lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Well sure, market realities would need to favor Wii U obviously (as they did 360).
Good thing Nintendo has a track record of doing well everywhere.
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Any reason why the WiiU *won't* dominate Japan?
- Thread starter OldJadedGamer
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Good thing Nintendo has a track record of doing well everywhere.
Sony makes a "Return of the King"-like comeback? It could happen you know.
It depends on what Nintendo will release and if Japan is interested. Nintendo franchises are still popular with 3D Land and MK 7 selling well on 3DS. Same goes for NSMB 2. Fire Emblem became more popular this time around.
The third parties though... they're hard to predict. First months of 2013 will be interesting regarding Japanese support.
It depends on what Nintendo will release and if Japan is interested. Nintendo franchises are still popular with 3D Land and MK 7 selling well on 3DS. Same goes for NSMB 2. Fire Emblem became more popular this time around.
The third parties though... they're hard to predict. First months of 2013 will be interesting regarding Japanese support.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
I think the WiiU will only take Japan but will fail to gain favor with big third party games and next gen engines. I mean there isn't a new GTA for WiiU. The majority of Japanese developers will love WiU.
metalslimer
Member
The majority of JPN developers will love and continue to love 3DS/smartphones. The ones that don't are interested in the west and if the western support goes (and its looking like it will) to Durango than those 3rd parties will focus on Durango. If we look at the big Japanese 3rd parties who do you think will love it? Square Enix? Capcom? Namco? Sega would be a good option if they weren't pretty much dead at retail. Atlus will continue to make handheld titles although I can see Persona 5 being a Wii U game. Anything smaller than that and I would bet they will keep making 3DS titles.
Clear
CliffyB's Cock Holster
Schuelma said:
As I pointed out, Nintendo's evergreen franchises will always sell. Unfortunately the same can't be said for third-party software on their console platforms.
This is why although MS is not actually competitive in Japan, their presence in the field matters - third parties will gravitate towards them and Sony due to them historically being more profitable platforms for their product. Their lack of support undermines Nintendo's efforts internationally and leaves them vulnerable in the long-term.
Principate said:
How can looking at the same 3 principal competitors performance over a 10-12 year period be flawed compared to using a smaller, cherry-picked sample? Hell, between Schuelma's insistence that Wii's collapsing sales over the last 2 years are irrelevent, it seems that the only thing that apparently matters are the heyday of Wii when Wii-Sports/Fit were super hot.
I don't think I'm the one being disingenuous here.
I'd also point out that WiiU is (highly unusually for Nintendo) being sold at a loss from day #1, which may adversely impact their ability to cut costs to compete against the true next gen offerings from Sony and MS when they hit the market in the next 12-18 months. Consider where 3DS might be now would they have not been able to slash its price down when sales flattened 6 months in.
Captain Smoker
Member
Doctor Decimate
Member
i don't think you can say the lack of a GTA announcement for the Wii U means much considering it hasn't been announced for the PC either.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
This is precisely why Nintendo's targeted 3rd party success as one of their chief goals. At this point they're also the only 1st party sinking major investment into the Japanese development community. Couple that with them coming from a relative immediate record of strength in consoles (Wii did well on the whole, and MUCH better than expected which is the inverse of what PS3 managed) plus their handheld domination of the market overall and they're in arguably the best position to leverage 3rd party support in the region. PS2 was a long time ago, it may have mattered when Sony came calling for PSP/PS3 support, but it clearly didn't with Vita and that casts a long shadow over PS4.
And Nintendo wasn't the only one banking on Wii. Capcom, Sega, Namco Bandai and Square Enix all had notable success stories on the platform. As did smaller publishers like Marvelous, Hudson or Level-5, you can probably expect a lot of those Wii successes (Taiko, DQ, MH, Sonic, IE Strikers, Harvest Moon, Deca Sports, etc) to continue on Wii U. Fewer major games bombed on Wii than they did the HD twins as well, 3rd parties betting the farm on the latter led to heavier results in both directions. Bigger profits and bigger losses too.
