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[Nerokis]

It's a massive, massive risk there's nothing certain about this game selling as much as they need it to do. It may do it, but we've seen countless studios attempt to do it and fail.

The market is so easily predictable that you can invest this kind of money and expect all to go well. And if this fails, then your company is in some serious, serious trouble.

If you're this wary, how do you think the people actually in a position to be affected feel? I think it's odd how many people in this thread have expressed such sentiments with the pretense that everyone at Activision is too stupid/oblivious/whatever to see their point.

It's indeed a big risk. But the potential reward could be much bigger, and Activision has an enormous buffer either way.

 

[Coolwhip]

LOL Activision.

Incredible.

And I thought $100m was high enough.

Seriously... $500m...

Somebody needs to stop this. This is getting out of control.

Eventually the market will stop it. One bomb and they're gone. If Destiny bombs activision will take a big blow.

 

[TheMaidenInBlack]

Setting it up to fail.

 

[NHale]

One thing people keeps forgetting is that Destiny will cater to hardcore and mainstream market because people are eager to play games on their new consoles, PS fans wanting to experience Bungie games, the Halo and Borderlands overlap market.

Borderlands was a surprise success because mainstream loved it and Halo crowd will buy it as well because there are so many evident connections to Halo if you only show a small glimpse of the game during the ad campaign. The only way I see this game not selling 8M copies is if it gets bad reviews (<80).

 

[jelly]

Unless the mystery sauce of Destiny that I've yet to experience is crack, I think Bungie are in for a rough ride.

Last gen console game sales are weaker than ever, next gen is still building up. Not sure where 10 million + is going to come from. Activision can say they'll give it a long tail but if the game isn't hot, they aren't going to stick around forever.

 

[Trickster]

Eventually the market will stop it. One bomb and they're gone. If Destiny bombs activision will take a big blow.

This is presuming of course that all of that 500 million is for destiny 1 alone. Which seems highly unlikely to me

 

[Nerokis]

Eventually the market will stop it. One bomb and they're gone. If Destiny bombs activision will take a big blow.

It's funny to see people anticipating the time when the market puts an end to big budget games, as if that actually implies a thriving industry.

 

[Coolwhip]

It's funny to see people anticipating the time when the market puts an end to big budget games, as if that actually implies a thriving industry.

This 500 million game is in development is it not?

 

[funkypie]

What a joke. Does not need that level of marketing.

 

[Vagabundo]

Seems reasonable considering Activision's history.

500 Million to start a new IP and make a big impact. Considering this deal is for ten years, that's at least five games. They are looking to get the Halo crowd and the COD jaded and become the next new thang. That's worth a lot.

It's hardly even a risk, at the very least they will get most of the money back even if it, technically, flops.

 

[Ray Wonder]

I think it's feasible to sell 10+ million, I haven't been so sure I was buying a game ever in my life. This one is just too amazing looking to pass up.

 

[JawzPause]

If this game looked interesting then I wouldn't think that 500M was completely wasted, but the game looks so generic and boring.
The game has close to zero hype around it too, I've seen people more hyped about watchdogs than Destiny. Some of my friends who are casual gamers have heard of watchdogs, but none of them know Destiny exists.
I really hope this isn't as bad as it looks and Bungie prove me wrong, but there really doesn't appear to be anything special about Destiny.

 

[Trickster]

This 500 million game is in development is it not?

Doubtful. Most likely the 500 million is the amount that will be budgettet during the 10 year plan that bungie and activision have signed with each other. Which isn't just 1 game.

If this game looked interesting then I wouldn't think that 500M was completely wasted, but the game looks so generic and boring.
The game has close to zero hype around it too, I've seen people more hyped about watchdogs than Destiny. Some of my friends who are casual gamers have heard of watchdogs, but none of them know Destiny exists.
I really hope this isn't as bad as it looks and Bungie prove me wrong, but there really doesn't appear to be anything special about Destiny.

Bungie and Activision have done too little to promote the game so far I think. But from the sound of things, E3 will be when the Destiny PR train will start rolling.

As for the game not looking interesting, I agree with you that what the footage they've shown so far has not done a proper job of showcasing what will make Destiny the next big thing. However, the things they've talked about, make the game sound very exciting imo.

 

[Authority]

Did they confirm for which platforms they will release Destiny?

From the other thread regarding the most expensive video games, I assume the marketing cost will be 3 times, or on this occasion 4 times more than the development cost.

 

[Zoned]

I think it's feasible to sell 10+ million, I haven't been so sure I was buying a game ever in my life. This one is just too amazing looking to pass up.

Hmm respect your opinion, but still not sure what amazing you have seen in that game that I haven't seen till now.

