And_Gignac
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DRAMATIC
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270 to win: Post your Election predictions!
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Aaronrules380
Member
Is the message "Fuck minorities and actual progress, let's burn it all down and hope that maybe 50 years in the future once all of Trump's supreme court picks are dead change can occur?"
Aquavelvaman
Banned
So close, it's tough to call.
Aaronrules380
Member
If Trump wins we likely get a republican congress who either agree with Trump or are too afraid to risk their own reelection to stand up against him
Iowa is a lost cause, Democrats are behind on early voting.Mine is the same as the OP (though I made it a few days ago). I hope I'm wrong about Iowa and Ohio.
Ohio is going to be close.
If Trump wins he'd be able to shoot someone in the middle of Pennsylvania Avenue and not lose any support in the House.
Mackenzie 92
Member
Aaronrules380
Member
The advantage they get is not being kicked out of office by the same people who voted Trump into it
And_Gignac
Member
I think the evidence for this is right there atm. Sanders wouldnt be struggling as Hillary is.
prag16
Banned
You dont think there's a high chance of Hillary being impeached? Probably more likely she'd get impeached than Trump considering all her baggage. She will spend most of her term trying to shed that shroud of controversy, potentially leaving her impotent with no mandate to lead.
Aaronrules380
Member
we have no idea how Sanders would be doing because there were never really any serious attack or smear campaigns on him in the primaries. The guy has a lot of issues that'd make him incredibly unappealing to general election voters. And Hilary is still probably going to win, and I have way more confidence of her getting shit done in office than Sanders TBH
Aaronrules380
Member
Hilary being impeached is highly unlikely. You need a two thirds majority in the senate and there's no way the republicans will get that many seats in the Senate
You need a simple majority in the House to impeach, you need a 2/3 majority in the Senate to convict and remove from office. The latter is unlikely, the former is not.
Aaronrules380
Member
Fair enough, but you still can't achieve anything without the Senate
CaviarMeths
Member
A Clinton impeachment may be possible due to the fact that it's voted on solely in the House and requires a simple majority to pass. And with an R majority house, we all know they'd be more than happy to spend the next 4-8 years wasting everyone's time and money fucking that dog over and over.
But to actually get a conviction, a supermajority is required in the Senate. Not happening, even if the down ticket races are a disaster for Dems on Tuesday.
It didn't stop the House from impeaching her husband. There was never any chance they would get a conviction then either. A conviction wasn't the point, disrupting the function of government was.
I think we will see a lot of surprises on Tuesday night.
Not that surprising.
prag16
Banned
Whether you think all her baggage is "made up" or "nonsense" is immaterial. The reality is that it's extremely possible that she spends her entire term as a lame duck spending more time dodging controversy than doing anything productive.
You can complain how it's not fair, and the mean Republicans are out to get her. And even if that's true that's again immaterial. No other potential Democrat would face this unique situation. So bottom line, the Democrats fucked up royally nominating her. Full stop.
I certainly don't disagree with you.
Yeah. But by the same token, we've had 8 years of republicans trying to stop Obama from doing a single fucking thing every chance they could.
I don't think it matters which Democrat would be elected at this point, the mission would be the same: Stop everything they do. Lets not pretend republicans give a fuck about who it is.
Just easier this time with Hillary.
If it was Bernie they'd be foaming out the mouth to stop the Jew and his Socialism/Communism/Islamofascism.
Etc. etc.
That's exactly the rationale used by one of the local radio talk show hosts here in Orlando. He made a bet (I don't remember the original number but it's now up to $100) that Trump would win. On the last show they said it was brilliant because either he would be $100 richer, or Hillary would be President. Either way he technically wins (though if the former happens we would really all lose).
QuantumZebra
Member
There's nothing to impeach her over
Trump's 13 sexual assault allegations, and fraud case are a different story
gutter_trash
Banned
hoping for McMuffin to bruise Trump's ego in Utah for the LOLz
*edit, found the 3rd party button option
prag16
Banned
There's nothing and then there's "nothing".
You can claim everyone else is biased and/or with ill intentions all you want. But you can't deny the reality of the situation. A cloud hangs over her, and it will follow her to the oval office and only thicken once she gets there. That's a fact. Whether you think that's "fair" or not.
Captainbojanglesiii
Banned
.
Generalpsyduck
Banned
Is it actually that close?
So close, it's tough to call.
also trump winning illinois and California? Lol!
CrispyBoar
Banned
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
That's what I did.
thestopsign
Member
Here is my prediction with shading.
Lightest shade = 2 point margin
Middle shade = 2-5 point margin
Dark shade = >5 point margin
Liu Kang Baking A Pie
Member
You guys are way too confident in North Carolina and Florida. What polls are showing them going blue?
Edit: I should say recently. Look at the way those states have quickly turned red right before the election.
Edit: I should say recently. Look at the way those states have quickly turned red right before the election.
It won't be close. +6 margin nationally.
51-49 senate majority; NV, WI, IL, PA, NH, NC for +5 pickups.
I made exactly the same map before seeing yours.
I think Ohio will come around for the Dems in the end thanks to Clinton's ground game. Arizona will most likely flip due to high hispanic voter turnout. Georgia will be close, but ultimately I feel Clinton will fall just short of nabbing it.
High hispanic and minority turnout in Florida will result in her winning the state. The same applies to North Carolina even though the state GOP through their actions in the last year or so is probably making things worse for the top of the ticket there. A lot of polls will be way off the final result in both states.
Here's what I think it will be (I may change it Monday night/Tuesday morning, but will keep my old prediction up):
Here's Clinton's best case scenario:
Here's her worst case scenario:
In any event, it's highly likely she is going to win. Should be intresting to see how it plays out.
I'm worried about the Senate more than Hillary. : (
Here's Clinton's best case scenario:
Here's her worst case scenario:
In any event, it's highly likely she is going to win. Should be intresting to see how it plays out.
I'm worried about the Senate more than Hillary. : (
VanCityGamer
Member
Anyone who thinks Trump will win is dreaming. Hillary will win big.
bigly even
The New York Times just posted a calculation suggesting that Hillary will win North Carolina by six points (and that her lead among people who have already voted is more like ten). We shall see, of course.
Anyway, my prediction:
Trump's appeal to dumber voters may be a bit of an outlier, but I think this may, in the long-term, be auguring a trend where Democratic strength in the midwest slides further as the rust belt rusts further, while the coastal south and the southwest become more Democratic thanks to Hispanics and educated white voters.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
Perhaps. I haven't ruled out that I'm in a bad dream.
uncelestial
Member
So close, it's tough to call.
What is this, the anti-map? Trump takes the entire Pacific corridor and Hillary takes most of the bible belt?
Have I been trolled?
gutter_trash
Banned
can someone explain to me how some of you guys get Michigan red?
I didn't even notice that michigan was red in my map. I never clicked on michigan. What the hell.
CaviarMeths
Member
Bernie Sanders won Michigan in the primaries. Some people are really convinced that the 12 or 13 Bernie-or-busters still kicking around will flip the state over to Trump.
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