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[Canis lupus]

Just 1 game or the entire franchise? Either way, this game isn't gonna sell 15m combined and I doubt it needs that much to break even. PS4/Bone userbase will be ~20-25m by year's end. At best I see 3-4m sold on PS4, 2m on the Bone, and 2m combined on last gen.

 

[SMOK3Y]

why is no one listening to me

cause you're a Swans supporter....

 

[Nebula]

Setting it up to fail. Activision are truly idiotic.

 

[Daemul]

Halo 3 was sold in 11.5m copies on X360.

I presume that Activision is targeting 8-10m for x360+Xbone and similar amount for PS3+PS4...

If that's what they're expecting, and I sure hope it's not, then this game is doomed to failure. Last gen game sales have fallen off a cliff since the Xbox One and PS4 were released, nearly every new game release sells better on next gen consoles now, which is very unusual, since something like that wasn't expected to begin happening for a couple more years.

This game would need a record breaking attach rate among next gen consoles to even sell 10 million copies, nevermind 20 million.

 

[failgubbe]

That is pretty insane

 

[Man]

Destiny will be selling well for the next couple of years I'm expecting.
It will both have a huge debut and long legs.

 

[Saiyu]

The game looked hella boring from that last video.

 

[TsuWave]

this is lunacy

 

[NHale]

It's smart that they partnered with Sony for marketing. They're going to need a lot of Playstation players to jump on board.

I don't see a lot of the casual gamers jumping into this game. I really do think it has a marketing problem, bc Bungie doesn't seem to know how to market it. The hardcore gamers who would be into this type of game really have no idea what its about.

That's where Activision enter. Nobody is better at marketing games than Activision and that alone will sell the game to the mainstream. "From the Halo and Call of Duty creators".

 

[Miles Quaritch]

Yeah, Acti are crazy good at manufacturing hype when they want to be. Shame they didn't do it for Blur or Singularity.

 

[Oni Link 666]

It doesn't sound that crazy to me. They have to make this MMO Halo, with a campaign, and multiplayer PVP, and they have to support the game with content and customer service until the expansion or sequel. Also, Destiny is a 10 year project, this could just be Activision making a big investment to help Bungie make this game awesome, that will pay of over those 10 years.

 

[Bgamer90]

Absolutely insane.

 

[The Cartographer]

See you in New Mexico, Destiny.

 

[thekiddfran]

That's where Activision enter. Nobody is better at marketing games than Activision and that alone will sell the game to the mainstream. "From the Halo and Call of Duty creators".

They also own Skylanders franchise right? Everything they touch goes MEGA.

 

[Kuldar]

Wow... 500 millions... at least we know that they believe in their product.

 

[SenatorBot]

They also own Skylanders franchise right? Everything they touch goes MEGA.

They also had tony hawk and guitar hero. I really wouldn't be surprised if Destiny hits it and becomes big. The only thing you have to worry about activision is franchise fatigue and them rehashing too much iterations.

 

[Blearth]

So many doomsayers up in here.

Games gonna sell a bajillion copies. Stop worrying,

 

[blackdevil]

wont that game have a subscription fee?

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Activision Blizzard has all that Call of Duty and WoW money to swim around in. They probably figure the $500 million is an investment in what could one day be a CoD-sized franchise, even if Destiny 1 doesn't come close to recouping that investment, Destiny 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11 will easily make it back and then some.

 

[.la1n]

Somebody is laughing all the way to the bank, it isn't Activision.

 

[NotUS]

Well it is essentially Halo across 4 platforms, and that's always been a big seller.

I will buy a copy, got to support them for their ambition.

Now only if they can take some risks with COD and I might start buying that franchise.

 

[U-R]

I guess there are many possible ways to look at this:

1- Activision is just managed by monkeys.
2- Bungie really wants to become a indie developer.
3- A plan of heavy microtransaction-based economy is being developed in the background.
4- Destiny 2 and 3 in concurrent development.

I vote 3 and 4.

 

[Joe T.]

wont that game have a subscription fee?

Nope.

 

[qa_engineer]

This won't end well. Ever one here can see it.

 

[Renekton]

I think it is a worthwhile comparison because the standard method of distribution for PC is digital, and the standard method of distribution on console is still physical. It is just the reality of the situation.

I wonder if we have numbers for that.

Even Gamestop recently closed 120 stores to move away from boxed game sales.

 

[Skeletron]

As far as I can tell from the article, this money is going toward infrastructure, hardware, marketing, and things that are necessary for the future development the franchise, not just the first game.

