anexanhume
Member
The semi-custom business doesn't contain any VR content right now. So that puts more certainty on it being consoles.
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AMD Reports 2016 First Quarter Results + Conference Call [3 semi-customs this year]
R
Rösti
Unconfirmed Member
Semi-custom and gaming the bigger driver for the coming quarters.
Crimson_Gold
Member
Sony took Sega's soul with the PS2. That shambling corpse is not the company that brought us streets of rage 2.
amstradcpc
Member
The two 2014 semicustom contract wins were rumored for Nintendo and Apple.The mid 2015 win was rumored for Sony.
anexanhume
Member
AMD wouldn't elaborate on whether the new design wins are iterative or would cannibalize existing sales. Exactly the question we were wondering and it got shot down. They want to wait for partners to make their announcements. So definitely sounds like consoles.
Follow up: past deals were negotiated at beginning and ASP were set. No renegotiation expected. As far as VR applies to consoles - they're excited for it in semi-custom space, but nothing to announce. Any new terms would have to be a new console proper. So reading between lines, if any design shrinks for planned, sounds like it was all negotiated up front.
Follow up: past deals were negotiated at beginning and ASP were set. No renegotiation expected. As far as VR applies to consoles - they're excited for it in semi-custom space, but nothing to announce. Any new terms would have to be a new console proper. So reading between lines, if any design shrinks for planned, sounds like it was all negotiated up front.
Jup.
Could be. PS4K, X1.5, XOne Slim
anexanhume
Member
Summary of forecast questions:
- Semi-custom: 3Q is always peak. 2Q ramp starts up, but 3Q is peak this year as well. They think segment will grow year over year.
- Total of 3 design wins lifetime revenue 1.5B, come across next 3-4 years. This is different than current console business. They expect to hit steady state in a few years.
- Past semi-custom deals were negotiated at beginning and ASP were set. No renegotiation expected. As far as VR applies to consoles - they're excited for it in semi-custom space, but nothing to announce. Any new terms would have to be a new console proper.
- The semi-custom business doesn't contain any VR content right now.
- AMD wouldn't elaborate on whether the new design wins are iterative or would cannibalize existing sales. They want to wait for partners to make their announcements.
With almost 100% probability the NX is counted in those 3. No other company can deliver a x86 SoC with enough GPU power for consoles.
Intel's integrated graphics are not enough, and Nvidia (I think) only has ARM SoCs.
Welp.
mugurumakensei
Member
PS4K, XBox 1.5 2, NX
No. It means at least some component of the APU changed. Sometimes, it's because of other constraints as in the XBox 360 slim. However, given there is nothing too exotic in XBox One or PS4 aside from XBox One's ESRAM, it'd be fair to say they are both getting a revised version with better specs.
No. It means at least some component of the APU changed. Sometimes, it's because of other constraints as in the XBox 360 slim. However, given there is nothing too exotic in XBox One or PS4 aside from XBox One's ESRAM, it'd be fair to say they are both getting a revised version with better specs.
My thoughts for now.. So if the potential Xbox successor is ramping up production in 2017, that means release 2018?
So would that mean Polaris with GDDR5X and not hbm1 or hbm2?
Not necessarily. These things won't be sat around in boxes for long. Plus it seems to be talking about early 2017 on the slide.
anexanhume
Member
I would expect a shrink to be par of the original negotiations. They seemed to indicate that by stating how the negotiations are for the life of the deal. Naturally, any console maker would want to guarantee shrinks so they could lower their own console ASP down the road.
So building up stockpiles for release day and next few shipments after release does not take long anymore?
The high performance PC pillar descriptions seem a bit anemic. I expect the performance per watt metric to have diminishing sales returns outside of laptops. We are reaching the point where people will be able to put a decently powerful video card in a computer with a 300 watt power supply.
The other three bullet points are:
-People will buy our products for the obvious reasons
-Our products are comparatively less shitty than they have been in 10 years
-We'll sell more stuff this year. We promise.
I was hoping for them to be much more competitive to keep Intel and Nvidia honest.