Gamecube was also sold for a loss at launch, and Wii in fact had a pretty slim profit margin initially. It really isn't that unusual for Nintendo consoles, and I believe it was only confirmed for the basic model at that so it's not likely a significant loss. PS4 and Durango are going to have to eat much larger losses if they want to get to competitive pricing based on what we know of each.
Sentenza
Member
It's a Nintendo console. In Japan.
They could put a turd in a box, slap a Mario/Zelda sticker on it and it would probably sell more than the competitors.
evilromero
Member
People said the same thing about the GameCube. "Wait until Mario comes out." "Wait until Zelda comes out." Never happened.
Yep. It's not guaranteed success just because Nintendo released it as the GameCube shows. Mind you Nintendo has far more mindshare now than they had then so I expect them to dominated regardless
Clear
CliffyB's Cock Holster
The big thing for me is that I simply don't see the launch situation with WiiU as being in the least bit comparable to that for Wii.
For a start off, Wii benefitted from having a massive price-point advantage compared to PS3 - to the extent that it made it a more logical successor to PS2 than Sony's own hardware was. WiiU is going to be the most expensive platform in its class, and its competitors are in a far better position to drop their prices to exploit this advantage should the need arise.
Wii-Sports and later Wii-Fit, were the "it" products that really elevated the platform. Maybe there's stuff Nintendo have lined up for WiiU that'll do the same job, but honestly I dont see it. Simply repeating the formula isn't a sure thing either, as demonstrated by both MS and Sony attempting their own attempts at the formula with mixed results.
Mario and the rest of the Nintendo's heavy-hitting franchises were around on and before both GameCube and N64, that these brands have power is not under dispute, what is however is the assumption that these franchises have enough impact to push Nintendo back to the top by themselves when the evidence of the two preceding generations demonstrates that they don't.
A cornerstone of Nintendo's approach with Wii was to offer a radically different product to its competitors, this is less true of WiiU where as mentioned elsewhere they are attempting to refocus back -at least in part- on the core gamer market. Sony tried to appeal to everyone with PS3 and it backfired badly as they were pincered by MS' emphasis on the hardcore, and Nintendo's assault on the mainstream. Its this more generalist approach which marks it out as being more in tune with GCN/N64 than Wii.
Lastly, with the main driving force on Nintendo platforms being Nintendo software, lets not forget to factor in the addition time/cost/risk of this being their first foray into HD-class development. Their ability to support the platform is going to be more stretched than it was on the Wii, especially given their need to maintain 3DS concurrently. The likelihood is that their own titles are going to be fewer and further between than they were last time, which may prove problmetic given both Sony and MS are prepping new platforms for launch in the near future.
For a start off, Wii benefitted from having a massive price-point advantage compared to PS3 - to the extent that it made it a more logical successor to PS2 than Sony's own hardware was. WiiU is going to be the most expensive platform in its class, and its competitors are in a far better position to drop their prices to exploit this advantage should the need arise.
Wii-Sports and later Wii-Fit, were the "it" products that really elevated the platform. Maybe there's stuff Nintendo have lined up for WiiU that'll do the same job, but honestly I dont see it. Simply repeating the formula isn't a sure thing either, as demonstrated by both MS and Sony attempting their own attempts at the formula with mixed results.
Mario and the rest of the Nintendo's heavy-hitting franchises were around on and before both GameCube and N64, that these brands have power is not under dispute, what is however is the assumption that these franchises have enough impact to push Nintendo back to the top by themselves when the evidence of the two preceding generations demonstrates that they don't.
A cornerstone of Nintendo's approach with Wii was to offer a radically different product to its competitors, this is less true of WiiU where as mentioned elsewhere they are attempting to refocus back -at least in part- on the core gamer market. Sony tried to appeal to everyone with PS3 and it backfired badly as they were pincered by MS' emphasis on the hardcore, and Nintendo's assault on the mainstream. Its this more generalist approach which marks it out as being more in tune with GCN/N64 than Wii.
Lastly, with the main driving force on Nintendo platforms being Nintendo software, lets not forget to factor in the addition time/cost/risk of this being their first foray into HD-class development. Their ability to support the platform is going to be more stretched than it was on the Wii, especially given their need to maintain 3DS concurrently. The likelihood is that their own titles are going to be fewer and further between than they were last time, which may prove problmetic given both Sony and MS are prepping new platforms for launch in the near future.
