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Activision spending $500 million on developing and marketing Destiny

Has a new IP ever achieved 15 million copies sold in its first entry?

The most successful entry title I know of is Gran Turismo - it sold 11million.

What the so-called analysts don't seem to be considering is that Activision is almost certainly going to microtransaction/DLC this game into next gen. In any case I really hope this game flops for the simple reason that I don't think publishers trying (and possibly managing) to buy their way to success is going to lead to console games going forward in the least. Gamers will end up treading water and seeing even more rehashed formulaic titles.

If this delivers underwhelming numbers after Titanfall did as well then I think it could be an eye opener for publishers. If it does well then we're back on track for a system where Activision may decide to go ahead and start development of Destiny 2,3,4,5,6 and 7 all at the same time - bring that CoD formula into the modern era.
 
Um. Good luck reaching those sales.

I am sure the estimated sales needed to break even don't take into account any dlc, which I expect there will be plenty.

I'll wait for reviews and my own experience before I pass judgement.
 
Sure, but with say 8 new AAA IPs, they could see what the market wants right now. They could just chose the next big thing like they did with Tony Hawk, Guitar Hero, CoD and Skylanders.. Have one game with good word of mouth and a solid campaign and then make it happen if it is reasonably successful.

I understand that, but i'm just pointing out that it doesn't seem to be how Activision likes to work. They don't like to throw a net out to see what they catch with it. They like to bet big on one game and go from there. Destiny is that game this time around. In their last conference call they said that it was tracking to be the most pre-ordered new IP ever. So, it's at least on the track that they'd want it to be on at this point.
 
Doesn't every cod make like a billion dollars within the first week it comes out? So 500 mill is nothing to them

Yes, at retail. Activision probably directly earns around 2/5 - 1/2 of that after everyone has their cut of the $60 retail price.

Could this sink Bungie?

Unlikely. Even if it's a massive flop and they part ways with Activision, Bungie could probably find another contract with a different publisher either way, but they'd have to massively contract from their current 500 employees.

They aren't budgeting half a million for the Destiny the game, they're marketing for Destiny the franchise. I doubt they expect to make that money back just from initial sales but the awareness raised will reach throughout the entire length of the franchise.

That was my initial thought too. Do we have clarity on this; i.e. more context from Kotick's announcements?

Has a new IP ever achieved 15 million copies sold in its first entry?

Very very few. We're probably talking single digit numbers. Off the top of my head I can think of Minecraft and Wii Sports.
 
When you spends hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising, as any ad exec that works for Coke, Warner Brothers, or Unilever will tell you, you shift the market yourself.

Sure, but it's also risky if the market doesn't adapt in the same way they expect. This is just a feeling, but I think a lot depends on word of mouth if you want to get out of the 3-5m area without a household name in this business.

As other people have pointed out, the article is written kind of vaguely, so the $500 million is likely for the life of the franchise or something along those lines, but certainly isn't for just ads before the game launches.

OK, 500m for 10 years makes a lot more sense and may be even a bit on the conservative side of things.
 
Lol And here I thought EA was the poster child for what's wrong with over-bloated AAA game development. Congrats Activision, you win.

Edit: and I hate to be that anti-hype guy...but the latest Destiny vids I've seen make the game look very "meh". Perhaps when I get my hands on the game and give it a whirl myself it will change my mind...but from the looks of it they have their work cut out for 'em making this thing half as successful as Halo IMHO, let alone COD...
 
They aren't budgeting half a million for the Destiny the game, they're marketing for Destiny the franchise. I doubt they expect to make that money back just from initial sales but the awareness raised will reach throughout the entire length of the franchise.

I wonder how much Sony ponied up to get in on this.

This.

They're trying to establish a franchise , they'll not be looking to recoup this money with first week sales.

People will intentionally ignore the obvious and just go with lolAAA instead.
 
This.

They're trying to establish a franchise , they'll not be looking to recoup this money with first week sales.

People will intentionally ignore the obvious and just go with lolAAA instead.

Just because we are LOLing at the ridiculous expense doesnt mean we fail to grasp it is supposedly for developing the "franchise". Its still a ridiculous number and incredibly risky. Major blockbuster films dont usually spend half this much including the entire production and marketing budgets...and many more of them fail than succeed. What exactly does $500 million get you? Destiny happy meal tie-ins, super bowl commercials, and seed money for an action figure line? Will that guarantee the game sells well enough to make a profit?
 
