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[MoG EclipsE]

I feel like having this much weight on the game.... the mass marketing

the influx of unpopular practices and systems diving in (think of all the merchandise, tie ins, DLC, Season Passes, DRM, Microtransactions, etc...)

Is it even going to be a game when Activision gets done with it?

Exactly it will be much more. This is not just 500 mil down for one single game. This franchise will make them a huge amount of cash over the next decade or more.

** This is of course assuming that it is as successful as they are projecting it will be, which I personally think it will.

 

[Sothpaw]

Companies make bad decisions all the time. If this bombed, it wouldn't be the first or last time something like this has happened.

I understand that but my original comment was about Activision being competent and having good business reasons for the investment. It may fail and it may be the next COD.

 

[Jarmel]

I don't know about actual numbers sold (although that would be a better way to tell) I was concerned more about breaking even as to the person I quote said that it won't. If he's so sure that it won't break even by holiday season, I'll take him on that avatar bet.

Sorry, but the 15 mil is not the bet I'm willing to take. But maybe someone else will in here

It honestly depends on how they want to make a profit, there could be micro transactions galore. We don't know yet.

 

[Maxim726X]

If it's just coming out on next gen consoles... Yikes.

What attach rate would the game need to sell 15 million copies? 80%?

 

[a916]

That's the problem with Activision they will never lower there prices to say 75% even with CoD. MW1 was 12 euro's with that sale but it didn't get any lower and they won't. It's abysmal that they still ask so mutch money from a game from nearly 7 years ago. And they still won't lower there prices on other games.

Does it not work as new? They can dictate however much they want it to sell for it and obviously it's worked out well for them so far.

 

[Trickster]

If it's just coming out on next gen consoles... Yikes.

What attach rate would the game need to sell 15 million copies? 80%?

....It's not

 

[Principate]

....It's not

But last gen sales are in freefall.

 

[Maxim726X]

....It's not

My bad, reading through the first page that's the impression I got.

Still quite the uphill battle. Guess they're expecting to lose money on the first installment, or they will make up for the loss with DLC.

 

[Sothpaw]

If it's just coming out on next gen consoles... Yikes.

What attach rate would the game need to sell 15 million copies? 80%?

The game need not sell 15M copies. The $500M will be spread out over the life of the franchise. The goal is that the franchise will be profitable over the life of the investment. They know the chances of selling 15M of Destiny 1 are slim.

 

[hodgy100]

But last gen sales are in freefall.

console sales are. are game sales in freefall too?

 

[n00bsauce87]

It honestly depends on how they want to make a profit, there could be micro transactions galore. We don't know yet.

It's not even a matter of fear (personally) that it's gonna happen, it's expected. And I'm not saying that with a smile on my face either. You are literally building a new eco system IP that is a more serious version of Borderlands (shoot n loot). How does one not try to make more money off of this?

Ya know, it might very well exceed 15 mil. Still not gonna bet on it though. The other guy left me with some kinda feeling, I really want him to accept on those terms he laid down.

 

[Principate]

console sales are. are game sales in freefall too?

Yes any NPD, and the limited information from pal will tell you that. Last gen AAA aren't selling like they used to be.

 

[RPGCrazied]

Then it'll sell 5 - 6 million copies and they will deem it a failure. What is with the big ass budget for games these days? No wonder developers lose jobs fast in today's world.

 

[Nokterian]

Does it not work as new? They can dictate however much they want it to sell for it and obviously it's worked out well for them so far.

New? It's not new it's 7 years old. Still asking 20 euro's for it. Yeah fuck that.

 

[Wasdie]

$500 million over 10 years is not that much in perspective. The franchise has tons of potential. It could blow up in their face and fail, but I highly doubt that.

A solid, calculated risk.

 

[darkziosj]

Yep they are not going to recover that money.

 

[Netherscourge]

Would have been nice if they tossed them $500 million when they first STARTED developing Destiny.

A big chunk of that is now probably just Marketing materials - commercials, ads, paying off review sites, etc...

 

[coldfoot]

Battlefield 4 was 50% off within a few months of release, Ghosts has yet to break 33% off.

The old iterations rarely go below $10-$20 on sale as the gameplay is too similar. Activision would prefer you to pick up the newest product and DLC, rather than getting an older game and getting the 'Call of Duty experience' for significantly cheaper.

Maybe PC folk should start spending more money on games before asking for ports then. Selling 5 million copies is meaningless if the ASP is $5.

 

[Kieli]

$500 million over 10 years is not that much in perspective. The franchise has tons of potential. It could blow up in their face and fail, but I highly doubt that.

A solid, calculated risk.

This makes way, way more sense. $500 million is very reasonable over a 10-year period for something like Destiny.