Sigh. You haven't really responded to my last few points, but I will give this one more try:
This is all of course speculation, but in my opinion the best way to try and predict what will happen this generation is to look at what company sold the most software last generation. Seems the most empirical way to do this to me. Of course it isn't foolproof, but software from the last 5-6 years seems vastly more relevant than software from the N64 era.
-9/10 and 16/20 of the best selling console games last generation were on the Wii. That isn't speculation or guesswork, that is just fact.
-The top selling game on that list, NSMB Wii, is getting a Wii U sequel at launch. That is the rough equivalent of PS4 launching with 2 Final Fantasy XIII's at launch.
-The #3 game on the list, Wii Fit, is getting a sequel during Wii U's launch window.
-Wii U is launching at a pretty competitive price in Japan- certainly nothing like PS3.
-Wii U is launching at least a year ahead of PS4.
Now, of course anything can happen, as Wii proved. But it is a fact that Nintendo has higher selling IP's at its disposal and is already deploying them before PS4 even gets on the ground. I see no real way Nintendo does not have a significant advantage by this time next year when PS4 launches. PS4 will be launching a year later, most likely at a higher price, and with no way of combating Nintendo's software unless Sony has FF15 ready.
DragonSworne
Banned
Fanboyism at both the consumer and corporate level.
metalslimer
Member
People comparing Nintendo now to the Gamecube days really don't understand how much Nintendo's franchises have exploded since those days. The gamecube didn't fail because of Nintendo's software (which sold insane numbers for that hardware). It failed because the PS2 was unstoppable which the PS4 nor any console will ever repeat. Sony doesn't have the mindshare or influence they had to even come close to that which is why the Wii U is nothing like the Gamecube, So the only chance it even sells somewhere close would be the complete collapse of the console market in Japan
Principate
Saint Titanfall
The issue is considering inflation the difference in price between the wii u and wii isn't that large and unless PS4 pulls a wii (or takes massive losses), there's more likely than not going to be a large price difference between the two. The wii U is already near enough in price to the PS3 and that's 7 years old. I honestly don't see Sony launching anywhere near that price in Japan.
It's the main reason why i don't see the PS4 outselling considering, how Nintendo is in a far better position in Japan with the wii u than it was in the begining with the wii.
m.i.s.
Banned
The only outlier that could conceivably change market realities in Japan is if J-RPG's become the de-facto format of choice on Wii U. That just isn't going to happen for a number of reasons.
Ergo, the decline of the console market in Japan.
Clear
CliffyB's Cock Holster
schuelma said:
Read my post that precedes your last, I think that should explain everything.
schuelma said:
This is exactly my point! Yet the whole thesis of this thread is that its a fait accompli that WiiU will "dominate"!
I don't have any axe to grind against Nintendo, and I honestly want/expect it to do well. However I'm not convinced its going to be a massive smash like Wii for the reasons I've outlined.
EDIT: @Principate
I don't have a clue about the fate of the PS4/Orbis at this point. There's simply not enough information to make a reasoned argument. Without tech-specs, release date and price, launch line-up etc. Its a completely unknown quantity, so I'm entirely focussed on WiiU vs existing competition for the purposes of this discussion.
Ok. I completely disagree with your conclusion, but I have the gist of your argument.
What I haven't seen from you is any acknowledgement of how Sony has fallen since the PS1/PS2 hey days. You seem to be expecting a reversion back to form from Sony, but I see no basis for concluding that.
The GamePad is Nintendo's best handheld (as long as you limit your play sessions at home). And the way they have 3DS apps to complement the console games (a la DQ X) or cross play games (MH) makes me believe Wii U will benefit a lot from this Nintendo handhelds phenomenon.
MagiusNecros
Gilgamesh Fan Annoyance
Natural disasters.