I'd love to know how Dev's feel about this type of marketing. I've always wondered if they're really happy to have that level of support prior to release or do they feel the pressure that amount money on top of dev costs brings to make the game a financial success?
 
such a marketing budget is just demented...
the little asshole in me wants to see this game fail, this is getting out of hand. :/

i never wanna see a publisher cry again... herpa derpa games get more and more expensive to make... herpa derpa you have to invest this much money...

and here i am sitting on my pc, playing a game for over a 100 hours, that 1 single man created in 3 years...

seems like all they think is
1. create a generic game (i know should say that so early...)
2. throw money on it
3. throw more money at it
3. ????
4. profit!...
the underpantsgnomes would be proud of them...

this is why we can't have nice thinks :/
 
The game seems solid and it could be fun, but i dont see a real big hype around destiny - so i really really doubt that sales will come close to 15 million copies. If it were some kind of innovative MMO-FPS i could image Bungie coming close to the sales, but the last video was really disillusioning. A Sci-Fi Borderlands with Random Matchmaking in the Areas doesnt seem so attractive to a big amount of players.

Also: where did the marketing budget go? we barely know anything in detail about the game, just got a live action trailer and a few videos showing some coop footage which could be from any linear fps with coop mode
 
I understand that, but i'm just pointing out that it doesn't seem to be how Activision likes to work. They don't like to throw a net out to see what they catch with it. They like to bet big on one game and go from there. Destiny is that game this time around. In their last conference call they said that it was tracking to be the most pre-ordered new IP ever. So, it's at least on the track that they'd want it to be on at this point.

But they haven't done this with the examples I pointed out. Their previous success stories all developed through demand and selection and weren't shoved down the consumers throat day one - that step happened when they realized the game could sell and there was demand.

They are always very picky with the games they publish, but they also don't bet everything on them with the first iteration.
 
Halo 3 was sold in 11.5m copies on X360.

I presume that Activision is targeting 8-10m for x360+Xbone and similar amount for PS3+PS4...
 
I think it will be the new CoD in terms of sales.

Nah, it doesn't have a chance to become as popular as CoD.
These guys seem to think they can make anything a blockbuster by throwing money at it.
They seem to think sales are directly proportional to the money they spend in marketing and nothing else.

The industry is run by people in a suit who have no idea, no interest in videogames, know and care very little about them and only understand a very basic business language.

I can't wait to see kotick fail miserably; the problem is, again he won't be the one suffering the consequences of his idiocy; Bungie will, as did Bizarre before it

(or maybe it's a different case here, because Bungie is not owned by activision like bizarre was ? need to check my facts here :P)
 
Didnt kniw it was a two year release cycle with expansions in between? Hope they use the 500mil to buy a second team instead of marketing. Doesn't matter how awesome they are, they'll burn out trying to keep shipping.
 
Didnt kniw it was a two year release cycle with expansions in between? Hope they use the 500mil to buy a second team instead of marketing. Doesn't matter how awesome they are, they'll burn out trying to keep shipping.

I guess we know what beenox will be doing for the next 10 years.
 
The more you put this in perspective, the more ludicrous it becomes. Is he saying this with some pride?

Edit:

..and to think, all it will take is a few review scores of 7 or 8 to mean that money will all be wasted.

After spending that much money, I think they'll allocate some of it to "secure" some good review scores.
 
But they haven't done this with the examples I pointed out. Their previous success stories all developed through demand and selection and weren't shoved down the consumers throat day one - that step happened when they realized the game could sell and there was demand.

They are always very picky with the games they publish, but they also don't bet everything on them with the first iteration.

They bet big on Skylanders right out the gate. Producing those toys wouldn't be cheap, especially if the game ended up flopping (just look at THQ and their uDraw tablets). And it wasn't too long before Skylanders when stores had a bunch of plastic instruments from Activision collecting dust on their shelves. They also hired major talent for the game. Hans Zimmer composed the soundtrack and Alec Sokolow and Joel Cohen wrote the story, they both worked on the original Toy Story. None of that talent was really needed for a game like Skylanders, but it's Activision and they're a go big or go home type of company.
 