 

[DrROBschiz]

Exactly it will be much more. This is not just 500 mil down for one single game. This franchise will make them a huge amount of cash over the next decade or more.

** This is of course assuming that it is as successful as they are projecting it will be, which I personally think it will.

Hey I am excited for it

Looks like a genuinely strong effort from the gurus at Bungie

I'm just concerned that the sheer amount of money being thrown at it will corrupt its quality, focus, and vision that is laid out for it.

It wouldn't be the first or last time its happened to a game series of its potential

How do they plan on keeping the integrity intact if they never learn lessons from previous failures?

 

[Symbiotx]

lol @ doomsayers

Halo 3 grossed $300 million in its first week
Halo 4 grossed $300 million in its first week

This isn't Halo, but it is Bungie, and it isn't exclusive to one platform. I'm pretty sure they'll make a profit.

 

[funkypie]

Well the single player looks like shit already. Couple that with the fact that you can use your loot in multiplayer which is the opposite of having a set of tightly balanced weapons and you have a recipe for disaster.

This is coming from a fairly big Halo fan. I want tightly crafted multiplayer. This game does not seem like it would be for me or for anyone looking for that.

go play halo then. this game isn't even supposed to be some 6v6 dude bro shooter with small maps.

 

[Sothpaw]

Then it'll sell 5 - 6 million copies and they will deem it a failure. What is with the big ass budget for games these days? No wonder developers lose jobs fast in today's world.

Destiny is an exceptional case. Most AAA games like say Borderlands or TLOU are extremely happy to sell 5M copies. But Activision wants Destiny to have 5 sequels that sell, say 12M each, along with selling shitloads of merchandise and TV shows and movies. Will it work out? Maybe. I can assure you that no one posting here is qualified to tell you. And even if they were they still can't predict the future.

 

[desertdroog]

This will look like a bargain in 10 years.

 

[Principate]

lol @ doomsayers

Halo 3 grossed $300 million in its first week
Halo 4 grossed $300 million in its first week

This isn't Halo, but it is Bungie, and it isn't exclusive to one platform. I'm pretty sure they'll make a profit.

Halo is a decade old franchise and a primary system seller. Destiny is a new IP competing with all the other big games for your money.

Also publishers don't get all that grossed revenue not remotely. How many games have sold 16 million on their first outing... yeah...

 

[Sothpaw]

This will look like a bargain in 10 years.

I tend to agree with you tbh.

 

[sixteen-bit]

That has to be the most expensive game.

 

[nelsonroyale]

The least they could do is set aside a million of that or so to revive Outcast. What a waste.

 

[Sothpaw]

Halo is a decade old franchise and a primary system seller. Destiny is a new IP competing with all the other big games for your money.

Also publishers don't get all that grossed revenue not remotely. How many games have sold 16 million on their first outing... yeah...

Destiny 1 need not sell 16M or even 10M for the investment to be successful.

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

AAAAAAAAAA

 

[Netherscourge]

GTA5, which was rated M for Mature (limiting sales to minors), racked up $817 million in 24-hours and was only available on the PS3 and X360.

This was literally weeks before the PS4/XB1 launched.

Destiny has a great developer pedigree, tons of console experience and is backed by Activision's $500 millions.

I think Destiny will be fine. Once all is said and done, they'll cover that $500 million and THEN some - probably even within the first few weeks.

 

[Trickster]

That has to be the most expensive game.

Assuming the 500 millions is solely for Destiny 1, Then it's around twice that of GTA5, which clocked in at around 265 million and was and is still by far the most expensive game ever. Which is kinda why I doubt the 500 million being only for Destiny 1, and for future Destiny franchise stuff as well.

 

[Sothpaw]

That has to be the most expensive game.

FRANCHISE. Destiny 1 did not cost $500M, Activision would never have paid for that. The $500M gets spread out over the life of the franchise. This is why we have GAAP accounting.

 

[Sothpaw]

Assuming the 500 millions is solely for Destiny 1, Then it's around twice that of GTA5, which clocked in at around 265 million.

It is most certainly not the cost of just Destiny 1.

Edit: Sorry for double post, just trying to stop spread of misunderstanding about Destiny 1's cost.

 

[Principate]

Destiny 1 need not sell 16M or even 10M for the investment to be successful.

If that 500 million for 1 game is true yes it does. Publishers get roughly half $60 game, you do the maths.

50 million for 1 year is also ridiculously low. That's fairly low in todays AAA.

 

[gatti-man]

I don't see how I could answer that as I haven't played it.
So where exactly are you standing, you seem to know something we don't?

