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Ars Technica: Penello's XB1 Numbers, Ars "Sniff Test" Analysis

sangreal

Member
Add to that, Microsoft also claimed that it expected 1 billion (yes 1 billion) console sales (assuming across PS4, Wii U and XO) this generation. Such figures are an absolute pipe dream without a console that could function offline as well as online. To be fair, they're an absolute pipe dream no matter what.

They said that in 2005 as well

In 2013, statistically 61% of the world is not connected to or not using the internet.

I would wager a large amount of that 61% would not be in the position to buy a $500 console with $60 games anyway
 

eastmen

Banned
This is such a pretentious post. Firstly, stop acting like the world is only made up of developed nations. There are billions of people out there in territories that don't have such infrastructure, or that simply don't have access to online (servicemen, army, navy etc).

Secondly, designing a console that can't function with both groups in mind is just plain bad design. You can have all the functionality you originally wanted for an online only console, whilst also providing the same original functionality for people that don't, instead of just limiting or cutting off their gaming options altogether. That's not to say any of the functionality Microsoft was offering in order to promote an always online console was even particularly forward thinking, simply put, it wasn't. Family sharing turned out to be little more than a demoing scheme, and that was the number one key selling point for the horrible policy. The best way for Microsoft to prove otherwise is to simply bring back the game sharing policy for digitally sold games. There's simply no reason why they can't have it in with the same restrictions.

Add to that, Microsoft also claimed that it expected 1 billion (yes 1 billion) console sales (assuming across PS4, Wii U and XO) this generation. Such figures are an absolute pipe dream without a console that could function offline as well as online. To be fair, they're an absolute pipe dream no matter what.



In 2013, statistically 61% of the world is not connected to or not using the internet.
And what percentage of the world bought a video game console last generation ? People here bring up silly information. To the other poster talking about india. Ehat do I care if one million people have ps2 systens and share games with each other. That is such a small market its not even on anyones radar. Iff ps2 is the perfered console of choice why would they sudde ly go out and buy a 500 usd console .
 

eastmen

Banned
Just to clarify, because America = world here so often and Microsoft's main market is the US, I should point out 30% of Americans don't have Broadband.

http://www.wired.com/opinion/2013/0...-divide-and-mobile-paradox-for-u-s-broadband/

That's from about 2 weeks ago.

But you dobt need broad band. An internet check wouldd not require it. Aside from that numbers would only go up during the life of the systen and of course more and more people will have hot spot capable devices.
 
But you dobt need broad band. An internet check wouldd not require it. Aside from that numbers would only go up during the life of the systen and of course more and more people will have hot spot capable devices.
Why do we need our consoles to phone home? Why are you okay with this?
 

JaggedSac

Member
Why do we need our consoles to phone home? Why are you okay with this?

Because of their desire to have installed disc based games act the same as digital downloads. This would allow for people to fast swap games regardless of purchase method, and also still be able to sell your disc based games at authorized retailers. This would have been the ideal situation for me, because, honestly, I could give a rats ass about other people's wants and needs. I buy games and sell them to Gamestop which would have been unaffected by their policies. So after the reversal, my capabilities with the device have been lessened.
 
Because of their desire to have installed disc based games act the same as digital downloads. This would allow for people to fast swap games regardless of purchase method, and also still be able to sell your disc based games at authorized retailers. This would have been the ideal situation for me, because, honestly, I could give a rats ass about other people's wants and needs. I buy games and sell them to Gamestop which would have been unaffected by their policies. So after the reversal, my capabilities with the device have been lessened.
Why do they need to be the same?
What is preventing you from just downloading the game to continue your fast swapping?
Why does it have to be authorized retailers?
 

JaggedSac

Member
Why do they need to be the same?
What is preventing you from just downloading the game to continue your fast swapping?
Why does it have to be authorized retailers?

1. Anything else makes things even more convoluted than they were.

2. I lose the ability to resale.

3. Because they have to provide point of sale systems that remove the game from a person's account when they sell it.
 

avaya

Member
How ignorant are these MS execs if they think they can run the same HD-DVD style fud-campaign at NeoGAF like they did at AVS forums? Pointless question since these were the same clowns behind HD-DVD.

