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Activision spending $500 million on developing and marketing Destiny

These mid-tier games would never exist regardless. Bungie doesn't make them.

Concern trolling?

Haha. Come on man. I'm not concern trolling. I will likely buy Destiny myself. I'm just stating my sadness for fleeting times past when lots of good mid tier games were a thing.

I'm not really criticizing Bungie or Activision in particular, but rather the whole industry at large.
 
Fine then; I'm willing to bet the game won't meet their expectations. They won't recoup the marketing costs by the end of the holidays. They think the game will have GTA5 selling power but it won't. Neither did TitanFall.

If I'm wrong I'll happily change my avatar to whatever you want.

I'll take the bet on the bold part. People are saying $500 mil for marketing is outrageous (which even I think it is), but I still think the game will break even. What's the official end for the holiday season? For those who might be on the fence if this is serious avatar bet or not, it is. I like my chances.
 
Well, if they intend on making a few games out of Destiny and if it is really going to change the the future of FPS, this would make sense, no?
 
These mid-tier games would never exist regardless. Bungie doesn't make them.

Concern trolling?

Would never exist regardless?

I think there is a very good argument to be had that Activision might be better served funding 100 smaller projects, and maybe you get a couple Minecraft's out of that investment.
 
Battlefield 4 was 50% off within a few months of release, Ghosts has yet to break 33% off.

The old iterations rarely go below $10-$20 on sale as the gameplay is too similar. Activision would prefer you to pick up the newest product and DLC, rather than getting an older game and getting the 'Call of Duty experience' for significantly cheaper.

That's the problem with Activision they will never lower there prices to say 75% even with CoD. MW1 was 12 euro's with that sale but it didn't get any lower and they won't. It's abysmal that they still ask so mutch money from a game from nearly 7 years ago. And they still won't lower there prices on other games.
 
Would never exist regardless?

I think there is a very good argument to be had that Activision might be better served funding 100 smaller projects, and maybe you get a couple Minecraft's out of that investment.

They have made no indication that they are interested in making mid-tier games so the point is rather moot.
 
They have made no indication that they are interested in making mid-tier games so the point is rather moot.

Clearly, but that's the point of this conversation. Is it wise to spend $500 million on a single game? I suspect the answer is no in this case, and frankly I'm wondering what Activision saw that made them think this franchise was going to be worth that investment.
 
I'll take the bet on the bold part. People are saying $500 mil for marketing is outrageous (which even I think it is), but I still think the game will break even. What's the official end for the holiday season? For those who might be on the fence if this is serious avatar bet or not, it is. I like my chances.

You want the rules to be 15 million by the end of the holiday season(we'll say March 2015 to be nice)? I'll take it right now.
 
Clearly, but that's the point of this conversation. Is it wise to spend $500 million on a single game? I suspect the answer is no in this case, and frankly I'm wondering what Activision saw that made them think this franchise was going to be worth that investment.

Maybe you are just not seeing it. You already talked about lukewarm reception which is just not true.
 
PC is a non factor.

When the game is being designed to run on low end X86-64 PCs masquerading as consoles why wouldn't you take the little bit of extra effort to bring the game out on the other X86-64 platform? The excuses they've made about spreading the development teams too thin or keeping the population together are laughable.

Not sure why people think the PC is an important market for such kind of games.

"Such kind of games"? Shooting games with a side of loot crawling? I guess games like Borderlands and Diablo really don't belong on PC? Hell, by your logic, COD and Battlefield don't belong on PC, nevermind the fact they originated there.

Fact is if an AAA publisher and AAA developer want to get the most return on investment out of their titles, they won't ignore PC. Bungie's excuses are just that, excuses. I am willing to cut them some slack, however, as it might be Activision pulling the no-PC strings.
 
A lot of snap reaction in here. Activision didn't arrive at the $500 million figure by throwing darts at a board. This is a long term investment in a franchise that will have microtransactions and likely will have large expansions/DLC as it moves along, not to mention several more mainline games over the course of the next decade.

Activision is trying to build a new tentpole franchise here on the level of COD. That takes $$$, especially up front. If the first game is a big success and moves 7-8 million units across all platforms, they'll be in a great position going forward.
 
I'm not surprised. I'm sure they'll re-use assets for Destiny 2, 3, etc. which will help with future costs. They also will sell some millions of map packs which will cut into the required amount of base game units necessary to sell to profit.

I think it will sell 10m units, easily.
 
Wow this game is destined (no pun intended) to fail with that budget.

The joke really does write itself, doesn't it?

The sheer amount of money seems borderline insane to me, especially with the as-of-yet unimpressed previews, even if the press was only shown a small part of the game. With that kind of budget to make up for, they can't exactly allow something to stop the hype train.

Now let's see if this really does become the next CoD.
 
IDK, seems reasonable. It could pay off. By all accounts people still love their shooters. It takes money to make money. I mean, they're gonna be writing books and comics and shit right? Probably some animated films? An expansion sized DLC every other year with big sequels hitting in between. Destiny is going to be something that will exist for years and years, not something that releases and then fades away.
 