Even if WiiU "dominates" I could see this being a generation where home consoles struggle (maybe even fail to) break 10M in Japan. Wii had amazing momentum in its first year or two, but ended up selling a little over half of what the PS2 sold in Japan despite breaking records in 2007. PS3 sold alright, but only in relation to the "lol, sub-Gamecube" sales of its early years. I don't really see the situation improving this coming gen, and think that the days of lead home consoles selling 18-23M are probably over.
Sony is in a really bad shape, and its not only the gaming division. Their whole worldwide operation is in bad shape for years now. I don't see them miraculously recovering to tell the truth. I think Japan is a lock for Nintendo, hence they do not fuck up and keep releasing interesting software that will only be possible on the Wii U.
The third party situation is different, though. Japanese third parties are probably not better off only investing in Nintendo. Its too risky. Microsoft will most likely do a good job with the Xbox succesor in the US. Japanese third parties might choose to invest more heavily in Sony and Microsoft platforms because they will be comparible in horsepower. I think the best strategy for them would be to treat the next Xbox and Sony platforms the same (big name franchises developed for both Xbox and PS brands), and develop more unique and exclusive software for Wii U. Not necesarily very high budget, but something that explores new frontiers.
The third party situation is different, though. Japanese third parties are probably not better off only investing in Nintendo. Its too risky. Microsoft will most likely do a good job with the Xbox succesor in the US. Japanese third parties might choose to invest more heavily in Sony and Microsoft platforms because they will be comparible in horsepower. I think the best strategy for them would be to treat the next Xbox and Sony platforms the same (big name franchises developed for both Xbox and PS brands), and develop more unique and exclusive software for Wii U. Not necesarily very high budget, but something that explores new frontiers.
There is no other alternative. Any strategy that relies on once again forgoing developing for a Nintendo platform in Japan is doomed to fail.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
I'd argue the best bet would be to focus on Wii U to try and centralize audiences around the console with the greatest domestic potential and then port up to PS4/Durango for games with more western appeal. Simply repeating the Wii vs PS360 dynamic (which is essentially what you're saying here) is a recipe for disaster with another generational jump in resource demands.
In the short term I think PS3/Wii U multiplatform development also makes a lot of sense for the transitional period, adding in 360 ports for games going west.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
PC has gotten all past GTA games. The last GTA game Rockstar made for a Nintendo system totally flopped even though it was a critical success.
If the new MS had a huge lack of Japanese game especially stuff like JRPG's I really don't see that altering the success of the machine in the West.
CadetMahoney
Member
Yea, the wii-u will have a big year lead too.
Looking at the speculated specs and considering Sony has not as much room to take risks on huge losses out the gate it doesn't look like the PS4 will be modestly priced. They're not coming off a PS2-esque run next gen, plus the current financial troubles they're in.
The only scenario I can envision involves the collapse of the console market... so this.
I would actually extend the title question to every region. While the outcome in other places is less certain, the current situation is still very favorable to Nintendo.
1) The year head start is more important than most think. Historically, a head start allowed the DC to exist, the PS2 to become a juggernaut, the 360 to keep its head up through a rough first year, and the 3DS to correct it price. Using the most recent fiscal year results from each company, if the next-gen consoles maintained those sales, it would take the other systems almost another 2 years to catch up. It isn't just the bigger userbase, it's the perception of a more staple environment, especially when compared to the other two who will have their own struggles and be going head-to-head.
2) The WiiU's launch line-up is the most mainstream launch the industry has seen. The Wii's launch was defined as either too casual or too niche. Right or not, that's the lesson the industry took from it and that's how they treated the system. Anyone complaining about the WiiU's launch line-up is just ignorant. The system will have nearly double the titles of any worldwide launch, with representation from almost every major franchise relevant in each territory and reaching a broad spectrum of gamers. It will be difficult to pigeon hole the system the same as the Wii when its stop selling games include BO2, ZombiU, AC3, and MH3U off the bat.