The same FUD strategy will not fly here as it did there back then primarily due to the user base and the moderation of this forum compared to AVS who were totally unprepared for the FUD and astroturfing campaign that occurred with HD-DVD.

It's funny seeing Penello post here, the only people agreeing with him were already inclined to do so, others are finally seeing the thin coat of PR wash off from his posts.

When someone of claimed authority makes a shit post this forum will eviscerate that post and sometimes that individual. Microsoft need an all-new social marketing strategy since the current FUD tactics have little to no chance of succeeding here. They hugely underestimate their audience. They have learned very little.
 

sangreal

Member
Why do they need to be the same?

Competition. Now MS once again has complete control over the pricing of digital copies because you can only get them from XBLM. When digital and physical copies were identical other than distribution, you could get them anywhere
 

REDRZA

Banned
In my estimation, moving forward means gaining more rights and abilities, not losing them. My smartphone and my PC, the two most connected devices ever created, still maintain functionality when they are cut off from the internet. Why wouldn't my console?

Exactly right. Being connected to the Internet obviously offers great experiences and a ton of content. Online multi player, DLC and add ons, digital HD movies and TV, digital music, demos, the whole nine. It's awesome.

However, whether someone chooses not to go online, or can't get online, should never render a $500 piece of hardware and $60 retail games completely useless. That is not progress, that's regression. New products should add onto past and existing experiences, not mandate and restrict experiences, all out of no benefit to the consumer, but pure greed.
 

nib95

Banned
But you dobt need broad band. An internet check wouldd not require it. Aside from that numbers would only go up during the life of the systen and of course more and more people will have hot spot capable devices.

The mental gymnastics some go through to defend Microsoft or it's policies are quite amusing. Mobile tethering is now the defence. Lol.
 

eastmen

Banned
Why do we need our consoles to phone home? Why are you okay with this?
Game sharing

No disc for quick shopping

Ability to download even a physical bought copie onto any console anywhere.


All benfits that I currently enjoy on steam and make for a better playing experiance
 
Game sharing

No disc for quick shopping

Ability to download even a physical bought copie onto any console anywhere.

All benfits that I currently enjoy on steam and make for a better playing experiance
I can game share right now with the current consoles.
You can buy download versions of games still for quick swapping

If you're willing to download anywhere, what do you need physical disc for to begin with? Why not just buy the download version in the first place.
 

nib95

Banned
Game sharing

No disc for quick shopping

Ability to download even a physical bought copie onto any console anywhere.


All benfits that I currently enjoy on steam and make for a better playing experiance

All of the above can still be offered. Just offer both alternatives, one for people who are always connected or want to go full digital, one for those that don't.

On a side note, game sharing was more like game demoing on the Xbox One. Game sharing is still possible on the current consoles. Digital and physical. Also, you can still download digital games for quick shopping. The idea is to make digital seem more appealing and better value for money so that people move away from physical of their own choice, not to gimp the latter and force people to go digital. That's an awful policy and just bad business.
 

REDRZA

Banned
Game sharing

No disc for quick shopping

Ability to download even a physical bought copie onto any console anywhere.


All benfits that I currently enjoy on steam and make for a better playing experiance

And why can't MS still offer digitally purchased games for digital sharing? What's stopping them? This has nothing to do with retail or physical.

If you buy digital, you never have to swap discs.

If you buy digital, you still can download on other consoles.

Why is it that I'm all for digital yet I don't want to kill physical? Why are you and MS trying effectively reap the benefits of physical yet kill it too?

Let digital be digital, let physical be physical.
 
Exactly right. Being connected to the Internet obviously offers great experiences and a ton of content. Online multi player, DLC and add ons, digital HD movies and TV, digital music, demos, the whole nine. It's awesome.

However, whether someone chooses not to go online, or can't get online, should never render a $500 piece of hardware and $60 retail games completely useless. That is not progress, that's regression. New products should add onto past and existing experiences, not mandate and restrict experiences, all out of no benefit to the consumer, but pure greed.