Well, if they intend on making a few games out of Destiny and if it is really going to change the the future of FPS, this would make sense, no?

Paying for a very large studio for 10 years, plus marketing and other costs for several major releases, adds up fast. But even on a per-game basis, it's a steep cost. The game doesn't need to be a hit to be successful, it needs to be a smash.

No pressure, Bungie. None at all.
 
Maybe you are just not seeing it. You already talked about lukewarm reception which is just not true.

Did you not read the thread about the recent media blowout? The reception on this forum was full of "meh". The two sites I read previews of the game on had very "meh" receptions as well.
 
I absolutely can't wait for Destiny. However, I'm extremely disappointed with the way Bungie has marketed this game thus far.

They haven't shown us much. The most recent video from a few weeks ago showed absolutely nothing other than some guy wandering around looking up at the sky.

Weapons and gear have their own talent trees. There will be a major city hub for players to interact and purchase gear from vendors. Vehicles can be upgraded and customized.

The average player knows none of this - based on the gameplay videos that Bungie has put out, they have no reason to believe that this game is anything more than a linear, vapid FPS game.

Bungie needs to put together a ~15 minute video showing a new mission in a new world. They need to show us a specific class, tell us about the abiliities, show us the inventory, the character screen, the talent trees, etc. They've been almost entirely silent on the RPG elements of the game.
 
Paying for a very large studio for 10 years, plus marketing and other costs for several major releases, adds up fast. But even on a per-game basis, it's a steep cost. The game doesn't need to be a hit to be successful, it needs to be a smash.

No pressure, Bungie. None at all.

This. I hope Bungie can deliver because this is the type of project that could break a studio.
 
$500m for a AAA FPS franchise is not that big of a risk for Activision. A bunch of commercial and billboards and boom: new franchise.
 
Activison, I'm not hyped for this game. You need everybody and their 2nd cousins to be hyped with that amount of expenditure.
 
A lot of snap reaction in here. Activision didn't arrive at the $500 million figure by throwing darts at a board. This is a long term investment in a franchise that will have microtransactions and likely will have large expansions/DLC as it moves along, not to mention several more mainline games over the course of the next decade.

Activision is trying to build a new tentpole franchise here on the level of COD. That takes $$$, especially up front. If the first game is a big success and moves 7-8 million units across all platforms, they'll be in a great position going forward.

Exactly this. Obviously people are not looking at it this way though, because to me it makes sense... I mean, Activision I am sure knows more what they are doing than anyone here lol

I believe that Destiny will be the next cod/halo of this gen and the next.
 
What is your definition of successful? Because GW2 is doing well and has just started to release in China as of last week.

Successful MMO != WoW Killer

You seem to missunderstand. I know that pretty much all the WoW clones that have released on pc since 2004 end up being a succes. They do turn a profit in the end afterall. But I'd argue that MMO's hardly do amazing on pc. Most of them sell a few million thanks to WoW players that buy them, seeking an MMO to finally switch over to from WoW. Then they end up with some hundred thousand players that keep the game running and profitable via the microtransactions, that inevitably gets implemented into the games once they go f2p due to players normally returning to WoW.

In the end there's really only been one MMO in the last 10 years that really matters, and has been able to provide a game interesting enough to have a monthly fee. The rest are simply poor imitations that live thanks to the players that WoW have brought to the genre.

I imagine you disagree with this assessment though.
 
Clearly, but that's the point of this conversation. Is it wise to spend $500 million on a single game? I suspect the answer is no in this case, and frankly I'm wondering what Activision saw that made them think this franchise was going to be worth that investment.

All their reliable mega franchises are in decline, WoW CoD, even seemingly smaller games like Diablo. They want the next hyper profitable franchise and they're seemingly willing o invest exorbitant amount of money on the chance of achieving it.

I think it's less of what they see and more of what they want, and what they want is another 20 million selling franchise.
 
It's a bad move all around. What do you see about Destiny that makes it even a lasting IP? Making the 2nd and 3rd games won't be free they will probably run 100 - 200 million each. No way does that ever make Destiny profitable. It's a bad bet unless Destiny is a trend setting smash hit which it doesn't seem to be from where I'm standing.

I don't see how I could answer that as I haven't played it.
So where exactly are you standing, you seem to know something we don't?
 
This is why Kotick is CEO and the rest of us sit on the sidelines. I have little doubt he will come out ahead on this investment.
 
I feel like Destiny was already on track to deliver the goods on the current Media and word of mouth alone

Not to mention being a flagship shooter for Current Gen

500 Million seems like overkill and could hurt the game more than it helps

Should go with a more reasonable marketing budget and hold on to the cash
 
I wonder if the focus on loot was mandated by Activision so they could sell people a million different skins for the million different guns you could create.
 
