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[Deleted member 752119]

So they're actually expecting 15 million copies sold?

Probably not. I'm sure there will be a lot of dlc to help make money, and they're hoping it will be a major franchise and sequels should cost less to develop and market since it's a known brand at that point.

Huge risk if it doesn't sell well. But it's almost guaranteed to with the hype and not a lot of big games between now and September.

 

[jmdajr]

God damn. I don't think blockbuster movies even spend half that.

 

[djplaeskool]

This is insane.
I know this is gearing up to be one of the bigger releases this year...
but GOD DAMN.

 

[The Incredible Muffin]

This article has convinced me not to buy Destiny. Tired of marketing budgets getting out of control, time to vote with my wallet.

That is just silly,,,, not going to by a game because the publishers spend a shit load on marketing. Silly,,,silly boy

 

[PaNaMa]

It's probably been said already but, with a break even units sold range in the 15-16 million units mark, a PC release seems almost to be a requirement.

DayZ SA sold 2 million on Steam. Without a single TV commercial.

Even if combined console sales are spectacular, 15-16 million units shipped is .. I mean feel free to chime in.. but that's lofty, sir.

 

[Trickster]

Bungie probably does pay obscene amounts for their higher tier staff. I mean O'Donnell was almost certainly expensive as fuck before he left. As for the studio size stuff, a lot of this stuff does fluctuate depending on where they are in production. Not all of Rocksteady had been working on one title for the gap between GTA IV and V. I remember Ubisoft has insane amounts of staff working on their titles. Bungie has done nothing but work on Destiny since ODST. We know that the development and early marketing (which there hasn't been much) has already gone through $140 million, it's not a stretch that after the delay they've hit close to $200 million since they're in full production mode now.

500 million is way too low for 10 years. COD probably has gone through that in 5.

Why would rockstar not also pay senior staff obscene amounts of money?

Yes, staff size fluctuate, this also applies to bungie. You don't think they started out with 500 people right? They had around 150 when they made Reach. Halo Reach came out after ODST btw.

I'm not saying Destiny is a cheap game. But there is a LARGE gap between 200 (we don't really know if this is what has been spend on Destiny though) and 500 million. And no, that gap ain't gonna be filled by the PR budget.

CoD going through 500 million in 5 years ( assuming that's the number ). Also means the production and big marketing campaigns for 5 games. Bungie aren't going to make 5 games in a 10 year span.

In end both you and I are pulling numbers out our asses. Neither us know the exact budgets any of these games have. I'm simply trying to look at this logically. And I just don't see how Bungie could possible spend 2 times the amount of money making Destiny, as Rockstar did with more people working on GTA5, over roughly as long of a time period. Nor do I think that Activision would being willing to bet such a large amount of money on a single new IP game. And that won't change no matter how much we speculate on the fee's of a few voice actors, musician, senior staff wages or unknown budgets of games and marketing campaigns.

 

[The Incredible Muffin]

For a new IP and no PC version? Good luck with that.

I doubt they will breakeven. However, they dont need to. They plan to make this franchize THE new franchize. Activision can take a big hit. If the success of the first one leads to a COD/ Halo 2.0 they struck gold.

 

[BeforeU]

God damn, that's too much money and there is no way they will make any profit on the first installment and I think they already know this. Future games will be money making factories.

I think Destiny will be one time buy game and then there will be add-on for YEARS to come, new worlds to buy, new weapon packs, new game modes with improve visuals. This will all be done without buying a new 60$ game. I think this is the business model they are going for. The foundation is now there, only have to maintain the servers and don't have to worry about making a new game from scratch. That's why they are going all in.

 

[FonkyByNature]

WOW, that is a lot of money !

Do they know something i don't ? because i have a feeling Destiny will not be the success they're hoping it'll be. Looking at trailers, the game looks nice, but not AAA huge budget nice. I would be happy if it's the opposite though as i want Bungie to have success with the game.

 

[block tower]

spending that much money on a single game's marketing kinda seems to me like games publishing has finally crawled up its own ass.

basically this. why does any one game tha has zero track record of being a proven success even deserve this much special attention? Destiny at best look average, but due to Bungie developing the game it is given a pass so far. no way Destiny sells more than 10 million units, hell, Activision would be lucky for 6-8 million units.

 

[Loomba]

I'm assuming it's a calculated risk, so that they can reuse most of the resources for the second game at a much lower development cost and sell more than the first with an established fan base.

It would be hilarious if the game was shit.

 

[soldat7]

Have we seen any fruits of this yet? Seems like folks are more confused than hyped at this stage of the game.

 

[Jinko]

That has disaster written all over it.

 

[Pyronite]

This article has convinced me not to buy Destiny. Tired of marketing budgets getting out of control, time to vote with my wallet.

Or you could buy it if it's a good game and not buy it if it's a bad game. Y'know.