 

[blackdevil]

and dont forget, Sony has a deal with Activision/ Destiny! So that`s alot of " now on Playstation 4" Commercials

good job Sony

 

[noise36]

Isn't this just Hollywood accounting?

i.e. They will use the loss to offset the gains from the next COD? The marketing dollars are probably filling the coffers of related companies who pay lower tax rates?

I dunno...

 

[DryvBy]

My goodness, and when this game now sells 20 million, they won't recover. Another Tomb Raider incident inbound.

 

[Hydrargyrus]

My god... better be good

 

[R3TRO]

Activision dun goofed, game looks mediocre as hell.

 

[Trickster]

Did they confirm for which platforms they will release Destiny?

From the other thread regarding the most expensive video games, I assume the marketing cost will be 3 times, or on this occasion 4 times more than the development cost.

X1, PS4, 360, PS3

 

[noobasuar]

Halo was a behemoth due to its tightly crafted and balanced multiplayer.

Destiny doesn't seem to have any of that going on. Good luck selling to Cod, Battlefield, and Halo crowd.

 

[Trickster]

Halo was a behemoth due to its tightly crafted and balanced multiplayer.

Destiny doesn't seem to have any of that going on. Good luck selling to Cod, Battlefield, and Halo crowd.

They litterally haven't shown multiplayer to the public once, so how on earth can you possibly come to a conclusion like that?

 

[Ray Wonder]

Hmm respect your opinion, but still not sure what amazing you have seen in that game that I haven't seen till now.

I should say *sounds amazing, I guess. From the info that I've heard about it, especially from that video yesterday..

 

[Authority]

X1, PS4, 360, PS3

Thanks Trick.

Have they got plans for PC?

 

[U-R]

I don't know why so many people reflexively go with this option.

Because most game companies have a very poor track record in setting reasonable expectations for new IPs, Activision having murdered a fair share of franchises in the 360 era.

Gamers seems to not understand what games-as-services mentality means: it means that once a top dog is set, a PS4's League of Legend, the gaming business fight is over. The more gamers are invested in a service, the more money and time they are pouring in it, the less they are willing to switch to another. All the other games will be week-long diversion from 6 years of playing that top dog: it makes barely any sense to even try being one of those week-long strolls unless we're talking indie budgets.

We'll see many more "titanflops" that try with massive brand/marketing push to reach that magical LoL spot in the upcoming years, until one unarguably sticks or until repeated failures and some publisher ending belly-up proves that no such thing is viable in the console space.

 

[KORNdoggy]

with previous gen sales falling off as much as it has, and with current gen user base being as low as it is. i don't see how they're going to get 16 million first month sales (full retail costs usually drop within a month) but then maybe they know that? maybe they're taking the approach of "lets market this as a massive franchise and then reap the rewards with destiny 2/3"

 

[Omni]

This seems beyond crazy. Expecting a new IP to sell that much? Eeep.

I've been a Bungie fan from Halo CE and even I'm not convinced that Destiny is worth picking up as of yet. Hope they can pull something out of their bag before release. At the moment it all seems pretty "meh"

 

[Trickster]

Thanks Trick.

Have they got plans for PC?

Not currently from what they've said. There was some thread about it recently I think, pretty much some BS reason about pc being hard to integrate or something along those lines. Damn shame.

with previous gen sales falling off as much as it has, and with current gen user base being as low as it is. i don't see how they're going to get 16 million first month sales (full retail costs usually drop within a month) but then maybe they know that? maybe they're taking the approach of "lets market this as a massive franchise and then reap the rewards with destiny 2/3"

Like I've said multiple times in this thread now. Most likely this 500 mill figure isn't the budget for Destiny 1. But the sum of money being allocated towards the Destiny franchise as a whole for the 10 years that activision signed a contract with bungie for

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

For a game with that big of a marketing budget I'm kind of shocked I don't know much about the campaign or multiplayer details. They did start with the teaser commercial sometime early last year (when it was still a tentative spring release), but I haven't heard a peep since. Red Dead Redemption fell slightly below the range they are seeking and it was at least playable at PAX East.

 

[noobasuar]

They litterally haven't shown multiplayer to the public once, so how on earth can you possibly come to a conclusion like that?

Well the single player looks like shit already. Couple that with the fact that you can use your loot in multiplayer which is the opposite of having a set of tightly balanced weapons and you have a recipe for disaster.

This is coming from a fairly big Halo fan. I want tightly crafted multiplayer. This game does not seem like it would be for me or for anyone looking for that.

 

[broony]

Judging by the responses in this thread, the beta is so important for them. I think that is going to more likely to get people on board than the marketing campaign.

It's also important to comprehend that the $500 million is to get the infrastructure in place for the next ten years, not just for the first game.

