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[Guy Legend]

Analyst: Nintendo May Trigger Next-Gen War

The current generation of consoles still has three to four more years before newer hardware hits the market, but Nintendo's next may arrive sooner, according to one analyst.

Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian said in an investor note on Monday, "At this point, we believe the consensus opinion among industry professionals is that the next significant hardware refresh is unlikely to occur before 2011, and more likely in 2012."

But he said Nintendo's next home console could arrive before then. "One possible exception to console timing may be Nintendo, which could opt to upgrade the Wii with faster processing power, DVD capability and/or greater storage."

The original Xbox had roughly a four year run before its successor Xbox 360 came to market. PS2 was out for about six years prior to the release of PS3, and Nintendo's GameCube had a five year run prior to Wii's launch.

Sebastian also noted that Microsoft recently began production of a 65nm-based CPU for Xbox 360, and is also working on cutting costs in other areas related to Xbox 360 hardware.

The company is expected to cut the retail price of Xbox 360 later this year.

Commenting on the European market following last week's Leipzig Games Convention, Sebastian also noted Sony's heavy PS3 presence at the show. But he said the console is still not yet priced for true mass market penetration.

"While Sony is clearly not standing still, and is demonstrating some better momentum in North America, we do not believe the PS3 is likely to gain significant market share until hardware prices reach mass market levels," he said.

http://www.edge-online.com/news/analyst-nintendo-may-trigger-next-gen-war

 

[Tenks]

I thought it was pretty well accepted on NeoGAF that Nintendo would probably be the first to release a new hardware system due to the limitations the Wii has.

 

[otake]

is nintendo even part of this war anymore?

 

[Doodlebug]

GAF better stock up on popcorn.

 

[Threi]

I thought it was pretty well accepted on NeoGAF that Nintendo would probably be the first to release a new hardware system due to the limitations the Wii has.

Not exactly. There is the argument that Nintendo has no incentive to essentially "kill" the insane momentum of the Wii by releasing a new console. A large number of people feel Nintendo will just ride it out as long as they can.

 

[TheGrayGhost]

I thought it was pretty well accepted on NeoGAF that Nintendo would probably be the first to release a new hardware system due to the limitations the Wii has.

I don't understand how that makes sense.

Obviously, it has been shown that the limitations of either the Wii or the DS are not at all deterrents to their success. Once they stop being successful, a new console will be launched. That makes much more sense to me.

BTW, Malstrom talked earlier about how there is a "civil-war" among the "hardcore."

 

[Tenks]

is nintendo even part of this war anymore?

It sorta reminds me of CivRev. Nintendo has launched the shuttle and Sony/MS are still demanding the Superconductor "or else"

 

[Grecco]

I thought it was pretty well accepted on NeoGAF that Nintendo would probably be the first to release a new hardware system due to the limitations the Wii has.

Yes the leading console and winner of this generation will cut into its profits and release a console first.

Limitations or not. Wii 2 wont be the first console out next gen.

 

[grandjedi6]

Yes I'm sure Nintendo will give up prolonged sales of the Wii in order to jump the gun on next gen.

 

[Deleted member 284]

But he said Nintendo's next home console could arrive before then. "One possible exception to console timing may be Nintendo, which could opt to upgrade the Wii with faster processing power, DVD capability and/or greater storage."

So Nintendo who is making money hand over fist by actual profit and not this revenue bullshit that spin doctors use as a metric, is going to release a new system before the other competitors? Don't these guys get paid a lot of money? Much less, has Nintendo ever released a console before it's competitors?

 

[Aeris130]

Or, maybe they'll use software to drive hardware sales further, instead of the other way around. y'know, like Iwata specifically stated when asked about this very issue.

*Edit: Then again, faster processing power is important. Yeah, I could totally see that.

 

[bigmakstudios]

If they're going to add DVD playback, they should add Blu-ray playback. And 720p/1080i/1080p. And for the love of god, surround sound. Also, they could add "next gen rumble", pointer technology that isn't horribly inconsistent (my cursor is almost constantly skipping/jumping around the screen, no matter how much light is in the room) and improved motion sensing that does more than sense "waggle" to initiate basic, canned animations, and has tilt functions.

 

[Tim the Wiz]

I thought it was pretty well accepted on NeoGAF that Nintendo would probably be the first to release a new hardware system due to the limitations the Wii has.

If so, the GAF collective is more bereft of common sense than I expected.

 

[Tenks]

I fail to see how it would be so surprising if Nintendo released a fully BC HD version of the Wii with enhanced online play, HDD and processing power.

Given the fact that the analysis says it would happen around 2012 I'd expect these parts would be fairly cheap. The price point would most likely not even be effected.

 

[Baron Doggystyle von Woof]

is nintendo even part of this war anymore?

Good question. I think Nintendo doesn`t care about the PS3 and Xbox360, its almost a whole other market.

 

[Raide]

Part of the problem Nintendo will have is convincing all of their millions of customers why they should need to buy another Wii console just for more storage, HDD, DVD playback, online play etc.

While there may be remixed Wii's ala DS Lite, Nintendo really don't have any reason to push out another console any time soon.