 

[Final Verdict]

Nice to see Activision is willing to take big risk like this. Considering that Destiny is the most preordered game in the US right now (currently beating out Watch Dogs), It looks like it just might pay off.

I doubt the first one will make a ton of profit considering the huge investment, but I would be willing to bet it will make at least 1 Billion in lifetime sales.

 

[Ol No Bones]

I love bungie but this game just doesn't look that great to me. I'm just not feeling it. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[prag16]

Probably not. I'm sure there will be a lot of dlc to help make money, and they're hoping it will be a major franchise and sequels should cost less to develop and market since it's a known brand at that point.

Huge risk if it doesn't sell well. But it's almost guaranteed to with the hype and not a lot of big games between now and September.

Yeah, no way their plan REQUIRES over 15 million sales. I think this is about right; cheaper sequels and DLC is expected to make up the difference and then some.

Still quite risky, as the game doesn't even look that compelling at this point. Less compelling than even Titanfall, and I was iffy on that one from the start (glad it turned out decent though). Though we don't have nearly the full info and I'm sure E3 will shed a lot more light on what we can expect. Still... half a billion poured into a new IP... yikes.

 

[Dyno]

Maybe 15 mil across the ten years is what they are shooting for. If two or three great Destiny games are made and brought over to other platforms then the tail will be really long and they will be selling a lot of copies to people catching up on Destiny.

 

[Portugeezer]

They will surely lose money.

 

[avaya]

Sci-Fi won't do COD or GTA numbers, this is such a bad idea.

 

[djplaeskool]

That has disaster written all over it.

By most accounts, the game is probably going to be very very good...
but how good? $500MM good? $1B good? $350MM good?
Yes, this game could have glowing reviews, make $400MM, and in the end, be a financial disaster.
That's crazy.

The only sensible thing I can think of is that they will be going whole hog on serialization of content and sequels. Acti is essentially all in on this franchise.

 

[entremet]

I have a feeling this game and series will underperform financially. Don't really see the hook.

 

[Ol No Bones]

Nice to see Activision is willing to take big risk like this. Considering that Destiny is the most preordered game in the US right now (currently beating out Watch Dogs), It looks like it just might pay off.

I doubt the first one will make a ton of profit considering the huge investment, but I would be willing to bet it will make at least 1 Billion in lifetime sales.

They are going to be working on destiny for 10 years they said. A generation long of content. I'm worried about this game though. Have the previews been positive because the content I'm seeing thus far seems like a snoozer. Maybe ita just bad footage though.

 

[Sulik2]

They are investing this much so Destiny 2 and 3 sell 15 million + with a smaller budget.

 

[Dolor]

They should have instead made 10 games for 50M each, and I am guessing they would be better off.

 

[injurai]

Um. Good luck reaching those sales.

The power of cross-gen.

 

[Computer]

They wont make their money back unless they change their advertising strategy. Most people think the game is a ps4 exclusive. Kind of dumb if you need this game to sell truck loads.

 

[Bad_Boy]

Count on microtransactions.

 

[2spooky4me]

For a new IP and no PC version? Good luck with that.

GTA5 doesn't have a PC version, and it did just fine.

 

[Jarmel]

Why would rockstar not also pay senior staff obscene amounts of money?

Yes, staff size fluctuate, this also applies to bungie. You don't think they started out with 500 people right? They had around 150 when they made Reach. Halo Reach came out after ODST btw.

I'm not saying Destiny is a cheap game. But there is a LARGE gap between 200 (we don't really know if this is what has been spend on Destiny though) and 500 million. And no, that gap ain't gonna be filled by the PR budget.

CoD going through 500 million in 5 years ( assuming that's the number ). Also means the production and big marketing campaigns for 5 games. Bungie aren't going to make 5 games in a 10 year span.

In end both you and I are pulling numbers out our asses. Neither us know the exact budgets any of these games have. I'm simply trying to look at this logically. And I just don't see how Bungie could possible spend 2 times the amount of money making Destiny, as Rockstar did with more people working on GTA5, over roughly as long of a time period. Nor do I think that Activision would being willing to bet such a large amount of money on a single new IP game. And that won't change no matter how much we speculate on the fee's of a few voice actors, musician, senior staff wages or unknown budgets of games and marketing campaigns.

So I went through the contact, what I got from it was that just the 360 version was going to cost $140 million. That doesn't include ports or the delays.

In the event that Development Advances paid to Licensor in connection with only the Xbox360 version of
Destiny Game #1 (excluding any and all Conversions thereof) exceeds $140,000,000 (inclusive of both
Development Advances paid to Licensor in connection with the Xbox 360 version of Game #1 and
marketing funds as provided in Section 13.7)

The parties shall mutually agree to a pre-beta marketing fund (not to exceed One Million Dollars
($1,000,000) or Two Hundred Fifty Thousand Dollars ($250,000) every six (6) months over a two (2)
year period) for Destiny Game #1 for Licensor-driven marketing initiatives including, without limitation,
the creation of ViDocs and marketing assets and executions consistent with its expertise and historical
practice.