The other three bullet points are:
-People will buy our products for the obvious reasons
-Our products are comparatively less shitty than they have been in 10 years
-We'll sell more stuff this year. We promise.
I was hoping for them to be much more competitive to keep Intel and Nvidia honest.
My bet is on GDDR5X because I'm assuming they'll continue down the Jaguar architecture path as well. HBM1 has a 4GB limit and HBM2 will require memory controller changes to interface with Jaguar. There's also manufacturing cost considerations between HBM2 and GDDR5X.
The race for performance per watt will pay off if they can get themselves into embedded systems (think autonomous cars) and high-performance computing sector. If you can squeeze more computing power out of the same electrical and thermal conditions as your competitor, you're going to find yourselves customers.
Consider also that an upgraded system launch isn't going to necessarily need the level of stock that a console at the start of a generation would need. A good amount of consoles sold are still going to be the lower priced models that already exist. They could easily launch with a more limited supply while ramping up next year.
mugurumakensei
Member
It involves a ramp-up of about 4-6 months. So, we're laking at late 2016-H1 2017.
You need to increase performance/watt in order to keep your TDP under control in larger dies with a lot more transistors. Otherwise you have to end up resorting to expensive cooling solutions.
If your 28nm GPU with 6000M transistors has a TDP of 300W then using, say, double the transistors at 14nm without caring about TDP leads to a device with a TDP of 600W (running at full load).
I'm going with NX, Neo, and One 1.5.
Exciting times ahead
This on top of PSVR, Vive and Occulus? The fuck. I need to come up with some good excuses for the wife, and make more money lol. Adding to the gaming expenses, I just recently bought a new racing wheel and an Xbox Elite controller. Oh dear….
blu
Wants the largest console games publisher to avoid Nintendo's platforms.
That surely is their main problem stopping NV from console wins /rolleyes
Exactly. Shrinks are never announced as design wins, as the former are negotiated with their original design wins. And essentially, a design win is your part going into a new product, and a shrink is not such an instance, as you already have your part in the product, to boot.
I meant specifically as a sales tool. Performance per watt is obviously important for progress, but once a certain threshold is reached most consumers will have far less of an interest. AMD's video card's reputation for generating heat like a small space heater was a big part of what put them in the position they are in. Once cards run cool and quiet people will just take it for granted.
anexanhume
Member
No. 14nm FinFETs are much more power efficient. You can assume that power density per unit area will roughly stay the same.
mugurumakensei
Member
Die shrinks are implicitly part of any original negotiations as AMD just sells a design. The manufacturers deal with the die shrinks of that architecture themselves.
New custom design wins means AMD had to create a new design. Now, it doesn't necessarily mean higher specced revisions. However, if I was a console manufacturer, I'd like to get the most value for my money especially if I expect a platform to have a long life-span.
I certainly hope the +40% IPC holds true and they can keep clocks 4.5+GHz. They'd actually be competitive with Intel's core microarchitecture. AMD hasn't matched/beaten Intel since Netburst. Though I feel like that advantage would be short lived as I've heard rumors a new microarchitecture that's not entirely silicon is coming from Intel in a few years.
I doubt they'd get server marketshare because power consumption. But they could get some desktop marketshare back.
I doubt they'd get server marketshare because power consumption. But they could get some desktop marketshare back.
This is a shareholder document. All other slides are also more technical in nature.
Of course. I'm just highlighting the fact that Perf/Watt is an important consideration. You get some/most of that for free in the die shrink, but with smaller transistors you also get more leakage, so you do also need to look at architectural solutions to manage power.
anexanhume
Member
Who are you calling the manufacturer here? That same semi-custom team would be responsible for shrinking the design, too. They'd have to synthesize the design with new transistor libraries and re-run all their worst case analyses to make sure the design closes. It's not just pushing a button.
There are a lot of ways to mitigate leakage. FinFET by design helps. Lower gate voltages (which FinFET enables) help. Advances in doping help.