 

[Gozan]

I thought it was pretty well accepted on NeoGAF that Nintendo would probably be the first to release a new hardware system due to the limitations the Wii has.

Obviously, it has been shown that the limitations of either the Wii or the DS are not at all deterrents to their success. Once they stop being successful, a new console will be launched. That makes much more sense to me.

You're both wrong; Nintendo will launch a new console when Miyamoto decides he needs a new machine to work on.

 

[Struct09]

Yes I'm sure Nintendo will give up prolonged sales of the Wii in order to jump the gun on next gen.

Exactly. Nintendo might be first into the next generation, but that will only happen if Wii sales have really slowed down before MS and Sony have launched their next platforms. Nintendo is definitely in no rush.

 

[manueldelalas]

I thought it was pretty well accepted on NeoGAF that Nintendo would probably be the first to release a new hardware system due to the limitations the Wii has.

eh no.

First thing there is never a consensus in GAF in any matter.

Second, why would you think that Nintendo, the company that is making by far the most money this generation with it's low cost console and software and that has by far the biggest sales, would want to start another generation?

Iwata has clearly said the contrary in many interviews.

 

[cw_sasuke]

since when does the winning manufacturer try to put the next-console out as first...

 

[VanMardigan]

I will gladly get in line for Wii HD. The lack of horsepower was what has kept me from buying a Wii in the first place.


I can't WAIT to see Zelda, Metroid, and Mario in HD!!!

 

[Deku]

GAF armchair analyst consensus opinions are usually wrong.

A question for those keeping score. When was the last time Lazard was right ? They seem to be parroting Pachter's WiiHD line now.

I believe Nintendo will ride the Wii wave for as long as they can, but it could be interesting if they do cut it short and start a new war.

 

[ThatObviousUser]

I think Nintendo's will be the last to come out. If you have something that works, why fix it? This is also why I think it'll still be a while before the DS 2 comes out.

 

[Deleted member 284]

I fail to see how it would be so surprising if Nintendo released a fully BC HD version of the Wii with enhanced online play, HDD and processing power.

Given the fact that the analysis says it would happen around 2012 I'd expect these parts would be fairly cheap. The price point would most likely not even be effected.

The analysis is deserving of a Captain_Obvious.gif. Really, Nintendo will release a new console six years after the Wii? Shocking. The idiotic part is when the anal cyst suggests that Nintendo is going to release it's follow up to the Wii before the competitors release their consoles.

Edit: I am not attacking Tenks, but rather Lazard Capital

 

[otake]

Good question. I think Nintendo doesn`t care about the PS3 and Xbox360, its almost a whole other market.

their next console will have 3 gamecubes taped together!

 

[Log4Girlz]

Nintendo will not be first, not by a long shot. They have always released their console when they are good and ready, and the wii is too hot right now and for the forseeable future to a. kill off its momentum and b. annoy its fan-base by releasing a successor too quickly. They may release new skus, like a dvd playing unit, but a true successor isn't in the cards for a good long while.

I speculate the successor will at the very best match this generation in power perhaps with less ram...and still be number 1 in the next generation.

 

[Sol..]

.....and there will be blood


bitter tear, sandy vagina, and butthurt tasting blood.

 

[Deku]

their next console will have 3 gamecubes taped together!

There is a tape shortage as Sony had bought them all up for the PS4.

 

[bud]

iwata: (laugs)

 

[Hero]

Why the fuck would any logical person think this?

Sony wants the PS3 to stick around as long as possible to recoup the losses, Microsoft is actually beginning to make money off the Xbox brand, and Nintendo is laughing it all the way to the bank. Where the hell is the incentive for Nintendo to kill the Wii prematurely just so they can get a more powerful system out? Even if we were to humor this thought, why would Nintendo have revealed Wii Motion Plus at E3 when they could've saved it for Wii 2 if it's coming out in the next three years?

Retarded article.

 

[manueldelalas]

their next console will have 3 gamecubes taped together!

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol lol you are soo funny

Spoiler

...not

 

[Sol..]

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol lol you are soo funny

Spoiler

...not

Spoiler

not

you are funny!

you are

Spoiler

not

funny

you arefunny

Spoiler

not

Yoouuu are funny

Spoiler

not

Spoiler

not

 

[Bigfoot]

Good question. I think Nintendo doesn`t care about the PS3 and Xbox360, its almost a whole other market.

Maybe, but I'm sure Sony and MS care about the Wii. I have a hard time believing that it is a different market. I know lots of people that owned a PS2 or Xbox that have chosen to go with the Wii as their console this gen.

 

[jump_button]

lets see what DS 2 holds maybe that be the real next gen

 

[Azih]

The Wii-Fit Wii-Bowling crowd doesn't even care about better graphics, what incentive is there for Nintendo to upgrade?

 

[ThatObviousUser]

I will gladly get in line for Wii HD. The lack of horsepower was what has kept me from buying a Wii in the first place.


I can't WAIT to see Zelda, Metroid, and Mario in HD!!!

Ugh, pathetic. Simply pathetic.