3) The Wii lost a lot of potential releases because the system was perceived to not be power enough to make a port profitable. I still expect to hear that excuse next-gen, but not nearly as prevalent. That's means the barrier between the WiiU and the other console won't be as dense. The industry won't as divided. There won't be a PS360, HD Twins... whatever you call it where Wii was the odd-man-out, leper of the industry.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
What MS/Sony has on Nintendo big time is social and online features along with the push for tech with adding in the PC market. Third parties who want those will ignore the WiiU as nothing more than a downport machine. We are less than 2 weeks away from the WiiU launch and we still don't have all the details of Nintendo's online nor have we seen a game working using the network.
In Japan, social and online isn't that important and the PC market there is basically dead so that is why I feel Japanese developers will flock to it and Western developers will shun it when it comes to creating their next gen engines.
H_Prestige
Banned
Yeah, hype for the Wii U is at unprecedented levels /sarcasm
I don't buy the mindshare argument. Yeah, they had tickle me elmo levels of mindshare for a few years but that's long gone. Are they irrelevant like in the GC days? No. But I don't see their mindshare being anything extraordinary right now, not enough to just dominate as if they were launching the ps2.
LiveFromKyoto
Member
Every time I question my Wii U preorder, this thread pops back up and reminds me why I need it. This system is going to be swimming in quirky Japanese gems.
still really looking forward to visual craziness with PS4 though.
It isn't about mindshare, it is about cold hard numbers. Nintendo has a ton of great selling titles at its disposal in Japan and are unleashing them early.
It isn't that complicated.
There is a GTA for WiiU ... a LEGO Gta, but still xD
Chuck Norris
Banned
Maybe not the biggest franchises n Japan, but they are most certainly the biggest franchises FROM Japan
I'm curious, what's the flip side of the argument.
What can Sony bring to the table.. reasonably right now to help catapult the PS4 early on in Japan?
I mean next year already sees 2 new Metal Gear games, and I think 2 more Final Fantasy (w/ Lightning Returns and XIV finally) so what can they have ready for PS4 launch.. that would be exclusive and big?
What can Sony bring to the table.. reasonably right now to help catapult the PS4 early on in Japan?
I mean next year already sees 2 new Metal Gear games, and I think 2 more Final Fantasy (w/ Lightning Returns and XIV finally) so what can they have ready for PS4 launch.. that would be exclusive and big?
Graphics Horse
Member
Gran Turismo 6 Prologue could be biggish.
I suppose if they're showing off FFXV for PS4 at the reveal it could work as a selling point even if not imminent. (Depending on Xbox 720's success in Japan, hoho.)
I'm not going to mention the Last Guardian.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
Gran Turismo doesn't have the selling power it once did in Japan.
CartridgeBlower
Member
I love how not only is the Wii U not even out, the PS4 and Next Xbox haven't even been ANNOUNCED -- yet we are already declaring a winner. Solid.
metalslimer
Member
In Japan it would take the equivalent of 599 for Nintendo to lose this console race. I may take issue with the word dominate because 12 million vs 6 million isn't what I consider domination, but Nintendo hasn't seemed to make any big mistake with Wii U for Japan. They have NSMBU, a DQX beta, and MH all at launch. Their franchises are as popular as ever. Sony's franchises have decline severely including one of their biggest in Gran Turismo. And MS is a non factor. Japan isn't really even that interesting imo. Europe i think will be the most interesting because we could be seeing a 3 way split that favors no one. US I think will go to MS
It would be very, very, very hard for Nintendo to not dominate the console market in Japan this upcoming generation. Right now they are holding all the cards there.
Launching at least a year earlier.
Launching with a NSMB game.
Launching with a MH game. People in this thread seem to dismiss this, but it should easily reach half a million LTD number and pretty much guarantees the next MH console game will be on the system.
Launching with DQX HD. Much like MH, a port but what is important here is the message "Buy a Wii U if you want to play DQ games."
Sony is in the worst financial position they have ever been and cannot even afford to take the proper steps to save the Vita. I do not expect them to have suddenly learned from their mistakes with PSP/PS3/Vita to make PS4 a success. However, it is possible if they catch lightning in a bottle like the Wii did, but this is very low.
Microsoft is entirely irrelevant in Japan.