This is an old contract mind you so they could just as easily bumped that number up quite a bit. So we're looking at a game coming out on 4 systems and we're now in the $200 million range. Inclusive in the $140 million number is marketing only up to the beta. Don't forget post launch support.

The game is expensive as fuck.

 

[Servbot24]

This article has convinced me not to buy Destiny. Tired of marketing budgets getting out of control, time to vote with my wallet.

What an incredibly silly post. Basically a "this band got played on the radio, they're not cool anymore" post. Marketing budget has nothing to do with game quality.

 

[Brohan]

They are going for the long run, i'm pretty sure they know they will take a hit in the beginning.

Not sure why so many seem to ignore that this is supposed to be a 10 year project...

They are creating a franchise and expect to make alot of money with it but they sure as hell aren't expecting to regain their full 500 million investment at the start with the first Destiny.

 

[Blackage]

This article has convinced me not to buy Destiny. Tired of marketing budgets getting out of control, time to vote with my wallet.

Hilarious,

"Sir why didn't this guy buy our game? Was it the subscription fee? Tacked on multilayer that diminished the single player expierence? DLC?"
"No he...didn't like that we put a lot of money into making and promoting it."
"...wat."

 

[Mass_Pincup]

With that kind of budget i don't even want to imagine the amount of microtransaction the game will have.

 

[Insane Metal]

Well don't count on me to reach those numbers. I see nothing interesting in this game.

 

[Barristan Selmy]

Was interested in this game until I saw the latest gameplay video. So maybe that much marketing isn't such a great idea. Of course it's only my opinion.

 

[Tobor]

This is the game I'm most interested in this fall, and everyone I know who plays games is hyped for it.

Sounds like the plan is working so far.

 

[johnny956]

He even says a lot of it are upfront costs and said

"Over the long term, we expect the ultimate product costs to be roughly in line with other Triple-A titles."

Yea they expect to incur a loss initially but expect it to be quite profitable over the long term

 

[Hip Hop]

He even says a lot of it are upfront costs and said

Yea they expect to incur a loss initially but expect it to be quite profitable over the long term

People are overreacting, like they have no clue what they are doing.

They precisely know what they are doing with that kind of budget. They expect to get brand awareness with this first game. I'm sure it will become very profitable after.

 

[Psychotext]

Was interested in this game until I saw the latest gameplay video. So maybe that much marketing isn't such a great idea. Of course it's only my opinion.

Pretty much my view on it too. I was really excited by what they showed at Sony's conference last year but that gameplay video looked oh so tedious.

 

[Jimmyfenix]

This game is going to be big! day 1!!!

 

[Lunar15]

Well, I'm assuming most of it is getting spent on the tail end, because I feel like everything around that game has been tight-lipped and vague.

 

[Chobel]

GTA5 doesn't have a PC version, and it did just fine.

GTA5 is not a new IP.

 

[Servbot24]

This is the game I'm most interested in this fall, and everyone I know who plays games is hyped for it.

Sounds like the plan is working so far.

I don't care about FPS or MMO yet I'm interested in this game, so they must be doing something right.

Also I'm glad Activision is doing this just because it will be a spectacle and I'm interested to see if it pays off for them.

 

[I am the Law]

That's like the entire population of the Netherlands playing Destiny..

 

[Dr. Kaos]

It's a disguised MMORPG. The expected holy grail of WoW crossed with CoD. I'm willing to bet it'll have micro-transactions that are expected to rake in billions over the lifetime of the franchise so it won't actually require the game to break even at launch.

A big portion of the budget is going to marketing to establish the new franchise and that marketing money should be amortized over a trilogy.

Obviously, there is no way they can sell 15 mil copies of the thing. There's only going to be about 20-25mil PS4-X1 sold by the end of this year. It would require an improbably 0.5+ attach ratio I imagine.

Edit: nevermind that last point. It is cross-gen. Good for sales, not so good for game quality.

 

[Hoodbury]

Well I hope they make their next trailer/gameplay video a little more exciting than the last one.

 

[Byakuya769]

Jesus. 15-16 million?

To break even....

No way. Some of these costs have to be recouped over sequels and micro transactions.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

Obviously, there is no way they can sell 15 mil copies of the thing. There's only going to be about 20-25mil PS4-X1 sold by the end of this year. It would require an improbably 0.5+ attach ratio I imagine.

Well it is cross gen. But it still won't come near 25 million anytime soon. But as you note it doesn't have to due to dlc, and hoping to make more on sequels after establishing the brand.

 

[JaseMath]

Is it even possible to make up that cost...even with the most generous (supposed) LTD sales from both the PS4 and XBone after Christmas?
Good luck with that, Activision.