 

[morningbus]

is nintendo even part of this war anymore?

In the sense that the alien observers watching over the planet during World War 2 were part of the war, yes.

 

[Jokeropia]

pointer technology that isn't horribly inconsistent (my cursor is almost constantly skipping/jumping around the screen, no matter how much light is in the room

You're doing it wrong.

 

[Log4Girlz]

The Wii-Fit Wii-Bowling crowd doesn't even care about better graphics, what incentive is there for Nintendo to upgrade?

Old people love to upgrade, look at the IPOD business model.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I fail to see how it would be so surprising if Nintendo released a fully BC HD version of the Wii with enhanced online play, HDD and processing power.

Given the fact that the analysis says it would happen around 2012 I'd expect these parts would be fairly cheap. The price point would most likely not even be effected.

No, the analyst suggests Nintendo may force it before 2011.

I think Nintendo's will be the last to come out. If you have something that works, why fix it?

There is some advantage to cementing yourself as first place again before the competition can hit the ground, but certainly there's no rush for them to pull an Xbox.

 

[Kai Dracon]

Ugh, pathetic. Simply pathetic.

Some people can't see 60fps.

Some people can't see Fun Shaders.

It takes all kinds!

 

[farnham]

why would they

they can live on the wii and compete with the next xbox or playstation as long as sony or ms will follow the same formular (next gen = better graphix)

 

[ThatObviousUser]

iwata: (laugs)

iwata [playing Brawl]: (lags)

 

[SabinFigaro]

"One possible exception to console timing may be Nintendo, which could opt to upgrade the Wii with faster processing power, DVD capability and/or greater storage."

I would appreciate an upgraded Wii that is not meant to be a successor. Adding DVD playback and expanded storage is the next logical step, especially since MS and Sony have been playing around with storage space for a while now.

 

[Ranger X]

Nintendo will fuck up my "generations" and people will get used to buy hardware more often.

The videogame industry will become a clusterfuck of hardware upgrading, swaping, etc just like cellphones, portables, players and PC hardware.

And i don't like this shit. Extreme consumerism.

 

[ThatObviousUser]

I would appreciate an upgraded Wii that is not meant to be a successor. Adding DVD playback and expanded storage is the next logical step, especially since MS and Sony have been playing around with storage space for a while now.

Nintendo planned to do a Japan-only DVD Wii before the Wii even launched, but well, time makes fools of us all...

In fact, I expect what you said + more colors in place of another fully-new console. WiiHD? No. WiiHDD? Very possible.

Basically, what I think they should do is just concatenate all the technology they can for the Wii platform. As in, instead of price drops or more colors, instead they beef up the internal storage, add DVD playback, cram MotionPlus into the included controllers, etc. They don't have to launch Wii 2 for a long, long time, but in the meantime, they can make do with WiiPlus.

 

[evilromero]

It makes absolutely no sense that Nintendo would add DVD capabilities when the format will be close to dead by 2012. People are increasingly watching movies online, recording via DVR or just watching on demand. More storage capacity seems like an obvious guess but 2011 is not happening. Nintendo has never been first to the market.

 

[Gaborn]

is nintendo even part of this war anymore?

Ask the developers that have to decide how to allocate their resources.

 

[dialmydrive]

Wait, this is a little misleading. Colin Sebastian says the next "hardware refresh" could come from Nintendo before 2011/2012 but by hardware refresh, I assume he's talking about next-gen (not current gen like PS3, 360 and Wii). He said, "One possible exception to console timing may be Nintendo, which could opt to upgrade the Wii with faster processing power, DVD capability and/or greater storage."

Is this an entirely new system or a simple, new Wii SKU similar to what we're always seeing from 360 and PS3? Where's this analysis supposed to take us? I'm confused. What's the big deal?

"While Sony is clearly not standing still, and is demonstrating some better momentum in North America, we do not believe the PS3 is likely to gain significant market share until hardware prices reach mass market levels"

No shit?

 

[Kai Dracon]

Thinking about it a bit more, the one thing I think Nintendo will try to avoid with Wii 2/II (Wii~ii! ..?) is a built-in HDD. It's just not like Nintendo to install another finicky and delicate piece of breakable equipment into their hardware. They do like their stuff to be kid-proof and there's nothing wrong with that, for their wide-ranging market demographic.

I wouldn't be surprised if Wii~ii! comes close to PS3 and Xbox 360 power from this gen, but suspect Nintendo will intentionally aim just a touch below that level, to go with the cheapest and most mass-produce-able parts possible. I kinda predict they would go with another upgraded version of the current CPU / chipset, and a lot more ram; something like a 1.8 or 2.4 ghz CPU, maybe a dual core version, and 256 megs of ram. Wouldn't surprise me if they stayed a 720p for "HD readiness" and were happy with that.

On the other hand, I would predict that they'll have /external/ USB HDD storage support out of the box, as I would think Wii~ii! will be designed with a much better version of the Wii Shop and digital content download system in place. Remember, Nintendo is always very cautious when they introduce a shiny new feature but on their next iteration tend to design a version of that feature engineered 10x better.