It's going to be interesting.

 

[broony]

Well the single player looks like shit already. Couple that with the fact that you can use your loot in multiplayer which is the opposite of having a set of tightly balanced weapons and you have a recipe for disaster.

This is coming from a fairly big Halo fan. I want tightly crafted multiplayer. This game does not seem like it would be for me or for anyone looking for that.

The single player from e3 last year?

 

[perryfarrell]

Trying to create a blockbuster from scratch seems a bad idea nowadays. Ahead of time, it's hard to tell whether a game will go viral.

Why not have several studios create different, smaller IPs that function as 'feelers' to see what people want. And then spend the big bucks on the sequels of the most successful ones? Seems, economically, the smarter approach.

 

[KORNdoggy]

Not currently from what they've said. There was some thread about it recently I think, pretty much some BS reason about pc being hard to integrate or something along those lines. Damn shame.



Like I've said multiple times in this thread now. Most likely this 500 mill figure isn't the budget for Destiny 1. But the sum of money being allocated towards the Destiny franchise as a whole for the 10 years that activision signed a contract with bungie for

so do you think the 16 million required sales is lifetime across all destiny titles? that seems an awfully small number for what? potentially 3 or 4 titles.

 

[Uno Venova]

New Gen. Same harmful, ridiculous publisher expectations.

 

[Rebel Leader]

What the hell

 

[sflufan]

Is this $500 million over the 10 year life of the contract? Because if so, that's far more reasonable.

 

[oneils]

They better get microtransactions right. Console devs still haven't really figured this out. Was especially surprised by gta online - what a missed opportunity.

 

[Trickster]

Well the single player looks like shit already. Couple that with the fact that you can use your loot in multiplayer which is the opposite of having a set of tightly balanced weapons and you have a recipe for disaster.

This is coming from a fairly big Halo fan. I want tightly crafted multiplayer. This game does not seem like it would be for me or for anyone looking for that.

They've litterally not shown a single second of campaign gameplay footage. There's are two 5 second clips in one of the trailers of a PC talking to an NPC in a cutscene. That's what they've shown of the campaign so far.

What they have shown are strike missions. Which are supposed to be short 20-30 minute side missions where you blast aliens with friends.

so do you think the 16 million required sales is lifetime across all destiny titles? that seems an awfully small number for what? potentially 3 or 4 titles.

I think so far we only know for certain that there are plans for a Destiny 2. But honestly I don't know how they will do it. But I absolutely do think that the 500 million figure is for the 10 year period that Activision signed a contract with Bungie for, and not just for the development and PR campaign of Destiny 1. It just doesn't make sense to me. I mean look at GTA5. That game's budget was half of that ( pr campaign included iirc ), and their peak amount of developers on that game was twice that of what is working on Destiny. And GTA5 was in development for around as long, if not longer than Destiny I believe.

 

[blame space]

a reasonable goal

 

[Omni]

They've litterally not shown a single second of campaign gameplay footage.

What about that gameplay a while back? That was from campaign, no?

 

[demosthenes]

Betting that much on a single game seems like such a bad idea, regardless of how good the game is.

Yea, this is insane.

 

[IdreamofHIME]

Bungie, selling new clothes to Emperors since 1991

 

[Calm Killer]

it's a 10 year plan....so it better not be a trilogy

It is a trilogy. With 1 planed xpac for each game. Or so the court document said a few years ago.



Also Bomba incoming?

 

[Raist]

The fuck? How? Half of that would have been ridiculously high already and that's GTAV territory IIRC.
How big is Bungie now?

 

[ProfessorX]

$500m is just Wow. So I guess 13m sales might be considered a flop? Wow.
I loved Halo,
but I am thinking that at some point the extra additional development money spent over a certain amount is just mostly wasted. That amount has to be much lower than what they are spending.

 

[Trickster]

What about that gameplay a while back? That was from campaign, no? And those

No it wasn't. E3 reveal was a strike mission than transitioned into a public event.

The moon trailer was footage from a strike mission as far as I know. At least I've not seen that mentioned to be campaign footage anywhere.

The Devil's Lair trailer was also a strike mission

The fuck? How? Half of that would have been ridiculously high already and that's GTAV territory IIRC.
How big is Bungie now?

Around 500 people I think. So roughly half of how many worked on GTA5 during it's peak. So ask yourself if Destiny 1 costing twice as much makes any sense.

 

[Banjo-Kazooie]

No PC version, new IP, ya good luck with that Acti. I have a feeling this game might be their THQ moment where THQ went in big on uDraw and it ended up folding them.

 

[Majukun]

so..they are spending so much to go agianst themselves?
isn't destiny an FPS?
if it's successfull,doesn't that mean that would take users from the annual COD?