Still, we recommend a bit of caution before looking at those numbers and assuming that the PlayStation 4 will be a long-term, market-leading hit. A quick look at the history of console launch sales numbers shows little correlation between early sales numbers and longer-term success.
For instance, in 2000, the PlayStation 2 sold about 500,000 units in its first 24 hours on its way to capturing a huge majority of the console market in the coming years. In 2001, Nintendo's GameCube and Microsoft's Xbox sold 500,000 and 550,000 units, respectively, in their first week on store shelves, but neither console maker was able to ride launch sales to PS2-level post-launch success.
The Xbox 360 sold through a healthy 326,000 units in the US in the two weeks following its launch, according to NPD. Sega's Dreamcast, on the other hand, sold a larger 372,000 units in just four days of US sales, Sega said (in what was arguably a smaller market for video games at the time). Yet the Xbox 360 went on to be one of the most dominant consoles of its generation, while the Dreamcast languished on shelves and ceased production just over a year after launch.
The Wii U provides another good cautionary tale here. The system sold a solid 400,000 units in the US in its first week on store shelves last year, a figure that rose to 890,000 by the end of 2012, with Nintendo talking up retail shortages and sellouts at many retailers. When 2012 transitioned to 2013, though, the Wii U fell into what is increasingly looking like a death spiral of poor sales, poor support, and poor impact on the market.
