My main goal is to see North Carolina go blue.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
This is my crazy estimate. Just spitballing, some may disagree.
A Link to the Past
Banned
Feeling optimistic about Ohio and Arizona; I don't think Iowa can be flipped though.
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