This is where the conspiracy theorists will see if they were right. Intel will either suddenly come up with a CPU design that gains much more than the usual 10% per iteration for once, or we'll get the usual 10% and people will have to face the fact that we have finally reached diminish returns on silicon.
mugurumakensei
Member
The manufacturer would typically be TSMC, FoxConn, etc depending on who Sony,. Microsoft, and Nintendo partner with to actually build the APU.
blu
Wants the largest console games publisher to avoid Nintendo's platforms.
They have a semi-custom ARM server win? Ha!
Now we're playing with Power.
Graphics Horse
Member
Is the 'taking semi cutom business beyond gaming' still a thing for this year or was that a misquote?
I've been wondering about product binning, do you think it would make sense or be possible to create regular ps4 14nm chips from substandard ps4k chips if low yields are going to be a problem? I feel they could be killing two birds with one stone here but I am clueless on the technology.
I've been wondering about product binning, do you think it would make sense or be possible to create regular ps4 14nm chips from substandard ps4k chips if low yields are going to be a problem? I feel they could be killing two birds with one stone here but I am clueless on the technology.
anexanhume
Member
Ok, in that case, it's not true. TSMC is not responsible for synthesizing the design in a smaller process. That onus is on AMD. TSMC doesn't have the necessary expertise, nor would AMD/Sony/Microsoft want to share more design details than necessary to a foundry partner.
mugurumakensei
Member
Thinking about you are correct. However, the fact remains AMD would not announce something that was agreed upon in a previous contract as a design win to investors. As it would be fraud to report it as such since it gives the impression of another revenue stream.
There are rumors AMD is designing semi-custom x86 SoCs for Apple's iMac line for 2017 and 2018: http://wccftech.com/amd-making-custom-x86-soc-apple-imacs-2017-2018/
General Lee
Member
So it sounds like one of these semi-custom chips isn't gaming related, and at least one won't see the light of day in 2016. I'd say NX is guaranteed 2016, and from what we've heard so far, PS4K would be the other one releasing maybe spring 2017 latest. This could leave MS with no new console until late 2017 earliest.
I could totally see Apple just handing out a big pile of money for AMD to manufacture a semi-custom Zen/HBM/Navi SoC for the next "revolutionary" OS X device.
I could totally see Apple just handing out a big pile of money for AMD to manufacture a semi-custom Zen/HBM/Navi SoC for the next "revolutionary" OS X device.
I'm going with NX, Neo, and One 1.5.
Exciting times ahead
Yeah, about that... There have been multiple rumors of Apple having a design win. If that's the case, it means one of two things:
A.) PS NEO and/or XBox 10 don't/doesn't actually count as (a) new design win(s) because they are just new and updated versions of existing products and don't have any architectural changes (or MS really doesn't have an upgraded XBox planned), or
B.) Nintendo does not have a design win with AMD.
The former is more likely because one of the wins is ARM-based and Apple is going to use an x86 APU based on the rumors.
Here's the funny thing, though. If "A" applies to both Sony and Microsoft's new hardware, it would mean that either there's another company with a deign win that we don't know about, or that Nintendo has two design wins: one x86 and one ARM. That would be rather interesting, wouldn't it?
Here's what doesn't make sense though: AMD seemingly has very low revenue expectations out of two of those chips: $1 billion over the course of 3 years. (This was brought up in one of the NX threads.) There's something funny about that, and Kitguru had an explanation for why:
So, that makes it even less likely that any of these are referring to the upgraded twins unless this is a case of extreme lowballing. It would also be a huge sign that NX is vastly underpowered, again unless AMD is playing it very safe with these numbers.
I wish AMD would say if the chips use Polaris or not. Then things would really get interesting!
Oh, and if this is true it confirms ARM for NX and possibly that the Ori dev was right that we're only getting a handheld, though it's possible that Nintendo's win is for two different but similar chips.
mugurumakensei
Member
The CPU in Neo would not be a design win. However, as the new GPU contains a higher CU count that does not exist in the generation of GPUs from which the PS4 GPU that would definitely be a new design and not counted in the original contract for PS4 APU.
Awesome.
New Xbox, PS4K, and the NX.
It would be pretty crazy if each one of these systems ends up sporting a Polaris GPU.