"Over the long term, we expect the ultimate product costs to be roughly in line with other Triple-A titles."

Anyway...still an impressive number. They've come a long way since Gnop.

 

[K-putt]

So many doomsayers up in here.

Games gonna sell a bajillion copies. Stop worrying,

Exactly. People gonna buy it like crazy.
You could sell everything like crazy with enough marketing. Doesn't matter how good/bad the game is.

 

[FullMetalx117]

I really like Bungie and absolutely love Halo, but Destiny looks boring as hell. I can't see it selling more than 5 million on PS4/XB1.

 

[Fattony12000]

They're getting pretty close now...

 

[Longsword]

By the way, I wonder if Ubisoft will do the same thing and launch its own mega-franchise. They seem to have the workforce and the finances to out-Activision Activision...

Ubisoft is far, far smaller company than Activison, with less than 2 billion revenues per year vs. Activision around 5 billion. They also have razor-thin margins (and expected to post a loss of 90M this financial year), while Activision makes mountains of profit.

It would be very, very dangerous for Ubi to try and outspend Activision. One miss and you are in a world of hurt, even with the generosity of Canadian tax credits that offset their costs.

 

[jacobeid]

So when do they start putting that money toward making the game look like fun to play?

 

[Trickster]

No way it's 500 millions for just the first destiny. More likely they're planning to "bet" 500 millions on bungie and destiny over that decade we've heard mentioned so often.

 

[kyser73]

I assume from the first line of the OP quote that this is $500mn invested across the whole franchise, not just the first game?

If this is the case that equates to $50mn per year initial investment in a 10 year project - which inflation adjusted is probably on a par with the LotR trilogy budget, less than the reported $561mn spent on The Hobbit and about half of Marvel's spend to date on its current run of superhero movies.

 

[ComputerMKII]

Ubisoft is far, far smaller company than Activison, with less than 2 billion revenues per year vs. Activision around 5 billion. They also have razor-thin margins (and expected to post a loss of 90M this financial year), while Activision makes mountains of profit.

It would be very, very dangerous for Ubi to try and outspend Activision. One miss and you are in a world of hurt, even with the generosity of Canadian tax credits that offset their costs.

Interesting, I didn't know.

 

[velociraptor]

LOL Activision.

Incredible.

And I thought $100m was high enough.

Seriously... $500m...

Somebody needs to stop this. This is getting out of control.

 

[kyser73]

LOL Activision.

Incredible.

And I thought $100m was high enough.

Seriously... $500m...

Somebody needs to stop this. This is getting out of control.

If this represents one game yes, if it's forward budget for 10 years no.

 

[TheSpaceBetween]

Sounds like something Activision would do. In some ways it would make me happy to see the game fail to meet expectations sales wise, just as I was happy that Bioshock Infinite did. It fucking blows that Irrational is basically no more and some of the consequences will suck if Destiny births similar consequences. But this industry really needs to learn that this type of development model is unhealthy and unsustainable.

 

[lifeexpectancy]

Betting that much on a single game seems like such a bad idea, regardless of how good the game is.

The bet isn't on a single game. If you understand the point of the 'back end infrastructure' and the other stuff they're referring to, they are banking on the fact that as the series progresses, they will be able to use the front-loaded expenditures that they have made in order to facilitate easier production and delivery of DLC for the first title, as well as an easier development and release of Destiny 2, 3, etc, without nearly as much in the way of expense for those.

It's a 10-year bet, not a 1- or 2- year bet.

I'm not saying it's necessarily a smart move considering the attention span of the average person these days and the uncertainty with launching a new franchise, but at the same time the only way to make something like this a runaway success IS to front-load the expenses for marketing and support/infrastructure to make sure that it launches flawlessly and isn't ripped apart in online reviews/blogs/boards/etc. If they can do that, and if Bungie can create a world that is rich enough for people to delve into the universe and story beyond just the enemies in front of their gun, then it MIGHT be a successful bet.

 

[Ubiquitar]

I'll buy this game used when it's around the $20 mark.

 

[Mibuokami]

You couldn't spare a few million in that budget to get a PC version at launch? Really?

 

[Abounder]

I've been more impressed with the game No Man's Sky which just has 6 people compared to the behemoth that is Destiny. It really sounds like Destiny is the next BioShock or SWTOR in the sense that even if it's a good and well-received game it still won't be enough.