For some people it would be progress, for some people it would be regression. Not every consumer's needs are exactly the same. The benefits for some consumers of the "every game is a digital game, regardless of whether I get it at Best Buy, Amazon, or Gamestop" approach are worth the 24hr check drawback

Obviously though, the "I want to be able to play console games when I'm offline for more 24 hours, and sell it to whoever I want, discs are fine" consumer seems to definitely be a much larger group
 

JaggedSac

Member
I can game share right now with the current consoles.
You can buy download versions of games still for quick swapping

If you're willing to download anywhere, what do you need physical disc for to begin with? Why not just buy the download version in the first place.

Because I like being able to sell shit that I buy. When I can sell a digital copy of a game on a console, I will stop whinging about my lost ability to quick swap with retail purchased games.
 

eastmen

Banned
I can game share right now with the current consoles.
You can buy download versions of games still for quick swapping

If you're willing to download anywhere, what do you need physical disc for to begin with? Why not just buy the download version in the first place.


Can you ? I have close family and friends that live far away. If I wanted to game share it would require long drives or mail. Even withfriends living close we would have to work around scheduals. The game sharing propsed by ms would have been instant with my friends.

Aa for downloading sometimes stores have sales or get exclusive preorder content.

For portal 2 I save $20 at gamestop vs steam. But I was still able to turn it into a dd copy and enjoy all the benfits.
 
Wow somehow hardware discussion of the XBO got back to the original policies and why they were good

Maybe just maybe the majority of consumers don't agree with the benefits of the original XBO?

I don't know but MS seems to think so

Just sayin'
 
Game sharing

No disc for quick shopping

Ability to download even a physical bought copie onto any console anywhere.

All benfits that I currently enjoy on steam and make for a better playing experiance

For someone claiming "move on, online is the future", you sure are clinging to that "i can buy physical" copies argument.
 

nib95

Banned
Can you ? I have close family and friends that live far away. If I wanted to game share it would require long drives or mail. Even withfriends living close we would have to work around scheduals. The game sharing propsed by ms would have been instant with my friends.

Aa for downloading sometimes stores have sales or get exclusive preorder content.

For portal 2 I save $20 at gamestop vs steam. But I was still able to turn it into a dd copy and enjoy all the benfits.

On the PS3 with digital games all you have to do is give your log in details and your friends and family can download the game on a different console a million miles away. They don't even have to stay signed in to play it or whilst it's downloading. On the 360 there's also a method, some sort of licensing transfer, but it's a bit more complex.
 
time to close this. It's devolved into every talking point about how shitty the xbone is again.
not that they aren't justified, just saying it has.
 
I would wager a large amount of that 61% would not be in the position to buy a $500 console with $60 games anyway
Prices on systems and games will come down. But a console that requires an internet connection will (short of a firmware update/180) always require an internet connection.

Because of their desire to have installed disc based games act the same as digital downloads. This would allow for people to fast swap games regardless of purchase method, and also still be able to sell your disc based games at authorized retailers. This would have been the ideal situation for me, because, honestly, I could give a rats ass about other people's wants and needs. I buy games and sell them to Gamestop which would have been unaffected by their policies. So after the reversal, my capabilities with the device have been lessened.
You don't think being, potentially, the sole retail chain (or one of a few anyway) that has the monopoly on game trade ins would have an affect on your trade in values? Or the fact that publishers would be taking a cut of every trade in?

What about the fact that publishers could opt out of this trade in program altogether? Wouldn't that affect you if you bought a game that turned out to be bad, or you were just done with it?
 

Hoo-doo

Banned
It's like you guys never seen eastmen post before.
Debating anything related to Microsoft with him is pretty pointless, he's in deep. :p
 
1. Anything else makes things even more convoluted than they were.

2. I lose the ability to resale.

3. Because they have to provide point of sale systems that remove the game from a person's account when they sell it.

So if everything was already convoluted why continue down this path?

So don't buy the download versions.

How is this not convoluted?