Exactly. So why invest 500 million into it. It's a bad move. Even in alpha people saw something different in titanfall. Destiny doesn't really have anything like that. I'll say it again 8 million will be good sales for Destiny at full price, amazing even.

 

[ilikesanta]

FRANCHISE. Destiny 1 did not cost $500M, Activision would never have paid for that. The $500M gets spread out over the life of the franchise. This is why we have GAAP accounting.

Maybe the game is riddled with micro transactions?

 

[krypt0nian]

lol @ doomsayers

Halo 3 grossed $300 million in its first week
Halo 4 grossed $300 million in its first week

This isn't Halo, but it is Bungie, and it isn't exclusive to one platform. I'm pretty sure they'll make a profit.

This is going to be a fun topic to look back on. There are those who seems to be rooting as hard or harder for this to fail. LOL

 

[Trickster]

It is most certainly not the cost of just Destiny 1.

I absolutely agree. But the wording in the article does make it sound like it is. I think it's just poor wording, either on the part of Activision or the writer of the article.

 

[Mr. RPG]

Has a new IP ever achieved 15 million copies sold in its first entry?

Yes, more than double that, Pokemon Red and Blue.

 

[Principate]

"Analysts said $500 million would likely be a record spent on a single game - especially one without an established track record. To break even, Activision would have to sell about 15 million to 16 million units of a $60 game, analysts said."

For 10 years is not stated in the OP.

 

[Sothpaw]

If that 500 million for 1 game is true yes it does. Publishers get roughly half $60 game, you do the maths.

I am a professional accountant and I am telling you that when you have a 10 year deal with a company it is against GAAP principals to attribute the entire $500M to Destiny 1. Feel free to speculate about whether or not the investment will be successful. I am telling you, as a matter of fact, that the $500 is not just for Destiny 1 though.

 

[MoG EclipsE]

Hey I am excited for it

Looks like a genuinely strong effort from the gurus at Bungie

I'm just concerned that the sheer amount of money being thrown at it will corrupt its quality, focus, and vision that is laid out for it.

It wouldn't be the first or last time its happened to a game series of its potential

How do they plan on keeping the integrity intact if they never learn lessons from previous failures?

You are right, this is also one of my biggest concerns for this game. I have extremely high hopes for this game and I truly hope the focus on quality campaign, story, etc was not lost because their main focus was instead micro transactions, DLC, etc etc. We will find out soon though.

 

[Jomjom]

Wonder how much Sony is contributing. I would think very little as one of their buildings only sold for less than 50 million.

 

[Forsaken82]

GTA5, which was rated M for Mature (limiting sales to minors), racked up $817 million in 24-hours and was only available on the PS3 and X360.

This was literally weeks before the PS4/XB1 launched.

Destiny has a great developer pedigree, tons of console experience and is backed by Activision's $500 millions.

I think Destiny will be fine. Once all is said and done, they'll cover that $500 million and THEN some - probably even within the first few weeks.

GTA5 is a huge brand. Destiny is a new untested IP. I personally think it will do extremely well as I am super hyped for it, however Comparing GTA5 sales to potential Destiny sales is ridiculous.

The success of Borderlands is a far better comparison, and Borderlands, if I am not mistaken was one of if not THE best selling new IP last generation.

 

[PanicFreak]

It honestly depends on how they want to make a profit, there could be micro transactions galore. We don't know yet.

It's going to cost $60 a year at minimum to have all the Destiny content but it will likely be closer to $90.

Activision will be looking for 1 billion per year out of Destiny. That will require around 20 million people purchasing it each year.

 

[Principate]

I am a professional accountant and I am telling you that when you have a 10 year deal with a company it is against GAAP principals to attribute the entire $500M to Destiny 1. Feel free to speculate about whether or not the investment will be successful. I am telling you, as a matter of fact, that the $500 is not just for Destiny 1 though.

This isn't a business statement this is PR. PR doesn't have fall in line with normal accounting practises, I've see it plenty enough.

 

[krypt0nian]

Wonder how much Sony is contributing. I would think very little as one of their buildings only sold for less than 50 million.

Does not compute.

 

[Sothpaw]

"Analysts said $500 million would likely be a record spent on a single game - especially one without an established track record. To break even, Activision would have to sell about 15 million to 16 million units of a $60 game, analysts said."

For 10 years is not stated in the OP.

The 10 year deal is referenced in the OP. $500 "would be" a record spent on a single game. Luckily for Activision the $500M isn't for a single game.

 

[maabus1999]

FRANCHISE. Destiny 1 did not cost $500M, Activision would never have paid for that. The $500M gets spread out over the life of the franchise. This is why we have GAAP accounting.

There are multiple references and sources saying this is for one game, not the franchise.