Paying for a very large studio for 10 years, plus marketing and other costs for several major releases, adds up fast. But even on a per-game basis, it's a steep cost. The game doesn't need to be a hit to be successful, it needs to be a smash.

No pressure, Bungie. None at all.

I think you're right. It's obviously a big risk, not saying it isn't. But this series* can be as huge as halo or cod was though. There must be a reason why they think it is a good investment.
 
You seem to missunderstand. I know that pretty much all the WoW clones that have released on pc since 2004 end up being a succes. They do turn a profit in the end afterall. But I'd argue that MMO's hardly do amazing on pc. Most of them sell a few million thanks to WoW players that buy them, seeking an MMO to finally switch over to from WoW. Then they end up with some hundred thousand players that keep the game running and profitable via the microtransactions in the games.

But in the end there's really only been one MMO in the last 10 years that really matters, and has been able to provide a game interesting enough to have a monthly fee. The rest are simply poor imitations that live thanks to the players that WoW have brought to the genre.

I imagine you disagree with this assessment though.

No, I do agree WoW is currently the best MMO on the market. But my original point was refuting the idea that the PC market is non-factor in this type of genre. Ignoring WoW, there's a decent pool of MMOs that do well as of this moment on the PC market. To think that Destiny won't benefit from tapping into here is ludicrous.

To put it simply a guarunteed couple million plus sales exists here and it would be more plausible for 500 million dollar investment if it were to be tapped into.
 
I think you're right. It's obviously a big risk, not saying it isn't. But this series* can be as huge as halo or cod was though. There must be a reason why they think it is a good investment.

They are top of the line businessmen. They know exactly what they're doing. They would laugh their asses off (all the way to the bank) if they read this thread.
 
Did you not read the thread about the recent media blowout? The reception on this forum was full of "meh". The two sites I read previews of the game on had very "meh" receptions as well.

Still doesn't make it universally true. We are still in anecdotal territory here.
 
I think you're right. It's obviously a big risk, not saying it isn't. But this series* can be as huge as halo or cod was though. There must be a reason why they think it is a good investment.

I feel like having this much weight on the game.... the mass marketing

the influx of unpopular practices and systems diving in (think of all the merchandise, tie ins, DLC, Season Passes, DRM, Microtransactions, etc...)

Is it even going to be a game when Activision gets done with it?
 
500 million is dumb, they cant make that kind of money back, assuming a publisher gets $30 from a $60 game sale (and thats probably high balling it) they would have to sell 17 million copies to get just a small return on investment. Games need to have lower budgets while being aimed at a niche segment of the market and carve out their own larger market segment like the souls series has. This all or nothing approach from publishers is just too dangerous for the other parties involved.
 
No, I do agree WoW is currently the best MMO on the market. But my original point was refuting the idea that the PC market is non-factor in this type of genre. Ignoring WoW, there's a decent pool of MMOs that do well as of this moment on the PC market. To think that Destiny won't benefit from tapping into here is ludicrous.

To put it simply a guarunteed couple million plus sales exists.

I think we agree then. I certainly think it's stupid not to release the game on PC as well. Though I don't think pc is as important a factor as you do probably. Destiny will appeal to a different audience than the typical MMO crowd, it's very different from WoW and it's cousins gameplay wise.

Yep EA sure knew what they were doing with TOR.

You mean that MMO that was and still is profitable for them? ( still a bad game though )
 
They are top of the line businessmen. They know exactly what they're doing. They would laugh their asses off (all the way to the bank) if they read this thread.

500 million is no laughing matter. Almost nothing business wise has a 100% chance on a decision tree, that's life. There is no possible way you can downplay the fact this is a massive risk regardless of how you look at it. Last gen consoles sales are dropping fast and next gen doesn't have the install base.

If this doesn't pan out it could massively effect the profitability in Activision.
 
You want the rules to be 15 million by the end of the holiday season(we'll say March 2015 to be nice)? I'll take it right now.

I don't know about actual numbers sold (although that would be a better way to tell) I was concerned more about breaking even as to the person I quote said that it won't. If he's so sure that it won't break even by holiday season, I'll take him on that avatar bet.

Sorry, but the 15 mil is not the bet I'm willing to take. But maybe someone else will in here
 
I absolutely can't wait for Destiny. However, I'm extremely disappointed with the way Bungie has marketed this game thus far.

They haven't shown us much. The most recent video from a few weeks ago showed absolutely nothing other than some guy wandering around looking up at the sky.

Weapons and gear have their own talent trees. There will be a major city hub for players to interact and purchase gear from vendors. Vehicles can be upgraded and customized.

The average player knows none of this - based on the gameplay videos that Bungie has put out, they have no reason to believe that this game is anything more than a linear, vapid FPS game.

Bungie needs to put together a ~15 minute video showing a new mission in a new world. They need to show us a specific class, tell us about the abiliities, show us the inventory, the character screen, the talent trees, etc. They've been almost entirely silent on the RPG elements of the game.

One would assume that would be at E3... hope we also find out when the beta is too.
 
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