Because it doesn't affect me and the reversal does. Now I have to buy games from xblm instead of amazon to get the features I want

So you were willing to forfeit your ability to resell, lend and trade to anyone you want and also be forced to check in with Microsoft everyday just to buy games from Amazon on the chance they have a sale?

Because I like being able to sell shit that I buy.

Okay, and other people want to be able to sell, lend and trade to anyone. Why exactly would anyone give a rat's ass about your inability to quick swap physical games when the only place you're going to be selling games to is a store that will give you even less money than usual with it being the only one in a handful of stores that Microsoft allows you to sell to.
 
For someone claiming "move on, online is the future", you sure are clinging to that "i can buy physical" copies argument.

It was a great feature and I wish we could opt-in for it. You get the box and in-store bonuses for collecting purposes, save download bandwidth and the game functions as a digital copy (instant game switching, playing the game on any console as long as you're logged in, plus family sharing... though family sharing may have sucked... who knows?). You could even trade in the game if you wanted to and that was pretty big for something that functions as a digital copy.

Of course the real issue was forcing these policies and there aren't many people who agree with MS's original decision to do that.

I realize I'm incredibly off-topic. Sorry.
 

REDRZA

Banned
For some people it would be progress, for some people it would be regression. Not every consumer's needs are exactly the same. The benefits for some consumers of the "every game is a digital game, regardless of whether I get it at Best Buy, Amazon, or Gamestop" approach are worth the 24hr check drawback

Obviously though, the "I want to be able to play console games when I'm offline for more 24 hours, and sell it to whoever I want, discs are fine" consumer seems to definitely be a much larger group

Don't understand the first paragraph. What's the difference right now with physical whether you buy from best buy, GameStop, Walmart or target? Battlefield 4 is battlefield 4 no matter where you buy it from, nor whether its on disc or digital.

Seems to me the issue with the All digital camp is they want digital without having to download the content. They want physical to be installation disks, then be rendered useless.

Every other all digital format doesn't work like that. The IPod and IPad are true all digital devices. Everything is bought and downloaded digitally. MS and its strict DRM fans want their cake and eat it too.

Not like the OPTION isn't there for all digital. Just stop trying to take away the OPTION for physical and offline. Having no options is never progress.
 

46w500

Banned
Every other all digital format doesn't work like that. The IPod and IPad are true all digital devices.... Having no options is never progress.
I just want to point this out. The iOS platform is obscenely successful, is on par to eclipse console gaming in numbers, and makes truck tons of money. Yet everything we consume on these platforms (and Android) is all digital with no option for physical. If these platforms weren't progressive, then why are they wildly successful?
 

JaggedSac

Member
You don't think being, potentially, the sole retail chain (or one of a few anyway) that has the monopoly on game trade ins would have an affect on your trade in values? Or the fact that publishers would be taking a cut of every trade in?

What about the fact that publishers could opt out of this trade in program altogether? Wouldn't that affect you if you bought a game that turned out to be bad, or you were just done with it?

MS would set up any retailer that wanted to accept trade ins with a point of sale system. There would be trade in competition. Publishers taking a cut is a good thing in my personal opinion. If I lose a $1 or $2 on a trade in, so be it.

I would know which publishers were allowing trade ins and would base my purchases accordingly.
 
Seems to me the issue with the All digital camp is they want digital without having to download the content. They want physical to be installation disks, then be rendered useless.
For a camp that is all about "the future", "internet", "downloads" "services" and what not, the reliance on physical sure is amusing.
 
It was a great feature and I wish we could opt-in for it. You get the box and in-store bonuses for collecting purposes, save download bandwidth and the game functions as a digital copy (instant game switching, playing the game on any console as long as you're logged in, plus family sharing... though family sharing may have sucked... who knows?). You could even trade in the game if you wanted to and that was pretty big for something that functions as a digital copy.

Of course the real issue was forcing these policies and there aren't many people who agree with MS's original decision to do that.

I realize I'm incredibly off-topic. Sorry.