The marketing is going to be something else though. I'd imagine they'll copy the HALO style and their promotions will be littered with "From the makers of HALO and Call of Duty" "And music from the Beatle Paul McCartney!" "Also Tyrion Lannister as a robot!" Etc. The name drops will be a sight to see

 

[DarkFlow]

And a PC version in the future isn't out of the question. A game like Destiny (and like GTA) can easily survive not launching on PC, but it still makes sense to be on as many platforms as possible.

You think the PC SKU is going to make the difference between cataclysmic failure and unparalleled success? Of the 5 platforms, it would have probably moved the least amount of units on PC. We don't know their approach to monetization either. So I guess the PC could actually make more money in the long run if it takes off, but it's not a MOBA so who knows.

The thing with PC games is, yeah you most likely won't sell a shit ton out of the gate, but you'll sell for a while lot longer. People buy PC games long after they come out with Steam sales, humble bundles, and just people just randomly buying it. Plus every sale is a new copy, so you're always making money off it.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Eh, they'll make a lot of it back on 1) DLC packs, 2) digital copies, and 3) merchandising. I think $500 million is outrageous, but I don't think "needs to sell 16 million copies" is accurate (that is, I don't think it takes into account the three points above). More importantly, the $500 million will be used to make (or attempt to make) Destiny a household name. Once Destiny becomes the next Call of Duty (if it's meant to be), each year's budget will be massively less.

 

[Nerokis]

I guess there are many possible ways to look at this:

1- Activision is just managed by monkeys.
2- Bungie really wants to become a indie developer.
3- A plan of heavy microtransaction-based economy is being developed in the background.
4- Destiny 2 and 3 in concurrent development.

I vote 3 and 4.

I don't know why so many people reflexively go with this option. Activision is a ridiculously successful company, and I have a very difficult time imagining their management is made out of morons with an eagerness to lose money. $500 million is a fairly manageable sum for Activision, and that investment is going toward building a franchise that most definitely has the potential to generate billions of dollars over time. I'm pretty sure a robust monetization scheme was conceived long ago, with a variety of revenue projections for the next decade nice and calculated. It's certainly a big gamble, but I'd say the risk:reward ratio in this case probably makes it a sensible one.

I also don't really understand all the "this is what's wrong with the industry" doomsaying. Is GTA V also an example of what's wrong with the industry? I mean, yeah, the AAA business model generally has issues, no doubt. The market has changed, technology has changed, developers have a challenging environment to navigate. A blockbuster budget isn't inherently a bad thing in and of itself, though. In this case, Activision is competing with the rest of the industry by doing something it's uniquely capable of: taking in a lot of risk, and creating something of a massive scale. It wouldn't be the first such project to fail dramatically, but it also wouldn't be the first to succeed.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Wow...that's a a lot of money to ride on one franchise ahead of even knowing whether the first one is even going to sell well.

 

[Principate]

I don't know why so many people reflexively go with this option. Activision is a ridiculously successful company, and I have a very difficult time imagining their management is made out of morons with an eagerness to lose money. $500 million is a fairly manageable sum for Activision, and that investment is going toward building a franchise that most definitely has the potential to generate billions of dollars over time. I'm pretty sure a robust monetization scheme was conceived long ago, with a variety of revenue projections for the next decade nice and calculated. It's certainly a big gamble, but I'd say the risk:reward ratio in this case probably makes it a sensible one.

I also don't really understand all the "this is what's wrong with the industry" doomsaying. Is GTA V also an example of what's wrong with the industry? I mean, yeah, the AAA business model generally has issues, no doubt. The market has changed, technology has changed, developers have a challenging environment to navigate. A blockbuster budget isn't inherently a bad thing in and of itself, though. In this case, Activision is competing with the rest of the industry by doing something it's uniquely capable of: taking in a lot of risk, and creating something of a massive scale. It wouldn't be the first such project to fail dramatically, but it also wouldn't be the first to succeed.

It's a massive, massive risk there's nothing certain about this game selling as much as they need it to do. It may do it, but we've seen countless studios attempt to do it and fail.

The market is so easily predictable that you can invest this kind of money and expect all to go well. And if this fails, then your company is in some serious, serious trouble.

 

[Liha]

$500 million and no PC version? I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

 

[Q8D3vil]

wasnt the rumor saying it need to sell 10 millions to break even, this is even more fucked up.

 

[blackdevil]

I'll buy this game used when it's around the $20 mark.

good. That`s the way to support a new IP

 

[Trickster]

I'll buy this game used when it's around the $20 mark.

Such a weird reaction if it's in response to this news.

random guy - "hey guys, this game has a big budget"

you - "thanks for the heads up, guess I know what not to buy at full price!"