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270 to win: Post your Election predictions!
- Thread starter Mass Effect
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airmangataosenai
Member
North Carolina is the main one I noticed for the serious submissions.
Team Alucard
Banned
My actual prediction
My dream map
My dream map
A Link to the Past
Banned
My map is a special snowflake ;(
My actual prediction
My dream map
Red Minnesota would only happen in a dream, I agree.
Benzychenz
Member
How is Trump actually doing so well? Would he be able to make it this far in any other western country?
Minnesota? Red? What is this, 1972?
A Link to the Past
Banned
I think so. It's less about the competence or quality of the man, and more about the fact that he is saying what people want to hear (AKA, "telling it how it is").
rokkerkory
Member
Real prediction:
My main goal is to see North Carolina go blue.
Haha thats great
There are huge swaths of Americans that don't give a flying fuck about minorities and women.
Take a lesson from the history books and look at Hitler's rise to power.
Edit: Not comparing Trump to Hitler, but realize how easily manipulated we commoners can be when a loud man takes the stage.
My actual prediction
My dream map
Your actual prediction has Trump winning Nevada but losing the election, and your dream has Trump losing Nevada but winning the election?
FelixOrion
Poet Centuriate
lets go mcmuffin
GregLombardi
Member
Team Alucard
Banned
I don't think Trump can win NH, which means he can't win the election.
His only chance at this point is if the transit strike depresses Turnout enough in Philly for him to win PA.
As for the latter, it's my dream map. It's not something that I actually think will happen
My dream scenario is not a Trump blowout, but a narrow victory where the Democrats win the swing states with high latino populations, but he still wins because of white labor Democrats in the midwest completely rejecting Hillary Clinton.
GameplayWhore
Member
I made this using 538's swing state tool back around the Summer, probably after Trump was declared the R presumptive nominee before before Clinton was so declared for the D (though it had become pretty darn obvious due to critical demographics reliably not breaking for Bernie in the first several states).
I'm still pretty bullish on this map, though I'm no longer as sure about Iowa and stripey Nebraska going blue.
On the flipside, there are now a few states that seem much closer to blue than I'd expected given the early voting hubbub, somehow including Texas, Georgia, and (because of that guy who metaphorically kicked Gary in the pants) Utah.
My nightmare scenario:
(1) NH: the undecided voters break for Trump, not because they actually want him, but because they've already got "Clinton fatigue"
(2) PA: the SEPTA transit strike severely depresses the pro-Clinton turnout in Philadelphia and its suburbs
(3) FL: the state is already trending Trump and the increase in support among Latino voters is simply not enough to offset Clinton's depressed support among black voters.
(1) NH: the undecided voters break for Trump, not because they actually want him, but because they've already got "Clinton fatigue"
(2) PA: the SEPTA transit strike severely depresses the pro-Clinton turnout in Philadelphia and its suburbs
(3) FL: the state is already trending Trump and the increase in support among Latino voters is simply not enough to offset Clinton's depressed support among black voters.
Considering the polls were amazingly wrong in the DNC primaries, it's not farfetched at all.
Keep in mind that Pennsylvania doesn't have early voting, so everything on Election Day there. Pennsylvania's largest Exchange provider just announced that they're pulling out of it, which is going to push it even more to him.
I also believe there's a good amount of silent Trump supporters among Black and Latino Americans, as well as women, and they're not openly saying it because of fear of how they'll be looked at.
I just think overall that Trump has beaten expectations at every turn this election cycle, and I feel that this will be no different.
If Hillary was a great candidate like LBJ, yeah.
why does this fucking kill me so much
Princess Viola
Member
CAN'T STUMP THE TRUMP
(Real prediction)
(Real prediction)
You're right about that. Unfortunately for him, those certain demographics are the only ones he has, every other demographic hates him.
Glass Shark
Banned
These are the 2 most hated candidates in electoral history.
But for Clinton, she's under FBI investigation. And if she wins, she'll either be bogged down by the investigation to the point where she can't get anything done OR (and I hope this doesn't happen) Obama or herself will pardon her and people will revolt.
A Link to the Past
Banned
I just want Arizona to flip, if only to solidify it as a potential swing state for the coming years.
CaviarMeths
Member
Guess I'll throw my hat in here.
Georgia, Arizona, and Alaska are all going to be close as hell, but I'm giving them to Trump this time. They will be seriously in play for Dems in 2020. Texas in 2024. Unfortunately, I think Ohio is sliding red and will only get more difficult for Dems to reclaim in 2020. Iowa I think will be red this year, but back in play for Dems in 2020.
Egg McMuffin takes Utah by the skin of his bald head.
Georgia, Arizona, and Alaska are all going to be close as hell, but I'm giving them to Trump this time. They will be seriously in play for Dems in 2020. Texas in 2024. Unfortunately, I think Ohio is sliding red and will only get more difficult for Dems to reclaim in 2020. Iowa I think will be red this year, but back in play for Dems in 2020.
Egg McMuffin takes Utah by the skin of his bald head.
Henry Jones Jr
Member
I agree 100%. I can't believe that he is projected to win Iowa. It makes me embarrassed to live here. It doesn't match up with what I see at all, but I live in what is probably the most liberal county in the state.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
You think she wins Ohio but loses Florida and North Carolina?
ldcommando
Banned
Taking Trump for the upset. Btw do people bet on this? If so, how are the odds?
absolutely, yes
I also gave Hawaii to Trump
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Like a lot of people here, this is my prediction as well. I'm the least confident about Iowa, Ohio and Maine District 2.
Ray Wonder
Founder of the Wounded Tagless Children
That's what I was thinking, idk what it all means but it's pretty and looks like it took more effort than the others
Intheflorsh
Banned
My actual prediction
My dream map
I don't get why a blue state Nevada is your dream when you also think that a red state Nevada is actually going to happen. Do you just not like Nevada?
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
Which is a good point as well. What I'm still skeptical about is if that hate will translate into enough Hillary votes.
Man Called Aerodynamics
Member
Could have gone either way on NC but I'm trying to temper my optimism.
Have you seen the early vote results among latinos?
ShooterMcGavin
Member
Man, you guys are a lot more confident in a HillDawg victory than I am lol. Praying you're right.
CaviarMeths
Member
If news articles from yesterday are anything to go by, there's been record early voting in Nevada and Florida, possibly a couple other battlegrounds. Hispanics are pissed. Can't imagine why...
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