Wel, I definitely won't be one of the purchasers of this game. I'll be the one waiting for the sequel to come to PC... If it makes it that far.
 
Instead of spending this kind of money for marketing, they could have done a Twitter/Facebook campaign saying they´re going to sell the game for 20$, basically making at in impulse buy for everyone under the sun.
That way they´d not only promote the new IP as best as they could, but also get a great bottom line. *shakes-head*
 
Why would you do a marketing deal with Sony when you're trying to sell that many copies? COD is an established franchise and everyone knows its on every platform. With a new IP like this its guaranteed that some people will think this is PS exclusive.
 
An incredible number. I suppose that's a $500 million investment into the franchise as a whole, as one could expect future titles to be much less costly (some significant upfront costs were listed in the article). Destiny could become a multi-billion-dollar franchise over time, but even then, it's difficult to imagine what exactly called for a $500 million investment. I'm definitely that much more interested in seeing more of the game and getting a better sense of their plans for it.
 
Why would you do a marketing deal with Sony when you're trying to sell that many copies? COD is an established franchise and everyone knows its on every platform. With a new IP like this its guaranteed that some people will think this is PS exclusive.

Just like they thought COD was Xbox exclusive?
 
They bet big on Skylanders right out the gate. Producing those toys wouldn't be cheap, especially if the game ended up flopping (just look at THQ and their uDraw tablets). And it wasn't too long before Skylanders when stores had a bunch of plastic instruments from Activision collecting dust on their shelves. They also hired major talent for the game. Hans Zimmer composed the soundtrack and Alec Sokolow and Joel Cohen wrote the story, they both worked on the original Toy Story. None of that talent was really needed for a game like Skylanders, but it's Activision and they're a go big or go home type of company.

You're right, sounds like that would have been pretty expensive too. Didn't know they were so involved right from the start.
 
500 Million? You could've greenlit lots of games with this money, Activision.
Good luck - the last gameplay trailer looked good, but not 500 Million good imho. I need to know what is happening between those coop mission. Is there an open world to explore?
 
or maybe it's a different case here, because Bungie is not owned by activision like bizarre was ? need to check my facts here :P

Oh, if Bungie flunks this, they will definitely be affected. Even if Destiny doesn't sink them, it will leave a giant $500 million stain on their track record. But hopefully it won't come to that.
 
PS4/X1 userbase isn't big enough for them to sell 16 mil copies. So yea good luck activision. I won't be surprised if they delay until 2015 for release.

I think it's stupid spending that much money and not using a few millions to make a PC version.

They run out of millions. Couldn't spend anymore ;)
 
What a ridiculous some of money to spend on developing a game. How much did it cost to create the iPhone?

sum.

Also I think this is a bit insane as well. It's funny I'm both hyped and bored as fuck by the look of destiny. I hope its good. It could go either way from what I can see.
 
This symbolizes what is wrong with this industry. Budget through the roof and hilarious sales expectations.

No, this symbolizes what is wrong with Activision. They don't want smaller games. They have COD, Skylanders and Blizzard. Now they want another uber seller.
 
PS4/X1 userbase isn't big enough for them to sell 16 mil copies. So yea good luck activision. I won't be surprised if they delay until 2015 for release.

It's on PS360 as well. If this game gets delayed again it's dead in the water.

Isn't Destiny like a 10 year project with 3 games coming out at least?

iirc that's right which makes me wonder what Bungie was thinking. I do hope this is not the only game they'll be working on for the next few years
 
Man, GAF is full of Pessimists.

The $500mil is for the franchise, not the first game alone. I have no doubt that it'll make bucketloads of cash for Activision, considering the DLC Bungie will undoubtedly be working on.
 
This symbolizes what is wrong with this industry. Budget through the roof and hilarious sales expectations.

A few eggs will have to be cracked before the industry starts to find a better balance.

Yes, AAA games are big and filled with many things but they can be beaten in terms of fun by smaller, more targeted games. Cheaper games. Games that don't take a small army to make. There's really no creative advantage to having such a massive team when it comes to core gameplay.

Putting $500 million in one basket is not sustainable. Zero sympathy when these sorts of games bomb, and zero ground given when companies use these missteps to try and grab higher prices or consumer rights.
 
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