Real issue was the lack of option entirely for sure

That being said it was a great feature for some

I am a collector and the idea of install discs is the reason I don't collect for PC games

Hell I have the big box for the original Fallout and some of the other older games before DRM became what it is

The idea that an entire generation of xbox games could disappear at the flip of a switch terrified me

The fact that Major Nelson's response to that was we haven't even launched the console yet so no point talking about 10 years from now was the completely wrong response for someone like me

That being said he did say MS would never just flip that switch on the authorizing servers but honestly I wouldn't have touched the original XBO until it's EOL was detailed

If it had been opt-in I could keep playing those games and not have install discs

We'd both have been happy with it most likely my friend

Also apologize for going off topic

I'll be quiet now I promise
 
For a camp that is all about "the future", "internet", "downloads" "services" and what not, the reliance on physical sure is amusing.

The original policies were trying to merge physical and digital benefits into one. It's pretty confusing to explain to most people. That alone should have stopped MS from attempting it. I see the benefits of it, though.
 
I just want to point this out. The iOS platform is obscenely successful, is on par to eclipse console gaming in numbers, and makes truck tons of money. Yet everything we consume on these platforms (and Android) is all digital with no option for physical. If these platforms weren't progressive, then why are they wildly successful?
Because the games are incredibly cheap.

Do you think Microsoft and retailers are going to go at it for the consumer and sell cheap games when Microsoft sets the prices for new and used? Cause I kind of doubt it
 

JaggedSac

Member
So if everything was already convoluted why continue down this path?

So don't buy the download versions.

How is this not convoluted?

Because it was beneficial to me and I lost nothing from my current 360 use cases.

Then I lose quick swapping.

Never said it wasn't.

Okay, and other people want to be able to sell, lend and trade to anyone. Why exactly would anyone give a rat's ass about your inability to quick swap physical games when the only place you're going to be selling games to is a store that will give you even less money than usual with it being the only one in a handful of stores that Microsoft allows you to sell to.

Once again, I don't care about other people. I don't care what they think about devices or how they can or cannot use them. I buy shit for myself for my own reasons. I only trade my games into Gamestop I don't bother with person to person.
 
I just want to point this out. The iOS platform is obscenely successful, is on par to eclipse console gaming in numbers, and makes truck tons of money. Yet everything we consume on these platforms (and Android) is all digital with no option for physical. If these platforms weren't progressive, then why are they wildly successful?

They aren't. The most successful games you know of on ios bring in a fraction of the revenue a AAA console title does.

Rovios entire revenue for the year is $195 million. That's games AND licensing AND merchandise, etc.

Infinity blade 1 and 2 combined have 11 million downloads...and 60 million in revenue.

Activision/blizzard does 5 billion a year. Call of duty does a billion a year. GTA5 is the most expensive game in history at 270 million or so, and has already made that back on preorders.
 
Few weeks?!! What the hell. Would have thought it'd take a few hours, days at most. What do they need weeks for?

Depending on the depth of info, he is most likely seeking approval from several divisions to release company confidential information. I know it sounds silly but this is most likely happening. Goes on with my company when we release tech/patent info, and the lawyers do take awhile.
 

IN&OUT

Banned
buyadoggkso8.gif




The fact that games like Ryse are running well on actual hardware pretty much "reduces" this to an issue of additional effort.

Lol, scary shit :)

by the way, which movie this from?
 

watership

Member
If MS wants to stop getting "hate" they could stop fucking lying with everything they say. Oh wait, Albert said he will totally come back with all the correct answers in a few weeks!

Dude, it's not remotely lying. They designed a box and they're happy with the power they have. They are trying to say, don't worry, it'll be compatible to the PS4. But when people come out and say "40 PERCENT WORSE!!" How do you combat that? Across the forums people are actually thinking that PS3 games will look like PC games and Xbox One will look marginally better than 360. Everyone here has seen that rhetoric. Even if the systems are more similar now, there are still lots of ways that specs won't tell the whole story when it comes to actual real world output. If the GPU on the PS3 was so shit compared to the 360 and the memory split fucked them.. why did so many exclusive games look so great? BUT THE SPECS?!!
 
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