Japanese third parties overall struggled with the sudden jump to HD this past generation. While some of them are laying the groundwork with their next gen engines, I feel that the majority of them will be unable to develop or afford these. It seems entirely logical and probable that third parties will stick to releasing PS3 games and porting them up to Wii U.
I feel that the more important question is how relevant consoles are going to be in Japan. Handhelds are obviously their default preference but will all the Wii owners jump in for a Wii U? I think that the casuals that bought into it for Wii Sports/Play/Fit/etc will be hard pressed immediately and face some difficulty in selling at a similar rate to the Wii.
I'm kind of curious how you think Wii didn't dominate Japan this generation. Please expand upon this.
Launching at least a year earlier.
Launching with a NSMB game.
Launching with a MH game. People in this thread seem to dismiss this, but it should easily reach half a million LTD number and pretty much guarantees the next MH console game will be on the system.
Launching with DQX HD. Much like MH, a port but what is important here is the message "Buy a Wii U if you want to play DQ games."
Sony is in the worst financial position they have ever been and cannot even afford to take the proper steps to save the Vita. I do not expect them to have suddenly learned from their mistakes with PSP/PS3/Vita to make PS4 a success. However, it is possible if they catch lightning in a bottle like the Wii did, but this is very low.
Microsoft is entirely irrelevant in Japan.
Japanese third parties overall struggled with the sudden jump to HD this past generation. While some of them are laying the groundwork with their next gen engines, I feel that the majority of them will be unable to develop or afford these. It seems entirely logical and probable that third parties will stick to releasing PS3 games and porting them up to Wii U.
I feel that the more important question is how relevant consoles are going to be in Japan. Handhelds are obviously their default preference but will all the Wii owners jump in for a Wii U? I think that the casuals that bought into it for Wii Sports/Play/Fit/etc will be hard pressed immediately and face some difficulty in selling at a similar rate to the Wii.
I'm kind of curious how you think Wii didn't dominate Japan this generation. Please expand upon this.
BishopLamont
Banned
All he sees is the PS3 selling better than the Wii late in the cycle of the generation. Never mind the first few years or the software thats selling even now.
Clear
CliffyB's Cock Holster
BishopLamont said:
But that's a valid observation, especially given the two platforms launched pretty much concurrently. PS3 has been gaining ground on Wii since 2010, and given that its got a solid slate of titles lined up for the next 12 months is likely to continue to do so into 2013 and perhaps beyond. The gap is likely to end up at less than 2million units by the time the platforms are discontinued.
PS3 software is also selling strongly as ever in the region, and as demonstrated by PSP can continue to do so long after the hardware's glory days are over.
I've no doubt at this point that Nintendo's supremacy in the handheld market is going to continue, but simply looking at the numbers for the console sales its obvious to me that all it will take is for WiiU to underperform slightly, and PS4/Orbis to mildly exceed expectations and the whole situation could be reversed.
SquiddyCracker
Banned
I think the Wii U's competitors will mainly be current gen consoles such as the Wii and PS3 - along with portables such as DS, 3DS, and PSP (PSV? Nope).
PS4 will probably be too big for the average Japanese household, and substantially more expensive (and we all know how an Xbox with NA-focus such as cable support will fare).
PS4 will probably be too big for the average Japanese household, and substantially more expensive (and we all know how an Xbox with NA-focus such as cable support will fare).
thehypocrite
Member
The only way Wii U dominates is if Nintendo kills the 3DS. I feel the Wii U is more disruptive to handheld devices than consoles, however in Japan the 3DS already fills that space, is cheaper and has more software than the Wii U, thus it will cripple it.
In the west I think that Nintendo strategy is going to backfire as the features that are the selling point of the Wii U are being served better by the tablets, the competition in that arena is extremely fierce (Apple/Google/Msft/Amazon) Nintendo is banking too heavily on the gamepad neglecting core gaming features. Not feeling this strategy at all by Nintendo.
In the west I think that Nintendo strategy is going to backfire as the features that are the selling point of the Wii U are being served better by the tablets, the competition in that arena is extremely fierce (Apple/Google/Msft/Amazon) Nintendo is banking too heavily on the gamepad neglecting core gaming features. Not feeling this strategy at all by Nintendo.
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